For the Saints to win...

[mjp]

OK. St Kilda beat Melbourne a couple of weeks back - Melbourne are playing much (MUCH) better right now than we have been lately. Yes- I'm blindly ignoring the fact that Melbourne decided to kick a LOT of points that day (21 to be precise - or the exact number of scoring shots the Saints had). Im doing this because:

#1 - A win is still a win.
#2 - St Kilda were Plus 62 for kicks - still the number 1 indicator in win loss (apart from score!) in the game.

St Kilda were - in fact - Minus 17 for inside 50s...and somehow given that number both Plus 91 for possessions and won the kicking efficiency stat. The Saints were also PLUS 42 for uncontested marks and Plus 72 for uncontested possessions.

An interesting set of numbers.

If they are able to do that against us this week - deny us the ball, pull our defenders UP the ground then kick into 1-v-1's (or worse!) then they will repeat their 55% forward 50 efficiency - an incredible number - and they will again win the game.

I know, I know. We've beaten up on the bottom sides etc - but be aware. These guys are playing in a bit of a unique style right now and if we let their kickers get the footy - Hill with 23 UP vs Melbourne, Wilkie with 20, Wanganeen-Milera with 17 - they are 100% going to win.

Be prepared for something you haven't really seen from any other oppo this year - they are going to try and OWN the footy for 4-quarters...they are gonna drag us up (and if Lobb vs Gunston is any indicator, we will 100% get dragged up) and they WILL SCORE. If this game doesn't make you nervous, it should.

[SquirrelGrip]

Be prepared for something you haven't really seen from any other oppo this year - they are going to try and OWN the footy for 4-quarters...they are gonna drag us up (and if Lobb vs Gunston is any indicator, we will 100% get dragged up) and they WILL SCORE. If this game doesn't make you nervous, it should.

So is the best strategy against dragging having the extra defender like Geelong? Against the Saints, that would free up an uncontested back, so I wouldn't have thought so. And remember the Saints actually beat the Cats this year.

Do we need an experienced defender like Jones or Duryea in to keep the structure and be our onfield defensive coach? Do we have Lobb, Darcy and Naughton up forward?

Or do we just back our mids to get on top and then just score over the heads of the Saints kickers in the defensive end...

[my plums]

Love your work every week mate!

[Happy Days]

I get what you’re saying but we just smashed these guys, even after losing our best guy (to that point in the season anyway) 5 minutes into the match.

We lose this or even don’t win it convincingly and it’s all over.

[mjp]

I don't think we can give them a spare. That's exactly what they want us to do.

We will play and extra at the stop and that will give them 1. I worry if we give them two we might never touch it.

[mjp]

I get what you’re saying but we just smashed these guys...

They aren't playing like that anymore.

They were trying to move the ball back then...now (well, against Melbourne in any case) they just 'kept it'.

Melbourne are the side most 'like us' in the comp. Mid and stoppage heavy team with inconsistent inside f50 processes.

I mean - we should be better than the Saints but that doesn't mean we're gonna win.

[Bornadog]

They aren't playing like that anymore.

They were trying to move the ball back then...now (well, against Melbourne in any case) they just 'kept it'.

Melbourne are the side most 'like us' in the comp. Mid and stoppage heavy team with inconsistent inside f50 processes.

I mean - we should be better than the Saints but that doesn't mean we're gonna win.

In the Hawks game, we were denied the footy for most of the match and it resulted in only 18 inside 50s for the first half. We changed a bit in the second half but were still down 15 overall.
In disposals they had almost 30 more and made their way down the ground with precision kicking and hitting targets. However, we beat them by 71 points last game, so have they improved that much to overtake us. Me thinks - NO

[Mantis]

They aren't playing like that anymore.

They were trying to move the ball back then...now (well, against Melbourne in any case) they just 'kept it'.

Melbourne are the side most 'like us' in the comp. Mid and stoppage heavy team with inconsistent inside f50 processes.

I mean - we should be better than the Saints but that doesn't mean we're gonna win.

Melbourne is averaging about 80 points per game, we're averaging 100.

We ****ing stunk against Hawthorn, it was by far our worst performance of the year... we had a couple of ''fringe'' players make critical errors which cost us dearly which should have them removed from the team, but also our major strength, our midfield played their worst collective game since the corresponding fixture last year. I'm saying that's an outlier and backing us in to belt up on a midfield that is far inferior to ours.

Understand we don't want their HB's playing keeping offs and would hope we have a plan for Sinclair and Nas, but all things being equal we should be winning this game by 30+.

[chef]

These are the type of teams we feast on, sadly it's the good ones we can't beat.

[mjp]

These are the type of teams we feast on, sadly it's the good ones we can't beat.

This is the thinking that will sink us.

[Sedat]

This is the thinking that will sink us.

Everything starts for us out of the middle. If Windhager can really get a hold of Richards (or Bont) and if English is passive and non-competitive at stoppages against Marshall, St Kilda can definitely blunt our key strength and conjure a winning score.

It's a good mental and physical test for us - players and coaches need to be 100% 'on'

[Bornadog]

Everything starts for us out of the middle. If Windhager can really get a hold of Richards (or Bont) and if English is passive and non-competitive at stoppages against Marshall, St Kilda can definitely blunt our key strength and conjure a winning score.

It's a good mental and physical test for us - players and coaches need to be 100% 'on'

The Hawks game was very different to other games we lost. We won the Clearances, including out of the Centre (12/9), we broke even in CP, and the ruck, but as the OP has said, we couldn't get our hands on the ball - especially in the first half and we couldn't get the ball inside 50. Hawks also pressured us similar to the Geelong game and some of our lesser lights turned the ball over.

If Saints deny us the ball, we could be in strife again. We need to come up with some tactics to make sure we don't let Saints chip it around and not let us near it and we must not turn the ball over at crucial stages..

[1eyedog]

Thanks we're definitely gonna lose.

Losing to St Kilda this week and effectively losing touch with any top 4 chance in conjunction with Bevo signing on would just about be the most Bulldog-like trifecta I could muster up.

[mjp]

Thanks we're definitely gonna lose.

I don't know about definitely.

I guess my point is 'everyone' is rolling out this "We beat the teams down the bottom but lose to the teams at the top" type narrative. But just like we don't have to always lose to the "top" sides, we don't always have to 'beat' the bottom sides. In St Kilda's last game they rolled out a different style of game that pull Melbourne apart and brought them undone. They have the potential to do exactly the same thing to us.

When I read things like "We beat them by 10 goals last time, they haven't improved that much"...well - maybe not. But you might only have to improve by 1% at a particular thing to turn a result around. If they get a good game from Marshall and hold firm at the contest and deny us the footy/drag our defenders up and kick their goals - and that's what they're gonna try to do - well, that's gonna be a problem. Remember we are most likely going to give them a spare by playing an extra around the contest...

I wouldn't want to give them a 5-1 start like we did against Hawthorn. They will genuinely spend the next 3/4's parking the bus and will hold on and win the game.

[Grantysghost]

I think the Saints are playing reasonable football -- then they go and get smashed by the Eagles.

The Demons have a horrible record up in Alice, I think Freo got them by 100 points previous.

We will win and win easily, problem is; they're crap and it doesn't tell us anything.