Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

[The Adelaide Connection]

Obviously sitting at 1-4 is not a good way to be, but we have probably as good a run as we could hope for in the six rounds to the bye and a real opportunity (if we can play like we did against Essendon and Sydney) to get our season back on track.

The run of six games (four of which are at Etihad) are:

Tonight v Carlton @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 7 v Gold Coast @ Ballarat (7 day break)
Round 8 v Brisbane @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 9 v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 10 v Collingwood @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 11 v Melbourne @ Etihad (8 day break)

Preseason I think we would have been banking on all of these aside Adelaide in Adelaide. I have heard a number of coaches mention (and tend to agree) that this caper is sometimes more about WHEN you play a team (due to form/momentum, injuries, how many days break etc.) than WHO you play. I would add the WHERE is also pretty significant.

Right now none of these teams, aside Collingwood, are travelling particularly well and (like us) could potentially either set up their season or completely fall off the cliff by the time they hit the bye. It is certainly worth casting an eye over who/where/when each team plays before they hit us.

Carlton (18th, 0-5)
Tonight v Us (6 day break)
Notes: Have been awful, but were significantly better against WC last week.

Gold Coast (12th, 3-2):
Tomorrow v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 7 v us @ Etihad (7 day break)
Notes: They ground to a halt against Brisbane after successive Perth games and are away again off a 6 day break against Adelaide who they have a horrible record against (never having beaten them and always copping a fair thrashing).

Brisbane (17th, 0-5):
Tomorrow v GWS @ Spotless (6 day break)
Round 7 v Collingwood @ The Gabba (8 day break)
Round 8 v us @ Etihad (with a 6 day break)
Notes: Hit two of the "form" teams before hitting us in Melbourne after a 6 day break.

Adelaide (8th, 3-2):
Tomorrow v Gold Coast @ Adelaide Oval (8 day break)
Round 7 v Carlton @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 8 v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 9 v Us @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Notes: Would probably rate their chances of banking a few big wins in the two before the Showdown. Only get a 6 day break after the Showdown before they get us- hopefully they are sore and cop a few suspensions too).

Collingwood (5th, 3-2):
Sunday v Richmond @ The MCG (4 day break)
Round 7 v Brisbane @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 8 v Geelong @ The MCG (7 day break)
Round 9 v St. Kilda @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 10 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Should find out if Collingwood are the real deal after a bright start, but I suspect that they are a pretty delicate flower that will wilt back to mediocrity if they drop a couple. Tough schedule in terms of breaks- be interested to see how many soft tissue injuries they get in this period.

Melbourne (14th, 2-3):
Sunday v Essendon @ Etihad (5 day break)
Round 7 v St Kilda @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 8 v Gold Coast @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 9 v Carlton @ The MCG (8 day break)
Round 10 v Adelaide @ Marrara (Darwin) (7 day break)
Round 11 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Aside the one game at the MCG they play "Home" in Darwin, at the Gabba, and three at Etihad (which they have a terrible record at). Could easily win 4 out of 5 or none. They hit us at Etihad after the tough Darwin conditions and a 6 day break.

So how many do we win? Can we win them all and hit the bye sitting at 7-4? Do we head in at 1-10 and start thinking about Lacocious? Or somewhere in the middle?

[Mofra]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

I voted 3, think it will be 3 or 4. At least 2 of the next 3, and Melbourne at Etihad I'd back us in (I'd tip the demons if it was at the MCG).

Adelaide just won without Rory Sloane and I think the Crouch brothers just have too much ball winning capacity with Libba out and Bonti down on midfield output.

Collingwood seem to have turned the corner although we matched it with them during the JLT series while we stuck with the rotation cap for 3/4ers.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

I went 3 as well. 2 we'd be favourite in (Carlton, Brisbane), 2 are 50/50s (GCS, Melbourne) and 2 we'd be distinct outsiders (Adelaide, Collingwood). If we can win 4 and be 5-6, that'd keep us around the mark at the half way point. That'd be something of a salvage job from our wretched start I suppose.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

I've got us down for four.

The Adelaide game is the only one I think we can't win, which is probably a trauma response to last year.

I also have us dropping the Pies game, but I am still unsure about this one. If we win the first three (as I optimistically expect) and they can only win one of four (which I can see happening especially as fatigue/injuries set in from their schedule) the gloss goes off and the blowtorch goes back on and they will be vulnerable.

[boydogs]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

2 of our 3 bad games have been on the road, so I'm confident enough to back us in for all the Melbourne games - 5/6

[Eastdog]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

Next 3 anyway:

Round 7 vs Suns = think a win
Round 8 vs Lions = think a win
Round 9 vs Crows = probably lose

Pies and Demons very winnable games I reckon at Etihad.

[Twodogs]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

I'm not confident in predicting which bulldog team will turn up let alone how the games will turn out.

[Rocket Science]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

I actually voted on 3 wins prior to the Carlton game, but on reflection fear it'll only be two from six.

Gold Coast (L) We're flaky enough right now that the travel factor's a pretty challenging one. Lynch might even outscore us on his own.
Brisbane (W) A timely gift, throw the Dog a bone.
Adelaide (L) Oh dear. We may hang with them for a half then watch the tide turn, crowd at their backs. Deja freakin vu.
Collingwood (L) They're playing with a certain motivation at the moment that we can only summon in fits and starts.
Melbourne (L) The supreme twats will set themselves for this and we'll probably fight it out but unfortunately oblige.

Keep getting games into the kids.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

*Updated after Round 6 results*

Our run:
Round 7 v Gold Coast @ Ballarat (7 day break)
Round 8 v Brisbane @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 9 v Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Round 10 v Collingwood @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 11 v Melbourne @ Etihad (8 day break)


Gold Coast (13th, 3-3):
Round 7 v us @ Etihad (7 day break)
Notes: Got absolutely belted in the first half (second quarter especially) before rallying and, at times, taking it right up to the Crows. The Crows were just able to keep them at arms length long enough and kicked away (but only won the second half by three points). Rory Thompson (who I really rate and who will be a prime candidate for Boyd) badly rolled his ankle, but they obvioulsy jabbed him up and restrapped it. I wonder if it blew up when it cooled down- if so he might need a week.

Brisbane (17th, 0-6):
Round 7 v Collingwood @ The Gabba (8 day break)
Round 8 v us @ Etihad (with a 6 day break)
Notes: Looked despondent after getting touched up by GWS. A five goal loss probably isn't too bad on paper (considering they had only scored 1.6 to half time) but no wins from six looked like it had taken its toll in the faces of a young team that were playing free spirited, exciting footy in the first few rounds.

Adelaide (5th, 4-2):
Round 7 v Carlton @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 8 v Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (7 day break)
Round 9 v Us @ Adelaide Oval (6 day break)
Notes: A few more injuries (Taylor Walker looks to have a mild hamstring strain and McKay has a hip/glute problem). Probably lucky that they get Carlton at home, which they can use to freshen up a few before the showdown.

Collingwood (10th, 3-3):
Round 7 v Brisbane @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 8 v Geelong @ The MCG (7 day break)
Round 9 v St. Kilda @ Etihad (6 day break)
Round 10 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Slip from 5th to 10th in the blink of an eye. Hung around for three quarters before getting pretty belted in the last. Ran out of petrol. Aish and Reid set for extended stints out. Like the Crows, lucky they run into a pretty listless opposition this week.

Melbourne (12th, 3-3):
Round 7 v St Kilda @ Etihad (7 day break)
Round 8 v Gold Coast @ The Gabba (6 day break)
Round 9 v Carlton @ The MCG (8 day break)
Round 10 v Adelaide @ Marrara (Darwin) (7 day break)
Round 11 v Us @ Etihad (6 day break)
Notes: Beat up a pretty insipid Essendon. How bad were they? Head over to https://discourse.bomberblitz.com for some in depth reviews and good times. Hogan has a bit of an ankle niggle, but it doesn't look serious. Expect Melbourne to come out this week and choke up a storm and get trounced by the Saints.

As an aside, if all results go "our way" next round and we are able to win by 200 or so points, we will find ourselves in the 8!

[LostDoggy]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

3 games to go till the bye. We've won the 3 we needed to and got ourselves back into the mix. The real test comes now though; our 4 wins this year have come against teams 14, 15, 17 and 18.

I'm really excited to see what we can do in the next 3 weeks. This Friday's match will on paper be the hardest of the 3. Realistically a win is improbable and a competitive showing would be encouraging. You do get the feeling,though, that there is a bit of belief building amongst our young fellas, who knows what they may be capable of. Can't wait.

[Eastdog]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

The next 3 weeks will be good tests. The past 3 weeks we have won against more 'weaker' opposition but nonetheless won all 3 which is huge. I was speaking to my mate yesterday and he reckons we are due for an away win in SA. Would be a huge scalp. We need to be much more competitive on the road as our losses this year so far on the road haven't been great at all.

Do you reckon Schache, Trengove might play?

[westdog54]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

Collingwood and Melbourne both remain absolutely gettable.

Adelaide will be frothing at the mouth after letting a Showdown slip through their fingers. This weekend will get ugly.

[Bornadog]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

Collingwood and Melbourne both remain absolutely gettable.

Adelaide will be frothing at the mouth after letting a Showdown slip through their fingers. This weekend will get ugly.

I voted wins in all but meant to put down Adelaide as a loss. I just hope we are competitive.

[1eyedog]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

Collingwood and Melbourne both remain absolutely gettable.

Adelaide will be frothing at the mouth after letting a Showdown slip through their fingers. This weekend will get ugly.

I agree. I think we can go to the bye at 6/5 and this would be a fantastic result and should have us clearly believing we can scrape into the top 8.

[Eastdog]

Re: Boom or Bust? The Run To The Bye

I agree. I think we can go to the bye at 6/5 and this would be a fantastic result and should have us clearly believing we can scrape into the top 8.

6/5 would be a great result going into the bye. We have a young fairly inexperienced side and injuries but if we get some of the experience back in Morris, Dickson and Picken that will help the youngsters a lot.