2025 Profile

[Rusty12]

15 Games in, key injuries to start, loads of travel and a tough draw, regardless, you are what you are.
There is a lot of talk that the dogs are a clearance team, and are very reliant on this. What does the data say?
Using standard deviations to filter the contenders from the pretenders.

Total offensive rating + total defensive rating:
4 Teams can win it
1 - Pies
2 - Dogs
3 - Crows
4 - Cats

Kicking quality:
1 - Pies
2 - Dogs

F50 Ground Balls Differential:
1 - Dogs
2 - Cats

Expected Score Differential:
1 - Pies
2 Crows
3 - Cats
4 - Suns
5 - Dogs

Scores from Turnover Differential:
1 - Pies
2 - Crows
3 - Cats
4- Giants
5 - Dogs
6 - Lions

Scores from Stoppage Differential:
1 - Dogs
2 - Cats

Scores from CBA Differential:
1 - Dogs
2 - Hawks
3 - Suns

Dogs are a lot more than a 1 trick pony.

[Bornadog]

Stats are showing we are right in it up to our eye balls.

[mjp]

Stats are showing we are right in it up to our eye balls.

Just a shame we lost to all the other contenders.

Our stats are influenced by good performances against the bottom block of teams...I get what the numbers say - and I'm not saying we shouldn't 'listen' to them - but until we can start putting some wins together against other top 8 sides it's all just stamp collecting.

Collingwood beat us.
Brisbane beat us.
Geelong beat us.
Hawthorn beat us.
Freo beat us.
Gold Coast beat us.
We haven't played the Crows.

That's the reality.

[comrade]

Just a shame we lost to all the other contenders.

Our stats are influenced by good performances against the bottom block of teams...I get what the numbers say - and I'm not saying we shouldn't 'listen' to them - but until we can start putting some wins together against other top 8 sides it's all just stamp collecting.

Collingwood beat us.
Brisbane beat us.
Geelong beat us.
Hawthorn beat us.
Freo beat us.
Gold Coast beat us.
We haven't played the Crows.

That's the reality.

Bont & Darcy.

[JackCJohnston2000]

Just a shame we lost to all the other contenders.

Our stats are influenced by good performances against the bottom block of teams...I get what the numbers say - and I'm not saying we shouldn't 'listen' to them - but until we can start putting some wins together against other top 8 sides it's all just stamp collecting.

Collingwood beat us.
Brisbane beat us.
Geelong beat us.
Hawthorn beat us.
Freo beat us.
Gold Coast beat us.
We haven't played the Crows.

That's the reality.

Well, it's one way to interpret the reality.

In all of those games, except maybe the Hawthorn game, we were absolutely in it. We were either the better team on the day or we played very well but lost to another great team in a close game.

The 4 points are all that matter, I know, BUT if we make finals (whether it's by bashing up on bad teams or not) then wouldn't you fancy our chances against those top teams if we had a shot at them again? Especially, touch wood, with Bont and Darcy this time? If our profile stacks up against the good teams, even in losses, that would say that if you play those games 10 times over, we probably win a good share of them.

[mjp]

...BUT if we make finals (whether it's by bashing up on bad teams or not) then wouldn't you fancy our chances against those top teams if we had a shot at them again?

Not really, no.

Our percentage is big because we massacre the bottom sides and it skews our stats.

Surely at some point we have to actually prove it on the grass...read my post about the last couple of minutes from Friday night...I have zero faith right now. If we cant win a home and away game, how in goodness name are we going to win a final.

As for the "If we play the game 10 times" quote - we've played SIX games against sides in the 8 and won ZERO. So I'm really unsure what you would consider a 'good share'...zero from six is where we are right now.

[JackCJohnston2000]

Not really, no.

Our percentage is big because we massacre the bottom sides and it skews our stats.

Surely at some point we have to actually prove it on the grass...read my post about the last couple of minutes from Friday night...I have zero faith right now. If we cant win a home and away game, how in goodness name are we going to win a final.

As for the "If we play the game 10 times" quote - we've played SIX games against sides in the 8 and won ZERO. So I'm really unsure what you would consider a 'good share'...zero from six is where we are right now.

We must just view football differently. Because to me, if you are within a couple goals, that means that the margin of victory (or loss) is incredibly small. In a 360 degree game with an egg-shaped ball and all sorts of weather conditions, are you telling me that that 2 accurate shots at goal or the ball bouncing a little more in our favour couldn't have swung the result?

And regarding the 10 games experiment, you can't lump all of our games together as one game. You have to look at each game, hell maybe each quarter, individually and inspect what went wrong and what could have swung the result. And in close, competitive games... it's often not very much at all. So if you play that game again 10 times, what are the chances that those 2 or 3 things happen again or that the opposition doesn't make any more mistakes? Unlikely, just based on chance. If you lose by 5 or 6 accurate shots (aka 30 points or more) than you need a lot more to go in your favour. But a 1 goal loss to the Pies? A 2 goal loss to the Suns? Even a 3 goal loss to the Cats and Freo? In those games, it wouldn't have taken much for those losses to be wins.

And that's without adding the Bont + Darcy combo to the mix which I think would increase our chances of turning things in our favour even more!

[Rusty12]

Just a shame we lost to all the other contenders.

Our stats are influenced by good performances against the bottom block of teams...I get what the numbers say - and I'm not saying we shouldn't 'listen' to them - but until we can start putting some wins together against other top 8 sides it's all just stamp collecting.

Collingwood beat us.
Brisbane beat us.
Geelong beat us.
Hawthorn beat us.
Freo beat us.
Gold Coast beat us.
We haven't played the Crows.

That's the reality.

100% agree. The win vs the Swans was huge in this context, especially if they come out and beat Dockers and other top 9 contenders for us.

Probably worth adding, that the reason our numbers are also so good, is that against the top 9 teams, although we only beat GWS, we were bloody close and did enough to win many of them, which only means something if we come and and do the job next time, like you said.
You can't be top 4, by just beating up on the weak, you still have to be close against the good ones, otherwise, you would sit 8-12, for example.

[Virgin-Dog]

Just a shame we lost to all the other contenders.

Our stats are influenced by good performances against the bottom block of teams...I get what the numbers say - and I'm not saying we shouldn't 'listen' to them - but until we can start putting some wins together against other top 8 sides it's all just stamp collecting.

Collingwood beat us.
Brisbane beat us.
Geelong beat us.
Hawthorn beat us.
Freo beat us.
Gold Coast beat us.
We haven't played the Crows.

That's the reality.

I know it doesn’t help once the final siren has gone, but Hawthorn was the only game I genuinely felt like we were soundly beaten.

Pies were the beneficiaries of obscenely one-sided umpiring. I don’t blame our boys for that

Brisbane we absolutely had hold of. Losing Harmes immediately and going in without Bont meant the win slipped out of our grip, but we win that if played now.

Geelong at GMHBA is never a fair fight.

None of these games have been played at Marvel. Brisbane was the only neutral game of the lot. I am confident we beat the Crows, GWS and Freo in our remaining games. Brisbane at the Gabba will be a massive task but I’m more confident going into that than I was for the Hawks game.

[mjp]

We must just view football differently. Because to me, if you are within a couple goals, that means that the margin of victory (or loss) is incredibly small. In a 360 degree game with an egg-shaped ball and all sorts of weather conditions, are you telling me that that 2 accurate shots at goal or the ball bouncing a little more in our favour couldn't have swung the result?

Once? Sure.
In isolation? Of course!

If you lose 6x games out of 6 though against the other contenders you simply can't put that down to the bounce of the ball or a couple of missed goals. Even if all 6 were losses by a solitary point you would have to say that 'something' is somehow broken.

Ultimately you can say we lost it rather than they won it. You can kind of say pretty much whatever you like. But when you look the score up after the game, there are winners and there are the other guys. And too often we have been the other guys. Until this stop happening, we need to stop drinking the "Bulldogs are a chance because the stats say so" kool-aid and remember that those of us who watch this team every week know our side BETTER than all of these numpty commentators...we know that if the game is close against a 'real' contender, we lose EVERY SINGLE TIME. And the margin will never be much - we're too good and too well organised to get 'smashed' - but we're not QUITE good enough to truly threaten.

[BiteNibbleChomp]

"We lost because of the umpiring." Umpiring can work against us in finals.
"We would have won if it was at Marvel." Finals aren't played at Marvel.
"Bont or Darcy would have flipped X result." No guarantee they won't get injured again.

With our form in all the games bar the Hawks one, we've proven we're good enough to challenge the top sides. But to date, we haven't actually beaten any of them. In order to win a flag we're going to have to beat a few. The loss column says 6 games, it doesn't make allowances for whatever the excuse of the week is.
We say we're top 4? Prove it. Beat Adelaide and Brisbane. Until we do I'm holding my horses on talk about the flag.

- BNC

[azabob]

We must just view football differently. Because to me, if you are within a couple goals, that means that the margin of victory (or loss) is incredibly small. In a 360 degree game with an egg-shaped ball and all sorts of weather conditions, are you telling me that that 2 accurate shots at goal or the ball bouncing a little more in our favour couldn't have swung the result?

And regarding the 10 games experiment, you can't lump all of our games together as one game. You have to look at each game, hell maybe each quarter, individually and inspect what went wrong and what could have swung the result. And in close, competitive games... it's often not very much at all. So if you play that game again 10 times, what are the chances that those 2 or 3 things happen again or that the opposition doesn't make any more mistakes? Unlikely, just based on chance. If you lose by 5 or 6 accurate shots (aka 30 points or more) than you need a lot more to go in your favour. But a 1 goal loss to the Pies? A 2 goal loss to the Suns? Even a 3 goal loss to the Cats and Freo? In those games, it wouldn't have taken much for those losses to be wins.

And that's without adding the Bont + Darcy combo to the mix which I think would increase our chances of turning things in our favour even more!

I liked your theory in 2024, but the final against the hawks really hurts your argument.

[JackCJohnston2000]

Once? Sure.
In isolation? Of course!

If you lose 6x games out of 6 though against the other contenders you simply can't put that down to the bounce of the ball or a couple of missed goals. Even if all 6 were losses by a solitary point you would have to say that 'something' is somehow broken.

Ultimately you can say we lost it rather than they won it. You can kind of say pretty much whatever you like. But when you look the score up after the game, there are winners and there are the other guys. And too often we have been the other guys. Until this stop happening, we need to stop drinking the "Bulldogs are a chance because the stats say so" kool-aid and remember that those of us who watch this team every week know our side BETTER than all of these numpty commentators...we know that if the game is close against a 'real' contender, we lose EVERY SINGLE TIME. And the margin will never be much - we're too good and too well organised to get 'smashed' - but we're not QUITE good enough to truly threaten.

Alright then.

Might as well just pack up our bags. Nice knowing you, 2025!

[JackCJohnston2000]

I liked your theory in 2024, but the final against the hawks really hurts your argument.

That's last year. We are such a different team this year, it's not even funny. Different in personnel and different in ability.

[Go_Dogs]

Dear mjp, please stop being pessimistic. Love, WOOF