Northern States player raids

[Sedat]

The narrative around player raids has usually been in relation to Victorian clubs raiding the clubs from the Northern States (especially Brisbane and Gold Coast). I wonder if this narrative will be completely flipped on its head in light of the COVID restrictions and general feeling of despair in Victoria. Surely both Brisbane and Gold Coast especially will be quietly sounding out Vic based players from other clubs, now that they have them as a captive audience in SE Qld for the next month. The attraction of playing and training through winter in sunshine and away from the glare of the Victorian media might start to look far more be enticing than the 'benefits' of being able to buy over-priced single origin coffee at an impossible to find cafe in some dirty laneway in the inner suburbs of Melbourne. Also the entertainment and hospitality industries, normally a great selling point of Melbourne, will be heavily compromised for at least the remainder of the year and possibly longer for indoor venues/concerts, making the outdoor/lifestyle benefits in winter of SE Qld and Sydney even more magnified as a result. And the previous great advantage for Victorian clubs of playing in front of big crowds has been taken away at least in the near future (and who really knows when crowd restrictions will be lifted in Victoria).

Thoughts?

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Northern States player raids

The narrative around player raids has usually been in relation to Victorian clubs raiding the clubs from the Northern States (especially Brisbane and Gold Coast). I wonder if this narrative will be completely flipped on its head in light of the COVID restrictions and general feeling of despair in Victoria. Surely both Brisbane and Gold Coast especially will be quietly sounding out Vic based players from other clubs, now that they have them as a captive audience in SE Qld for the next month. The attraction of playing and training through winter in sunshine and away from the glare of the Victorian media might start to look far more be enticing than the 'benefits' of being able to buy over-priced single origin coffee at an impossible to find cafe in some dirty laneway in the inner suburbs of Melbourne. Also the entertainment and hospitality industries, normally a great selling point of Melbourne, will be heavily compromised for at least the remainder of the year and possibly longer for indoor venues/concerts, making the outdoor/lifestyle benefits in winter of SE Qld and Sydney even more magnified as a result. And the previous great advantage for Victorian clubs of playing in front of big crowds has been taken away at least in the near future (and who really knows when crowd restrictions will be lifted in Victoria).

Thoughts?

I am not sure the Covid situation impacts player movement, especially given that all states are susceptible to spikes. The reality is if Victoria is impacted on a large scale moving forward beyond this year it will likely mean no AFL, rather than more player movement.

I think Brisbane and GC emerging as promising clubs (with the likelihood of a sustained run of finals) will be the thing that attracts players North. Spending five weeks up there in the sunshine in the middle of winter can’t be a bad advertisement and certainly won’t hurt.

Conversely, I think Adelaide and Sydney can look forward to being steadily plundered of emerging talent over the next few years. As I mentioned somewhere else, I hope we are whispering in the ears of Dogs supporting McAsey and McHenry.

[boydogs]

Re: Northern States player raids

Don't think the impact will be that pronounced as the restrictions will be very temporary and over well before next season starts

[Mofra]

Re: Northern States player raids

Suns were reported to have had cap problems the past two years so I'd guess that focus will be on retention. They may offload one of their more mature talls if rival offers are big (Collingwood would be desperate for anyone competent)

Lions have brought in a free players recently so may not be big players at the trade table.

[Sedat]

Re: Northern States player raids

Don't think the impact will be that pronounced as the restrictions will be very temporary and over well before next season starts

Not quite sure about the bolded bit. We are almost 6 months into this pandemic and Melbourne is in easily the worst state since it began. If I was a bookie, I'd frame odds of 100/1 of the current stage 3 lockdowns in Melbourne being relaxed after 6 weeks. If the stage 3 restrictions stay in place longer than 6 weeks (and there was strong talk today about that as a very real possibility), it would take lockdowns well into September. Going with that foreseeable timeline, I would suggest any unrestricted large crowd events being allowed to proceed in Melbourne for the remaining 3 months of the year are unlikely at best.

Community transmission and contact tracing in Melbourne is currently out of control and unable to be reined in, which makes it incredibly difficult to claw back the spread - rest assured the other states will have the borders closed shut to Victorians for a long time to come. If the spread cannot be clawed back, the restrictions on normal life in Melbourne will likely bleed into next year, and all the normal advantages of Melbourne life will be compromised. All the Vic based players currently in the hubs are about to get a 4-week taste of what life is like in the warmer states during the depths of winter, and without the likes of Tom Browne and Sam McLure trawling through their bins and stalking them like they would in Melbourne.

There are no guarantees we'll be free of this thing in 2021, or at least free of compromised life. I'd certainly be asking the question if I was in charge of list management of the northern clubs.

[jeemak]

Re: Northern States player raids

With reduced list sizes and comparable salary caps proposed for the near term I think teams will be just working their butts off to try and figure out who of what they have will remain at their clubs.

I understand your reasoning and it might just be that one or two players think in the terms you're referring to, though most likely in my view is clubs will work their backsides off to strike as many deals as they can with their elite talent without being overly strategic about it (including the norther clubs) and elite talent will want to secure the best deal they can as quickly as they can. Possibly afterwards we'll see clubs being strategic around what level of versatility they can implement across the rest of their list to provide sufficient cover for injuries etc. in the future.

[Happy Days]

Re: Northern States player raids

With reduced list sizes and comparable salary caps proposed for the near term I think teams will be just working their butts off to try and figure out who of what they have will remain at their clubs.

I've actually wondered about this - if this cull actually happens then inevitably there's going to be players cut from some clubs' worst 10 that are in other clubs' best 35. Is there going to be an additional management period to reconcile this? You'd have to assume that the 36th best player at GWS is better than the 35th best at Adelaide.

Would hate to think that the overall talent level of the competition goes down because some clubs are way better at identifying talent than others.

[AshMac]

Re: Northern States player raids

Interesting thought. I imagine the qld clubs would be using this opportunity to watch players much more closely. Potentially speaking with players.

Personally, I doubt Covid would have a huge impact on player movements. Agree with earlier comment that if there is a compromise on Victoria there is a compromise on the whole AFL.

[Bornadog]

Re: Northern States player raids

I think Sedat is making the point, living in Qld for a month or so may persuade some players that life there is better than living in a gloomy winter Melbourne. It may well play in the minds of some players. It will be up to QLD teams to see if they can take advantage of the situation and convince some players. Time will tell.

[Sedat]

Re: Northern States player raids

Footy Classified must be logged onto WOOF because they spent one of their segments discussing this very topic on their show tonight.

[Bornadog]

Re: Northern States player raids

Zorko thinks the same way:

WHY THE 2020 SEASON WILL "SIGNIFICANTLY" HELP BRISBANE ATTRACT TRADE TARGETS