Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

I think we are always a chance against anyone, when we are on we are on. We do have issues making it harder for ourselves than it needs to be though, and we need to bring it on the day more than most do.

We are a big chance against Geelong, but it also looms as a game where we battle away for ages and then they just steamroll us in the second half like they did from 2015-2017.

I was really pleased with how much quicker cross the ground we looked today and i think a big part of that was having a forwardline that wasn't trying to fit all of Dale/Lloyd/Wallis/Naughton/Bruce in the forward 50 at all times. I don't know if it was luck or design (basically can we replicate it) but we seemed to have so much more space today when we went forward.

A massive part of it is actually taking first or second opportunities to convert. As per my other posts in this thread, poor conversion and missed opportunities compounds congestion and pressure, and space dries up.

As for your first point, I agree totally. We are always a chance until we either show up not switched on which has a compounding affect across the entire ground resulting in our defence being caught pants down. Fix that and we're a different side and a worrying proposition to other teams.

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

I'm not deliberately going out of my way Danjul to be a contrarian, but I tend to think we're going to need more than those 10 contributors next week.

We seem to be a team or employ a strategy that requires all 18 to click, or at least not have 3 or 4 blokes not contributing, or making silly unforced errors.
Geelong is going to require a supreme effort from all our boys.
Case in point; we were fortunate in the first Qtr today when Vandemeer fluffed a kick inside 50, only for Hibberd to immediately turn it over to Bont, who then squibbed his kick inside 50 only to be fortunately gathered and ending in a goal to Mclean. We pull that sorta stuff against Geeling and not only will we not score, we will more than likely see them Tic-tac-toe all the way upfield for an easy score themselves.

Our win against Geelong last year was a monumental effort, and we only just got the choccies. I woke the whole house up when the final siren sounded!
.We're gonna need that same resolve and application again this week to do it again.
Should we manage it, it could really exponentially grow our side's belief heading into the final 3 rounds.

We should, as you say expect our 10 or so walk up starts in any other ckub to lead the way. ..I'm thinking though the acid test falls on the remaining guys to pull their weight, amplify their gane and to take their moments when they come. To that end I'm looking directly at at Mclean, Richards, Lipinski, Vandermeer, Gardner et al.

I'm not a huge believer in stats only as a major driver of performance, but I suggest you take a cursory glance towards some of the stats registered today to see how much of an incomplete performance today's effort was and how much improvement potential across the team we have - particularly in terms of pressure.

Today was good, but there's another level in this team that could easily be unlocked by more intent/ focus on the simple things.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

So if we go down by a couple of goals like we did against Port or a handful like we did against Brisbane does the site go into meltdown again?

Because to be honest the last few weeks have been pretty full on, and even at a point where we were a goal down at half time against a side above us on the ladder today it was starting to turn feral.

So in order to prepare us, what is a reasonable result next week?

I can’t really say it any better than YHF. For me we just need a four quarter effort. We can’t afford those horrible defensive lapses where we’re caught out of position and this will be helped by not blatantly turning the ball over. That first goal to Melbourne today was sadly an all too familiar sight. Our forward pressure is also not where it needs to be. These are all the same old problem areas we’ve been discussing for weeks. We have been getting it better bit by bit the last few weeks which is pleasing. But Geelong are on another level. They’re a well disciplined and coached team and they’ll murder us for 10 minutes of bad football. I like the direction we’re going. With Vanders coming in we look a lot faster suddenly with him, JJ, Richards and Smith. We suddenly look less vanilla. The forward line is still a work in progress but a four quarter effort in defensive transition and work rate would be what I’d like to see. That’s my no1 pet peeve.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

I don't think today's game was an example of our worst footy. I get Melbourne didn't make the most of opportunities at times however, if they don't score a goal they get to keep the forward half pressure on as it doesn't go to the centre of the ground for a reset. A reset gives us a chance to actually reset and without seeing it like we did against Brisbane it's hard to know what the outcome would be.

It's actually something I've been thinking about, bad kicking leading to behinds begets more bad kicking leading to behinds. The ball stays in the forward half and the issue compounds largely because congestion and pressure builds. We've been the masters of this in recent years however, today in the third we showed ourselves that if you kick straight you can actually build momentum and that's a massive positive to me (again, see what Brisbane did to us).

I'm really looking forward to hopefully seeing a settled side have a crack at decent opposition after a couple of good weeks. We've had good weeks this year but our side hasn't been settled, and without wanting to sound like Bruce the pervert dickhead I just get a feeling we are primed to hit our straps and run over some opposition.


Hunter embedding himself back into the team is a massive positive, his style versus that of Laitham and Smith outside of the contest gives us good contrast and flexibility. As I've said in another post I reckon seeing these guys move the ball freely and run hard gives JJ some impetus to get in on the act.

I don't disagree much with what you've written. However much of what we served up in the 2nd Qtr was reflective of what has occured when we've lost games based on 10-15 minutes of gobshite football.

Bevo has lamented such periods against Brisbane, Port, and St Kilda.
It didn't cost us today, both because Melbourne were shit and failed to gap us the way the above sides did when we momentarily faltered, and because we adjusted, mitigated the reasons they were getting on top and as you pointed out, and we capitalised when we again wrested control of the game from them in the 3rd.
Really pleased with Bevo's moves at half time switching Bruce and English . Both were stinking it up big big time, and were the weak links in their respective roles that were killing us.
I know some here have fumed at our ruck strategy, but to me it's a very sound response from Bevo.
Timmy stank in the 2nd Qtr, Pruess was serving his mids up on a platter. Bruce was just as useless as a forward target.

Bevo isn't putting Bruce or Dunks (And I'm not responding to you here Jeemak, on this point) in the ruck because it's some sort of masterstroke move, he's doing it because its a weakness in our game.

He knows full well we don't have positional supremacy here and he employs Dunks or Bruce there to reduce the likelihood we get nailed from our weakness. It's good coaching; risk mitigation.

He also knows Tim is a talent and he wants to genuinely grow him, so he can utilise the around the ground competitive advantages he does posess. But when Tim concedes the ruck like he did today, he has to do something, otherwise the game slips away from us like it did against Port and Brisbane.

I think Tim can respond well next week against Geelong. He certainly nailed his moments after half time

We were very good for most parts today, we will need to be better again this Friday.

You're right Jeemak, Hunter is crucial, and a JJ like today is too.
So is accurate goalkicking.

If Tim and Bruce can perform their primary roles this week, as ruck and key forward respectively, we'll be off to a good start, and Dunks too will be the better for it, as it will allow him to contribute in his primary capacity, which only further helps our cause We don't want to employ him as a risk mitigator if we don't have to.

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

I can’t really say it any better than YHF. For me we just need a four quarter effort. We can’t afford those horrible defensive lapses where we’re caught out of position and this will be helped by not blatantly turning the ball over. That first goal to Melbourne today was sadly an all too familiar sight. Our forward pressure is also not where it needs to be. These are all the same old problem areas we’ve been discussing for weeks. We have been getting it better bit by bit the last few weeks which is pleasing. But Geelong are on another level. They’re a well disciplined and coached team and they’ll murder us for 10 minutes of bad football. I like the direction we’re going. With Vanders coming in we look a lot faster suddenly with him, JJ, Richards and Smith. We suddenly look less vanilla. The forward line is still a work in progress but a four quarter effort in defensive transition and work rate would be what I’d like to see. That’s my no1 pet peeve.

Thanks.

It's an interesting thing if I'm gauging your thoughts correctly, Geelong needs to pretty much play perfectly to beat us convincingly. Or they need to cover most bases to ensure they're competitive enough to beat us. We on the other hand need to be perfect to compete?

If so I don't reckon that's far off from what we have shown to date, but like you I reckon we're heading into the zone of fixing some of those issues and being harder to play against. The stuff out the back in particular is an organisation issue that is largely dependent on what happens on the ground with the players, intensity around the contest fixes the vulnerabilities we showed against Brisbane in particular for a very short time.

The reality is in my view, we're an inexperienced side batting a bit above average now and aiming to bat higher again and this should be cause for excitement and not the negativity we've all been guilty of displaying over recent weeks. If we hadn't have won the flag in 2016 this team would be causing ripples of excitement through the competition and that's something we need to consider around here.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

I'm not a huge believer in stats only as a major driver of performance, but I suggest you take a cursory glance towards some of the stats registered today to see how much of an incomplete performance today's effort was and how much improvement potential across the team we have - particularly in terms of pressure.

Today was good, but there's another level in this team that could easily be unlocked by more intent/ focus on the simple things.

Do not disagree with anything here.
Today's performance is not dissimilar to our games against Port, Saints or Brisbane. In all of them we had one 10 or 15 minute period where we stank, off of the back of either losing ascendancy at the source and/ or unforced errors (including poor goal conversion).

We still had some passengers today. Can't have that against Geelong this week, or against West Coast in 3 weeks for that matter.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

**Disclosure....for my disjointed and verbose posts tonight**
It's been a big day.
5:30 wake up, to get kids ready for my son's under 8.5's footy match for a 9 a start that was 45 min drive away, then the 2nd leg to Gold Coast to watch the Dogs then home, and subsequent consummation of wine..

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

Do not disagree with anything here.
Today's performance is not dissimilar to our games against Port, Saints or Brisbane. In all of them we had one 10 or 15 minute period where we stank, off of the back of either losing ascendancy at the source and/ or unforced errors (including poor goal conversion).

We still had some passengers today. Can't have that against Geelong this week, or against West Coast in 3 weeks for that matter.

Well maybe we can.

We beat a team in the eight with those issues, surely we can compete like we have in the last few weeks with those same issues but if we take our chances we might just win.

Against Port we had major lapses compounding missed opportunities, and lost by a couple of goals. We even could have pushed Richmond in the first half if we didn't butcher a couple of clear opportunities to stay in touch.

I guess what I'm getting at is that not everything needs to be perfect and we just need to hang in there against any opposition. We generate so many opportunities as a team game to game, like today in the third if we take them, unlike in the first, we impact the nature of the contest.

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

**Disclosure....for my disjointed and verbose posts tonight**
It's been a big day.
5:30 wake up, to get kids ready for my son's under 8.5's footy match for a 9 a start that was 45 min drive away, then the 2nd leg to Gold Coast to watch the Dogs then home, and subsequent consummation of wine..

You're awesome mate. Don't apologise and don't blame the wine.

Did anyone ever ask Chris de Burgh why he made the tune Don't Pay The Ferryman? No they didn't, so if he doesn't have to explain himself you shouldn't have to either.

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

You extended your post you cheeky bugger.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

Well maybe we can.

We beat a team in the eight with those issues, surely we can compete like we have in the last few weeks with those same issues but if we take our chances we might just win.

Against Port we had major lapses compounding missed opportunities, and lost by a couple of goals. We even could have pushed Richmond in the first half if we didn't butcher a couple of clear opportunities to stay in touch.

I guess what I'm getting at is that not everything needs to be perfect and we just need to hang in there against any opposition. We generate so many opportunities as a team game to game, like today in the third if we take them, unlike in the first, we impact the nature of the contest.

Do not greatly disagree.

But I think it's essential that mistakes we do make are not prolonged.
We can't afford a 10-15 minute lapse this week.
I'm really looking forward to the opportunity this game holds for guys like English, Bruce, Richards, Gardner and McLean.

[jeemak]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

You extended your post you cheeky bugger.

I'm glad you did, that was an excellent post mate.

[Danjul]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

I'm not deliberately going out of my way Danjul to be a contrarian, but I tend to think we're going to need more than those 10 contributors next week.

We seem to be a team or employ a strategy that requires all 18 to click, or at least not have 3 or 4 blokes not contributing, or making silly unforced errors.
Geelong is going to require a supreme effort from all our boys.


Our win against Geelong last year was a monumental effort, and we only just got the choccies. I woke the whole house up when the final siren sounded!

I had a good seat at the game against Geelong last year and they looked ordinary, with occasional patches which kept them dangerous. But it was a game where we had a balanced team, and occasional errors were not disasters. A lot of Geelong’s play occurred deep on the wing ( in front of where I was sitting). We played more 1 on 1 than usual so they couldn’t control the flow the way we allowed them to in the earlier game. The Dogs tried to control opposition players, not open ground.

I am confident that our best dozen are better than theirs. That’s a good start.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Why are people picking Melbourne to WIN?

Thanks.

It's an interesting thing if I'm gauging your thoughts correctly, Geelong needs to pretty much play perfectly to beat us convincingly. Or they need to cover most bases to ensure they're competitive enough to beat us. We on the other hand need to be perfect to compete?

If so I don't reckon that's far off from what we have shown to date, but like you I reckon we're heading into the zone of fixing some of those issues and being harder to play against. The stuff out the back in particular is an organisation issue that is largely dependent on what happens on the ground with the players, intensity around the contest fixes the vulnerabilities we showed against Brisbane in particular for a very short time.

The reality is in my view, we're an inexperienced side batting a bit above average now and aiming to bat higher again and this should be cause for excitement and not the negativity we've all been guilty of displaying over recent weeks. If we hadn't have won the flag in 2016 this team would be causing ripples of excitement through the competition and that's something we need to consider around here.

No we certainly don’t need to be perfect to compete. But we need to play with a higher intensity for longer periods than Geelong due to:
- our game style with revolves around numbers behind the ball that gets out of a contest through multiple handballs (often attracting pressure and resulting in the sky bomb inside 50)
- our poor inside 50 cohesion
- our poor foot skills

Ultimately it’s simply just minimising the periods where our intensity/pressure is nowhere to be seen. I get we’re inexperienced but I don’t take that as an excuse to slack off every game for a quarter. We’ve seen it too frequently this season and it’s not like it’s the first season we’ve been doing it. The important thing is to minimise the damage when things aren’t going our way. Because things won’t go our way for 4 quarters a game. But at the moment when things aren’t going our way, we’re getting obliterated with zero defence when we don’t have the ball. We did a better job of that yesterday which was pleasing but Melbourne did butcher a lot of opportunités so we’ve still got some ways to go. As others have said, we’re not looking for perfection but we all want to see signs of improvement. The frustration comes when you see the same things occur over and over again to the point where you wonder if the club is even aware of the problems - stupid to think I know but how many times can you watch a team get caught out the back or the oppositions midfield waltz around without even the slightest attempt to tackle?

The last two weeks have been a positive sign that improvement is coming. I suppose this week it’ll be a good opportunity to put it to the test against the competitions best. We stank it up real bad for 15 minutes each against Brisbane and port and that was all that was needed to convincingly put us away. I’d like to see us minimise those periods against the cats but also minimise the damage during those periods. Because I look at our list compared to Geelongs and, even though I’m biased, I don’t think we’re much worse on paper. We can go with them, we just need discipline and intensity for sustained periods.