2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

**Rocket Science** · 09-09-2008, 08:36 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

DID YOU KNOW?

- If selected, the Bulldogs' Robert Murphy will rack up his 150 game milestone this Friday eve.

- The Bulldogs and Swans have opposed eachother on 143 occasions, with the Dogs holding a narrow 73-to-69 advantage over their north of the border foes, in addition to one draw...However the two clubs have faced off at the MCG just once previously, resulting in the Dogs' memorable 35 point qualifying final win in 1997.

- By virtue of successive home and away wins over the Swans in 2008 the Dogs broke a five-year old hoodoo versus the club, having previously failed to register a victory over Sydney during any of the 2003-to-2007 seasons inclusive while racking up an average losing margin of 35 points during that span.

- Not only have the Swans lost their previous three games at the MCG by an average margin of 31 points, but they enjoy just a 35.5 all time winning percentage at the ground, with 50 wins from 141 encounters...By comparison, they hold a more flattering 55.5 winning percentage at the SCG.

- The Swans are participating in a club record 6th consecutive finals series in 2008.

- Since the existing finals format began in 2000, only two teams that have lost qualifying finals in week one, have lost again in semi-finals in week two: Port Adelaide (beaten by Hawthorn) in 2001, and West Coast (beaten by Collingwood) last season.

- This match pits the AFL's 2nd ranked attack (Dogs: 2506 points for) versus the league's 4th ranked defence (Swans: 1863 points against).

- Stretching back to their round 16 loss to Geelong, the Bulldogs have failed to win more than two quarters of football in any of their past 7 matches...A feat they previously managed to achieve on 9 of 15 occasions this season.

- Sydney's 2008 home and away campaign parallels that of the Dogs in some respects whereby a strong first half preceded flagging fortunes in the 2nd half...The Swans went undefeated through 10 of their first 13 encounters, only to win just 3 of their following nine, while the Dogs remained undefeated in 13 of 15 before slumping to just 2 wins from their next 7.

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WHERE THEY'RE AT:

BULLDOGS:

We learned last Friday that favourable recent outings against an opponent count for little in the heat of the September cauldron, and it's a lesson the reeling Dogs must heed this week in order to salvage their season.

This year's dual home and away victories over the Swans are memories as distant as the Dogs' irrepressible but seemingly forgotten early season form. The double chance is the last remaining semblance of fruit from those earlier exploits, having since pissed away their form, their nerve, large chunks of their respect from those outside the club, and not insignificant amounts of goodwill from those within. It remains to be seen whether they do likewise with their remaining opportunity to atone.

Doing so will constitute a mammoth team-wide undertaking for a club living with an elephant in the room they tried their best to politely ignore for the better part of two months before it finally became restless and embarked on a destructive rampage last Friday night.

Yet as long as they're still alive, the club must resist the urge to obsess about what's gone wrong and expend its energies on rediscovering what needs to go right.

SWANS:

If it's any consolation to the Dogs, the Swans also know a thing or two about going off the rails. But what might be of more comfort to the Dogs, or alternately less, is that the Swans feel they're back on track. If this is genuinely the case, it might serve as an instructive example of what's possible if one perseveres...or alternately cold comfort in that the Swans look back in town while the Dogs are still stuck in the sticks.

Once a virtual lock for an all-valuable top-four finish, the Swans stumbled in the home stretch culminating in an eventual 6th place finish, forcing the club to kick off their finals campaign fighting for their collective lives. Like the Dogs, the critics have been out for the Swans of late...too old, too slow, had their day. But rather than shrink in the face of adversity the battle hardened club resurrected the sort of fortitude that has seen it compete in six straight finals series, running over the top of another club not short on character themselves, the Kangaroos, thus earning another chance to progress against a younger, greener, less seasoned opponent who's seemingly on the ropes and simply awaiting the inevitable knockout blow.

So, what's not to like about Sydney's chances this Friday night?

**Rocket Science** · 09-09-2008, 08:37 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

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KEY DUELS:

HUDSON versus JOLLY
Jolly is perhaps the AFL's best performed ruckman you don't know about...He averages more hitouts per game (23) than any ruckman bar the dynamic duo of Cox and Sandilands, and is almost as active around the ground as his West Australian counterparts...Hudson's tap work pales in comparison, averaging just 13 hitouts per game, but his ability to win contested footy and bullock through packs to clear a path for his mids is invaluable to a team whose hard ball winning ability has been found wanting of late. With Hudson evidently labouring, countering Jolly looms as a hefty and not to mention pivotal task which could prove decisive as part of the broader midfield battle. The Dogs may be forced to rob Peter to pay Paul, extracting Minson from his key forward post in order to alleviate Hudson's workload.

HARRIS versus HALL
The volatile Sydney spearhead's been dogged by controversy this season but the distractions obscure the fact he's still a vital cog in the Swans' attack...In terms of goals per game in 2008 Hall ranks 9th leaguewide, equal or better than the likes of Riewoldt, Burton, Richardson and Mooney and appears in fairly good nick of late, snaring 3 or more goals in 5 of his past 6 outings...With O'Loughlin out the Swans will be even more determined to make use of Hall, hence the job of natural opponent Brian Harris, arguably the only Bulldog with the tools and the temperament to go with Hall, becomes crucial in helping to stifle the Swans' scoring abilities. Despite the stats, Harris wasn't entirely disgraced versus a rampant Franklin last week and while his disposal can be haphazard, his rebounding abilities are underrated, although his decision making and overall impact might be better served if Hall lingers closer to goal than further upfield.

COONEY versus MCVEIGH
The Dogs' coaching staff haven't made a habit of hard negating jobs on opposition mids of late so they're unlikely to begin now, opting for a freewheeling head-to-head approach which may ordinarily suit Cooney just fine, but he'll need to win enough of the ball and more importantly damage the opposition with it to make the trade-off worthwhile, particularly against a much improved McVeigh who's ignored solely at the Dogs' peril...Cooney, with 23 goals in 2008, is noted for his ability to go forward. Well his potential no frills opponent has him covered with 32 majors to his name. McVeigh also compares well with Cooney in goal assists (16 apiece) and inside 50's (67 to 70), so there should be no excuses for mystified looks in the coaches box if and when the Sydney #3 begins exerting his influence on the contest.

CROSS versus J.BOLTON
A scrappier, more displeasing to the eye donnybrook you could barely hope to imagine...Neither Cross nor Bolton accrue many style points nor likely have an NFL punting career ahead of them, but both excel at sacrificing tooth and nail for the greater
good. Cross (along with numerous armchair strategists) might be hoping he isn't employed to fill the hole in front of Hall, a la Franklin last week, but if asked again you know he wouldn't hesitate. However if ever there was a midfield brigade Cross was made for playing against, it's surely the in-and-under Swans...While not quite the prolific ball-winner Cross might be (Bolton averages 20 to Cross' 26 touches per game), Bolton arguably makes better use of his possessions, supplying his side with 97 inside 50's this season to Cross' 57. Nonetheless, the term 'hard ball' is likely to feature prominently in the wash-up of this contest and few amongst the 44 combatants involved boast an appetite for such like these two.

BOYD versus KIRK
Expect another no holds barred tussle through the middle likely measured more accurately in bruises rather than possessions. With the Swans' backs to the wall last weekend Kirk was inspirational in helping to drag his team over the line versus the Roos and has a lot to do with the newfound spring in Sydney's step. Expect Kirk to be at the bottom of every pack exerting his influence in places most Dogs' haven't really dared to venture of late...Boyd isn't one to shirk an issue, but like most of his compadres had his colours lowered versus the Hawks, participating freely in the turnover procession. It's unlikely Boyd will put together back-to-back shockers but while he's a little more polished than Kirk with the football he'll be expected help his team get their hands on it first to bring the Dogs' runners into the game.

MORRIS versus GOODES
Perhaps in response to the latter day absence of O'Loughlin, the supremely versatile Goodes has plied his trade as a forward of late, and to good effect, chiming in with goals in 9 of the Swans' last 11 games including 14 majors in his last 4 outings. Goodes naturally accrues less of the ball than he might further upfield but his combination of size, athleticism and smarts can pose considerable match-up issues...Enter Dale Morris who albeit slightly smaller in stature has the perfect physical tools to counter such an opponent. Despite his height, Goodes generates many of his scoring opportunities from ground level, where the nimble Morris can more than compete, however he should also be able to match Goodes in the air. On-paper attributes are one thing however and as usual Morris' fortunes partly rest on that of his midfield. Goodes is as talented as Morris is determined and this looms as a compelling battle...Alternately, should Goodes spend significant amounts of time through the midfield, the Dogs' don't have a ready-made opponent but may choose to deploy Cross or Boyd for periods.

HARGRAVE versus O'KEEFE
No longer does Ryan O'Keefe fly under the radar these days. Few work harder than the strong marking Swan who's become a leader both on-field and off, and is routinely amongst his clubs' best. O'Keefe ranks 17th leaguewide for inside 50's and is as adept at setting the table for teammates as he is of capitalising himself, although he could be more accurate in front of goal (23 goals, 25 behinds in 2008)...Hargrave has the engine to compete with O'Keefe but must be wary of his tendency for needless frees against, particularly in marking duels versus his stronger, aerially smarter opponent, where he may be prone to being exposed if repeatedly left one-out.

MURPHY versus C.BOLTON
The dynamic Murphy has enjoyed arguably his most influential season for the Dogs, no mean feat post-knee injury, but has visibly worn down during the 2nd half of the season curbing both his output and the team's. In cold hard terms Murph's accruing fewer touches, dragging in fewer marks, providing fewer inside 50's and vitally contributing fewer goals having notched just 9 majors over his past 11 games compared to 22 over his previous 11, but despite ebbing contributions still serves as a vital linkman for his club going forward and a difficult match-up for the best of opponents...He'll earn every touch he gets with accomplished stopper Craig Bolton riding shotgun all night and should the dogged Swan manage to quell Murphy's involvement it'll rob the Dogs' forward line of it's richest avenue of supply given Murphy leads his team for inside 50's (125).

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THE DOGS WILL WIN IF...

They can firstly shrug off the mental damage done by the last week and the last two months respectively.

Secondly, they can prevail if they somehow remember how to win their own ball, and then remember how to use it without placing it on a platter, garnish included, for the opposition.

Early season strides made in the clubs' contested possession work combined with bold and efficient ball use were reflected in results, while their sloppy 2nd half efforts in these areas saw comparable outcomes. Much has been made of team structure and available personnel but unless there's a teamwide re-commitment to these two cornerstone pursuits it won't matter who's playing where, the cause will be lost. This is particularly so versus the Swans, and doubly so in a cut throat final where appetite for the contest will be constantly tested.

To quash niggling doubts it's vital early opportunities are capitalised upon.

Nothing short of a teamwide lift in confidence and application is required. It's a big ask, but not beyond the realm of possibility.

THE SWANS WILL WIN IF...

They simply show up if the troubled Dogs' waltz out yet again having failed to shake their shellshocked trance. That scarcely requires mention.

However the Swans can also win even if the Dogs choose to compete with them on terms that suit the battle hardened Sydneysiders. It'll certainly make for a more absorbing contest if the Dogs roll their sleeves up, but it's also comfortable territory for the Swans who won't flinch in the face such a challenge. Winning that a battle will be the difference between a famine or a feast for the respective forward lines, and the key Swan forwards have the capacity to trouble the Dogs' defence in the air if granted one-out supply, and this tendency may be pressed home further should the likes of Jolly, Everitt and Richards drift forward.

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THE VERDICT:

Though not saying much the Dogs will certainly be better than they were a week ago. However it's been some time since the club fired it's best shots and a combination of the occasion, the timing and the opponent will prove too great a hurdle.

The Swans to win by 27 points to book a date with oblivion versus the Cats.

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**The Coon Dog** · 09-09-2008, 08:44 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

^^^^

Its post like these that make this such a fantastic website. Great work RS & I think we all hear your pain. Hopefully this Friday night a win will bring the elixir we all crave.

**LostDoggy** · 09-09-2008, 08:48 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

I have read this twice and its a vastly more consuming read than the footy records or the papers and I must thank you for your time and effort.
After reading all the match ups in the Swans forward line I think we don't have many other options than the ones that you have predicted. I particularly liked the Hargrave versus O'Keefe duel and in a round about way that might be the most critical one against the Swans forwards.
With all that in mind would would we look to bring in Everitt this week as someone capable of playing on both talls and smalls ?

**LostDoggy** · 09-09-2008, 08:50 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Great read, thanks

**BulldogBelle** · 09-09-2008, 08:58 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

RS, great read & thanks for taking the time & effort to write that up. Good description on the match ups - heard Aker this evening on SEN and they were stirring him up about a possible match-up on his best buddy Crouch. Back slapping stuff. Still makes me laugh seeing Aker slap him accross the back.

Jus one thing I would change is the verdict - and make it Dogs by 27 points.

**Mantis** · 09-09-2008, 09:05 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Good stuff RS.

Your tone is much the same as mine at present. The pricks have sucked the life out of us yet again, but I am sure come Friday night we will be as perky as ever just waiting for it to happen all over again.

I think last week I said that it was a massive test for us, well we failed that one miserably. It's hard to know how the group and the individuals within the group will bounce back. If we do we will ponder 'Why didn't we play like that last week' and if we don't it's just all doom and gloom.

Well onto the game...

We must, I mean must control the midfield. We need to at worst break even in the rucks. We need to win the hard ball and we have to dispose of it efficiently. We have to run, run, run and then run some more. Even if there is no reason, run to create, run to assist, run just because you can, just ******* run!!!

We had far too many good (I use that term loosely) midfielder's down last week and surely they can't put in two stinkers in a row, especially in finals, but who knows??

I suppose we need to wait to see what changes are made to see if the backline is strengthened, but it doesn't look like it so we will have to hope and pray that Morris, Lake and Hargrave can play out of their skins and that the forwards/ midfields apply enough pressure on their direct opponents.

I am almost certain we will play number's behind the ball again, but who fills this role is anyone's guess. I don't think Cross can fill the role again, he just isn't creative enough with the ball, but I am not sure who else we can use. We can't allow Hall, Goodes and co to have space to work.

Up forward we need Welsh, Johnson, Murphy and Hahn, pretty much the whole forwardline to have an impact. They need to compete strongly, take marks, chase, tackle, all the things we expect from experienced players.

Well that does it....I'm still not sure if we will win, I bloody hope so, but I awaiting the team selection's to see what sort of structural/ personnel changes we make before I decide.

C'mon Dogs... Show some fight!!!

**Beast** · 09-09-2008, 09:10 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Marvelous, amusing work of analysis RS.

**LostDoggy** · 09-09-2008, 09:10 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Brilliant well organised stuff with alot of detail and depth Rocket Science!- I'll repeat what others have said previously....these pregame reports should shame some of the so called media pundits. Would'nt be surprised if they plagiarise them quite regularly. And they get paid for it....

**Bornadog** · 09-09-2008, 10:52 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

A great read RS, enjoyed it all except the last sentance ie who will win

I think if the Swans try to stretch us, Hargrave will have to pick up the extra tall. Ray played on O'keefe last time and did well, do you see this happening again?

**Sedat** · 09-09-2008, 11:12 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Who do we match up on in Sydney's defence to create some genuine mis-matches? Apart from C Bolton, the rest of their backline has been very shaky this season. If we can bring it in quick enough (assuming we win our fair share of the midfield battle), I can see our mid sized forwards having a field day against the likes of Barry, Roberts-Thompson and Bevan. Plenty of scrutiny on our backline but I would back ours to a man compared to Sydney's any day of the week on form this season.

**Mantis** · 09-09-2008, 11:23 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Originally posted by Sedat

Who do we match up on in Sydney's defence to create some genuine mis-matches? Apart from C Bolton, the rest of their backline has been very shaky this season. If we can bring it in quick enough (assuming we win our fair share of the midfield battle), I can see our mid sized forwards having a field day against the likes of Barry, Roberts-Thompson and Bevan. Plenty of scrutiny on our backline but I would back ours to a man compared to Sydney's any day of the week on form this season.

I thought the same against Hawthorn who's defence read's just as bad.

It didn't quite eventuate that way did it.

**Sedat** · 09-09-2008, 11:28 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Originally posted by Mantis

I thought the same against Hawthorn who's defence read's just as bad.

It didn't quite eventuate that way did it.

Reckon you're selling Hawthorn's defence short. Whilst some of them aren't what you'd call tight checking, they have provided great rebound drive this season - Birchall, Ladson, Guerra, Gilham, Brown/Hodge and Croad represents a pretty fair backline, much stronger both on paper and in form than LRT, Barry, Malceski, Bevan, Kennelly and Crouch.

Hawks were smart to identify Gilham as not having a decent match-up against us, so they replaced him with another defensive small forward - C Stokes, Rioli and Osborne did a sensational job pressuring our defensive ball carriers on Friday night. You could tell they put a lot of work into preventing Gilbee and Hargy from creating as much as they normally do off half back.

**Mantis** · 09-09-2008, 11:34 PM

Re: 2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

Originally posted by Sedat

Reckon you're selling Hawthorn's defence short. Whilst some of them aren't what you'd call tight checking, they have provided great rebound drive this season - Birchall, Ladson, Guerra, Gilham, Brown/Hodge and Croad represents a pretty fair backline, much stronger both on paper and in form than LRT, Barry, Malceski, Bevan, Kennelly and Crouch.

But weren't you talking about our forwards being able to beat their opponents in duels when the ball comes inside our forwardline not about the rebound they provide?

If the ball had came into our forwardline with any sort of flow or precision last week we could have cut the Hawthorn defence to shreads, but it didn't. It came in hap-hazardly and the Hawthorn defence was made to look great. When we had clean ball (yeah it was rare) we actually looked ok.

I feel the same this week, difference being that the rebound wont be as good as Hawthorn mostly because Kennelly and Malceski are stuggling with injury.

2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

2nd SEMI FINAL - MATCH PREVIEW - DOGS v SWANS

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