Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

[mighty_west]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

Don't get sucked into the media hype. Gary Lyon and BT were both KPF they go on and on about the big forwards. Last year weren't we the highest scoring team in league? if not were we definitely second. Yes a big guy can help, use one of the kids, but i don't believe A KPF are as important as everyone makes out.
How many goals did franklin kick in the GF? I can't think of the last time (recently) someone kicked a bag of goals in the GF.
I believe that making the most of the opportunities in front of goal. Locking the ball into the forward 50 and forwards putting pressure on their opponents will be super important if we are to take the next step.

I have actually changed my view over time over this issue, we were also the highest or second highest in 2006, we fell down at the last hurdle because of our size i believe.

It's ok in the home & away, but in the crunch finals time footy, you are playing against the best defenders, the best midfields, the tall forward line is not the be all & end all, but adds that extra option we haven't had, if we get clogged up in the midfield, one option is to kick long, too many times we have done that, to a Robbins, to a Johnson, and they seem to be picked off far too easily, the ball gets out as quick as it bombs in.

Buddy didn't kick alot of goals in the granny, but at least they had those options of himself & Roughead, they take the best defenders, the opposition has to match up against that, our opposition teams have more options to cover our forward line, because of that less option we have.

History shows
2000 Essendon - Lucas, Lloyd
01/02/03 Brisbane - Lynch, Bradshaw, Brown
04 Port - Tredrea
05 Sydney - Hall
06 West Coast - Lynch
07 Geelong - N Ablett, Mooney
08 Hawthorn - Roughead, Franklin

One of things i have been crying out for, was a contested style to our game to compliment our fast running game plan, we have made alot of steps to fix that, with the inclusion of the likes of Callan, Addison, Morris, they are not out & out stars, but grunt players that compliment our fast runners, it gives us more options to one, use our game plan, and two, to match up on opposition sides, we just lack that one or two talls up forward, it seems to be the missing piece to the puzzle....just wished we could fast track Cordy & Roughead & Grant etc.

[Mantis]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

I voted 2011-12.

By that time I would hope that a couple of Grant, Cordy, Boumann and Roughead are playing a key role up forward.

We should have one of the best midfields going around with both Griffen & Cooney rated in the best 10 players in the comp with solid back up from Higgins, Ward, etc.. Our ruck stocks should also be ok with Minson as the no 1 man ably backed up by Cordy & Roughead.

Our key defenders should be Williams & Everitt with back up from Lake who by then is over his brain fades (I can hope) and is still playing a key role.

We should still have solid contibution from the likes of Murf, Cross, Boyd, Gilbee, etc..

I still think we will be thereabouts over the next couple of years, but I still think we are a couple of years off... Hopefully I am proven incorrect on the first count, but hopefully correct on my prediction.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

I have actually changed my view over time over this issue, we were also the highest or second highest in 2006, we fell down at the last hurdle because of our size i believe.

It's ok in the home & away, but in the crunch finals time footy, you are playing against the best defenders, the best midfields, the tall forward line is not the be all & end all, but adds that extra option we haven't had, if we get clogged up in the midfield, one option is to kick long, too many times we have done that, to a Robbins, to a Johnson, and they seem to be picked off far too easily, the ball gets out as quick as it bombs in.

Buddy didn't kick alot of goals in the granny, but at least they had those options of himself & Roughead, they take the best defenders, the opposition has to match up against that, our opposition teams have more options to cover our forward line, because of that less option we have.

History shows
2000 Essendon - Lucas, Lloyd
01/02/03 Brisbane - Lynch, Bradshaw, Brown
04 Port - Tredrea
05 Sydney - Hall
06 West Coast - Lynch
07 Geelong - N Ablett, Mooney
08 Hawthorn - Roughead, Franklin

One of things i have been crying out for, was a contested style to our game to compliment our fast running game plan, we have made alot of steps to fix that, with the inclusion of the likes of Callan, Addison, Morris, they are not out & out stars, but grunt players that compliment our fast runners, it gives us more options to one, use our game plan, and two, to match up on opposition sides, we just lack that one or two talls up forward, it seems to be the missing piece to the puzzle....just wished we could fast track Cordy & Roughead & Grant etc.

All valid points, but none of them kicked bags tho. IMO we should be trying to fast track some of these kids (especially the stronger bodied ones). If we play a tall forward, our opposition are going to have to put a key defender on them, giving johnson, murph, welsh, minno, hill a lesser backman. All of these blokes can take a grab.

One of our problems has been that we do bomb the ball in far far far to often and it easy for good teams to pick it off. If there isn't a big target there don't bomb it in lower your eyes spot up a target, spread the forwards out split the defenders.

Can't wait for the real stuff to start... bring it on..

[LostDoggy]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

I went 2010 but in all honesty it is near on impossible to predict. I believe our list is shaping up nicely however 3 or so injuries to key players and any team would find it hard the comp is that close.

[soupman]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

I voted 2011-2012.

Whilst we will likely see Hudson, Welsh, Akermanis (definitely), Eagleton and Johnson all retire by then, I feel the following happening would counter that and improve us enough to win the granny.

Our core group of players are all still of an age where they can still consistently play well. This group includes Daniel Cross, Matthew Boyd, Robert Murphy, Lindsay Gilbee, Daniel Giansiracusa, Ryan Hargrave, Brain Lake and Dale Morris.

It is reasonable to assume that all the following will be atleast good AFL players, with some possibly breaking into the very good and even elite categories (This is based on past performances): Shaun Higgins, Callan Ward, Josh Hill, Dylan Addison, Tim Callan, Will Minson and Jarrod Harbrow.

Both Cooney and Griffen can both still get better, which could make them the scariest midfield duo in the comp. Even if they don't quite improve too much more, Cooney has already shown that he is one of the comp's best midfielders and Griffen has shown the ability to influence games and perform in the big matches. If you add these two to our ideal future midfield, containing Cross, Boyd, an improved Higgins, Hill, Addison, Harbrow and any other players, our midfield starts to look very dangerous around 2011.

Now the key position players. Williams has shown he has what it takes, and if he can overcome injuries we may just have one of the premier CHB's in the league. Jarrod Grant has shown that he has a lot of potential in a key forward spot, as has Cordy. Whilst at this stage it is just potential, it would be reasonable to assume that one of them would atleast develop to a point where they could provide us with a taller target up forward. Other wildcards are Jones, Boumann, O'Shea and Tiller.

Then there are the players that are yet to play much in the seniors, but can be considered likely as a group to contribute 2-6 AFL quality players. This group covers heaps of positions, and is made up of blokes like Sam Reid, Guy O'Keefe, Brennan Stack, Malcolm Lynch, Andrejs Everitt, Jordan Roughead and Easton Wood.

Then you are left with blokes like Mitch Hahn. Will he still be able to perform at the same level in 2011/2012? I'm unsure, but I'm not going to rule him out.

So basically I see our lineup in 2011 looking something like this:

FB: 38. Dale Morris, 36. Brian Lake, 25. Ryan Hargrave
HB: 9. Lindsay Gilbee, 12. Tom Williams, 33. Tim Callan
C: 7. Shaun Higgins, 4. Daniel Cross (c), 20. Josh Hill
HF: 40. Jarrod Harbrow, 2. Robert Murphy, 14. Callan Ward
FF: 13. Daniel Giansiracusa, 1. Jarryd Grant, 49. Ayce Cordy
Ru: 27. Will Minson, 17. Adam Cooney, 16. Ryan Griffen

Int (from): (Highly Likely): 5. Matthew Boyd, 22. Dylan Addison

Possible: 3. Andrejs Everitt, 8. Mitch Hahn, 11. Sam Reid, 18. Brennan Stack, 19. Liam Jones, 23. Jordan Roughead, 29. Easton Wood, 30. Guy O'Keefe, 32. Jarrad Boumann, 35. Stephen Tiller, 39. Malcolm Lynch, 42. Liam Picken, 44. Paul O'Shea

[Ozza]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

2011


Potential best 22:

F: Harbrow Grant Lynch
HF: Murphy Cordy Hill
C: Higgins Cooney Ward
HB: Gilbee Williams Everitt
BP: Morris Lake Hargrave
R: Minson Cross Griffen
I: Roughead Tiller Hahn Addison

Good spine, great forward pressure through Harbrow and Lynch (even Grant), a rock solid defense that depends on a lot of things going right in the next two years.

By this time a few developing teams will also be pushing for glory so it’ll be interesting how it pans out.

God, I hope we win one soon.

Geez I'd hope Tiller wasn't in our best 22 in 2011. Would probably hope we were a bit stronger in the ruck than the big Minnow also. Don't get me wrong - I love the big Minnow as a cult figure - and he's not a terrible player - but I don't think he and Tiller would ever play vital roles in a premiership.

[Sedat]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

Everybody craps on about how close Collingwood pushed the Cats in the 2007 PF like it was some mythological feat of wonder - they were 3 goals behind with 10 minutes left, and got a couple of dodgy frees which helped them get to within 5 points. We pushed the Cats every bit as hard in 2008 PF (perhaps more so), were also 2-3 goals down with 10 minutes left, the only difference being we got the rough decisions against us instead of the other way around, which blew the margin out a little.

Reason for the above is that I believe we are a lot closer to a premiership that most people think. We suffered an awful case of stage fright in that first final, but then knuckled down to some hard contested finals football in the next 2 weeks. Realistically, it was a shocking case of the yips in front of goal that stopped us from making a GF, something that none of us under retirement age have witnessed. I hope that first final in 2008 will be used as motivation by the club like Hawthorn's terrible loss against North in the 2007 finals was used by the Hawks inner sanctum.

People talk about our lack of key forwards. Yep, a Buddy or a Fev would be very handy but we don't have them on our list. Irrespective, we still generated more than enough wins to make top 4, and more than enough scoring opportunities in the PF to beat the best defensive unit in the competition. The reality is that the media would have hailed the 'Minson-as-a-key-marking-forward' experiment as a resounding success had he not missed two regulation set shots in the PF after taking strong contested marks.

Nine of our top 10 in last year's B&F were all under 27 - we have as exciting a core of under 23's as any team in the competition, the reigning premier included. Johnson is still close enough to his best, as are the likes of Welsh, Aker and Hudson. The under 25 set will only continue their improvement.

Injuries permitting, I think we can win the flag in any of the years from 2009-2012. The sky was supposed to fall once we lost our 'big 6' from a few years ago - Grant, Johnson, Smith, Darcy, Brown, West - only one remains yet we are a far stronger squad now. I'm confident that we can push the two teams ahead of us and manitain a level of improvement to keep us ahead of the rest.

[Scraggers]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

Everybody craps on about how close Collingwood pushed the Cats in the 2007 PF like it was some mythological feat of wonder - they were 3 goals behind with 10 minutes left, and got a couple of dodgy frees which helped them get to within 5 points. We pushed the Cats every bit as hard in 2008 PF (perhaps more so), were also 2-3 goals down with 10 minutes left, the only difference being we got the rough decisions against us instead of the other way around, which blew the margin out a little.

Reason for the above is that I believe we are a lot closer to a premiership that most people think. We suffered an awful case of stage fright in that first final, but then knuckled down to some hard contested finals football in the next 2 weeks. Realistically, it was a shocking case of the yips in front of goal that stopped us from making a GF, something that none of us under retirement age have witnessed. I hope that first final in 2008 will be used as motivation by the club like Hawthorn's terrible loss against North in the 2007 finals was used by the Hawks inner sanctum.

People talk about our lack of key forwards. Yep, a Buddy or a Fev would be very handy but we don't have them on our list. Irrespective, we still generated more than enough wins to make top 4, and more than enough scoring opportunities in the PF to beat the best defensive unit in the competition. The reality is that the media would have hailed the 'Minson-as-a-key-marking-forward' experiment as a resounding success had he not missed two regulation set shots in the PF after taking strong contested marks.

Nine of our top 10 in last year's B&F were all under 27 - we have as exciting a core of under 23's as any team in the competition, the reigning premier included. Johnson is still close enough to his best, as are the likes of Welsh, Aker and Hudson. The under 25 set will only continue their improvement.

Injuries permitting, I think we can win the flag in any of the years from 2009-2012. The sky was supposed to fall once we lost our 'big 6' from a few years ago - Grant, Johnson, Smith, Darcy, Brown, West - only one remains yet we are a far stronger squad now. I'm confident that we can push the two teams ahead of us and manitain a level of improvement to keep us ahead of the rest.

I would like to agree with you, but the fear of another year like 2007 lurks in the back of my mind ... I too believe we are a strong possiblity to play in the big dance this year, but do the squad?

[LostDoggy]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

I too believe we are a strong possiblity to play in the big dance this year, but do the squad?

Believe me they do.

[alwaysadog]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

Believe me they do.

... and they thought we would be close in 2007.

I don't own a crystal ball, I don't believe in them, that's probably why.

I can't be sure of the lineup for round one this year let alone 2 years ahead, but I'm certain things won't go in straight lines with the devt of our young guns. Why should this years and last years group be so different. If we are going to rely on this year's crop to get us that extra edge then 2011 is too soon.

On the other hand a couple of ordinary performances in practice matches have sobered up a lot of people's expectations for 2009. We were within striking distance last year, but couldn't close the gap.

If we begin well this year we have some extra depth so we could go close, then it depends on imponderables some of which we couldn't identify now if we spent a week trying.

Getting close will depend on the side improving through the season as the hawks did. It would also need as near to an injury free season as is possible and for the ageing legs in the side to stand up. So it's an unlikely possibility in either case as was the hawks win in 2008.

[The Pie Man]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

Geez I'd hope Tiller wasn't in our best 22 in 2011. Would probably hope we were a bit stronger in the ruck than the big Minnow also. Don't get me wrong - I love the big Minnow as a cult figure - and he's not a terrible player - but I don't think he and Tiller would ever play vital roles in a premiership.

I thought Tiller did ok against the Swans in the finals last year, and to play well in finals says to me you're an ok player. Tall and versatile too, I hope he can play a big role for us.

Looking at the lists of big forwards for premiership teams in the last 10 years, I look at Lynch with WCE who was just there, Nathan Ablett did eff all (kicked 3 with the heat largely out of the game by just before half time) & Adelaide won without Modra (they still had Robran and how Edwards kicked 5 I'll never know) so it can be won without a big man dominating....just that it helps your cause.

[alwaysadog]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

I thought Tiller did ok against the Swans in the finals last year, and to play well in finals says to me you're an ok player. Tall and versatile too, I hope he can play a big role for us.

Looking at the lists of big forwards for premiership teams in the last 10 years, I look at Lynch with WCE who was just there, Nathan Ablett did eff all (kicked 3 with the heat largely out of the game by just before half time) & Adelaide won without Modra (they still had Robran and how Edwards kicked 5 I'll never know) so it can be won without a big man dominating....just that it helps your cause.

TPM are you trying to let the facts get in the way of the argument. Everyone knows that you have to have terrific big forwards to win flags. You have to have them to score big, scores, just forget we had little trouble scoring last season without them, and had a great efficiency conversion rate.

My take would be that a really good key forward can make an alright side look much better and if you've got them it helps but as you've shown they aren't an absolutely necessary precondition to winning a flag.

I don't think we lost the prelim to Geelong because we lacked talls up forward. But don't let's look for rational explanation, everyone knows you need good tall forwards to win flags... unless you look at the evidence.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Re: Taking that next step - to a Premiership!

The two performances from key forwards in grand finals that stand out to me are Dermie in 84 (when he kicked 8) and Gazza on 89 (when he kicked 9).

Oh yeah. They both lost.