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Match Preview – round 14: Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn.
Saturday 4th July, 7:10pm Etihad Stadium.
Last time they met:
2nd Qualifying Final 2008
Hawthorn 18.19.127 d Western Bulldogs 11.10.71
Form:
An interesting time for both clubs to meet. This time last year the Dogs looked shaky and somewhat fatigued leading into and coming out of the mid-season break, and the Hawks were building strongly. This year the opposite is the case, with the Hawks battling both injuries and consistency, whilst the Dogs look to be trending upwards.
The Hawks are obviously well down on their Premiership form of 2008 having lost 3 out of their last 4 games culminating in a shock loss to the Eagles last weekend. They now find themselves 6 and 7 and in danger of missing the 8.
No doubt injuries have played a part in Hawthorns shaky season to date, however it is their intensity and work-rate especially in second halves which has let them down in the past month.
Against an undermanned Lions defense, the Hawks were shut down in the middle after half time and therefore their height advantage up forward was negated.
The Dogs after a mini slump of 3 losses in a row, have rebounded strongly following a heartbreaking 2 point loss against the unbeaten Cats. Since then the Dogs have won four straight and have for the most part looked back to their running best.
Key Injuries:
The Dogs have one definite and significant loss with Giansiracusa out and possibly another with Gilbee no certainty to play .The Hawks injury woes continue missing Rioli and Williams and possibly Dew and Lewis.
Key Match ups:
Morris v Roughead
Lake v Franklin
On paper these two look like mismatches in the Hawks favour (as its proved to be the last time we met). However the key to this working is how hard we pressure and stifle the Hawks run out of the middle. If we can contain their midfield from the clearances and slow their forward entries then guys like Hargrave, Harbrow and Gilbee (if he plays) will be able to work as 3rd man in.
Picken v Mitchell
Crucial to our ability to stop the run is to negate their pure ball winner Mitchell. Boyd did this successfully against Mitchell during the home and away match last season. However I think Boyd's value to the team right now is to play a positive role himself. Which leaves Picken the choice to try to shut down Mitchell
Boyd v Sewell
Sewell is one of the few Hawks to be playing at the same level as last year. Boyd has himself gone up another gear. Boyd has the strength and tenacity to beat Sewell to go with Sewell and shades Sewell with his speed and use of the ball.
Eagleton v Bateman
Bateman is a crucial runner, and Eagleton has the speed, to go with him, and also the skills to hurt the Hawks and perhaps force Bateman to pay him some respect. I've liked Eagleton's defensive efforts this year, and he will need to employ it to full effect to curb Bateman's influence.
Hill v Hodge
Hodge sets up play for the Hawks and also performs well as third man into marking contests. I think Hill has shown alot more defensive pressure in his game of late, and also has the aerial skills to compete with Hodge. On the flipside Hill's attacking skills may force Hodge to be more defensively minded and may inhibit his run off the half back line.
Minson/Hudson v Campbell/Renouf
Minson's form in recent weeks has been great, and Hudson is as consistent as ever with his second and third efforts in stoppages. Hudson I feel will play more of the centre work and try to stop them from getting a quick release to outside runners, and Minson could spend more time up forward - potentially forcing them to position Campbell deep in defense for large portions of the game.
Where will it be won and lost?
Simply put if Hawthorn secure quick and regular ball from the centre and if our forwards are not applying consistent pressure, then Morris and Lake won't stand a chance and neither will the Bulldogs.
If on the other hand the Dogs can win the majority of the clearances and in turn run and carry quickly through the Hawks zone we have the spread of finishers to put the Hawks to the sword.
Mitchell and Bateman cannot be allowed to have an influence in the middle, and Hodge must not be able to play as the loose man in defense.
Summary
Whoever plays on Sewell and Mitchell, they must beat them to give us the edge and allow us to do as the Lions did in denying quick supply of the ball to Roughy and Buddy.
We will need someone to step up in Giansiracusa's absence and ensure effective entry into our forward fifty.
Furthermore we will need to use the ball a heck of alot better than we did against North otherwise the ball will transfer with speed to Franklin and Roughead with results similar to that of last year's Qualifying final loss.
Finally when the Hawks do win possession of the ball we need to deny them the opportunity to move it on quickly, and force them to make mistakes under pressure. Similar to what we achieved against them down in Tasmania last year.
I think that we will be too strong for the Hawks in the middle, and as the game wears on our fitness will become important as they have several underdone players which should see us be able to move the ball freely through the centre.
Providing our use of the ball is better than it was against North and we do not allow the Hawks too much room to move quickly when they have the ball I think we can win this one and cement our top 3 position.
Dogs by 30 points.
Saturday 4th July, 7:10pm Etihad Stadium.
Last time they met:
2nd Qualifying Final 2008
Hawthorn 18.19.127 d Western Bulldogs 11.10.71
Form:
An interesting time for both clubs to meet. This time last year the Dogs looked shaky and somewhat fatigued leading into and coming out of the mid-season break, and the Hawks were building strongly. This year the opposite is the case, with the Hawks battling both injuries and consistency, whilst the Dogs look to be trending upwards.
The Hawks are obviously well down on their Premiership form of 2008 having lost 3 out of their last 4 games culminating in a shock loss to the Eagles last weekend. They now find themselves 6 and 7 and in danger of missing the 8.
No doubt injuries have played a part in Hawthorns shaky season to date, however it is their intensity and work-rate especially in second halves which has let them down in the past month.
Against an undermanned Lions defense, the Hawks were shut down in the middle after half time and therefore their height advantage up forward was negated.
The Dogs after a mini slump of 3 losses in a row, have rebounded strongly following a heartbreaking 2 point loss against the unbeaten Cats. Since then the Dogs have won four straight and have for the most part looked back to their running best.
Key Injuries:
The Dogs have one definite and significant loss with Giansiracusa out and possibly another with Gilbee no certainty to play .The Hawks injury woes continue missing Rioli and Williams and possibly Dew and Lewis.
Key Match ups:
Morris v Roughead
Lake v Franklin
On paper these two look like mismatches in the Hawks favour (as its proved to be the last time we met). However the key to this working is how hard we pressure and stifle the Hawks run out of the middle. If we can contain their midfield from the clearances and slow their forward entries then guys like Hargrave, Harbrow and Gilbee (if he plays) will be able to work as 3rd man in.
Picken v Mitchell
Crucial to our ability to stop the run is to negate their pure ball winner Mitchell. Boyd did this successfully against Mitchell during the home and away match last season. However I think Boyd's value to the team right now is to play a positive role himself. Which leaves Picken the choice to try to shut down Mitchell
Boyd v Sewell
Sewell is one of the few Hawks to be playing at the same level as last year. Boyd has himself gone up another gear. Boyd has the strength and tenacity to beat Sewell to go with Sewell and shades Sewell with his speed and use of the ball.
Eagleton v Bateman
Bateman is a crucial runner, and Eagleton has the speed, to go with him, and also the skills to hurt the Hawks and perhaps force Bateman to pay him some respect. I've liked Eagleton's defensive efforts this year, and he will need to employ it to full effect to curb Bateman's influence.
Hill v Hodge
Hodge sets up play for the Hawks and also performs well as third man into marking contests. I think Hill has shown alot more defensive pressure in his game of late, and also has the aerial skills to compete with Hodge. On the flipside Hill's attacking skills may force Hodge to be more defensively minded and may inhibit his run off the half back line.
Minson/Hudson v Campbell/Renouf
Minson's form in recent weeks has been great, and Hudson is as consistent as ever with his second and third efforts in stoppages. Hudson I feel will play more of the centre work and try to stop them from getting a quick release to outside runners, and Minson could spend more time up forward - potentially forcing them to position Campbell deep in defense for large portions of the game.
Where will it be won and lost?
Simply put if Hawthorn secure quick and regular ball from the centre and if our forwards are not applying consistent pressure, then Morris and Lake won't stand a chance and neither will the Bulldogs.
If on the other hand the Dogs can win the majority of the clearances and in turn run and carry quickly through the Hawks zone we have the spread of finishers to put the Hawks to the sword.
Mitchell and Bateman cannot be allowed to have an influence in the middle, and Hodge must not be able to play as the loose man in defense.
Summary
Whoever plays on Sewell and Mitchell, they must beat them to give us the edge and allow us to do as the Lions did in denying quick supply of the ball to Roughy and Buddy.
We will need someone to step up in Giansiracusa's absence and ensure effective entry into our forward fifty.
Furthermore we will need to use the ball a heck of alot better than we did against North otherwise the ball will transfer with speed to Franklin and Roughead with results similar to that of last year's Qualifying final loss.
Finally when the Hawks do win possession of the ball we need to deny them the opportunity to move it on quickly, and force them to make mistakes under pressure. Similar to what we achieved against them down in Tasmania last year.
I think that we will be too strong for the Hawks in the middle, and as the game wears on our fitness will become important as they have several underdone players which should see us be able to move the ball freely through the centre.
Providing our use of the ball is better than it was against North and we do not allow the Hawks too much room to move quickly when they have the ball I think we can win this one and cement our top 3 position.
Dogs by 30 points.
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