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Match preview Round 15
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood
Friday 7.40 @ Docklands
Last time we met:
Round 13, 2008 @ Docklands
Western Bulldogs 15.9.99 d. Collingwood 13.11.89
The Form Guide:
3rd Western Bulldogs10-4, 130.4%
Five wins on the trot by an average margin of 10 goals and our last loss was in a strong performance against Geelong. The only question mark against our white-hot form is that none of the wins have been against sides currently sitting in the top eight.
4th Collingwood 9-5, 118.4%
Six wins in a row by an average margin of over 7 goals. They were struggling before that but I think a lot of it had to do with their injury list. Much like our form the only doubts would be about the quality of their opponents with their biggest scalp being the 8th placed Bombers.
The Stats:
Western Bulldogs
1st- goals per game
2nd- disposals per game
1st- Skill errors per game
1st- team to opponent first possessions difference
Collingwood
1st- kick-to-handball ratio
15th- contested possessions
4th- least opponent contested possessions
2nd- Skill errors per game
The top 2 teams when it comes to skill errors per game but these stats don’t tell the full story. Collingwood prefer to kick the ball more than any other which leads to more errors. Our combination of a high amount of disposals and high risk game style also naturally leads to a few more errors.
Collingwood games seem to include a small amount of contested possessions for either side.
The Selection Table
Western Bulldogs
Williams to come in to combat one of their tall forwards and free up Morris and Shaggy to combat their dangerous small forwards. Sam Reid looks the likely out with a groin problem.
Collingwood
I would say unchanged or a defender out for another runner like Clarke.
The key match-ups:
Didak v Picken
Didak is just about the hottest player in the league at the moment. Malthouse ensures that Didak is given a few spells on the bench, allowing him to have explosive bursts to break tags. He has racked up his 3 career highest disposal games in his last 3 games. Last week he spent the early stages off the game working off half back as a “quarter back” to tune himself into the game before moving to his familiar wing/half forward role. Morris has a great history against him but Didak covers a lot more ground now and I wouldn’t want Morris spending so much time out of defence. I would give Picken first crack due to what he has shown against the likes of Harvey, Pearce and Deledio. Picken might also play on Davis, Swan and Lockyer depending on rotations.
Davis v Morris
Another one who is covering more ground and his early season form was particularly impressive. I am a little worried about Davis being too clever and agile for Morris. He can rotate with Picken depending on whether Davis and Didak are playing primarily forward or in the midfield.
Medhurst v Shaggy
Shaggy killed him last time, keeping him quiet while creating a lot of rebound. Eade is using Shaggy superbly, consistently finding a mismatch to exploit and I see Medhurst as the one this week.
Harbrow v Dick
Hopefully Harbrow can continue his form and offer us drive from defence.
Cloke v Williams
Cloke returned to form last week. He spends a lot more time outside 50 than Anthony and I would prefer Lake closer to goal. Hopefully Tom has the fitness to be competitive and ensure Cloke isn’t too much damaging.
Anthony v Lake
I think Anthony is a bit of a one trick pony, playing as a traditional full-forward. He doesn’t get it much but is effective when he does, being a great kick for goal (not so much of late). I think he is the type of opponent that suits Lake (tall who does nothing offer than kick a couple of goals), allowing him to zone off and take marks from opposition kicks inside 50.
Swan vs Boyd/Cross/Picken
I would team tag Swan depending on midfield rotations. Boyd has been great going one on one with elite midfielders this year. Cross or Picken to pick him up when he is being rotated off a wing/flank.
Pendlebury vs Cooney/Collingwood's anti-tag ways
Collingwood don't seem to like tags, allowing their midfielders greater freedom. Hopefully Pendlebury is still underdone and Cooney and/or Griffen can take advantage of their freedom. I really think we can hurt them here.
Fraser/Brown v Hudson/Minson
The ruck duel is going to be a battle of extremes with the athletic Fraser up against the physical duo in Hudson and Minson. Fraser was great last week and will spend the vast majority of time in the ruck with Brown there to give him the occasional breather. Hudson and Minson need to physical dominate Fraser and rotate to keep up with him around the ground. It will be a good test for Will with his recent improvement as a mobile ruckman.
Harry O v Johnno
Harry O is one of the better defenders going around and it should be a good match up. Johnno’s work rate of late has been great and he needs to continually provide a target.
Maxwell
He is great at zoning off his opponent and taking marks from opposition kicks. His opponent needs to be accountable because he can be very damaging when allowed to fun free. I think they would love to get him matched up on Hahn.
Lockyer
2nd half specialist if ever there was one. One of the many Collingwood players that can rotate into the forward line and can be very damaging if he gets under your guard.
Where it will be won or lost
Both sides are in great form but also looking for a big scalp to further prove their worth. Both teams have multiple avenues to goal, so getting match ups right will be enormous.
The main worry I have about Collingwood is their ability to rotate players like Didak, Davis, Lockyer and Thomas through the midfield and forward line, which makes it very difficult for their minders. Picken might end up with various opponents depending on the rotations
I think we can exploit their backline with our small forward line. Presti has been in fine form and while he can play on a variety of opponents, he is probably more suited to KP forwards and Nathan Brown will struggle to find a match up. Neither are the type of tall defender that can zone off their opponent. Keeping a close tab on Maxwell will be crucial.
Their midfielders work very hard, however I think their disposal can be suspect at times and we need to punish their turnovers. While they aren’t slow, I think we can damage them with our pace if we are confident enough to take risks and run hard.
As I mentioned earlier, Collingwood don't seem to rate tags, allowing their midfielders great freedom but I think damaging/explosive type midfielders really punish this. Griffen and Cooney need to take advantage of the rare freedom, I think they will have big games.
The Summary
I was worried about the 6 day break but the ability to put our collective cue in the rack from half time against the Hawks should mean it isn’t a big factor.
As long as we can keep their wing to half forward types reasonably under check I think our ball usage, speed of ball movement and options up forward will be a bit too much for the Pies.
Dogs by 3 goals.
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood
Friday 7.40 @ Docklands
Last time we met:
Round 13, 2008 @ Docklands
Western Bulldogs 15.9.99 d. Collingwood 13.11.89
The Form Guide:
3rd Western Bulldogs10-4, 130.4%
Five wins on the trot by an average margin of 10 goals and our last loss was in a strong performance against Geelong. The only question mark against our white-hot form is that none of the wins have been against sides currently sitting in the top eight.
4th Collingwood 9-5, 118.4%
Six wins in a row by an average margin of over 7 goals. They were struggling before that but I think a lot of it had to do with their injury list. Much like our form the only doubts would be about the quality of their opponents with their biggest scalp being the 8th placed Bombers.
The Stats:
Western Bulldogs
1st- goals per game
2nd- disposals per game
1st- Skill errors per game
1st- team to opponent first possessions difference
Collingwood
1st- kick-to-handball ratio
15th- contested possessions
4th- least opponent contested possessions
2nd- Skill errors per game
The top 2 teams when it comes to skill errors per game but these stats don’t tell the full story. Collingwood prefer to kick the ball more than any other which leads to more errors. Our combination of a high amount of disposals and high risk game style also naturally leads to a few more errors.
Collingwood games seem to include a small amount of contested possessions for either side.
The Selection Table
Western Bulldogs
Williams to come in to combat one of their tall forwards and free up Morris and Shaggy to combat their dangerous small forwards. Sam Reid looks the likely out with a groin problem.
Collingwood
I would say unchanged or a defender out for another runner like Clarke.
The key match-ups:
Didak v Picken
Didak is just about the hottest player in the league at the moment. Malthouse ensures that Didak is given a few spells on the bench, allowing him to have explosive bursts to break tags. He has racked up his 3 career highest disposal games in his last 3 games. Last week he spent the early stages off the game working off half back as a “quarter back” to tune himself into the game before moving to his familiar wing/half forward role. Morris has a great history against him but Didak covers a lot more ground now and I wouldn’t want Morris spending so much time out of defence. I would give Picken first crack due to what he has shown against the likes of Harvey, Pearce and Deledio. Picken might also play on Davis, Swan and Lockyer depending on rotations.
Davis v Morris
Another one who is covering more ground and his early season form was particularly impressive. I am a little worried about Davis being too clever and agile for Morris. He can rotate with Picken depending on whether Davis and Didak are playing primarily forward or in the midfield.
Medhurst v Shaggy
Shaggy killed him last time, keeping him quiet while creating a lot of rebound. Eade is using Shaggy superbly, consistently finding a mismatch to exploit and I see Medhurst as the one this week.
Harbrow v Dick
Hopefully Harbrow can continue his form and offer us drive from defence.
Cloke v Williams
Cloke returned to form last week. He spends a lot more time outside 50 than Anthony and I would prefer Lake closer to goal. Hopefully Tom has the fitness to be competitive and ensure Cloke isn’t too much damaging.
Anthony v Lake
I think Anthony is a bit of a one trick pony, playing as a traditional full-forward. He doesn’t get it much but is effective when he does, being a great kick for goal (not so much of late). I think he is the type of opponent that suits Lake (tall who does nothing offer than kick a couple of goals), allowing him to zone off and take marks from opposition kicks inside 50.
Swan vs Boyd/Cross/Picken
I would team tag Swan depending on midfield rotations. Boyd has been great going one on one with elite midfielders this year. Cross or Picken to pick him up when he is being rotated off a wing/flank.
Pendlebury vs Cooney/Collingwood's anti-tag ways
Collingwood don't seem to like tags, allowing their midfielders greater freedom. Hopefully Pendlebury is still underdone and Cooney and/or Griffen can take advantage of their freedom. I really think we can hurt them here.
Fraser/Brown v Hudson/Minson
The ruck duel is going to be a battle of extremes with the athletic Fraser up against the physical duo in Hudson and Minson. Fraser was great last week and will spend the vast majority of time in the ruck with Brown there to give him the occasional breather. Hudson and Minson need to physical dominate Fraser and rotate to keep up with him around the ground. It will be a good test for Will with his recent improvement as a mobile ruckman.
Harry O v Johnno
Harry O is one of the better defenders going around and it should be a good match up. Johnno’s work rate of late has been great and he needs to continually provide a target.
Maxwell
He is great at zoning off his opponent and taking marks from opposition kicks. His opponent needs to be accountable because he can be very damaging when allowed to fun free. I think they would love to get him matched up on Hahn.
Lockyer
2nd half specialist if ever there was one. One of the many Collingwood players that can rotate into the forward line and can be very damaging if he gets under your guard.
Where it will be won or lost
Both sides are in great form but also looking for a big scalp to further prove their worth. Both teams have multiple avenues to goal, so getting match ups right will be enormous.
The main worry I have about Collingwood is their ability to rotate players like Didak, Davis, Lockyer and Thomas through the midfield and forward line, which makes it very difficult for their minders. Picken might end up with various opponents depending on the rotations
I think we can exploit their backline with our small forward line. Presti has been in fine form and while he can play on a variety of opponents, he is probably more suited to KP forwards and Nathan Brown will struggle to find a match up. Neither are the type of tall defender that can zone off their opponent. Keeping a close tab on Maxwell will be crucial.
Their midfielders work very hard, however I think their disposal can be suspect at times and we need to punish their turnovers. While they aren’t slow, I think we can damage them with our pace if we are confident enough to take risks and run hard.
As I mentioned earlier, Collingwood don't seem to rate tags, allowing their midfielders great freedom but I think damaging/explosive type midfielders really punish this. Griffen and Cooney need to take advantage of the rare freedom, I think they will have big games.
The Summary
I was worried about the 6 day break but the ability to put our collective cue in the rack from half time against the Hawks should mean it isn’t a big factor.
As long as we can keep their wing to half forward types reasonably under check I think our ball usage, speed of ball movement and options up forward will be a bit too much for the Pies.
Dogs by 3 goals.
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