Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

[Sedat]

First of all, many thanks to Mantis for extending the opportunity to write up this week’s match preview, in what shapes as a pivotal match to ascertain just where the Dogs are at against, who I believe to be, the best in the business in 2009 to date:

Match Preview Round 17
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Saturday 7:10pm, Docklands

Last time they met:
Round 6, 2009, Docklands
St Kilda 14.20:104 def. Western Bulldogs 11.10:76

After a tight opening 50 minutes, St Kilda broke the game apart with a burst of 4 consecutive goals in the last 6 minutes to close out the first half en route to a comfortable victory. During a 6 week patch either side of this game, St Kilda were in white-hot form, having conceded less than 50 points a game and less than 40 inside 50’s in every match except this one. By contrast, the Bulldogs were in their flattest patch of the season, having an unusually high turnover and ineffective possession rate (highlighted in this match by St Kilda’s relentless pressure all over the ground) as well as trying to nurse an underdone Murphy back into the team following restricted pre-seasons (there was no Cooney either from memory). The end result was a very comfortable St Kilda victory, and a notable lack of run and precision disposal by a rusty Bulldogs outfit.

Form Guide:
St Kilda – 1st (16 wins – 0 losses): 169.80%
16 wins without a blemish says it all really, but the manner of St Kilda’s contemptuous demolition of the highly credentialed Adelaide in Round 15 echoed their dominant early season form, and re-asserted their complete dominance on the competition thus far this season. I am personally amazed that they are still not premiership favourites.

Western Bulldogs – 3rd (11 wins – 5 losses): 128.72%
Following the Round 6 encounter between the two teams, the Bulldogs have since embarked on a terrific run of form, with 8 wins out of 10, and 2 losses (both at Docklands) against fellow top 4 aspirants by an aggregate of 3 points. After defeating Essendon last week, the Dogs are now 2-4 against fellow top 8 teams, and 0-3 against top 4 teams so far this season. Interestingly, the Dogs have lost 4 of their 5 games for the season at Docklands. Also of note is that, while the Dogs have won 2 of the last 3 against the Saints (all at Docklands) the 2 recent victories came against the vastly inferior 2008 St Kilda model.

The Team Stats:
St Kilda
Ranked 1st in Kicks Per Game
Ranked 5th in Handballs Per Game
Ranked 2nd in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 1st in Marks Per Game
Ranked 4th in Points Per Game
Ranked 1st in Tackles Per Game
Ranked 1st in least Opponent Kicks Per Game
Ranked 5th in least Opponent Disposals Per Game
Ranked 3rd in least Opponent Marks Per Game
Ranked 1st in least Opponent Points Per Game
Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Differential
Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Differential
Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Differential
Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Differential
Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Differential
Ranked 1st for points conceded (60 per game)
Ranked 1st for inside 50’s conceded per game

St Kilda’s great strength has been to deny the ball to the opposition in dangerous scoring areas, which they have achieved by placing their opponents in massive defensive pressure all over the ground. Their mutant version of the Hawthorn rolling zone literally pins their opponent in their defensive area, and requires great risk and skill to pierce through. The end result is a very low amount of inside 50’s conceded per week, and a subsequently amazing average points conceded for 16 consecutive weeks of 60 points, something not seen since the days of the depression.

Western Bulldogs:
Ranked 3rd in Kicks Per Game
Ranked 4th in Handballs Per Game
Ranked 3rd in Disposals Per Game
Ranked 4th in Marks Per Game
Ranked 1st in Points Per Game
Ranked 4th in least Opponent Kicks Per Game
Ranked 5th in least Opponent Points Per Game
Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game
Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Differential
Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Differential
Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Differential
Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Differential
Ranked 5th in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Differential
Ranked 14th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game
Ranked 12th in least Opponent Marks Per Game

The Bulldog’ resurgence since Round 6 this season has been underpinned by their increased output in defensive oriented indicators. Tackles are well up, inside 50’s conceded are well down, as are scores conceded (averaging in the 70’s per game since Round 6). Disposal efficiency is also well up from the first 6 rounds, when the Dogs were the least effective team with the ball in their hands. None of this has been at the expense of attacking drive, with inside 50’s also well up. However, the Dogs do allow the opposition more of the ball than other top 4 teams do, and especially more so than St Kilda.

The Selection Table
St Kilda:
Kosi has a hand injury and is also under a potential MRP cloud. If he misses out, a straight swap for Gardiner appears the likely change. If that happens, McEvoy making way for Ball to boost their midfield rotational stocks would be the other likely change.

Western Bulldogs:
The Dogs will more than likely go in unchanged with a clean bill of health on the injury front. Last week Hahn, Hill and Welsh all improved significantly on their recent output, and although Eagleton is still working through a poor patch of form, any form-related changes would be a major surprise. Everitt was the best of the Seadogs last round, with the likes of Callan and Addision potentially in line for consideration due to the nature of the opposition – there are Seadogs in better recent form but none will be brought into the coal face against the ladder leader.

Key Match-ups

Kosi/Gardiner v Lake
Lake does his best work against the less mobile tall forwards and is not afraid to zone off and provide great rebound drive. He also prefers to stay as deep as possible. Kosi (if he plays) has been feast or famine this season with several non-contributing games mixed in amongst some fantastic games. Lake can also handle Gardiner when he drifts forward on occasions.

Montagna v Picken
Montagna is probably the best line-breaking midfielder in the competition in 2009, and provides the vital link for St Kilda between quick transition from defence to attack. He needs to be shut down completely, and in our team only Picken has the capability to match him for pace and endurance.

Riewoldt v Williams
Roo is too agile for, and has a bigger tank than, Lake. His incredible running capacity will attempt to drag Lake out of his (and the Dogs) comfort zone away from full-back. Williams has the size, strength, speed off the mark and endurance to make a good fist of a purely negating role on Roo. Morris would be my plan B if Williams cannot quell Roo’s influence.

Hayes v Boyd
Primarily a head-to-head tussle, but Boyd has the capability to put the clamps on a quality opponent while still generating enough ball of his own. I’m loathe to instruct Boyd to be too defensive because he has provided such fantastic for us in the midfield.

King/Gardiner v Hudson/Minson
Intriguing match-up as all 4 ruckmen are more traditional craftsmen in the ruck as opposed to tall followers in the Cox mould. No surprise that St Kilda has a far more dangerous midfield with a quality ruck division feeding it compared to recent seasons. Minson has been very good for a couple of months now and Hudson was the best big man on the ground against Essendon. Both are winning more of the ball in recent weeks (upwards of 20 possessions each) and have the capacity to hurt the Saints offensively if they are allowed to do so.

Dal Santo v Griffen
Another head-to-head battle. Dal Santo is in scintillating form and has proven to be smart and hard-working enough to beat off the hard tags. He’s going to get his 35 possessions regardless so I’d like to see us try and work him in the other direction to give him something to think about. Griffen has been in excellent form in recent weeks and has gone back to being a line-breaker. He is noticeably working harder for longer in games as well – Jones might actually take him instead of Cooney.

Jones v Cooney
Cooney is our most explosive midfield weapon and Jones will be probably assigned to put the clamps on him (he might get Griffen). If he goes to Cooney, I would send him forward on occasions to take Jones away from his comfort zone – Cooney is a very smart lead-up forward when required.

Goddard/Gilbert v Higgins/Aker
Higgins and Aker are smart enough and dangerous enough to require close attention. A variety of St Kilda defenders will try and rotate through half back in order to have one of them freed up to provide the springboard to attack, so we need to ensure that Higgins and Aker are honoured as much as possible to keep the likes of Goddard and Gilbert honest. We’ll need disciplined games from all of Hahn, Hill and Welsh to ensure that numbers at the contest don’t favour St Kilda in our forward line. Plan B on Goddard would be to have Ward run with him – Ward has been good in defensive roles in recent weeks and could keep Goddard under some control. We absolutely must avoid a repeat of what happened in the 1st half against the Pies, with Maxwell/O’Brien/Shaw constantly peeling off and creating a numerical advantage at the contests in our forward line, something ST Kilda is excellent at doing as well.

Murphy v Fisher
Murphy needs to be in constant movement to keep Fisher honest and lure him away from the aerial contests in our forward 50. This is one area we did not have the luxury of exploiting last time around, and Murphy’s presence alone will provide a massive difference to our set-up.

Schneider v Harbrow
Schneider is a smart and tough small forward who possesses fantastic defensive pressure. Big job for Harbrow this week.

Milne v Hargrave
Hargrave is a good match-up for Milne, with noted success on him in the past. He is our ‘Fisher’ at the moment, providing great rebound drive and mopping up fantastically well in defence. Milne needs some homework but he is still prone to being worked over in the other direction, something Hargrave has the ability to do. Morris might also get this job, freeing up Hargrave to be more of an attacking rebounder.

McQualter v Gilbee
Saints will try and use a defensive forward tag to keep Gilbee honest. McQualter has been involved in many St Kilda forward thrusts in recent weeks (he’s top 10 in the competition for goal assists this season) and looks the ideal candidate for the role. I’d like to see Morris used to counter this match-up and free up Gilbee to play his creative role off half back.

Other potential match-ups:
Ball v Cross
Welsh v Dawson
Blake v Johnson
Apart from possibly McQualter or Eddy, I can't find a definite match-up for Morris if Williams takes Roo - Morris might get Milne instead of Hargy, he might get the midfielders drifting forward

Where it will be won or lost:
Both teams possess very strong ruck divisions and deep midfields that are adept at winning the clearances and contested possessions. The Dogs breaking even or winning in this area will go a long way towards feeding enough opportunities for our forward line to kick a winning score. We absolutely must ensure that whoever St Kilda try to release as their spare man down back (be it Fisher, Goddard or Gilbert) has a direct opponent, and we must play through this opponent where possible.

In order to break through the St Kilda ‘zone press’, we need to run and carry by hand. We need to be in continuous motion – no stopping and propping across half back, which only plays into the St Kilda trap. Run, run, run. That also means our forwards need to be in constant motion to provide targets for our midfield runners to spot up. Our defensive pressure also needs to be fanatical, at the same level that it was against the Hawks. If we cannot maintain this pressure, our half forward line will become a springboard for St Kilda’s attacking thrusts and we will lose. Hahn, Johnson, Welsh and Hill will be crucial in pressuring their direct opponents and preventing the uncontested rebound out of their defensive 50.

I would set up without any spare man in defence this week. If St Kilda puts a spare man across half back, man him up. If they put 2, man them both up. But we must always have an outlet option defensive side at the stoppages (someone like a Crossy) – St Kilda are very good at extracting the ball in traffic and clearing the congestion.

The Summary
I expect a settled and in-form Bulldog outfit to put in a much better account of themselves this time around. Our optimum game style is developing nicely as the season progresses, with the likes of Cooney and Murphy continuing to get better as the season progresses. But St Kilda’s game plan, whilst highly taxing, is working without fault, and their entire senior list has completely bought into the plan and are executing it on match day. I have a sneaking suspicion that St Kilda will extract slightly more out of their 18-22nd players than we will – this was a major liability for St Kilda in recent seasons but the likes of Blake, McQualter and Eddy/Geary are providing important contributions (especially defensively). In a titanic struggle, I just think that St Kilda has the all-round ability to sneak over the line.

St Kilda by 7 points.

[Mantis]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Excellent write-up Sedat, some great discussion topics for us to work off for the upcoming week.

A couple of quick one's.

1/ Who takes Gram? His long (not always accurate) kicking inside 50 is very important to the way St.Kilda play and he is currently 2nd in the competition in inside 50's with 93. Last time we played them Eagleton played a defensive role on him and was acknowledged as doing a good job, but while Gram only had 13 kicks he had 10 inside 50's which was too many for my liking. Who goes to him this time?

2/ Morris is our best pure defender and as such has to play a key role. We can't have him picking up the 5th or 6th best forward as this is a role best suited to a player who offers us some rebound (Harbrow or Hargrave)

[Sedat]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Excellent write-up Sedat, some great discussion topics for us to work off for the upcoming week.

A couple of quick one's.

1/ Who takes Gram? His long (not always accurate) kicking inside 50 is very important to the way St.Kilda play and he is currently 2nd in the competition in inside 50's with 93. Last time we played them Eagleton played a defensive role on him and was acknowledged as doing a good job, but while Gram only had 13 kicks he had 10 inside 50's which was too many for my liking. Who goes to him this time?

2/ Morris is our best pure defender and as such has to play a key role. We can't have him picking up the 5th or 6th best forward as this is a role best suited to a player who offers us some rebound (Harbrow or Hargrave)

1/ I'd be inclined to give Eagleton the role again. He at least has the aerobic capacity to go with Gram - in a perfect world, with Gram being the flakiest player in the St Kilda side from a defensive perspective, Eagle might even be able to do some damage the other way

2/ In the 'changes for Round 17' thread, I was questioning who Williams would match up on if Kosi is out. I genuinely like the idea of Williams taking Roo, but you're dead right, Morris will take a pivotal St Kilda forward. It's just that when I did the ring-a-rosey on match-ups, I found no specific key match-up for him. He might take Milne or even Schneider, but then who does Harbrow take? What about Gilbee and Hargy? Who'd be a coach!

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

2/ In the 'changes for Round 17' thread, I was questioning who Williams would match up on if Kosi is out. I genuinely like the idea of Williams taking Roo, but you're dead right, Morris will take a pivotal St Kilda forward. It's just that when I did the ring-a-rosey on match-ups, I found no specific key match-up for him. He might take Milne or even Schneider, but then who does Harbrow take? What about Gilbee and Hargy? Who'd be a coach!

I definitely wouldn't have Morris on Milne. While he can be damaging, he relies on doing a few dangerous things in a game rather than being a consistent threat and is open for being hurt going the other way. Harbrow beat him last time and Shaggy smashed him in the game before that. I think I would go with Harbrow as Shaggy can find another opponent easier.

[Mofra]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Excellent write up Sedat, it is worth noting we were able to score a little better against them last time then any other side has. I think this is the sort of game a Minson or Hahn could really stamp their authority on up forward - if they take 2 out in a pack attempt, we will reduce their numerical advatage they enjopy at the fall of the ball & I rate our forwards one on one with any team once the ball is on the ground.

The game will be won or lost away frm the ball methinks - which ever team can guard space better, and pressure the opposition ball carrier will win. St Kilda do it better than anyone, although our job on the Hawks shows we are capable of doing it too.

We should be fairly confident in this one.

[dog town]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Great work Sedat.

The main thing I have noticed about the Stkilda zone is that it seems to work in bursts. They dont always press right up with it but when they do it kills sides for 10-15 minutes then the game generally evens out. I am sure this theory is not rock solid but I have been working on the theory that when they do press really hard with that zone they are at the most dangerous in that initial 10 minutes. They have seemed to blow sides away with it then either the team has found a way through or they have reverted to a more subdued type of zone. I am not sure whether it is a case of the saints tiring after putting in such a sustained pressurised effort or whether they are pulling the zone back to conserve energy for another burst later on. One thing I am certain of is that we will find it bloody hard to find a target or way through when they press right up on us. I dont know how you go about it but its just so important that we dont get steam rolled by one of those bursts.

I think Harbrow will be incredibly important to us putting a few holes in the structure they want to run with. Essendon should have beaten the saints and dominated a half just by running with risk through the corridor.

[boydogs]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Fantastic work Sedat, great food for thought
I was at the game last time and note the following reasons why we lost:

- Lake was matched up on Gwilt and looked a bit lost
- Morris was dominated by Riewoldt, and this matchup was isolated
- Defensive rebound was stagnant
- We continually turned the ball over at half forward either over using the ball trying to create space or bombing the ball in under pressure
- Their ball movement off half back into their forward line was too easy, too much time and space was allowed

The form of Lake, Hargrave, Williams, Morris and Harbrow in defense will make a big difference to matchups and rebound. Murphy, Higgins, Johnno, Welsh and Hahn all played well last week which should improve the confidence of our midfielders in them to create a contest when going forward rather than waiting for them to find space. Cooney and Griffen are playing better which should help us to create space for quality forward entries.

If we kick the ball deep forward as in the second half against Essendon I think we are a good chance. The defensive pressure of the Saints mids makes perfect entries difficult, and the harder you try the quicker it goes back the other way. I think we can get enough from Welsh, Hahn and Minson up forward to bring the other forwards into the game, make their defense accountable and put pressure on them as we did Essendon's defense with kicks to advantage near the goalmouth.

I am worried we will try and be too cute with the ball, this is the wrong side to do that against - you need to run and carry and kick long - we should not let our small forward line discourage us from kicking to a contest, we need to back them in to bring the ball to ground and win the game from there

[BulldogBelle]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Great work Sedat.

The main thing I have noticed about the Stkilda zone is that it seems to work in bursts. They dont always press right up with it but when they do it kills sides for 10-15 minutes then the game generally evens out. I am sure this theory is not rock solid but I have been working on the theory that when they do press really hard with that zone they are at the most dangerous in that initial 10 minutes. They have seemed to blow sides away with it then either the team has found a way through or they have reverted to a more subdued type of zone. I am not sure whether it is a case of the saints tiring after putting in such a sustained pressurised effort or whether they are pulling the zone back to conserve energy for another burst later on. One thing I am certain of is that we will find it bloody hard to find a target or way through when they press right up on us. I dont know how you go about it but its just so important that we dont get steam rolled by one of those bursts.

I think Harbrow will be incredibly important to us putting a few holes in the structure they want to run with. Essendon should have beaten the saints and dominated a half just by running with risk through the corridor.

Thanks Sedat, you should be polishing up your CV for a coaching position!

DT, agree with the fact that Harbrow is very important, and to beat the Saints we will have to take risks running the ball out of defence and using our hand skills....Gilbee and Shaggy are OK by hand, better by foot, besides Harbrow we dont have many other players who playing in the backline have the pace to take on the opposition with their leg speed and by hand....it may be an opportunity to place Griff in the backline for the match potentially to help out Harbrow with this task

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

How much has this St.Kilda side changed on paper to the ones we beat last year?

[Bornadog]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Sedat, these previews get better and better and you have raised the bar again.

I think Harbrow played on Milne last time and kept him quiet, so expect the same again.

The biggest factor in this game will be how we start and how many goals we have on the board at half time. The past two weeks we have had 6 and 4 goals at half time and the same when we played the Saints the first time around. We need a better first half as we know we will be good in the second half. I believe we are the fittest team in the AFL.

Is anyone concerned the Ray picked up 39 disposals against a weak Adelaide?

[alwaysadog]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Sedat, a terrific analysis and one that it will be great to reflect on this time next week. I'd consider giving up your day job.

[Studentlib]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Absolutely first class preview! Any idea of number of possible permutations in match ups? It hurts my head thinking about it.
With Gardiner not getting up apparently, how do we take advantage of king? Can he run out the game with the Bearded One?
Could there be advantage in swapping Ward with Harbrow on Milne at some stage to enable Harbrow to move further up field and use his run and left foot to break their midfield press? A link up player like jonno of old. We have to rely on Griffen,Harbrow, Hargrave, Gilbee, Cooney, Higgins, Eagle, Boyd to protect the ball carrier and create space, time and options to penetrate their midfield press.
Could someone tell Lake not to handball less than 5 metres if he wants to take on the opposition. Those up and under jaffas keep putting us under pressure. With Saints it could be destructive. Otherwise his decision making has improved dramatically. He and young harbrow will be given a searching test. If they stand up mentally it should give the backs some time, space and confidence to take on the midfield press that has perplexed other teams. What role if any for Josh in this game?

[LostDoggy]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

That may be the best write up I've ever had the pleasure of sitting through!!

Well done Sedat, I look forward to contributing to the discussion when time permits me a little more.

[comrade]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Great stuff Sedat, made all the more impressive by the fact that you’ve also got a new bub to look after

So many interesting and crucial match ups that you’ve covered – as has been discussed, putting pressure on their ball carriers and making their rebounding defenders accountable will be paramount.

If we give them easy ball, they’ll cut us to shreds.

Interesting to note, that during the 2nd and 3rd quarters on the weekend, they only allowed Adelaide 24 possessions forward of the middle, compared to the saints 120 odd.

Game breakers like Eagleton, Cooney and Griffen are going to have to work damn hard to provide an option, otherwise we’ll stagnate and play right into their hands.

Should be a cracker.

[Sedat]

Re: Round 17 Match Preview: St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Interesting to note, that during the 2nd and 3rd quarters on the weekend, they only allowed Adelaide 24 possessions forward of the middle, compared to the saints 120 odd.

Cheers for all the nice words guys, but to be honest this site fosters an environment of serious football discussion - and there are several posters (you know who you are) who would possess more knowledge about the tactical side of football in their little finger than I would in my entire body, and whose contributions I hang on every word. There is no better forum than 'woof' to talk about what is specifically happening on the field of battle relevant to the Bulldogs, and I for one am very thankful for its existence.

Comrade, this stat blew absolutely me away from Sunday's game. How can a team average 12 possessions a quarter forward of the centre circle in 60 minutes of football? I know that Adelaide contributed to their demise by the defeatist way they set up (which reeked of loss minimisation) but these sort of numbers haven't happened in the history of our game. St Kilda have taken defensive pressure, especially the fanatically hard work off the ball, to new levels.

Dog Town raised some great points about the way they work in surges. The first surge usually happens as soon as the match starts, so that they can immediately assert their game plan onto the contest. It clearly takes a lot out of them because it is never sustained over the course of 120 minutes. To be honest, they were stiff not to be 7-8 goals ahead of the Cats in the first 20 minutes and it would have been game over. What did the Cats do to work their way back into the contest, and conversely where did St Kilda drop off to allow Geelong to kick multiple goals?

I'd love to hear from the posters that went to that horrendous pre-season match against the Saints at Princes Park back in February - the infamous 'Anderson Ball' game as Sockeye described it. What did we learn about the Saints game style that day and what can we do to ensure we can take their best shots next time when the defensive heat is ramped up? What are St Kilda's weak links, both personnel wise and game plan wise? I thought our uncontested disposal errors contributed as much to the loss in Round 6 as St Kilda's defensive pressure (especially late in the 1st half), and we got enough inside 50 entries that day to post a decent enough score. We had no Cooney, half a Murphy and a real lack of rebound and midfield run. Our defensive core were badly out of touch early in the season (Morris, Hargrave, Gilbee and Lake, as well as Addison) and our defensive unit is now flying by comparison (with Harbrow essentially having replaced Addison since then).