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Match Preview Round 18
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle
Saturday 7:10pm, Docklands
Last time they met:.
It was WAY back in round 1 this year (on a sunny afternoon at Subiaco). We ran away to win 25.7 (157) to 13.16 (94)…but it really was a lot tighter than that – Freo came hard at us in the 3rd (5.4 to 4 straight) before we ran away with it late.
Joe the Goose (aka Mitch Hahn) kicked 5 for us, Griff got 3 – all in the first 15 minutes I think – as did Eagle and Gilbee. Peake – who usually struggles to hit water falling out of a boat – somehow managed 3 for the Dockers.
Duffield – in a sign of things to come – was named Fremantle’s best. He has had a terrific season. Just for something different, Matty Boyd was sensational for our mob.
Murphy missed for us, Hayden missed for them.
Form Guide:
Freo – 15th – 4 wins
Western Bulldogs – 3rd 11 wins
Despite the variance in ladder position, the Dockers are coming off a win (in a woeful game) whilst the Dogs hope to bounce back from a very disappointing effort vs the Saints.
The Selection Table
Dockers:
Well, Pavlich and Sandilands came back into the side last week – so that is good! Further to that, I suspect that the very good young forward Chris Mayne will return for his first AFL game of the season this weekend…his local form has been very good for a couple of weeks as he returns from (what I think was) a groin issue.
The amazing thing about Fremantle is that they currently have 10 first year players in the side – which is why I don’t think there is any hope for Marcus Drum at that footy club.
Van Berlo, Ruffles, Ballantyne, Broughton, Suban, Hill, Walters…I forget the rest. But it is truly incredible that they are doing this. I guess that is what happens when you turn over 14 players in one season, but it is still staggering to me that this is happened at what is supposed to be elite level sport.
That said, the word from the source of truth (Dockerland.com) is that Ruffles is injured and will miss – shame as he kicked 2 last weekend and looked alright – and that a few others including Duffield may also miss with injury. Solomon has a tribunal appearance scheduled, so could miss as well. On the list to come in would be the aforementioned Mayne, Byron Schammer (a worse kick than Peake if that is possible), Luke Pratt (fast-ish winger/half-back type from Swans), Michael Walters (skittish small forward type who is nowhere near ready for AFL footy) and Daniel Gilmore (who never was ready for AFL footy and I cannot believe would get a game).
Dogs:
Higgins will definitely miss. Murphy will probably miss. Both of these things make me sad as I enjoy watching them play (and would whatever colors they wore – just pleased they wear rwb). Despite (besides??) the usual calls for Eagleton’s head, I am not sure there will be any other outs this week. I assume Gilbee will be back – other candidates to come in include Callan, Stack and Everitt…I would go for Stack as he is a bit different to the others already in the mix. There may be calls for O’Keefe as well but unless he has learnt to run since I last saw him I would put that in the ‘Unlikely – Glacier’ list of players.
Key Match-ups
Lake vs Pavlich – I really hope this happens, but have a feeling Pavlich will play in the midfield (again). He is a terrific forward though – good enough on the lead to worry Brian yet also strong enough to make sure those body on body contests aren’t completely one-sided.
Hudson vs Sandilands – Sandilands is a dead-set monster. Hudson wont outruck him – he wont – but his willingness to fight for the footy on the deck will be the great equalizer.
Cooney vs Schammer – Schammer has been effective in a couple of ‘outside stopper’ roles this year and Freo welcome him back just in time to take on possibly the most explosive midfielder in the comp – Adam Cooney. The scenario is pretty simple for the Dogs – to be successful, we need Coon running and bouncing his way down the ground – this hasn’t happened all season and we need to find a way to get it going.
Hill vs Eagleton – I think Hill is Eagleton reincarnate (which makes my Docker’s loving brother weep) and it will be interesting to see if this works out. Hill is quicker than the Eagle now – and probably kicks more effectively – but rarely seems to realize who is opponent is and could be badly burned by the bald one.
Harbrow vs Haydn Ballantyne – I am looking forward to this as well. Ballantyne is quick – really, really quick – and coming off the Milne experiment Harbrow needs to get straight ‘back on the horse’ so to speak. Ballantyne will quickly rocket up the charts of ‘most hated opposition players’ (he is mouthy, cheeky, small and kicks goals) in the next couple of years and despite only having played 3 or 4 games is a couple of years older than Harbrow…from a Dogs perspective I wonder if he gets ‘done’ this week whether he loses the back-pocket role for the rest of the year???
Where it will be won or lost:
Midfield. If Freo get enough of the footy to Pavlich, he will kick goals. If they struggle to do this and he has to go and actually play in the midfield, the game is gone and we will waltz to victory.
Mitch Hahn always kicks a bag against the dud sides (yes Essendon, I am looking at you) and he will be a tough ask for someone like Broughton to handle.
The Summary
Freo are coming off a hard fought win in the Derby – the only game they actually seem to care about. They will have celebrated long and hard, they have nothing to play for and they are completely undermanned. I cannot see how they win this game.
Their only hope is to take advantage of Sandilands dominance, get the ball forward through Haselby, Duffield and Mundy, and hope that Pavlich and Ballantyne can kick them a score. I don’t see it. They only managed 13 Points against Adelaide and 28 vs the Saints – I don’t see more than 50 being kicked vs us.
The Dogs are too experienced – and at this point simply too good – to lose this match. The betting line in Melbourne should be 49.5 points and I would bet the over.
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle
Saturday 7:10pm, Docklands
Last time they met:.
It was WAY back in round 1 this year (on a sunny afternoon at Subiaco). We ran away to win 25.7 (157) to 13.16 (94)…but it really was a lot tighter than that – Freo came hard at us in the 3rd (5.4 to 4 straight) before we ran away with it late.
Joe the Goose (aka Mitch Hahn) kicked 5 for us, Griff got 3 – all in the first 15 minutes I think – as did Eagle and Gilbee. Peake – who usually struggles to hit water falling out of a boat – somehow managed 3 for the Dockers.
Duffield – in a sign of things to come – was named Fremantle’s best. He has had a terrific season. Just for something different, Matty Boyd was sensational for our mob.
Murphy missed for us, Hayden missed for them.
Form Guide:
Freo – 15th – 4 wins
Western Bulldogs – 3rd 11 wins
Despite the variance in ladder position, the Dockers are coming off a win (in a woeful game) whilst the Dogs hope to bounce back from a very disappointing effort vs the Saints.
The Selection Table
Dockers:
Well, Pavlich and Sandilands came back into the side last week – so that is good! Further to that, I suspect that the very good young forward Chris Mayne will return for his first AFL game of the season this weekend…his local form has been very good for a couple of weeks as he returns from (what I think was) a groin issue.
The amazing thing about Fremantle is that they currently have 10 first year players in the side – which is why I don’t think there is any hope for Marcus Drum at that footy club.
Van Berlo, Ruffles, Ballantyne, Broughton, Suban, Hill, Walters…I forget the rest. But it is truly incredible that they are doing this. I guess that is what happens when you turn over 14 players in one season, but it is still staggering to me that this is happened at what is supposed to be elite level sport.
That said, the word from the source of truth (Dockerland.com) is that Ruffles is injured and will miss – shame as he kicked 2 last weekend and looked alright – and that a few others including Duffield may also miss with injury. Solomon has a tribunal appearance scheduled, so could miss as well. On the list to come in would be the aforementioned Mayne, Byron Schammer (a worse kick than Peake if that is possible), Luke Pratt (fast-ish winger/half-back type from Swans), Michael Walters (skittish small forward type who is nowhere near ready for AFL footy) and Daniel Gilmore (who never was ready for AFL footy and I cannot believe would get a game).
Dogs:
Higgins will definitely miss. Murphy will probably miss. Both of these things make me sad as I enjoy watching them play (and would whatever colors they wore – just pleased they wear rwb). Despite (besides??) the usual calls for Eagleton’s head, I am not sure there will be any other outs this week. I assume Gilbee will be back – other candidates to come in include Callan, Stack and Everitt…I would go for Stack as he is a bit different to the others already in the mix. There may be calls for O’Keefe as well but unless he has learnt to run since I last saw him I would put that in the ‘Unlikely – Glacier’ list of players.
Key Match-ups
Lake vs Pavlich – I really hope this happens, but have a feeling Pavlich will play in the midfield (again). He is a terrific forward though – good enough on the lead to worry Brian yet also strong enough to make sure those body on body contests aren’t completely one-sided.
Hudson vs Sandilands – Sandilands is a dead-set monster. Hudson wont outruck him – he wont – but his willingness to fight for the footy on the deck will be the great equalizer.
Cooney vs Schammer – Schammer has been effective in a couple of ‘outside stopper’ roles this year and Freo welcome him back just in time to take on possibly the most explosive midfielder in the comp – Adam Cooney. The scenario is pretty simple for the Dogs – to be successful, we need Coon running and bouncing his way down the ground – this hasn’t happened all season and we need to find a way to get it going.
Hill vs Eagleton – I think Hill is Eagleton reincarnate (which makes my Docker’s loving brother weep) and it will be interesting to see if this works out. Hill is quicker than the Eagle now – and probably kicks more effectively – but rarely seems to realize who is opponent is and could be badly burned by the bald one.
Harbrow vs Haydn Ballantyne – I am looking forward to this as well. Ballantyne is quick – really, really quick – and coming off the Milne experiment Harbrow needs to get straight ‘back on the horse’ so to speak. Ballantyne will quickly rocket up the charts of ‘most hated opposition players’ (he is mouthy, cheeky, small and kicks goals) in the next couple of years and despite only having played 3 or 4 games is a couple of years older than Harbrow…from a Dogs perspective I wonder if he gets ‘done’ this week whether he loses the back-pocket role for the rest of the year???
Where it will be won or lost:
Midfield. If Freo get enough of the footy to Pavlich, he will kick goals. If they struggle to do this and he has to go and actually play in the midfield, the game is gone and we will waltz to victory.
Mitch Hahn always kicks a bag against the dud sides (yes Essendon, I am looking at you) and he will be a tough ask for someone like Broughton to handle.
The Summary
Freo are coming off a hard fought win in the Derby – the only game they actually seem to care about. They will have celebrated long and hard, they have nothing to play for and they are completely undermanned. I cannot see how they win this game.
Their only hope is to take advantage of Sandilands dominance, get the ball forward through Haselby, Duffield and Mundy, and hope that Pavlich and Ballantyne can kick them a score. I don’t see it. They only managed 13 Points against Adelaide and 28 vs the Saints – I don’t see more than 50 being kicked vs us.
The Dogs are too experienced – and at this point simply too good – to lose this match. The betting line in Melbourne should be 49.5 points and I would bet the over.
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