The New Situation

[Scorlibo]

Okay, so although I am still fuming, I have taken a trip to the AFL site and had a go at the ladder predictor. The way things are now, it would be an almighty achievement for us to come third, with fourth being perhaps a fifty/fifty. However, do we really want to come fourth and be choked by St Kilda? Would it be more beneficial to come 5th and play one of Port Adelaide, Essendon and Hawthorn all of whom we have beat convincingly so far this year.

The Doggies, as we all know, have Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood in the run to the finals. Here is everyone else's situation:

Collingwood: Adelaide (away), Richmond, Sydney (home), Bulldogs.
Adelaide: Collingwood (home), Hawthorn (away), West Coast (home), Carlton (away).
Brisbane: Essendon (away), Bulldogs (away), Port Adelaide (home), Sydney (away).
Carlton: Port Adelaide (away), Melbourne, Adelaide (home).

With a bit of excel wizadry, plugging in the probability of each team's individual games,

Probability of the Dogs coming 3rd: 13% 4th: 39% 5th-8th: 48%

Collingwood's probability of coming 3rd is 69%.

So do we want 4th - the Saints - lose - then Brisbane/Carlton/Adelaide or...
do we want 5th - Ess/Port/Haw - most likely win - then most probably the Pies or Cats?

[mighty_west]

Re: The New Situation

The way i'm feeling right now, doesn't matter who we play - straight sets , give me a few hours to cool down, might have a different opinion.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: The New Situation

If we finish 4th and lose, we play the winners from the bottom 4 at home. Likely Brisbane and Adelaide in that secario. I prefer that to sudden death. But what's it all matter, this was a not negotiable game today. I so i thought...

[AndrewP6]

Re: The New Situation

4th, for mine. Even so, I don't see us doing much damage in September - no, not solely based on today.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: The New Situation

I did the predictor and had us coming 6th. I hope I am just being a negative nelly. I think that our season will end in the 2nd week of the finals.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: The New Situation

I did the predictor and had us coming 6th. I hope I am just being a negative nelly. I think that our season will end in the 2nd week of the finals.

Do you have us beating Carlton in week one??

[angelopetraglia]

Re: The New Situation

Hopefully Pies beat the Crows and Dons beat the Lions.

That will still leave us a game and percentage clear in 4th.

BUT ... our destiny is still in our hands.

If we win the last three we will finish 3rd no matter what.

I hope we can learn from today.

[angelopetraglia]

Re: The New Situation

Ladder predictor = impossible.

Who have put today's result in it?

Too many variables. Still 29 results yet to be decided.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: The New Situation

Do you have us beating Carlton in week one??

I have Adelaide coming in 7th and us beating them due to it being in Melbourne. Tonight's performance already has me changing my mind!

[Rocco Jones]

Re: The New Situation

Ladder predictor = impossible.

Who have put today's result in it?

Too many variables. Still 29 results yet to be decided.

Pretty much.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: The New Situation

I have Adelaide coming in 7th and us beating them due to it being in Melbourne. Tonight's performance already has me changing my mind!

I suppose going out in straight sets mean we get a lower pick. Are we tanking?

[Scorlibo]

Re: The New Situation

Ladder predictor = impossible.

Who have put today's result in it?

Too many variables. Still 29 results yet to be decided.

Yes I have put today's result in, I promise you I have considered every game for each of Collingwood, Adelaide, Carlton, Brisbane and us.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: The New Situation

If I had some faith in the Bulldogs actually taking advantage of it, I would be really barracking hard for Essendon right now.

[angelopetraglia]

Re: The New Situation

If I had some faith in the Bulldogs actually taking advantage of it, I would be really barracking hard for Essendon right now.

Middle of next week, faith will be restored.

By Friday, we will be confident of victory against the Lions.

Saturday afternoon we will see no reason why we can't win the next three, snare third, upset the Cats in the first final and go straight into the prelim.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: The New Situation

Middle of next week, faith will be restored.

By Friday, we will be confident of victory against the Lions.

Saturday afternoon we will see no reason why we can't win the next three, snare third, upset the Cats in the first final and go straight into the prelim.

.... Saturday night....