The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

[alwaysadog]

This thread is not about the premiership winner for 2010 but instead asks you to polish the crystal ball and envisage the future but with a specific and different purpose and to pick which side you think is most likely to slip and which is most likely to progress and of course to explain your reasons for those choices.

In between season prognostications nearly everybody adopts a slightly adjusted status quo position ie the same top teams with slight movement. This is seldom the case, yes some teams maintain a consistent form line but there are bolters and sliders. Each season for the last several one side has improved more than most expected; the bolter, and one side has crashed; the slider, ala Hawthorn 2009.

Below are the teams in ladder order at the end of the 2009 home and away season, with a prompt thought or two.

St Kilda: Can the bayside blond-rinsers maintain the intensity and take the final step?

Geelong: Are the pussies still a force, slowly crumbling or regrouping?

Western Bulldogs: Was the Dogs late season form a new found and sustainable intensity or a brief flourish that won’t last; will BBBarry see out the season?

Collingwood: Do the wobbles have the necessary ability to challenge; will the recruits make much difference?

Adelaide: Are they as good as their late season form suggested or were forces combining in a unique manner and overstated their case?

Brisbane: Will the Lions competition with Visy as the country’s biggest recyclers pay off or is a slide likely, can they deliver enough quality ball into forward 50 to allow the twin egos to dominate?

Carlton: Are the blue baggers really coming or likely to be going, will Fevs departure be a positive or a negative?

Essendon: In the death seat, the bombers seemed to fall into 8th position, are they likely to show further improvement or to find the young side performs inconsistently and falls back to the tigres historic position?

Hawthorn: Was 2008 an aberration or was 2009, can they have as bad a season again? In theory they know how a flag is won, can they rise phoenix like to further glory?

Port Adelaide: Is there enough mature quality and can some of the younger ones who showed promise kick on or are they lacking the ability for a real challenge, is Choco past it or just lying doggo?

West Coast Eagles: They always think they are close, but do they have the depth of quality players to improve substantially; is their midfield explosive enough to cover other weaknesses as it used to?

Sydney Swans: seems to have recruited by trade and draft quite well; will they be able to cover and advance on the very ordinary 2009 by their standards. Can Roos squeeze something out in his last year or is that a vain hope?

North Melbourne; have gone for the doctor, coach wise, will Scott’s hard edge prove a winning factor or does he just lack sufficient quality players to advance beyond a middle ranking?

Fremantle: Some quality players but is there enough real talent and can the next rank of young players move up, recycling again, McPhee is back, will this make any difference? Does Harvs have a plan and is it coming together?

Richmond: after all the turmoil of last season and the loss of Richo, have they got sufficient good players to put a good run together? Will the new coach make a difference?

Melbourne: few see more than a slight improvement; can they go beyond the bottom 4?

So who will be the bolter and who will be the slider and why do you think such is likely to transpire?

[GVGjr]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

The Pies could be the danger to our top 3 spot in my opinion. They picked up a very competitive ruckman and a solid midfielder.

[AndrewP6]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I reckon the Blues will slide, they're gonna struggle to replace 90 goals...I think Adelaide will be competitive at the pointy end, but without the planets aligned, they'll fall...I think the Dawks will climb back up, although their ruck stocks aren't flash (good luck Skip!)...hate to say it, but the Pies could be a force...

[Happy Days]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I like the Eagles to bolt; They showed what they are capable of at the end of the season, and have the best group of young players in the league in my opinion. If Kennedy can become the dominant key forward that he is capable of being, and their midfield comes on like one would expect it to, I see no reason why the Eagles can't comfortably finish inside the eight.

A slider is much harder to pick, as I can't see any of the teams that finished in the eight this year not being there or there abouts again. The two most likely to not make it again are probably Brisbane and Essendon, but they won't be far off. Overall, I think the league this year will be a much more even competition towards the top, with a large group of good teams (Geelong, Dogs, Saints, Pies, Adelaide, Hawthorn, etc), but will rapidly thin out as it goes towards the bottom, with an equally large group of bad teams. In terms of sliding, it will come from this bottom group, but they were already so far off the makr to begin with, that it won't have much effect on the finals.

[mighty_west]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Sounds predictable, but Eagles as well to be the Usain Bolt of 2010, not only because they kicked our butts twice last season, but they way they finished off the season.

They obviously need players like Cox & Kerr to be fit & firing, but with those more experienced players as well as an exciting young group, they really look like going places, i predict them to be last years Crows and be round abouts, really bolt up, but not go all the way.

Likely finish: 6-4th

The slider, one name - Fevola, the Navy poo's relied so much on one player more than any side, even though their midfield is looking good, especially with Judd running around, but they also lost Stevens who was also a solid performer in the midfield.

Brock Mclean may help a little, but just cannot see them going places with having to play players such as Fisher or Setanta O'hAilpin as their main forwards, Waite is a quality player, but is coming off a full knee re-co plus would also be required to play down back, plus Fev would have been the perfect support up forward to young Kruiser if he was to be played at CHF.

Likely finish: 15th - 13th

[Twodogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I still dont rate the Saints.


The situation with Luke Ball showed them at their worst. I still dont think Lyon think's he made a mistake leaving Ball on the bench, or more likely wont admit to it, and he's become increasingly more shrill every time the guy's name comes up. Besides that I think they had a season out of the box this year and still managed to come up short.
Everything wont go their way again this year.

I also cant see where they will get automatic improvement from. Lovett brings a bit more pace maybe but they lost Ball and that doesnt seem like a huge upgrade (if at all) that will get them over the line.

Maybe 5 or 6, more likely 7th or 8th.


My big bolter is the Eagles for much the same reasons outlined by other posters-4th to 6th.

I reckon North might improve in the short term too. They have a good list with a few young players who showed a bit last year. A new coach who seems a good fit for their club-North have always thrived under coaches who played the game hard-new facilities and a club united in one place for the first in a few years will have them jumping out of their skins-may make the 8.

[Missing Dog]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

It's hard to find where the improvement will come from at Carlton after losing their superstar goalkicker. The Blues forward 50 entries were dominated by Fevola and their next most lethal forward is a livewire pocket named Eddie Betts who was made a better player by having Fevola next to him. Perhaps the unpredictability may work for them but I fail to see where the goals are going to come from. They might play finals but just as likely to miss.

I believe Geelong will lose their invincibility and the aura that surrounds them next season. Don't get me wrong they will still have the quality to play finals and beat most sides on any given day but I expect the competition to slowly catch them and I think the Cats depth or lack of will be tested at times throughout the year.

Hawthorn is a funny one, premiers one year and missing the finals the next. I expect the Hawks will find themselves settling somewhere in between their past two seasons efforts, they rate themselves higher than what they really are, finals yes but not top 4.

Brisbane, the great unknown! They were some way off the top sides and have they really added much? Yes, Fevola and Brown are a very dangerous duo but so was Bradshaw & Brown. Fevola only managed roughly an extra 20 goals on top of Bradshaws contribution this season. Key forwards were never an issue for the Lions, it was the fact they lacked other forward options to assist on the scoreboard that hurt them. They would argue Buchanan & possibly Clarke could address this but they are no guarantees. On top of all that they still lack the depth and quality in their midfield, they rely too heavily on Black & Power and don't get enough support from Johnstone and to a lesser extent Brennan.

Finally, others have addressed it already but I expect WCE to play finals in 2010. They have a good balanced young list, they have excellent resources and despite what has gone on in the past they have a successful, winning culture and mindset.

[Remi Moses]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Bolters I think will be West Coast even though late season form can be a furfy,just reckon they showed signs in our game that thet are arriving again

Sliders - The Navy Colluding cheats just don't know where they're goals are going to come from. O'halipan [pleaseee!] Fisher [no!] . Not overly impressed with their back 6 either they rely heavily on undersized key defenders Jamieson and Thornton.

[Remi Moses]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

The Pies could be the danger to our top 3 spot in my opinion. They picked up a very competitive ruckman and a solid midfielder.

I agree they'll go well. Their defence relies on Presti to much for mine,they need Brown to step up. I also think their midfield needs a bit of dash got alot of the same type

[Go_Dogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I think Hawthorn will be a big bolter (I probably would have gone for WC too - but as everyone else has!) as they have added a couple of players who should improve their performance, and should get a lot more out of their established players. They have a few good kids coming through such as my boy Schoenmakers who is apparently looking huge and a genuine chance to hold down a key defensive role.

Add Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson to the mix and they really have added some speed and polish in Burgoyne and another key defender in Gibson who I actually think is a fairly handy player.

Their one major weakness again seems to be the rucking department, but they have improved their defence and their forward line and midfield will again be very good.


Not really sure about any sliders, Carlton, Essendon and Brisbane would be my tips. I can't really see any of Geelong, St Kilda, Collingwood or Adelaide sliding. Whilst Brisbane might, I get a feeling they'll probably hold ground at worst and probably improve a little on their 2009.

[Mofra]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Hawks & WCE to bolt - still not convinced by the Hawk's defensive stocks but they are strong elsewhere.

Carlton to slide, and Essendon to fall as well. Both teams will struggle in the F50 and Carlton's defensive 6 look undersized against some teams as well.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Looking at the summary, it's pretty hard to predict!

I think the obvious slider will be Carlton (potentially even bottom 4 if the season starts badly for them or a key injury or two hits), but beyond that it's hard to say.

My gut says that the Saints will slide too -- their gameplan is no longer 'new' and, with all due respect to Hayes and their half-back line, they still rely more on St. Nick than almost any other team does on one single player, and that can't be a good thing. They won't drop far though -- still top 4 for mine.

Geelong I see in danger of missing the top 4. Their midfield is as good as any, but an aging defence and lack of quality key position dangermen up forward sounds like the Dogs of 2-3 years ago.. much will depend on Mooney's form. Regardless of their final ladder position, though, they will still be a very dangerous team come finals.

Bolters are far harder to pick -- the bottom 10 this year were pretty even, and it's hard to see much changing. Hawthorn is a far weaker side than their premiership team and they don't have any magic game-plan to take them places this time.. much will depend on Franklin's form, but I don't think they'll be making too many waves in the near future (if anything, I think they're on the wane). Despite the hype so far on this thread, I'm not convinced about WCE either -- their late season form flatters to deceive, I would suggest. Cox's dominance is no longer as pronounced in an era of more mobile big men and Kerr can't hold a one-paced team together on his own.

Adelaide do look the goods and I think are a monty to be top 4. My other surprise bolter is -- wait for it -- Richmond. I don't think they'll make the 8 or anything, but I don't think they'll be bottom 2 again either. The complete lack of expectation on them (for a change!) can only be a good thing, and there's some talent down the spine and in the middle, so I expect they would win around 10 games this year, which would be a huge improvement on 2009.

---

ps. is going from third to winning the premiership 'bolting'? Go Dogs!

[Dazza]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I think Carlton and Essendon will slide. Essendon mainly due to having a pretty hard draw and losing Lloyd/Lucas/Mcphee. Carlton for obvious reasons. I've heard a few people spruiking it up saying they will have to play like the bulldogs next year with multiple avenues to goal but the talent to do it isn't there IMO.

Bolters are a bit harder to pick but you'd think Hawthorn would rise up the rankings.

[ledge]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Slider- Collingwood.
Bolter-Melbourne.
Collingwood i see as being a side that has no stars but plays well as a team, a Malthouse trait, but after so many years of doing well and not getting high draft picks it takes its toll.

Ball a star? Overrated in my opinion, if he was as good as the press and Eddie say, why was he playing seconds at the Saints?
Melbourne have some really good kids i see them improving, maybe not finals but moving up to 9th.

[boydogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I actually don't think there will be that much change:

St Kilda 1 > 3
Geelong 2 > 4
WB 3 > 1
Collingwood 4 > 5
Adelaide 5 > 2
BL 6 > 9
Carlton 7 > 10
Essendon 8 > 7

Hawthorn 9 > 6
Port 10 > 12
WCE 11 > 8
Sydney 12 > 14
North 13 > 11
Freo 14 > 13
Richmond 15 > 15
Melbourne 16 > 16

I have no side moving more than 3 places. Hawthorn & West Coast into the 8, Brisbane and Carlton out. Mainly due to the age of their best players & quality of young talent.

The same top 5 as last year, but different Grand Finalists and premier