The model for sustained success?

[Go_Dogs]

There is a lot of talk floating around that this year, and perhaps next year are our last chances to win the flag. I can understand why some are saying this. We have a few aging stars, in Johnson and Akermanis, as well as Hudson, Eagleton and now Hall.

Our next tier of players are starting to get on a bit too. By the time the 2012 season kicks off, Hahn, Giansiracusa, Murphy are going to be in that 29+ bracket, and all have question marks over their long term durability.

Lake, Morris, Boyd, Gilbee, Cross and Hargrave are going to be in, or approaching, that age bracket also. The durability of these guys seems a little better, although with Lake's hip he is still a query.

Our next bracket of players will potentially be targeted by incoming sides, or FA. We have some terrific talent there, but maintaining substantial chunks of that is going to be a task. Towards the younger end of the scale we have guys like Ward, Reid, and Wood who are coming through, as well as hopefully our 2009 draft selections, and a few F/S picks and other draftees taken over the next couple of years.

So, how do we go about easing the transition, and what plans do we need to put in place to achieve some sustained success once our older blokes move on? Is it plausible?

In my opinion, it is. With good drafting and development of players, extensive work on our list management, shrewd trading and keeping the top quality people who coach, train and do the off field work - it can happen. The salary cap, free agency and draft concessions will all conspire against us - that's the nature of the beast. But I think we are just starting to run our race, and hopefully the blokes 25 and under on our list can see the light at the end of the Dad's Army tunnel.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The model for sustained success?

Adelaide are a decent side every year..
Sure they haven't made the finals every year over the past decade, but they've been close and always been rated as an outside chance for the flag at the beginning of the year..

[Go_Dogs]

Re: The model for sustained success?

Adelaide are a decent side every year..
Sure they haven't made the finals every year over the past decade, but they've been close and always been rated as an outside chance for the flag at the beginning of the year..

Agreed. They have shown us that a sustainable model is possible, albeit with a pretty solid home ground advantage. Still though, they trade, recruit and train well and continually are around the mark.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The model for sustained success?

Agreed. They have shown us that a sustainable model is possible, albeit with a pretty solid home ground advantage. Still though, they trade, recruit and train well and continually are around the mark.

Which shows that it is possible..
All we can do as supporters is show a bit of faith in the recruiting department and pray for gun players with the picks we gain.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: The model for sustained success?

Nice post Griff. I've heard many opposition supporters say that this is our last chance too. I really don't agree with it at all though. It's short sighted; we'll need to keep improving our list, but who doesn't?

A nucleus of Cooney, Griffen, Higgins, Ward, Hill, Everitt, Reid, Wood and F/S picks (Libba, Wallace) holds our mids in arguably a better state than it currently is. I expect Cross/Boyd to still be doing well enough too.

Minson is still young and he's a solid ruck option that should only get better. Roughead is very promising and looks like a real find. We'll need to add another one or two rucks over the next few years (depending on Cordy) but I think we're well positioned.

The back half should still be fairly solid with most of the players in the 26-30 age group. Hopefully Howard is able to step up in a couple of years as that would be a real boost. Harbrow is still young too. We need to find another couple of KPD's which is still the biggest hole in the side currently. Recruiting another solid medium defender is important too and something we may look at next year. Perhaps another Morris type can be found in the VFL or another state league. With careful management - our back half should be still strong but it does need some additions in the next 2 years.

Our forward half should be manageable with the flexibility of our midfielders. Cooney and Higgins can both play up forward whilst Ward/Wood might be able to in future years. Hill and Everitt should be in their peak whilst we've got Jones, Grant and Cordy in the wings. They might not all make it, but they've got plenty of talent and Jones looks very capable at an early age. If two of these can stand up - it'll be an enormous boost. Over the next 1-2 years we need to recruit some medium/small forwards but luckily for us, this hasn't proven too difficult for most clubs. They're generally the easiest type of player to find at both U18 level and senior level. I'd expect this to be a smooth transition.

The biggest threat to sustaining success is undoubtedly free agency. It's crucial we keep the younger batch of players because it won't take a whole lot of drafting and shifting to build a team around them. If we start losing players like Cooney, Harbrow or Hill - it's going to be a real struggle to remain at the top IMO. If we keep them, I am pretty confident we can keep plugging up the holes in the list over the next couple of years. The biggest need is KPD's - we need two more (Assuming Mulligan and Markovic don't make it).

[AndrewP6]

Re: The model for sustained success?

I think the key is development... We've got to start getting blokes the likes of Wood, Reid, Hill, Roughy, etc... pushing into our side, and taking the game on. Admittedly I'm a pessimist, but I'm not sure we're going to be able to maintain a top 4 spot in a couple of years - that is, unless said players make some big leaps. I think it's a huge problem that 3 of our best players are in their early thirties and most likely won't be around in a couple of seasons, and a good chunk as you've said, will be in a similar position in a couple of years...leaving massive holes in the side. I hope the younger brigade prove me wrong, and can slide right in when their time comes.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The model for sustained success?

To win a flag you have to have many things go right, not the least of which is not having injuries. Assembling a side that can take the chance and remain at the top is a combination of freakish fitness, character and mental strength, apart from the obvious skills required. Who is to know if players can remain at the top or if the hunger is still there after a bruising and battering year or two? I suspect that if we disappoint this year, it will be hard for a number of players to front up again and then are the younger ones ready?

[Missing Dog]

Re: The model for sustained success?

One thing I have always enjoyed with Eade is that despite the fact that we have been active in trading for players who could add to the group we have also not compromised our first round draft picks in the process. This has enabled quality kids to continue to come through the ranks while addressing immediate needs. Also despite the fact that we have fielded a strong competitive side he has also been able to balance that with playing guys like Hill, Grant & Stack ahead of schedule in order to fast track their development.

[Bornadog]

Re: The model for sustained success?

There has to be a balance and a good spread of players in each bracket ie young, middle and older players. My only concern is the number of players we have in the 28 to 33 year olds and whether we have enough in the bracket below to replace the ones that will disappear at the end of the year. It does come down to good list management, good recruiting and a bit of luck (eg injuries etc). Adelaide certainly has proven that and have a good model. I am not sure we have the right model, but no doubt we are working towards that, particularly with the recruiting we have done in the 2009 draft.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: The model for sustained success?

Some great responses here everyone, thanks a lot.

It seems that most believe that it is plausible to have sustained success. Drafting and trading seems to be the cornerstones in most people's eyes, which I think is fair enough, as well with player development which is obviously crucial, as once the talent has been identified we need to improve weaknesses and ready the players for AFL footy.

Free Agency is also going to be the devil, acting to prevent sustained success. The flip side is, if we are having sustained success, we could potentially attract players (like Akermanis, and Hall) to come and join a successful side in the twilight of their careers, so it can work both ways.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The model for sustained success?

I think our midfield will be solid, and even the backline. However, our forward line is where I hold most of my concerns. Who will replace Johnson, Hall, Aker? Hahn and Murphy aren't getting any younger. I also seriously doubt that Jarrad Grant will make the cut as an AFL footballer. Where are all of these other forwards?

I really would like sustained success in this club, by that I mean making a finals appearance every year, or at least being competitive. I don't want the club to have to go through the processes of rebuilding a list which ultimately means bottoming out for a few years.