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2010 AFL Season – Round 4 Match Preview
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
GABBA, Brisbane
Saturday 17 April 2010, 7:10pm
Last 3 times they have met
Round 1 2010 NAB Cup, Manuka Oval ACT.
W BULLDOGS 0.0.4 0.1.8 0.4.14 1.5.14 (53)
BRISBANE LIONS 1.1.3 1.3.6 1.3.6 1.5.6 (45)
The opening game of the NAB Cup was reduced to an old fashioned slog due to the torrential rain that had hit Canberra in the days leading up to the match.
In a game where endeavour and effort would have a bigger factor than genuine skill, the Lions looked the better of the two teams for the first two quarters. The Dogs regained the ascendency in the third quarter kicking 3.6, and in the end a 9 pointer from a Griffen 50 metre penalty proved to be the difference in a tight finish.
Semi Final 2009, MCG.
W BULLDOGS 4.2 6.6 11.8 16.11 (107)
BRISBANE LIONS 0.6 3.7 5.7 8.8 (56)
After a disappointing loss to the Cats the week before, the Dogs bounced back with an emphatic performance over the Lions to propel them into a second consecutive Preliminary Final. The Dogs midfield gained the ascendency early on and the back half were able to repel Brisbane attack. Gilbee, Hargrave,Cooney, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Eagleton were prominent, and Hahn was on target in front of goal with 4 straight for the game.
Round 20, GABBA, Brisbane 2009
BRISBANE LIONS 2.3 4.8 8.8 12.12 (84)
W BULLDOGS 5.2 10.5 13.10 15.12 (102)
The Dogs looked to be easing to a comfortable win at 3Qtr time, before the Lions reduced the gap to 2 kicks late in the game. A moment of Aker brilliance against his old team proved to be the final nail in the coffin sealing an 18 point win. Eagleton, Cooney, Boyd, Lake and Harbrow were very good on the night for the Dogs.
Preamble
The Lions have started the season with three solid wins against West Coast, Carlton and Port, to sit 3-0 going into this game. The form of Jonathon Brown has been outstanding and he looms large as the game-breaker this week. Whilst not as prolific as JB the addition of Fevola has also been a success so far.
Michael Voss has already stated that the Lions see this week as a chance to prove their credentials and gain some credibility for their premiership aspirations, against a Bulldogs outfit that is being touted as a legitimate flag threat.
The Dogs have a good record in recent years at the GABBA, and Voss will be keen to restore the distinct advantage the Lions enjoyed at fortress GABBATOIR.
On the flipside, the Dogs sit with a 2-1 win/loss ratio, but have yet to produce a 4 quarter performance and will be desperate to continue their recent dominance over Brisbane and reaffirm their position amongst the league heavyweights.
Eade will be aware we will be entering this clash on the back of a brutal game against the Hawks and also with a short 6 day break. I expect he will be putting the acid on the team to start producing the kind of performance expected of a top team.
Adding to the intrigue is the fact that both teams will be wrestling with key selection issues leading up to the game due to injuries and suspensions.
Selection table - Bulldogs
A bruising encounter with the Hawks on Sunday has left the Dogs with a few selection headaches, namely with Picken and Akermanis definite non starters, and a slight question mark over Hargrave.
Players who come into contention for Picken's spot would be Addison or Wood.
A concern with either proposed ins are that they are not in great form, but with injuries to Ward and Reid there are not a lot of obvious alternatives. Perhaps highlighting a depth problem going forward?
Eagleton seems to be the logical inclusion for Akermanis. Supporting the Eagle's claim are his good recent performances against the Lions, and the need for a runner who can gut run back and forth along the expanses of the GABBA's flanks.
The other dilemma facing the Dogs selection committee is whether skipper Brad Johnson is injury/virus free. His lack of match fitness will also be a crucial factor in determining whether or not they decide to risk him for the journey to Brisbane.
Further complicating matters with Johnson, is team balance. I think we went into Round 1 with one too few midfielders, and I therefore think that Moles is required, even more so with Picken and Aker being out. Therefore the only real choice to make way for Johnno is Hill.
Personally, I think we need Hill this week, and I think the game too vital to risk what must be a severely underdone Johnno.
Adding to the drama, is Eade's publically stated frustration with Will Minson's performances, particularly his goal kicking and his conceding two 50 metre penalties. Does Eade risk throwing young Roughead into the fray, or is big Will to receive another chance to atone?
Selection table - Lions
The Lions have accepted the sentences handed out to Mitch Clark and Ashley McGrath, but will welcome back Jarred Brennan from his one week lay-off.
With Clark's absence Brisbane will need to juggle Brennan and possible Staker to support Leuenberger in the ruck. Either Proud or Hanley look to be the likely beneficiaries of McGrath's suspension.
Perhaps the Lions biggest concern is the availability of Simon Black who sustained a calf injury against Port, and is rated a 50-50 chance to play. I suspect he will play, but the Lions must be concerned about the prospect of him breaking down in a game where the Dogs already seem on paper to have a significant advantage in the midfield.
The Lions could not afford him break down during the game and therefore lose a midfield rotation.
Key Match-ups
I think our game strategy for victory revolves firstly and undeniably around limiting the danger of Brown and Fevola.
To this end our stoppage work becomes vital as well as shutting down Brisbane's premier on-baller in Simon Black (assuming he plays). This will go some way to preventing the outside runners such as Johnstone and Power, and to some degree Rischitelli.
On the other side of the coin and assuming the above gives us midfield dominance, we need to look to attack smartly- ie Not being Hall conscious where he is double teamed, and to use a player who can force Brisbane's best rebounding defender in Drummond to stay closer to home.
So with these points in mind, here are my proposed key match-ups that I think can be critical in providing us with a successful excursion to the GABBATOIR.
Jonathon Brown v Lake/Williams
In scintillating form and a big performer at the GABBA, JB looms as the one key player the Dogs need to contain. I think that Lake will tend to stay within the 30-40 metre arc, and will allow Brown to roam further up field, where Williams will then take over marking duties.
From memory it was Williams who went to Brown in Rnd 20 last year in this role and performed well.
If this works out for the Dogs it will also allow Lake to support Morris on Fevola and may also give Lake the freedom to run off Brown and counter attack any Brisbane turnovers within their forward 50.
Containing Brown's output to 3 goals would go a long way to helping the Dogs to a win.
Brendan Fevola v Morris
Morris has been troubled by Fevola in previous occasions, and the success or failure of this matchup depends to a large extent on Williams ability to curtail JB's output further up field and also on the speed of delivery into Brisbane's forward line.
If the delivery is slow, Lake will be able to drop back and support Morris and quell Fev's influence.
If on the other hand the Lions are able to provide quick movement into their forward line then this will allow Fev to exert an influence and as a knock on effect it may allow JB to exert a game winning influence as Eade is forced to shuffle the defensive match ups.
Hudson/Minson v Leuenberger/Brennan/Staker?
As a platform for preventing the Lions midfield from getting first use and quick delivery to Fev and Brown it is essential for Hudson and Minson to grind down Leuenberger early and ensure that Boyd, Cross and Cooney get the ball first for us.
Given Leuenberger's height advantage Hudson's second efforts on the deck following ruck contests (particularly in the middle) are going to be important in nullifying his influence.
Around the ground Cross and Griffen may be required to act as a third man up, especially when Jarred Brennan is contesting the ruck, as his agility advantage over Hudson and Minson could result in him palming the ball to their advantage and bring Brisbane's outside mids in Johnstone and Power into the game.
Black v Addison
This match up may not pan out, however I think this is a great opportunity for Addison.
Black is the leader of the Brisbane midfielder and can both get in and under as well as use the ball well. Stopping him would be a crucial step in gaining midfield ascendency, and I think we need to do all we can to disrupt him and physically harass him.
Come on down Dylan Addison.
We know his limitations (poor disposal) and we know his strengths (attack on the ball and man) and by assigning him to a purely negative role we can highlight the latter and minimise the former and hopefully reduce Blacks influence.
Hill v Drummond.
Drummond is a great user of the ball and is the Lions version of Gilbee in that they rely on his precise kicking to break zones and set up counter attacks from down back.
By assigning Hill to Drummond it would give Drummond some need to be accountable knowing that Hill has the ability (if not the consistency) to hurt the Lions on the scoreboard as well as be an aerial target. Hill has the speed and when on song can effectively exert defensive pressure within the forward half of the ground.
Hall v Merrett
Hall has a task here as Merrett is a quality defender who has the strength to go with Hall one on one as well as compete on the lead.
As we have seen in the season to date, when our ball movement up the field is slick and quick, Hall can find space and is a major threat. When it is slow and sloppy teams are able to gang up on Hall and reduce his influence.
We have in the first two rounds especially the propensity of the Dogs to keep going to Hall even when he is double or triple teamed. We need to learn from this and our ball carriers utilise other free players when they see Hall double teamed.
X-Factor
Will the Dogs click into gear and produce the kind of four quarter performances required to be considered alongside the top contenders?
The intensity was better against the Hawks, but our disposal needs to be smarter.
I would love to see Griffen back up his solid performance last week with a repeat performance. If he can get off the chain Hall could see the slick delivery that allows him to have an influence.
For the Lions Fev and Brown are the obvious threats, but I've also been impressed by young Banfield, he has genuine footy smarts and for a young player has good strength.
Brennan is the perennial X-Factor, he can do the mercurial when on song, which can then bring the Brisbane crowd into the contest.
Verdict
I think the Dogs have more to lose and will be striving for improvement/consistency across the team and I think that the Lions have yet to be tested by a quality midfield.
The Lions will go hard early on the back of Voss's determination to show the Lions are a legitimate threat. However I think that we will increasingly wear them down and our midfield superiority should see us home
Dogs by 5 goals.
Brisbane Lions v Western Bulldogs
GABBA, Brisbane
Saturday 17 April 2010, 7:10pm
Last 3 times they have met
Round 1 2010 NAB Cup, Manuka Oval ACT.
W BULLDOGS 0.0.4 0.1.8 0.4.14 1.5.14 (53)
BRISBANE LIONS 1.1.3 1.3.6 1.3.6 1.5.6 (45)
The opening game of the NAB Cup was reduced to an old fashioned slog due to the torrential rain that had hit Canberra in the days leading up to the match.
In a game where endeavour and effort would have a bigger factor than genuine skill, the Lions looked the better of the two teams for the first two quarters. The Dogs regained the ascendency in the third quarter kicking 3.6, and in the end a 9 pointer from a Griffen 50 metre penalty proved to be the difference in a tight finish.
Semi Final 2009, MCG.
W BULLDOGS 4.2 6.6 11.8 16.11 (107)
BRISBANE LIONS 0.6 3.7 5.7 8.8 (56)
After a disappointing loss to the Cats the week before, the Dogs bounced back with an emphatic performance over the Lions to propel them into a second consecutive Preliminary Final. The Dogs midfield gained the ascendency early on and the back half were able to repel Brisbane attack. Gilbee, Hargrave,Cooney, Higgins, Giansiracusa and Eagleton were prominent, and Hahn was on target in front of goal with 4 straight for the game.
Round 20, GABBA, Brisbane 2009
BRISBANE LIONS 2.3 4.8 8.8 12.12 (84)
W BULLDOGS 5.2 10.5 13.10 15.12 (102)
The Dogs looked to be easing to a comfortable win at 3Qtr time, before the Lions reduced the gap to 2 kicks late in the game. A moment of Aker brilliance against his old team proved to be the final nail in the coffin sealing an 18 point win. Eagleton, Cooney, Boyd, Lake and Harbrow were very good on the night for the Dogs.
Preamble
The Lions have started the season with three solid wins against West Coast, Carlton and Port, to sit 3-0 going into this game. The form of Jonathon Brown has been outstanding and he looms large as the game-breaker this week. Whilst not as prolific as JB the addition of Fevola has also been a success so far.
Michael Voss has already stated that the Lions see this week as a chance to prove their credentials and gain some credibility for their premiership aspirations, against a Bulldogs outfit that is being touted as a legitimate flag threat.
The Dogs have a good record in recent years at the GABBA, and Voss will be keen to restore the distinct advantage the Lions enjoyed at fortress GABBATOIR.
On the flipside, the Dogs sit with a 2-1 win/loss ratio, but have yet to produce a 4 quarter performance and will be desperate to continue their recent dominance over Brisbane and reaffirm their position amongst the league heavyweights.
Eade will be aware we will be entering this clash on the back of a brutal game against the Hawks and also with a short 6 day break. I expect he will be putting the acid on the team to start producing the kind of performance expected of a top team.
Adding to the intrigue is the fact that both teams will be wrestling with key selection issues leading up to the game due to injuries and suspensions.
Selection table - Bulldogs
A bruising encounter with the Hawks on Sunday has left the Dogs with a few selection headaches, namely with Picken and Akermanis definite non starters, and a slight question mark over Hargrave.
Players who come into contention for Picken's spot would be Addison or Wood.
A concern with either proposed ins are that they are not in great form, but with injuries to Ward and Reid there are not a lot of obvious alternatives. Perhaps highlighting a depth problem going forward?
Eagleton seems to be the logical inclusion for Akermanis. Supporting the Eagle's claim are his good recent performances against the Lions, and the need for a runner who can gut run back and forth along the expanses of the GABBA's flanks.
The other dilemma facing the Dogs selection committee is whether skipper Brad Johnson is injury/virus free. His lack of match fitness will also be a crucial factor in determining whether or not they decide to risk him for the journey to Brisbane.
Further complicating matters with Johnson, is team balance. I think we went into Round 1 with one too few midfielders, and I therefore think that Moles is required, even more so with Picken and Aker being out. Therefore the only real choice to make way for Johnno is Hill.
Personally, I think we need Hill this week, and I think the game too vital to risk what must be a severely underdone Johnno.
Adding to the drama, is Eade's publically stated frustration with Will Minson's performances, particularly his goal kicking and his conceding two 50 metre penalties. Does Eade risk throwing young Roughead into the fray, or is big Will to receive another chance to atone?
Selection table - Lions
The Lions have accepted the sentences handed out to Mitch Clark and Ashley McGrath, but will welcome back Jarred Brennan from his one week lay-off.
With Clark's absence Brisbane will need to juggle Brennan and possible Staker to support Leuenberger in the ruck. Either Proud or Hanley look to be the likely beneficiaries of McGrath's suspension.
Perhaps the Lions biggest concern is the availability of Simon Black who sustained a calf injury against Port, and is rated a 50-50 chance to play. I suspect he will play, but the Lions must be concerned about the prospect of him breaking down in a game where the Dogs already seem on paper to have a significant advantage in the midfield.
The Lions could not afford him break down during the game and therefore lose a midfield rotation.
Key Match-ups
I think our game strategy for victory revolves firstly and undeniably around limiting the danger of Brown and Fevola.
To this end our stoppage work becomes vital as well as shutting down Brisbane's premier on-baller in Simon Black (assuming he plays). This will go some way to preventing the outside runners such as Johnstone and Power, and to some degree Rischitelli.
On the other side of the coin and assuming the above gives us midfield dominance, we need to look to attack smartly- ie Not being Hall conscious where he is double teamed, and to use a player who can force Brisbane's best rebounding defender in Drummond to stay closer to home.
So with these points in mind, here are my proposed key match-ups that I think can be critical in providing us with a successful excursion to the GABBATOIR.
Jonathon Brown v Lake/Williams
In scintillating form and a big performer at the GABBA, JB looms as the one key player the Dogs need to contain. I think that Lake will tend to stay within the 30-40 metre arc, and will allow Brown to roam further up field, where Williams will then take over marking duties.
From memory it was Williams who went to Brown in Rnd 20 last year in this role and performed well.
If this works out for the Dogs it will also allow Lake to support Morris on Fevola and may also give Lake the freedom to run off Brown and counter attack any Brisbane turnovers within their forward 50.
Containing Brown's output to 3 goals would go a long way to helping the Dogs to a win.
Brendan Fevola v Morris
Morris has been troubled by Fevola in previous occasions, and the success or failure of this matchup depends to a large extent on Williams ability to curtail JB's output further up field and also on the speed of delivery into Brisbane's forward line.
If the delivery is slow, Lake will be able to drop back and support Morris and quell Fev's influence.
If on the other hand the Lions are able to provide quick movement into their forward line then this will allow Fev to exert an influence and as a knock on effect it may allow JB to exert a game winning influence as Eade is forced to shuffle the defensive match ups.
Hudson/Minson v Leuenberger/Brennan/Staker?
As a platform for preventing the Lions midfield from getting first use and quick delivery to Fev and Brown it is essential for Hudson and Minson to grind down Leuenberger early and ensure that Boyd, Cross and Cooney get the ball first for us.
Given Leuenberger's height advantage Hudson's second efforts on the deck following ruck contests (particularly in the middle) are going to be important in nullifying his influence.
Around the ground Cross and Griffen may be required to act as a third man up, especially when Jarred Brennan is contesting the ruck, as his agility advantage over Hudson and Minson could result in him palming the ball to their advantage and bring Brisbane's outside mids in Johnstone and Power into the game.
Black v Addison
This match up may not pan out, however I think this is a great opportunity for Addison.
Black is the leader of the Brisbane midfielder and can both get in and under as well as use the ball well. Stopping him would be a crucial step in gaining midfield ascendency, and I think we need to do all we can to disrupt him and physically harass him.
Come on down Dylan Addison.
We know his limitations (poor disposal) and we know his strengths (attack on the ball and man) and by assigning him to a purely negative role we can highlight the latter and minimise the former and hopefully reduce Blacks influence.
Hill v Drummond.
Drummond is a great user of the ball and is the Lions version of Gilbee in that they rely on his precise kicking to break zones and set up counter attacks from down back.
By assigning Hill to Drummond it would give Drummond some need to be accountable knowing that Hill has the ability (if not the consistency) to hurt the Lions on the scoreboard as well as be an aerial target. Hill has the speed and when on song can effectively exert defensive pressure within the forward half of the ground.
Hall v Merrett
Hall has a task here as Merrett is a quality defender who has the strength to go with Hall one on one as well as compete on the lead.
As we have seen in the season to date, when our ball movement up the field is slick and quick, Hall can find space and is a major threat. When it is slow and sloppy teams are able to gang up on Hall and reduce his influence.
We have in the first two rounds especially the propensity of the Dogs to keep going to Hall even when he is double or triple teamed. We need to learn from this and our ball carriers utilise other free players when they see Hall double teamed.
X-Factor
Will the Dogs click into gear and produce the kind of four quarter performances required to be considered alongside the top contenders?
The intensity was better against the Hawks, but our disposal needs to be smarter.
I would love to see Griffen back up his solid performance last week with a repeat performance. If he can get off the chain Hall could see the slick delivery that allows him to have an influence.
For the Lions Fev and Brown are the obvious threats, but I've also been impressed by young Banfield, he has genuine footy smarts and for a young player has good strength.
Brennan is the perennial X-Factor, he can do the mercurial when on song, which can then bring the Brisbane crowd into the contest.
Verdict
I think the Dogs have more to lose and will be striving for improvement/consistency across the team and I think that the Lions have yet to be tested by a quality midfield.
The Lions will go hard early on the back of Voss's determination to show the Lions are a legitimate threat. However I think that we will increasingly wear them down and our midfield superiority should see us home
Dogs by 5 goals.
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