Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

[Mantis]

comrade's bit:

INTRODUCTION
We’ve been smashed by 100 points. We’ve lost Morris. We’ve lost Cooney. Hutchy says our window has closed. Crawf reckons we can’t win anything for at least 4 years.

Woe is Bulldogs.

Harden up, I say. It’s September.

It would be fair to say that we enter the finals in opposite fashion to our opponents. Collingwood won the minor premiership and have almost a fully healthy list to choose from. We’ve had to deal with injuries to key players, thyroiditis and a fairly public sacking to a fairly public persona in the run home. Not ideal.

But, we’re still top 4!

Does anyone need reminding that the Dogs are still a genuine premiership chance? For all the doom and gloom, we win this game and the Bulldogs are into their third preliminary final in a row, no mean feat in itself in a very even competition.

Last time they met:

Round 11, 2010, Docklands
Collingwood 17.11 113 def. Western Bulldogs 16.7 103

After an insipid loss to the Bombers, the Bulldogs again lacked bite against a quality opponent with defensive pressure almost non-existent for 3 quarters.

By stopping our run from the back line and completely dominating the stoppages, the Pies were able to get out to a 37 point lead at three quarter time.

With the game out of reach, positional changes were made; most notably, Brian was sent forward, changing our attacking structure and forcing the Collingwood defence to more accountable. Winning the ball from the back line and running it through the corridor, we were able to separate the defence and score, bringing the margin back to 10 points at the final siren.

Interesting in that game we had 8 players with under 50 games experience vs Collingwood’s 6. We also had 5 players with 150+ games under their belt vs Collingwood’s 8.

Team Stats
Bulldogs

High Rankings

• Ranked 1st in Kicks Per Game
• Ranked 3rd in Disposals Per Game
• Ranked 3rd in Marks Per Game
• Ranked 3rd in Points Per Game
• Ranked 4th in least Opponent Points Per Game
• Ranked 3rd in least Opponent Tackles Per Game
• Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Hitouts Per Game
• Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.
• Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Disposals Per Game Diff.
• Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Marks Per Game Diff.
• Ranked 3rd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.

Low Rankings

• Ranked 16th in Tackles Per Game
• Ranked 14th in Hitouts Per Game

Collingwood

High Rankings

• Ranked 4th in Kicks Per Game
• Ranked 4th in Disposals Per Game
• Ranked 2nd in Points Per Game
• Ranked 1st in Tackles Per Game
• Ranked 2nd in least Opponent Points Per Game
• Ranked 1st in least Opponent Tackles Per Game
• Ranked 4th in Team to Opponent Kicks Per Game Diff.
• Ranked 2nd in Team to Opponent Points Per Game Diff.
• Ranked 1st in Team to Opponent Tackles Per Game Diff.

Low Rankings

• Ranked 15th in Hitouts Per Game
• Ranked 12th in least Opponent Handballs Per Game
• Ranked 12th in Team to Opponent Hitouts Per Game Diff.

Statistical insight

Both teams play a high possession game, ranking 3rd and 4th in total disposals. Whilst both teams have blue collar midfields that are prepared to do the tough stuff, both teams are also good at restricting opposition tackles.
The major difference is that Collingwood are tackling machines ranking number 1 in the competition. This is in stark contrast to the Bulldogs who lay less tackles than any other team.
If we are to be competitive, you would think our tackle count has to match or exceed Collingwood’s. Allowing them to play an uncontested style would be football suicide.

Our Backline

In both games this year, our run from the back line has been stifled. In games where Collingwood have looked vulnerable this year (Melbourne x2, Geelong for patches, Hawthorn), they have been sliced open with quick, precise kick ins and then penetrated through the corridor.

When their back line doesn’t have time to set up, they’re susceptible one on one.
It starts from the kick in. Holding the ball up against Collingwood is playing into their hands because they set up their defensive structure to force teams wide.

There has been plenty of discussion about our structure and I think that mjp has it spot on. 8 defenders to rotate through the defensive half. This has two benefits:

1. it blocks up the space and doesn’t allow cheats like Davis and Didak to get free goal side
2. it potentially allows us to manipulate match ups so we have 2 of Lake, Gilbee or Murphy free

Key Match Ups

Travis Cloke v Tom Williams

Why is it a key?

Cloke is a talisman. If he plays well and gets involved early, things seem to click in to the place for Collingwood. Stopping him will go a long way to turning this game in to a slog.

Tom has put together a solid season and will be required to have a blinder against Collingwood’s number #1 tall forward.
Similar to Cam Mooney, Cloke leads so high up the field and regularly starts attacking chains on the wing or half back line. Tommy has the athletic capabilities to at least give a contest and needs to ensure Cloke is denied the ball. If he gets his ‘mojo’ going, we will be in for a tough night.

Brian Lake vs no one/Dawes

Why is it a key?

Brian reads the ball better than any other defender (usually). His ability to stop opposition attacks and then set up our own have been missing in our previous two games against the Pies.

Ideally Brian gets to play as the designated loose man and support the likes of Hahn and Shaggy who may be forced to play on bigger opponents. Mick will send Dawes to him and make him accountable – he has a vice like grip and is very strong, but Lake has a chance to peel off. Let’s hope he is switched on.

Harbrow vs Beams

Why is it a key?

Harbrow has been beaten the last two times. His ability to break free and use his pace to set up attacks will be critical in actually scoring on the night.

I like this match up a lot more than Harbrow vs Davis, particularly with Harbrow’s inability to get his shoulders above his head to spoil. Beams plays high and gets into the midfield which I think suits us.

When Beams gets sucked in to ball chasing, it will allow Harbrow to stay on the defensive side and play a clean-up role which he does well (1 hand scoop, blaze away). With his pace and footwork, he will be a key to us breaking the game open and he needs to kick WELL.

Murphy vs Leon Davis

Davis has murdered Harbrow the last 2 times and we need to change it up. I suspect that Macaffer may go to Murphy (or Gilbee) but if we can manipulate this match up at least we know that Murph will contest better in the air.

Leon’s defensive pressure is good, but I’d back Murph as the one guy in our back line that’s smart enough to find the space and use it well. His form heading in to September is superior to the last two year’s.

[Mantis]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Greystache's bit:

Midfield vs Midfield

Along with restricting Collingwood’s run out of defence and making them accountable, the midfield battle is where this game will be one and lost. Collingwood have a large number of players such as Didak, Thomas, Davis, and Beams who can play forward as well as rotate through the midfield, along with core onballers Pendlebury, Ball, Swan, and Wellingham. They have a strong ruck division with Jolley and support from Leigh Brown, and they also rotate heavily off the bench having the second most interchanges in the AFL this year behind us.

They have a healthy mix of in and under grunt types, along with pacey outside run and carry types, getting our match ups right will be imperative.

The Bulldogs midfield stakes have taken a hit in recent weeks with blue chip midfielder Adam Cooney out for the season, Shaun Higgins and Callan Ward recovering from ongoing injury concerns, and now doubt over the availability of Ryan Griffen mean our depth will be sorely tested. The People’s Beard has been a tower of strength all year in what is clearly the best of his 3 years at the club, not only for his ability to blanket the opposition’s ruckman but also for his ability to scrap for the ball at ground level and win clearances. Jordan Roughead has made huge strides forward this year with his athleticism and strong marking but a shoulder injury means he’ll be unavailable this week. Will Minson is likely to get a call up after showing strong form at Williamstown recently.

Our Achilles heel all year against top sides has been lack of accountability through the midfield and this will need to be an area we improve in dramatically if we are to win the battle.


Key Match ups

Boyd vs Swan
Swan is the key to Collingwood, some would suggest tagging Swan is essential but I think this is one match up we should go head to head. Let’s be honest Boyd has forgotten what it means to man up on his direct opponent, and given Swan’s disposal is questionable and his hard running is what wins him the majority of his possessions we should let Boyd run free and give to him wherever possible and try to make Malthouse force Swan to be accountable. Pushing further forward and impacting the scoreboard will be a key to making this happen, Boyd’s not a renowned goal kicker but has shown an ability to kick goals when the opportunity presents.

Picken vs Didak

Didak is undoubtedly Collingwood’s most dangerous midfielder/forward, he has pace and good foot skills, and has the ability to kick goals in quick succession if he’s given freedom. He has also shown a propensity to falter under the pressure of a big final, and also when given close attention of a tough and close checking tagger. He also comes into the game with a question mark on a shoulder injury, this makes him a prime candidate for our number one stopper. Picken to take him in the forward line, and also to follow him into the midfield, he needs to rough him up at every opportunity as well as attack him verbally. Didak is another who can be a front runner and if things don’t go his way he can lose focus on the football.

Cross vs Pendlebury/Wellingham

Pendlebury is Collingwood’s clearance king, he’s not blessed with blistering speed, but has quick hands and excellent peripheral vision, Cross needs to play a genuine shutdown role, paying particular attention to him at the stoppages. A nil all draw in this contest is a win for us and Cross needs to forget about trying to accumulate possessions. Wellingham has made considerable progress this year, he has the ability to win clearances and well as receive outside and Cross will need to be diligent in keeping him quiet.

Ward vs Thomas

Thomas is a player who loves to get out on his own and receive, he has pace and reasonable foot skills, but doesn’t like physical contact. Ward should line up opposed to him when in the midfield. Callan needs to play his own game, but when Collingwood has the ball he needs to use his body strength and attack on the footy and the man to make it a tough day at the office for Thomas.

The Rucks

The Beard on Jolley and Minson vs Brown are pretty even contests. Jolley is a danger when pushing forward, Hudson doesn’t really have the game to go with him so defensive matchups will be important, Hudson can play a role in this by dropping back into defensive 50m to fill space. His overheard marking has greatly improved this year and with Morris out some defensive marks will be a great benefit to a backline that will have their hands full defending.

Griffen The X Factor

The X factor for several reasons, Will he play? If so, how fit will he be? Griffen is the one midfielder with the pace to break the game open with run and carry. Collingwood don’t have a standout tagger and they will probably use a rotation of players to try and shut him down. The Bulldogs midfield group need to make it a priority to block and shepherd for Griffen to free him up as much as possible, this is something we’ve not been good at and it needs to change this week. Griffen having a standout game could be the difference between winning and losing and the team needs to do everything it can to help him.

Midfield Tactics

To win this game we basically need to out Collingwood Collingwood, we need to apply defensive pressure at a level unseen since the NAB Cup Grand Final, then counter attack with line breaking run and long kicking over the defensive press using players like Griffen and Eagleton. Eagleton’s record in tough fought game isn’t great, but his ability to break the lines and kick long will be vital. We need to ensure if we’re not winning the centre clearances, then we’re at least not losing badly, positioning players on the defensive side of the centre circle to prevent running centre clearances will be important, as will having players running in off the back of the centre square if begin to lose the clearances. Every player has to play a role, we cannot afford to have non-contributors this week.

[Mantis]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Sedat's bit:

Bulldog forwards vs. Magpie defenders

It’s only Wednesday but there are literally a dozen alternatives as to how our forward line and the Collingwood defensive unit will structure up on Saturday night. Will Higgins play? Will Johnson get up? Will Liam Jones be sacrificed before the finals? Is there any chance that Hooper could be a left-field selection to bolster a problem area for us? Do we run with a defensive forward to try and curb O’Brien, as other clubs have done in recent weeks? Will Presti get up and if so, who will be sacrificed to make way? What about Ben Johnson? I suspect there will be quite a bit of ducks and drakes between now and Saturday evening when the final line-ups are selected.

Collingwood’s running brigade out of defensive 50 has received a lot of accolades in season 2010 to date – fair enough too for the most part. The names O’Brien, Shaw, Maxwell, Goldsack and Toovey have been instrumental in transitioning opposition attacking thrusts into quick and decisive counter-attacks. Whilst they have been very strong in their own right, they have been greatly assisted by the pressure that the Collingwood forwards and midfield place on the opposition ball carrier, which results in haphazard forward 50 entries and easy pickings for O’Brien and co. Factoring in a forward line that is one of the worst in the competition at exerting defensive pressure, it adds up on paper to a comfortable night at the office for Collingwood’s back 6 unless we drastically change things up in the forward 50 (not just personnel but in attitude as well).

Personnel will be different by necessity with staple names in our forward 50 in the last couple of years, Hahn, Johnson and Akermanis, all highly likely not to be in there on Saturday night. And that is a positive from my personal perspective. Johnson in his present condition unfortunately will be a liability up forward for us and Hahn has regularly been torched on the rebound by Maxwell in recent matches between the teams. Anyway here are the match-ups as I think they will materialize on Saturday night:

Key match-ups

Hall v Presti/N Brown

You’ll get long odds on both Presti and N Brown playing in the same team on Saturday night so basically if Presti doesn’t come up, N Brown will be given the task of shutting down BBB. If Presti plays, I’d love to see Hall play a sacrificial game to try and draw Nick Maxwell to the dummy leads. Maxwell hates playing on direct opponents at the best of times so he will get on his bike as often as possible whenever Hall makes a move. This is where our delivery into forward 50 needs to be smart and composed. We possess smart forwards of the calibre of Higgins, Gia and Grant, all of whom have that rare ability to find space with smarts (Gia, Higgins) and speed (Grant). Whoever is left alone by Maxwell and Shaw is the player we need to spot up inside forward 50. Hall’s game will be compromised by the expected poor weather in any case so he could really open up the space for the rest of our forwards if used as a decoy for most of the night.

Grant v Maxwell

I believe Maxwell will ultimately go to Grant, but if I was Collingwood I would consider Ben Reid for the role instead, who has the pace to go with Grant on the lead. By contrast Maxwell doesn’t, and if he does zone off to chop out Presti, Grant can really hurt him on the scoreboard (not just his personal tally, but through scoring involvements). It is fair to say that Grant has improved significantly from when he last played against Collingwood in Round 11, and could catch his direct opponent cold. Maxwell is the one Collingwood defender I’m happy to see the ball in his hands because he does not create by foot, preferring just to clear the area as quickly as possible.

Addison v O’Brien

I really hope this materializes on the night. O’Brien has been the main source of rebounding for the Pies this season, and he has been curbed significantly in the last couple of weeks with plenty of defensive work put into him. Stop the run out of defence for Collingwood and one key plank in the system starts to break down, as evidenced by Collingwood’s most recent form. Addison performed admirably in this role last week on Stanton and has the necessary defensive mindset to stick to his task for the whole night. Picken might also be an option in this role but his talents will be required in the middle this week.

Higgins v Shaw

I’m nervous about this match-up but backing in Higgins to be fully recovered from his thyroiditis and able to cover the ground much better this week. Shaw does occasionally struggle when his opponent has a fast start on the scoreboard, something that Higgins certainly has the capacity to do. If the defensive tag is placed on O’Brien, expect to see the Pies try and release Shaw, which will make him play even looser on his direct opponent. Again if we’re half-smart, we’ll be able to spot up Higgins when Shaw does this. I’d love Hooper to be considered for such a role but I doubt very much that such a left-field decision will be made – it should be considered in the very least with the expected weather conditions on the night.

Gia v Goldsack/Ben Reid

Toovey used to play the traditional defensive half back role, but he has improved so much this season he spends most of his time these days up on the wing, so will likely have Eagleton for company instead. Goldsack was in top form a month ago (like most of his teammates) but has since struggled and might not make the cut for the final 22. That leaves Ben Reid to go with Gia. Don’t mind this match-up as Gia is quite good as losing his opponents and finding space inside forward 50.

I expect Liam Jones to be dropped, Brad Johnson not to be selected, Andrew Hooper not to get a call-up (much as I’d love to see us roll the dice and select him), and Nathan Brown, Tyson Goldsack and Ben Johnson (through injury) to all miss for Collingwood.

------------------------------

Summary

The Bulldogs simply need to get a total contribution from 22 players on the night in all facets of the game. We have shown in the last 2 prelims that, despite being heavily favoured to be cannon fodder for our opponents on the night, we can play tough, committed, uncompromising football under the extreme duress and against the best quality opposition that September invariably delivers. Collingwood hasn’t yet proven that they can handle the claustrophobic nature of finals football, and the elements combined with a committed and experienced finals opponent will not make their life easy on Saturday night. More than any other team in the top 4, Collingwood relies on finding space for their outriders to wreak havoc on the scoreboard more than most, so if we come into this game with the right structures in place, with all personnel as close to 100% fit as possible, and a mindset that is totally team-driven and focused, we can upset the Collingwood structure and end up on the right side of a famous result.

Bulldogs by 8 points

[Scraggers]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Harden up, I say. It’s September.

Love it ... Love it ... Love it

Bulldogs Low Rankings

• Ranked 16th in Tackles Per Game

Magpies High Rankings

• Ranked 1st in Tackles Per Game

• Ranked 1st in least Opponent Tackles Per Game

In the wet, this where the game will be won or lost ... we need to lift our intensity around stoppages if we are to beat Collingwood.

Fantastic preview guys ... One befitting a final

[LostDoggy]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

An excellent preview.

If we attack the ball and the body as we did against St Kilda in last year's PF, I have no doubt we will win this.

But, if we fall back to our hesitant ways displaying the inferiority complex of recent Qualifying Finals, we are doomed to a thumping.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

I certainly hope your correct with the predicted result!!
Is it just an optimistic prediction, or do you genuinely believe we can beat this mob?

[Cyberdoggie]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Wonderful preview all.

I think you are right about Hall playing the lamb this week.

In all likelyhood it will rain and BBB hasn't played well in the wet this year. He struggles to mark the ball with this hulk hands and the wet track appears to slow him down.

Our real weapon that Collingwood can't match up on is Grant. If Hall and Grant operate like they did last week, then he'll be a huge factor, even in the wet. In Adelaide he didn't have too much of it but he still kicked the one and only goal to win the game in the last quarter.


No one has talked about the other x factor and that is Mitch Hahn.
Yes i can hear the laughs from here but if indeed it is wet, Mitch may well be in his element. His lack of pace and aggression may not be a factor in the right conditions (or it could horribly backfire but we won't talk about that).

I would also like to see Andrew Hooper in the side but i can't see Rodney selecting him to play his first game in a final. It just goes against his style of coaching.

I agree that Tommy Gun is also a huge key for us with Morris out.
Will we see the more composed Tom or the nervous flaky one?
I think Cloke is a great match up for him, I dont' see Cloke being very strong in the areas where Tom is weaker (ie running back into spoiling/marking contests, body on body). Tom is quite realiable at defending on leading opponents and when he is spoiling from behind. If he gets caught under the ball or with Cloke doubling back into the 50 then he starts to look at sea.
Ultimately i don't think the game will be won or lost on this battle but if Tom gets on top then it will assist us greatly.

[Mofra]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Brilliant stuff.
I'm worried about Collingwood's run in this game, but the rain may slow things down. If it turns into a grindign affair like last year's prelim, I think we can cause an upset. Guys like Addison, Boyd, Cross aren't super flashy but get the job done when playing to percentages - put the ball into space, to our advantage, and cause another stoppage closer to our goal.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Great preview but my boss wants me to work back half an hour for reading it on his time...

The only thing I dont really agree with is that I would prefer to have Boyd play tight and accountable on Swan. Shut him down and hurt him legally, I dont think Boyd will come out ahead in a shoot out.

[Bornadog]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Great preview boys, really good read.

This game will be won by the team that gets their hands on the ball first, and that means clearances.

We are still ranked number one with clearances, although we did not win the clearances in our past three games. Collingwood is ranked 13th in clearances and one in tackles, so if they can't get the ball first, they will tackle and force the turnover. We need to get back to winning the ball and using it effectively.

Other important Stats are:

I50: Collingwood 1, Dogs 3

Rebound 50: Dogs 2, Collingwood 14th

Kicks: Dogs 1, Colingwood 3 and handballs both teams rank bottom 8.


I think these stats tell us both teams play a similar brand of football.

[PaddyWhack]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

great preview(s) gents - reading it gives me some hope and mebbe we can......

[The Pie Man]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Seriously tremendous work on the preview.

Maxwell on Grant - I hope this does happy, as I believe Grant can burn him. Cooney mentioned on Game Day last Sunday that Collingwood may perhaps look at O'Brien given he'd have the pace to match.

I saw Mark Stevens nominated Grant as a potential finals surprise packet - you've mentioned the same thing previousl Mantis and I agree, he could be very important this month. I especially like his creativity at ground level and ability to slot through some difficult snaps.

Those tackling stats don't paint a great picture for us - but it's not like it's 100 tackles less a game. A lift in this dept is clearly important, but also very achievable and within our grasp/control

[LostDoggy]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Excellent preview!

Lets hope we get to test out that didak shoulder very early in the game!

[SlimPickens]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Great preview guys. Dogs need to hit them hard and hit them hard early.

[EasternWest]

Re: Match Preview - QF - Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Greystache's bit:

Midfield vs Midfield


Picken vs Didak

Didak is undoubtedly Collingwood’s most dangerous midfielder/forward, he has pace and good foot skills, and has the ability to kick goals in quick succession if he’s given freedom. He has also shown a propensity to falter under the pressure of a big final, and also when given close attention of a tough and close checking tagger. He also comes into the game with a question mark on a shoulder injury, this makes him a prime candidate for our number one stopper. Picken to take him in the forward line, and also to follow him into the midfield, he needs to rough him up at every opportunity as well as attack him verbally. Didak is another who can be a front runner and if things don’t go his way he can lose focus on the football..

Great preview guys.

I have no problem at all with the bolded bit. But I wonder what those who felt outraged by North harrassing Hall constantly feel about it? Or is it ok when we do it?

Can't have your cake and eat it too.

Go Dogs.