Buddy matchup

[westdog54]

Re: Buddy matchup

Wood gets first crack. If he can keep him to 1 or 2 a quarter, good result.

[Maddog37]

Re: Buddy matchup

Mulligan for me. But will need support and if our mids get beaten it will not matter. Might be the making of him and if he gets flogged then no great loss. Markovic on Hale.

Wood is too small and they will put him one out in the square and kick it on his head all day.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Buddy matchup

Wood is too small and they will put him one out in the square and kick it on his head all day.

Shhhh

[Greystache]

Re: Buddy matchup

Mulligan for me. But will need support and if our mids get beaten it will not matter. Might be the making of him and if he gets flogged then no great loss. Markovic on Hale.

Wood is too small and they will put him one out in the square and kick it on his head all day.

Franklin's not much of an overhead mark, its probably the weakest part of his game. If his opponent is going to be at a substantial disadvantage in one particular aspect of their game this is probably the best area.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Buddy matchup

Hey Chops you eternal optimist you, last week you said we shouldn't take a long term approach to our team selection due to it being our last chance. With the Swans loss we are still a chance to make the finals (albeit a 5000-1 chance). Should we keep on playing Hudson and Shaggy while not selecting debutants just in case? As a teacher I know that 5000 is one of the big numbers.

No your wrong again mate. I said we shouldn't play roughead first ruck just yet and a few agreed with me. We were also $2 pre game which are the only odds that you take as they are independent events not 5000/1. Even if you multiple the events was still well under 5000 and they would have shortened anyway. Hope you don't teach maths or stats.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Buddy matchup

No your wrong again mate. I said we shouldn't play roughead first ruck just yet and a few agreed with me. We were also $2 pre game which are the only odds that you take as they are independent events not 5000/1. Even if you multiple the events was still well under 5000 and they would have shortened anyway. Hope you don't teach maths or stats.

They are well under 5000/1 because the odds agencies give you include their cut.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Buddy matchup

Franklin's not much of an overhead mark, its probably the weakest part of his game. If his opponent is going to be at a substantial disadvantage in one particular aspect of their game this is probably the best area.

His overhead marking might be weak but when you have 11cm and 19kg over an opponent you can bank on them winning more marks than spoils if you put the ball on his head.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Buddy matchup

Just for Chops, here's my go at our odds.

Note Chops, TAB et al aren't there to be fair, they take their cut. For example, ever wondered why both teams can be paying less than $2? There's about a 10% difference and even higher when odds are inflated.

Obviously we need to win all our games. Here are my non agency cut odds/chances.

Port 1.20
Hawks 15 (they haven't lost a game to a non top 2 side since round 1. I'll take out GC and Port to be fair, they are 12-0 in their last 12 games against non fait accompli games. We are worse than average even when you include Port and GC and exclude Cats and Pies- 10th out of the 13. I know the TAB won't offer 15 bucks but they aren't there in the interest of probability, they are there to make money!)
Freo 1.70

That's 30.6

Need North to lose 2 games
Freo 4
Saints 1.60
Tigers 3.70

That's about a 6

30.6 x 6 = 183.6

Also need Dees to not win all three. Even they will beat Port and GC who have given up.
Rich 1.9 (I think it's an even game, knocking odds down a tad due to distinct possibility of loss to Port/GC)

That takes us to 348.84

Then we need Swans to lose all 3
Saints 1.90
Cats 1.01
BL 9

That takes the odds to 6024.81/1 (nowhere near the chance of Chops ever conceding a point though)
..and I'm not even taking in the possiblity of Freo making it

Have a go at some of my odds but I think 5000/1 isn't a bad guess!

OK I am the biggest nerd ever.

[AndrewP6]

Re: Buddy matchup

Just for Chops, here's my go at our odds.

Note Chops, TAB et al aren't there to be fair, they take their cut. For example, ever wondered why both teams can be paying less than $2? There's about a 10% difference and even higher when odds are inflated.

Obviously we need to win all our games. Here are my non agency cut odds/chances.

Port 1.20
Hawks 15 (they haven't lost a game to a non top 2 side since round 1. I'll take out GC and Port to be fair, they are 12-0 in their last 12 games against non fait accompli games. We are worse than average even when you include Port and GC and exclude Cats and Pies- 10th out of the 13. I know the TAB won't offer 15 bucks but they aren't there in the interest of probability, they are there to make money!)
Freo 1.70

That's 30.6

Need North to lose 2 games
Freo 4
Saints 1.60
Tigers 3.70

23.7 divide that by 2 = 11.8

30.6 x 11.8 = 361

Also need Dees to not win all three. Even they will beat Port and GC who have given up.
Rich 1.90 (I think it's an even game, knocking odds down a tad due to distinct possibility of loss to Port/GC)

That takes us to 686/1

Then we need Swans to lose all 3
Saints 1.90
Cats 1.01
BL 9

That takes the odds to 11,848.80

..and I'm not even taking in the possiblity of Freo making it! Even if you want to knock our odds vs Hawks to 10 that takes our odds to well over 5000-1. Either way, I don't think 5000-1 is that much of a stretch.


OK I am the biggest nerd ever.

I teach Grade 4, and I can say without fear of contradiction - I have no idea what any of that means. In my defence, I'm not a gambler

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Buddy matchup

I teach Grade 4, and I can say without fear of contradiction - I have no idea what any of that means. In my defence, I'm not a gambler

I stuffed up at the North stage and had to readjust! If you need everything to go your way, you just keep multiplying! I hope a real mathematician isn't out there.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Buddy matchup

I hate the idea of Wood on Buddy, sure he might have a bit of pace and leap but its not going to be of any use when he is getting monstered at the contest or cant reach the ball. Buddy is one of the elite athletes in the game so why send one of our most precious lambs to the slaughter? I would much rather Buddy kicked 12 on Mulligan/Barlow/Markovic then shatter Wood because he might keep him to 8. Like it or not Markovic/Mulligan are key backs, Franklins a key forward, they become his direct opponent and we fill space to cut his run...and pray.

Well said...

Key Forward = Key Back.

Mulli or Marko or both unless Williams is available.

Jones is a consideration or at least an in game switch. There is something to be said by learning from one of the best...

I dont think Woods a good option but I like the sound of Stack as a third man up for the spoil.

Far out.. we will be smashed...

[Sedat]

Re: Buddy matchup

Wood is too small and they will put him one out in the square and kick it on his head all day.

Franklin's one of the few key forwards who is more dangerous roaming far and wide than he is as a 'stay at home' type, so I would hope he stays close to the goal square. If he does stay deep, stick Mulligan on him.

I wonder if Hawthorn are asking the same question of who plays on Hall? They are doing a great job of restricting supply of the ball into their defensive 50 (much like they did in 2008) but if we can break even out of the middle and win our share of inside 50's, Hall will be a dangerous proposition for his direct opponent.

[soupman]

Re: Buddy matchup

Ablett wasn't out and out elite when Griff beat him. He was still prone to disappointing performances, a bit like Griff is now really.

Nope. More like Griffen of 3 seasons ago. At that stage clearly very capable, but yet to show he could do it consistently or over a match or across multiple games. Griffen this year has been one of most consistently good players up until a few weeks ago when he seemed to tire.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Buddy matchup

I stuffed up at the North stage and had to readjust! If you need everything to go your way, you just keep multiplying! I hope a real mathematician isn't out there.

Sorry to say you pretty much stuffed up it all up. The only odds you had to worry about were the Essendon game. The rest is just a long creative/make believe piece you expect from someone with an arts degree.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Buddy matchup

Markovic. Jump in and swim, son.