No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

[Nuggety Back Pocket]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

We got nothing from Cooney and Lake last year and we finished 10th - both will surely offer more in 2012 than they did last year. None of our 28-30yo players will get worse in 2012 compared to 2011 (even Gilbee, he was a non factor in 2011 anyway) - it's not as if they are already 31-33, when they could easily start hitting the wall. Morris is a big, big hole but Shaggy's return counters that partially. And none of this is to mention the expected improvement from our under 22 brigade.

For these reasons I can't see us becoming bottom 4 competition fodder in 2012 - we might well fall in a hole in 2013-14 if our youth doesn't come on and our 28-30 brigade do star hitting the wall, but there is enough talent at the 28-30yo level, and much stronger expected contributions from two of our most vital players structurally (who the opposition will have to put time and resources into every week) for us not to at least match our 2011 season output.

I like your optimism but given the quality of our list a lot would seem to hinge on any real improvement coming from Lake and Cooney. There has been very little reference made to the big losses of Ward and Hall and to a lesser extent Hudson who were all strong players to replace. I do not think we have ever adequately replaced Harbrow from the previous year. Our recruiting/drafting in recent years has been questionable.The loss of Morris for the opening 6 rounds is a huge one as he and Murphy are our two most reliable defenders. We need one or two of our younger players to really step up.
You always live in hope but being realistic it would appear that the club is in for a really tough year.

[jeemak]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Tutt
Dalhouse
Sherman
Grant
Cooney
Murphy
Wood

You are telling me these guys are not fast enough?

Cooney fit and firing would be lightning, Tutt and Dal some of the quickest players in the competition. The rest I listed are quick no doubt but not the fastest. Enough to make top 8 I would think

I guess it depends on where the pace is located. If Cooney doesn't have a decent run at fitness then you're going to be left with Gia, Higgins and Wallis rotating through the middle alongside Cross, Boyd, Liberatore and Griffen, leaving the latter (who surprisingly you left off your list) as our only quick on ball player. That worries me.

Some of the players you have mentioned genuinely affect the game with their pace around the contest and carrying the ball, but guys like Wood and Grant have a long way to go in that area, while Tutt and Dahl have a long way to go in terms of development.

I'll be at the game on Sunday, and it will be interesting to see how we fare against Carlton who have the potential to do us over for pace. I'm not expecting to match them in this area.

[Before I Die]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I like your optimism but given the quality of our list a lot would seem to hinge on any real improvement coming from Lake and Cooney. There has been very little reference made to the big losses of Ward and Hall and to a lesser extent Hudson who were all strong players to replace. I do not think we have ever adequately replaced Harbrow from the previous year. Our recruiting/drafting in recent years has been questionable.The loss of Morris for the opening 6 rounds is a huge one as he and Murphy are our two most reliable defenders. We need one or two of our younger players to really step up.
You always live in hope but being realistic it would appear that the club is in for a really tough year.

I expect our ruck division to be stronger this year than last year. I believe Libba and Dahlhaus will step up a level and that at least one of Smith, Dickson or Wallis will make some contribution in the middle. This negates the loss of Ward. I also believe it is quite possible that Tutt will show that he is not just a flash in the pan, which will give us an outside runner we lacked last year. Hall is not so easily replaced. However, we will have a multipronged attack with a good spread of marking targets and clever mid sized players and I won't be surprised if it is much more successful than a number of posters predict.

Morris is a big loss for at least 6 rounds and maybe much longer. But Shaggy is back and if Lake can also come back strongly then realistically, it would appear that the club should be in for a significantly better year.

[jeemak]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

When we look at Ward as a loss, I think we need to do so not on the basis of what he has provided to our side over the last couple of years, but what he would have provided this year due to him being likely to mature further as a player. None of Wallis, Smith or Dickson will go close to negating the loss of Ward in 2012, and potentially it will be the same in 2013.

Agree with you in terms of our rucks developing, I thought playing Hudson held our list development back a touch last year (although you couldn't discount his effort), and I'm looking forward to seeing Minson take control with Cordy and Roughead fighting it out for the number two spot.

Tutt has a lot of work to do, but I see in him a very classy player in the making. This year for him is one in which he should aim for more than 15 games. He needs to work very hard to get this number up, particularly if we're able to maintain a reasonable level of health on our list. I'm really looking forward to seeing how he develops.

[Sedat]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

There has been very little reference made to the big losses of Ward and Hall and to a lesser extent Hudson who were all strong players to replace. I do not think we have ever adequately replaced Harbrow from the previous year.

Ward was excellent last season and I should have made mention of him. Certainly Libba's improvement will go some way to off-setting Ward's loss. Hall did very little in 2011 until season junk time. And Huddo was cooked, and likely stalled development elsewhere as alluded to by others.

[F'scary]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I'm back - I went away and thought about what was asked by the originator. So, I tried to apply a bit of Bayesian Probability Theory to our 2012 fixture. My result: 9th. I've attached my crude msExcel 97-2003 model if you want to try your own version. Basic idea for those not familiar with it is to assign probabilities for winning each game (decimal fraction of 1), add them up and multiply total by 4 (4 points for a win) to get a raw seasons points outcome. I then constructed a table showing average points per ladder position for the past 5 years and matched my modelled points outcome against that.

If anyone has a better modelling idea, lay it on us if you want or if you find my attempt's crudity laughable, that's ok too.

But maybe you might like to input your own probabilities and see what you get.

cheers

[LostDoggy]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Agree.

North/Richmond/Melbourne fighting for 8th with us a step or two behind.

Mate, no way we will ever be a step behind that lot .

I had us in 10th until I watched us and the Blues from last year this morning, now Ive got us in the 8 scraping in.

Having Lake back is huge and I have a good feeling about him, that and Hargy back will cover Morris. If someone can step up and cover Murphy that would release him forward to cover Hall, with Murphy forward i'm expecting Higgins to do a Richo (Last year of a contract) and have a blinder through the middle which might just cover Cooney.

Having Cooney in the same Forward line as Murphy, Dahl, Gia and Jones is Magic to my ears and very potent.

Bring on the season proper so we can stick it to the lot of em!

[MrMahatma]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

12th

[Dry Rot]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

IMO there's more known variables for this season than I can remember.

If everything goes right, then 9 - 12th.

If many known things go wrong (and there's a major risk they will) then bottom 4.

[GVGjr]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

IMO there's more known variables for this season than I can remember.

If everything goes right, then 9 - 12th.

If many known things go wrong (and there's a major risk they will) then bottom 4.

I think that is a good analogy for the season ahead. If we perform at our best then a finals spot will be had. If we have a lot of problems with injuries then we might finish around 15th.

I think we will be competitive and just need a bit of luck in the closer games throughout the season.

[Before I Die]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

C'mon folks, read the title of the thread. NO SITTING ON THE FENCE !! This thread isn't about variables or luck, it is about putting your head on the block and making a strong prediction. No each way bets, no ifs and maybes, this is single number in a sealed envelope stuff. Where will we finish! Put up or shut up and at the end of the season we will see what we will see.

[Dry Rot]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

C'mon folks, read the title of the thread. NO SITTING ON THE FENCE !! This thread isn't about variables or luck, it is about putting your head on the block and making a strong prediction. No each way bets, no ifs and maybes, this is single number in a sealed envelope stuff. Where will we finish! Put up or shut up and at the end of the season we will see what we will see.

So we don't sit on the fence about whether Cooney's bad knee comes good? Morris returning as a good a a player after such a leg break? etc

[Dry Rot]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I think that is a good analogy for the season ahead. If we perform at our best then a finals spot will be had. If we have a lot of problems with injuries then we might finish around 15th.

I think we will be competitive and just need a bit of luck in the closer games throughout the season.

Early guess would be that we'll harder to score against, but find scoring harder ourselves.

Whether that gives us the edge in a close game or not I don't know.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I'm back - I went away and thought about what was asked by the originator. So, I tried to apply a bit of Bayesian Probability Theory to our 2012 fixture. My result: 9th. I've attached my crude msExcel 97-2003 model if you want to try your own version. Basic idea for those not familiar with it is to assign probabilities for winning each game (decimal fraction of 1), add them up and multiply total by 4 (4 points for a win) to get a raw seasons points outcome. I then constructed a table showing average points per ladder position for the past 5 years and matched my modelled points outcome against that.

If anyone has a better modelling idea, lay it on us if you want or if you find my attempt's crudity laughable, that's ok too.

But maybe you might like to input your own probabilities and see what you get.

cheers

Like your methodology, just disagree with your results.

You have us as only a 90% chance against GWS and Port Adelaide. You also have us as an 80% chance against Brisbane at Etihad. I would consider us 100% to win all 3.

I also see us as better chances in a few other games and only against Geelong (Rd 9) and Freo (Rd 15) do I rate our chances less than you do.

Putting in my winning probabilities I come up with 14 wins.

[Before I Die]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

So we don't sit on the fence about whether Cooney's bad knee comes good? Morris returning as a good a a player after such a leg break? etc

Not in this thread we don't. There are other threads where that would be an appropriate discussion such as the "Will 2012 see a resurgence like 2008" thread. What is the point of having separate threads if posters just disregard the thread title. "No sitting on the Fence" the title of the thread states. Doesn't this answer your question?