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When and Where
Saturday, June 30
7:40pm
Etihad Stadium
Last time they met
Round 21 2011
Western Bulldogs 15.11 (101) Lost to
Essendon 23.12 (150)
Previous 5 games head to head
Round 1 2011- Essendon 16.17 (113) def Western Bulldogs 8.10 (58)
Round 22 2010- Western Bulldogs 107 def Essendon 78
Round 10 2010- Essendon 99 def Western Bulldogs 90
Round 16 2009- Essendon 70 lost to Western Bulldogs 103
Round 21 2008- Western Bulldogs 151 def Essendon 105
Round 4 2008- Essendon 90 lost to Western Bulldogs 128
Form leading in
Essendon- WWLLW
Western Bulldogs- WLLWL
Essendon
Having made significant progress in 2011 under new coach James Hird, Essendon have continued their upward trend in 2012. Beginning the season with an impressive 9 wins from 10 games, with their only loss coming to Collingwood on ANZAC day by a margin of one point, Essendon looked to be certainties for a top 4 position, and even had some in the media mentioning them as premiership contenders. Their last 3 games however have reduced the excitement around Windy Hill, with an embarrassing loss to lowly Melbourne, and disappointingly close loss to Sydney, before a form reversing win last week against Fremantle at Patterson’s Stadium. Of concern to the Bombers would be that the two consecutive losses were punctuated by poor conversion in front of goal, highlighted by 2-14 in the first 3 quarters against Sydney.
Essendon having focussed strongly on improving their defensive efforts and chronic lack of pace through the midfield last season, have this year made a strong focus to blend this defensive focus with the ability to spread from the contest and produce quality inside 50’s for their forwards. They have a number of good young runners coming through and they are ably supported by experienced midfielders in Watson and Stanton who are both enjoying career best seasons. Consistency across the field has been Essendon’s strength this season, they have carried very few passengers thus far, and if the B&F was to be counted today it would be very even across 15 players. This consistency of output across the entire 22 has made shutting them down a difficult task, and targeting key play makers even harder.
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs season has been somewhat inconsistent in 2012, in a year of rebuilding they have shown strong performances against quality sides in WCE, Adelaide, Geelong, and Collingwood, in which they had opportunities to win late into the match with only a lack of experience and composure costing them in the end, only then to have major let downs against less credentialed teams in St Kilda, Sydney, and Brisbane which has left fans wondering where the team is really sitting.
New coach Brendan McCartney has made no secret of his primary goal of winning contested possession and outnumbering the opposition around the contest, and that has been successful as the Dogs rank #1 for contested possession. The difficulty for the Bulldogs has been in converting those contested possessions into uncontested disposals that hurt the opposition. This is one aspect that has been sadly missing from the Dogs arsenal this season. Poor disposal efficiency has led to them being scored against heavily on the rebound, and while the inside 50 count sees the Bulldogs in the top bracket of teams in the AFL, the quality of those entries has seen goals being a rare commodity for the Dogs.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but bulldog fans will desperately hope to see improvement in disposal efficiency in the second half of the season.
Key Matchups
Watson vs Boyd
Jobe Watson has taken his game to another level again this season. He has been the clearance winning machine for the Bombers for the past 3-4 seasons, and that has continued again in 2012, but it is Watson’s ability to hurt the opposition on the outside that has seen his hurt factor really increase. Of noticeable improvement has been his ability to use the ball effectively forward of centre, both in putting the ball to the advantage of his forwards, and also in kicking goals himself. Traditionally tagging Watson has been a pointless exercise as he was a pure in and under midfielder, but that is no longer the case. The Bulldogs best bet in curtailing Watson’s influence will be captain Matthew Boyd. Boyd is a clearance winner in his own right and a head to head battle could result in a stalemate with Watson, and with the Bulldogs greater depth in inside midfielders that would be a win, but it is in being accountable for Watson when the ball in not in dispute that win define how valuable Boyd’s contribution is this week. He simply has to prevent Watson hurting the Dogs on the outside. Watson’s possessions hurt, Boyd’s don’t, it’s that simple for the Bulldog’s captain this week.
Stanton vs Picken/Cross
Brent Stanton is another player whose game has gone to another level this year. Stanton has always been an elite runner with a huge workrate, but his disposal prevented him from being the player opposition teams felt the need to shutdown. This has been the big turnaround for Brent this season. He continues to win big numbers around the ground, but it is his ability to hurt with those disposals that has seen his influence on games increase dramatically. He is an automatic selection to be assigned a shutdown player and the Bulldogs best stopper is Liam Picken. One of the best taggers in the AFL, Picken never gives his opponents a moment’s space, often leading them to lash out as we saw from Brownlow medallist Simon Black last week. This won’t phase Picken one iota however, tough as nails, Picken takes the physicality in his stride. While one of the best endurance runners at the club, Picken may struggle to go with Stanton aerobically, it is for this reason we may see Daniel Cross take the tagging role on Stanton this week.
Crameri vs ???
This is the question the Bulldogs match committee will be asking themselves. Lake on Hurley, and Austin on Ryder/Hille look likely, but it’s the player that takes on the strong bodied but equally mobile medium forward that seems anyone’s guess. Tailor made for Dale Morris, it again shows how much his absence unbalances the Bulldogs defence. Crameri has had an impressive season kicking 25 goals, and only some bouts of inaccuracy that have prevented that number being higher. Crameri is pacey around the ground, has a surprisingly big tank, and for his size is a powerful body player. The only player available to the Dogs that could fit the bill is Easton Wood. Strong, quick, and athletic Wood has the tools to go with Crameri, but Easton has struggled in recent times against a quality forward, this is the week to turn that form line around for Wood.
Bulldog forwards goal kicking vs The 7m opening between the two tall posts
Neutral supporters find a sick fascination in watching the Bulldogs young forwards kicking for goal, Bulldogs supporters just find it straight out sick. Has there ever been a forward line of young key forwards who as a collective were worse set shots at goal? Striking at 45% in a team that desperately struggles to kick goals the bulldogs woes in front of goal have hurt badly at stages this year. Of more concern is that this trend looks unlikely to change in the short term. Coach Brendan McCartney takes the view that if the team does things right up the field the goals will take care of themselves, but seeing as the closer to goal you move the worse the Dogs kicking gets it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the upcoming match.
Conclusion
A tale of two teams is the story for this week. The Bombers are the king of defensive pressure and spread from the contest, leaving the contested possession to a few, whereas the dogs are all at the coal face of the contest leaving precious few to give the ball out to, and susceptible to opposition spread. If the Bulldogs can prevent Essendon from getting hands on the ball they are in the match, but with their disposal efficiency woes that seems unlikely. A Bomber goal fest looks the order of the day.
Verdict
Essendon by 50+
Saturday, June 30
7:40pm
Etihad Stadium
Last time they met
Round 21 2011
Western Bulldogs 15.11 (101) Lost to
Essendon 23.12 (150)
Previous 5 games head to head
Round 1 2011- Essendon 16.17 (113) def Western Bulldogs 8.10 (58)
Round 22 2010- Western Bulldogs 107 def Essendon 78
Round 10 2010- Essendon 99 def Western Bulldogs 90
Round 16 2009- Essendon 70 lost to Western Bulldogs 103
Round 21 2008- Western Bulldogs 151 def Essendon 105
Round 4 2008- Essendon 90 lost to Western Bulldogs 128
Form leading in
Essendon- WWLLW
Western Bulldogs- WLLWL
Essendon
Having made significant progress in 2011 under new coach James Hird, Essendon have continued their upward trend in 2012. Beginning the season with an impressive 9 wins from 10 games, with their only loss coming to Collingwood on ANZAC day by a margin of one point, Essendon looked to be certainties for a top 4 position, and even had some in the media mentioning them as premiership contenders. Their last 3 games however have reduced the excitement around Windy Hill, with an embarrassing loss to lowly Melbourne, and disappointingly close loss to Sydney, before a form reversing win last week against Fremantle at Patterson’s Stadium. Of concern to the Bombers would be that the two consecutive losses were punctuated by poor conversion in front of goal, highlighted by 2-14 in the first 3 quarters against Sydney.
Essendon having focussed strongly on improving their defensive efforts and chronic lack of pace through the midfield last season, have this year made a strong focus to blend this defensive focus with the ability to spread from the contest and produce quality inside 50’s for their forwards. They have a number of good young runners coming through and they are ably supported by experienced midfielders in Watson and Stanton who are both enjoying career best seasons. Consistency across the field has been Essendon’s strength this season, they have carried very few passengers thus far, and if the B&F was to be counted today it would be very even across 15 players. This consistency of output across the entire 22 has made shutting them down a difficult task, and targeting key play makers even harder.
Western Bulldogs
The Bulldogs season has been somewhat inconsistent in 2012, in a year of rebuilding they have shown strong performances against quality sides in WCE, Adelaide, Geelong, and Collingwood, in which they had opportunities to win late into the match with only a lack of experience and composure costing them in the end, only then to have major let downs against less credentialed teams in St Kilda, Sydney, and Brisbane which has left fans wondering where the team is really sitting.
New coach Brendan McCartney has made no secret of his primary goal of winning contested possession and outnumbering the opposition around the contest, and that has been successful as the Dogs rank #1 for contested possession. The difficulty for the Bulldogs has been in converting those contested possessions into uncontested disposals that hurt the opposition. This is one aspect that has been sadly missing from the Dogs arsenal this season. Poor disposal efficiency has led to them being scored against heavily on the rebound, and while the inside 50 count sees the Bulldogs in the top bracket of teams in the AFL, the quality of those entries has seen goals being a rare commodity for the Dogs.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but bulldog fans will desperately hope to see improvement in disposal efficiency in the second half of the season.
Key Matchups
Watson vs Boyd
Jobe Watson has taken his game to another level again this season. He has been the clearance winning machine for the Bombers for the past 3-4 seasons, and that has continued again in 2012, but it is Watson’s ability to hurt the opposition on the outside that has seen his hurt factor really increase. Of noticeable improvement has been his ability to use the ball effectively forward of centre, both in putting the ball to the advantage of his forwards, and also in kicking goals himself. Traditionally tagging Watson has been a pointless exercise as he was a pure in and under midfielder, but that is no longer the case. The Bulldogs best bet in curtailing Watson’s influence will be captain Matthew Boyd. Boyd is a clearance winner in his own right and a head to head battle could result in a stalemate with Watson, and with the Bulldogs greater depth in inside midfielders that would be a win, but it is in being accountable for Watson when the ball in not in dispute that win define how valuable Boyd’s contribution is this week. He simply has to prevent Watson hurting the Dogs on the outside. Watson’s possessions hurt, Boyd’s don’t, it’s that simple for the Bulldog’s captain this week.
Stanton vs Picken/Cross
Brent Stanton is another player whose game has gone to another level this year. Stanton has always been an elite runner with a huge workrate, but his disposal prevented him from being the player opposition teams felt the need to shutdown. This has been the big turnaround for Brent this season. He continues to win big numbers around the ground, but it is his ability to hurt with those disposals that has seen his influence on games increase dramatically. He is an automatic selection to be assigned a shutdown player and the Bulldogs best stopper is Liam Picken. One of the best taggers in the AFL, Picken never gives his opponents a moment’s space, often leading them to lash out as we saw from Brownlow medallist Simon Black last week. This won’t phase Picken one iota however, tough as nails, Picken takes the physicality in his stride. While one of the best endurance runners at the club, Picken may struggle to go with Stanton aerobically, it is for this reason we may see Daniel Cross take the tagging role on Stanton this week.
Crameri vs ???
This is the question the Bulldogs match committee will be asking themselves. Lake on Hurley, and Austin on Ryder/Hille look likely, but it’s the player that takes on the strong bodied but equally mobile medium forward that seems anyone’s guess. Tailor made for Dale Morris, it again shows how much his absence unbalances the Bulldogs defence. Crameri has had an impressive season kicking 25 goals, and only some bouts of inaccuracy that have prevented that number being higher. Crameri is pacey around the ground, has a surprisingly big tank, and for his size is a powerful body player. The only player available to the Dogs that could fit the bill is Easton Wood. Strong, quick, and athletic Wood has the tools to go with Crameri, but Easton has struggled in recent times against a quality forward, this is the week to turn that form line around for Wood.
Bulldog forwards goal kicking vs The 7m opening between the two tall posts
Neutral supporters find a sick fascination in watching the Bulldogs young forwards kicking for goal, Bulldogs supporters just find it straight out sick. Has there ever been a forward line of young key forwards who as a collective were worse set shots at goal? Striking at 45% in a team that desperately struggles to kick goals the bulldogs woes in front of goal have hurt badly at stages this year. Of more concern is that this trend looks unlikely to change in the short term. Coach Brendan McCartney takes the view that if the team does things right up the field the goals will take care of themselves, but seeing as the closer to goal you move the worse the Dogs kicking gets it doesn’t paint a pretty picture for the upcoming match.
Conclusion
A tale of two teams is the story for this week. The Bombers are the king of defensive pressure and spread from the contest, leaving the contested possession to a few, whereas the dogs are all at the coal face of the contest leaving precious few to give the ball out to, and susceptible to opposition spread. If the Bulldogs can prevent Essendon from getting hands on the ball they are in the match, but with their disposal efficiency woes that seems unlikely. A Bomber goal fest looks the order of the day.
Verdict
Essendon by 50+
should be a good game and am only expecting bombers by 15 points
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