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I thought it would be an interesting exercise to compile a list of young players, given it forms the large majority of our list, and discuss where they are at and where we might think they'll be at by the end of 2013. This gives us a point of reference, so that come the season's end, we can check back and take a look at our "predictions" and see how close (or how far off) the mark we were.
I'm not going to comment on first year players, but feel free to do so yourself.
I encourage everybody to throw up their own list, or if they'd prefer, make some comments/predictions on a select few.
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Second Year Pups:
Tom Campbell:
Where he's at: Played 7 games in his debut year which was a good effort for a rookie ruckman, despite the fact he's a little older than a typical 18 y.o who comes out of the draft. He appears to have a great work ethic and a willingness to compete. He takes the occasional strong grab and his second efforts are promising. Still very raw though and has much to learn. Currently behind Minson but given Roughy is now our FB and Cordy our FF, he's second in line for ruck duties.
Prediction: One would think he will certainly play more games than he did in his debut year, but he won't be overtaking Minson anytime soon. Needs to perform at a high standard in the VFL and continue to apply what he learns at AFL level. 10-15 games with the occasional good sign. I see him as a worthy longer term project.
Alex Greenwood:
Where he's at: Entering his second year as a rookie, Alex came to the club very raw and under developed. Added to this, he suffered an injury and missed most of his first pre-season. He did play some good football towards the end of Williamstown's campaign, which was encouraging.
Prediction: It's another development year for Greenwood. He is close to last in line in terms of small-medium mids, with other rookies also being preferred in terms of any sort of upgrade. He needs to really impress at VFL level if he's to keep his spot on the list. Unfortunately for him, his game is similar to what we already have, making things difficult for him. I predict he'll be delisted.
Lin Jong:
Where he's at: Played 4 games late in 2012 and equipped himself pretty well. Showed an ability to win the ball in contests, pick up possessions and showed he's got a lot of intensity and courage. On the downside, his disposal is well below average and his decision making is average.
Prediction: Could be a bit of a bolter. Still raw, but has great potential. His improvement trend has been rapid in the last 2-3 years. Elite pace, strong, good defensive skills, can find and win his own ball. I predict he'll have a very good year in the VFL and will be upgraded. Still a rookie currently so may have to settle for 5-10 games at the most if an injury comes.
Daniel Pearce:
Where he's at: Another player who came to the club very raw. Baby faced with a boy's body, but he's got a good frame to build upon and has a great attitude. Struggled in his first few games but played pretty well against North Melbourne before injury ended his season. 5 games was a decent effort.
Prediction: Should play 10-15 games. He has a lot to learn but the coach is a fan and I can see why. I think he'll certainly struggle and look out of place at times, but will have a solid learning curve year, and will prove he's worth persisting with. "Pain with promise", is a simple way of putting it for 2013.
Jack Redpath:
Where he's at: Struggled to make an impact at VFL level in his first season as a rookie, although he did play one outstanding half where he kicked 4 or 5 goals. Physically he's ready, but has much to learn about positioning and so forth.
Prediction: Unlikely to play any senior games unless his form is extremely good and we are hit by injuries. Not too many people are a fan of his, but I'm going to predict he'll get a third year on the list as a rookie.
Fletcher Roberts:
Where he's at: Stacked on quite a few kgs in his first pre-season, had a very good debut season in the VFL and shut down some 'AFL' forwards. Looks a natural, smart footballer. Played 2 games late in the year and looked OK -- a good effort for a young KPP taken in the PSD.
Prediction: Difficult to know if he'll be played as a defender or forward. Realistically he's down in the pecking order, but a few good games in the VFL would earn a call-up pretty quick I'd think. I'm going to predict 8-12 games for Roberts, where he shows an ability to read the play, execute his skills and display his composure.
Clay Smith:
Where he's at: Had a encouraging debut season. Played extremely well in round one with four goals, but did struggle at times after that. However, his second half of the season was impressive. Played 16 games and looked like he could become a very good player, despite an obvious deficiency in his kicking.
Prediction: 20+ games, improved kicking, improved endurance. Wouldn't surprise to see him take charge of games in small bursts with his style of play. Only a second year player, but expectations and my predictions are high.
Michael Talia:
Where he's at: He was already physically developed for such a young kid, but has packed on more size since his initial arrival. Not the best athlete in the world and his disposal is below average, but had a good season in the VFL and improved as the year went on. Did well in his 4 AFL games, showed he certainly has a real future as a KPD.
Prediction: 15 games possibly more. Still will have days when he's badly beaten and days when his disposal makes us cringe, but overall I predict an encouraging year.
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Third Year Pups:
Luke Dahlhaus:
Where he's at: Started 2012 off very well but did taper towards the end before an injury ruled him out for the last quarter of the season or so. Played more midfield than he previously did and struggled against the better opposition. Arguably a much better forward than midfielder, but having said that, it was another good year from Dahl. His potential as we know is massive.
Prediction: More of the same. I think he's another year or two off really delivering on his potential, but I think he can have a good 2013 whereby he finds ways to be effective for longer. An improvement on 2012, but not a breakout year yet. Obviously plays 20+ barring injury.
Jason Johannisen:
Where he's at: Improved out of sight in 2012, performing very well at Williamstown straight away. An injury kept him from debuting in the AFL earlier than he did, and even though he only played the 3 games, he showed promise and deserved his list upgrading.
Prediction: To play 17+ games. Big fan of JJ's, think he's certainly ready to play the bulk of the season in the senior side. Elite pace, good skills and good decision maker. My tip for most improved.
Thomas Liberatore:
Where he's at: Made a great impression on the club in his debut year and was performing well in 2012 prior to his major screw-up later in the season, that saw him suspended from the club. Nevertheless, already elite by hand, very good by foot and is superb at the clearances.
Prediction: Tipping he'll have a big year and finish top 5 in the B&F. Not too many faults in his game aside from a lack of pace. Needs to keep improving his tank and that'll come, but I'm predicting he'll really consolidate himself as one of the game's best young mids. 20+ games barring injury.
Mitch Wallis:
Where he's at: Had a terrific 2012 season, grabbing the attention of the footy world with some impressive and consistent performances. Still needs to improve his disposal and endurance, but was the big improver of 2012.
Prediction: Hard to see anything but another strong year for Mitch, as he continues to improve his overall game. I think Libba may overtake him/edge slightly ahead, but I expect Wallis will have another good year. 20+ games barring injury.
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Fourth Year Dogs:
Christian Howard:
Where he's at: Played 11 games and had a couple of solid outings, including one down at Geelong. Physically he is ready and his endurance is in the top group. However, currently, he hasn't made a position on the ground his own. He is poor defensively and isn't damaging or creative enough with his disposal.
Prediction: He should be given ample opportunity to impress with 15+ games, but unfortunately, I don't think he's good enough. Hopefully he makes me eat humble pie with a very good year but at this stage, I think he's going to be exposed further which leaves him opened to being traded or delisted.
Jason Tutt:
Where he's at: Struggled with injury in 2012 which hampered his progress, but did return to crack 5 games later in the year. Those performances were disappointing, but he has elevated himself into the top group in terms of running so that should help.
Prediction: He has some attributes we lack such as pace and skill, but I question his decision making and his intensity. Again, sadly, I think he will struggle like Howard. I suspect he will show a few more signs than Christian and may have a few good games against lower opposition who afford him time and space, but by and large, I don't see Tutt cementing a spot in our side. Traded or delisted.
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Fifth Year Dogs:
Ayce Cordy:
Where he's at: The encouraging thing is that Ayce played a fair bit of footy and wasn't hampered by injury. Played 12 AFL matches predominately as a forward and did struggle to make an impact. Showed a few signs against North and Port, but looks more like a first year player as opposed to a fourth at the time. Has had injury setbacks which has delayed his progress, but needs to start delivering more in 2013.
Prediction: I think Ayce will struggle. His severe lack of intensity is my biggest concern -- he lacks presence and doesn't get off the ground enough in marking situations. As a KPF you need to crash packs and be a presence -- Ayce 'floats' and 'drifts' which perhaps suggests he's more of a ruck than a forward, given it's what they tend to do when they're plonked up forward. However, he's too slight to play ruck. Got a contract extension, but I predict we'll be questioning why much more by the year's end. Will play 15+ games.
Liam Jones:
Where he's at: After a good 2011 season, Jones had a disastrous 2012. Nothing went right, and he didn't even look AFL quality. Hopefully it was simply a bad year though, as we know he has proven he can play the game at the top level. By all reports has had a good pre-season and has improved his kicking technique.
Prediction: Should be a much better year for Jones. 18+ games and a return to his 2011-self with some strong marks, hard leads, defensive pressure but this time -- improved disposal both in field and on goal. Not suggesting he'll be a savior, but should have a good year to reinstate our faith.
Jordan Roughead:
Where he's at: Had an impressive 2012, playing in a variety of positions with some success in each of them. Found a spot as a FB in the later rounds and with Lake's departure has since been earmarked for that role full time. Questionable whether his attributes are suited to it, but he did show good signs against good opponents last year.
Prediction: 20+ games barring injury with some beltings coming along the way. Having said that, I really rate Roughy as one of our best young players and think he'll develop into an exceptional footballer. I predict he'll have an impressive season, beating some top grade talent in the process. He will find it tough when our midfield pressure drops though.
I'm not going to comment on first year players, but feel free to do so yourself.
I encourage everybody to throw up their own list, or if they'd prefer, make some comments/predictions on a select few.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Second Year Pups:
Tom Campbell:
Where he's at: Played 7 games in his debut year which was a good effort for a rookie ruckman, despite the fact he's a little older than a typical 18 y.o who comes out of the draft. He appears to have a great work ethic and a willingness to compete. He takes the occasional strong grab and his second efforts are promising. Still very raw though and has much to learn. Currently behind Minson but given Roughy is now our FB and Cordy our FF, he's second in line for ruck duties.
Prediction: One would think he will certainly play more games than he did in his debut year, but he won't be overtaking Minson anytime soon. Needs to perform at a high standard in the VFL and continue to apply what he learns at AFL level. 10-15 games with the occasional good sign. I see him as a worthy longer term project.
Alex Greenwood:
Where he's at: Entering his second year as a rookie, Alex came to the club very raw and under developed. Added to this, he suffered an injury and missed most of his first pre-season. He did play some good football towards the end of Williamstown's campaign, which was encouraging.
Prediction: It's another development year for Greenwood. He is close to last in line in terms of small-medium mids, with other rookies also being preferred in terms of any sort of upgrade. He needs to really impress at VFL level if he's to keep his spot on the list. Unfortunately for him, his game is similar to what we already have, making things difficult for him. I predict he'll be delisted.
Lin Jong:
Where he's at: Played 4 games late in 2012 and equipped himself pretty well. Showed an ability to win the ball in contests, pick up possessions and showed he's got a lot of intensity and courage. On the downside, his disposal is well below average and his decision making is average.
Prediction: Could be a bit of a bolter. Still raw, but has great potential. His improvement trend has been rapid in the last 2-3 years. Elite pace, strong, good defensive skills, can find and win his own ball. I predict he'll have a very good year in the VFL and will be upgraded. Still a rookie currently so may have to settle for 5-10 games at the most if an injury comes.
Daniel Pearce:
Where he's at: Another player who came to the club very raw. Baby faced with a boy's body, but he's got a good frame to build upon and has a great attitude. Struggled in his first few games but played pretty well against North Melbourne before injury ended his season. 5 games was a decent effort.
Prediction: Should play 10-15 games. He has a lot to learn but the coach is a fan and I can see why. I think he'll certainly struggle and look out of place at times, but will have a solid learning curve year, and will prove he's worth persisting with. "Pain with promise", is a simple way of putting it for 2013.
Jack Redpath:
Where he's at: Struggled to make an impact at VFL level in his first season as a rookie, although he did play one outstanding half where he kicked 4 or 5 goals. Physically he's ready, but has much to learn about positioning and so forth.
Prediction: Unlikely to play any senior games unless his form is extremely good and we are hit by injuries. Not too many people are a fan of his, but I'm going to predict he'll get a third year on the list as a rookie.
Fletcher Roberts:
Where he's at: Stacked on quite a few kgs in his first pre-season, had a very good debut season in the VFL and shut down some 'AFL' forwards. Looks a natural, smart footballer. Played 2 games late in the year and looked OK -- a good effort for a young KPP taken in the PSD.
Prediction: Difficult to know if he'll be played as a defender or forward. Realistically he's down in the pecking order, but a few good games in the VFL would earn a call-up pretty quick I'd think. I'm going to predict 8-12 games for Roberts, where he shows an ability to read the play, execute his skills and display his composure.
Clay Smith:
Where he's at: Had a encouraging debut season. Played extremely well in round one with four goals, but did struggle at times after that. However, his second half of the season was impressive. Played 16 games and looked like he could become a very good player, despite an obvious deficiency in his kicking.
Prediction: 20+ games, improved kicking, improved endurance. Wouldn't surprise to see him take charge of games in small bursts with his style of play. Only a second year player, but expectations and my predictions are high.
Michael Talia:
Where he's at: He was already physically developed for such a young kid, but has packed on more size since his initial arrival. Not the best athlete in the world and his disposal is below average, but had a good season in the VFL and improved as the year went on. Did well in his 4 AFL games, showed he certainly has a real future as a KPD.
Prediction: 15 games possibly more. Still will have days when he's badly beaten and days when his disposal makes us cringe, but overall I predict an encouraging year.
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Third Year Pups:
Luke Dahlhaus:
Where he's at: Started 2012 off very well but did taper towards the end before an injury ruled him out for the last quarter of the season or so. Played more midfield than he previously did and struggled against the better opposition. Arguably a much better forward than midfielder, but having said that, it was another good year from Dahl. His potential as we know is massive.
Prediction: More of the same. I think he's another year or two off really delivering on his potential, but I think he can have a good 2013 whereby he finds ways to be effective for longer. An improvement on 2012, but not a breakout year yet. Obviously plays 20+ barring injury.
Jason Johannisen:
Where he's at: Improved out of sight in 2012, performing very well at Williamstown straight away. An injury kept him from debuting in the AFL earlier than he did, and even though he only played the 3 games, he showed promise and deserved his list upgrading.
Prediction: To play 17+ games. Big fan of JJ's, think he's certainly ready to play the bulk of the season in the senior side. Elite pace, good skills and good decision maker. My tip for most improved.
Thomas Liberatore:
Where he's at: Made a great impression on the club in his debut year and was performing well in 2012 prior to his major screw-up later in the season, that saw him suspended from the club. Nevertheless, already elite by hand, very good by foot and is superb at the clearances.
Prediction: Tipping he'll have a big year and finish top 5 in the B&F. Not too many faults in his game aside from a lack of pace. Needs to keep improving his tank and that'll come, but I'm predicting he'll really consolidate himself as one of the game's best young mids. 20+ games barring injury.
Mitch Wallis:
Where he's at: Had a terrific 2012 season, grabbing the attention of the footy world with some impressive and consistent performances. Still needs to improve his disposal and endurance, but was the big improver of 2012.
Prediction: Hard to see anything but another strong year for Mitch, as he continues to improve his overall game. I think Libba may overtake him/edge slightly ahead, but I expect Wallis will have another good year. 20+ games barring injury.
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Fourth Year Dogs:
Christian Howard:
Where he's at: Played 11 games and had a couple of solid outings, including one down at Geelong. Physically he is ready and his endurance is in the top group. However, currently, he hasn't made a position on the ground his own. He is poor defensively and isn't damaging or creative enough with his disposal.
Prediction: He should be given ample opportunity to impress with 15+ games, but unfortunately, I don't think he's good enough. Hopefully he makes me eat humble pie with a very good year but at this stage, I think he's going to be exposed further which leaves him opened to being traded or delisted.
Jason Tutt:
Where he's at: Struggled with injury in 2012 which hampered his progress, but did return to crack 5 games later in the year. Those performances were disappointing, but he has elevated himself into the top group in terms of running so that should help.
Prediction: He has some attributes we lack such as pace and skill, but I question his decision making and his intensity. Again, sadly, I think he will struggle like Howard. I suspect he will show a few more signs than Christian and may have a few good games against lower opposition who afford him time and space, but by and large, I don't see Tutt cementing a spot in our side. Traded or delisted.
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Fifth Year Dogs:
Ayce Cordy:
Where he's at: The encouraging thing is that Ayce played a fair bit of footy and wasn't hampered by injury. Played 12 AFL matches predominately as a forward and did struggle to make an impact. Showed a few signs against North and Port, but looks more like a first year player as opposed to a fourth at the time. Has had injury setbacks which has delayed his progress, but needs to start delivering more in 2013.
Prediction: I think Ayce will struggle. His severe lack of intensity is my biggest concern -- he lacks presence and doesn't get off the ground enough in marking situations. As a KPF you need to crash packs and be a presence -- Ayce 'floats' and 'drifts' which perhaps suggests he's more of a ruck than a forward, given it's what they tend to do when they're plonked up forward. However, he's too slight to play ruck. Got a contract extension, but I predict we'll be questioning why much more by the year's end. Will play 15+ games.
Liam Jones:
Where he's at: After a good 2011 season, Jones had a disastrous 2012. Nothing went right, and he didn't even look AFL quality. Hopefully it was simply a bad year though, as we know he has proven he can play the game at the top level. By all reports has had a good pre-season and has improved his kicking technique.
Prediction: Should be a much better year for Jones. 18+ games and a return to his 2011-self with some strong marks, hard leads, defensive pressure but this time -- improved disposal both in field and on goal. Not suggesting he'll be a savior, but should have a good year to reinstate our faith.
Jordan Roughead:
Where he's at: Had an impressive 2012, playing in a variety of positions with some success in each of them. Found a spot as a FB in the later rounds and with Lake's departure has since been earmarked for that role full time. Questionable whether his attributes are suited to it, but he did show good signs against good opponents last year.
Prediction: 20+ games barring injury with some beltings coming along the way. Having said that, I really rate Roughy as one of our best young players and think he'll develop into an exceptional footballer. I predict he'll have an impressive season, beating some top grade talent in the process. He will find it tough when our midfield pressure drops though.
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