If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

[bulldogtragic]

Firstly, I'm not advocating tanking.

I've been reflecting for well over a year about how teams need to successfully 'bottom out'. For great sides like Hawthorn, Sydney & Geelong where they can top up with kids in the late first round, for other teams the prized picks, especially pick 1, seem to me to be necessary in rebuilding from a low base.

My concern is in 2012 we played a decent first half of the season, and then awful second half. Consequently we didn't get our hands on pick 1 or even 2. Then 2013 we had a dreadful first half, but excellent latter half. Consequently again we did not get our hands a top 1 or 2 pick.

These picks represent players you can build a team around, like Riewoldt and Roughead, or emerging guns like Patton, Boyd and arguably Cameron or Hogan.

Because we haven't bottomed out traditionally in one season (take the 2012-2013 mid points I think we had 4 wins) by spreading our performances which would ordinarily lead to a selection like above we are relying on our mids in Macrae, Bonts and Stringer where ever he ends up playing.

The issue is apparent again this year. There are 3 or 4 very talented KPF's not least of which hype will no doubt come on Wright, McCartin & Goddard. If we climb ourselves up past these kids again it puts us another year back without a top prized pick KPF.

As I say, i'm not suggesting we tank, with Grant back i'm expecting some more wins for sure, but come 5 years time are we going to be regretting not getting down low enough to get a prized KPF??

[LostDoggy]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I'm cool with missing all 4 as our backline needs more work than our forward line. Morris and Murphy are gone inside 3 years. Read that again. That's a MASSIVE pair of holes down back. At least our forward line is working somewhat with Crameri in there now. Tommy W shows promise as a bonus player when we get him on the deck. I'm happy to trade for one of GWS's 45000 talls in a couple of years and would be happy to either grab a rebounding 2/3rd tall like lever (draft) or plowman (trade). Get them in there first and worry about a tall forward next year when the feeding frenzy for a tall forward dies down a little. Could also go after Membrey or Reid from Sydney (prefer the former). There was no way of getting pick 1 or 2 in '10, '11 or '12 without us being such basket cases we would face a melbourne scenario coming out. That may well have killed our club. We seem to have done very well with the picks we've had. Dahlhaus was a rookie, pick 20 rookie at that, in 2010. That's freakin genius right there. In fact redo the 2010 draft and we got 3 top 25 picks in hindsight when we used 22,44 and pick 20 rookie draft. We are doin' ok I think.

[boydogs]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

As I say, i'm not suggesting we tank, with Grant back i'm expecting some more wins for sure, but come 5 years time are we going to be regretting not getting down low enough to get a prized KPF??

I think our Father/Son picks and compensation for Ward, Reid & Harbrow will help us

[bulldogtragic]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I think our Father/Son picks and compensation for Ward, Reid & Harbrow will help us

My sarcasm radar is off today, I'm under the weather, but my first reaction was to laugh, I hope i got it right?

Ayce and Mitch in the magoos, Prudden hasn't played this year and Harbrow's pick was spent on Sherman.

Did i get it right?

[boydogs]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

My sarcasm radar is off today, I'm under the weather, but my first reaction was to laugh, I hope i got it right?

Ayce and Mitch in the magoos, Prudden hasn't played this year and Harbrow's pick was spent on Sherman.

Did i get it right?

I was thinking more of Macrae, Libba & Hunter. It was a serious post

[bulldogtragic]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I was thinking more of Macrae, Libba & Hunter. It was a serious post

My bad sorry mate. When you put it like that its a persuasive point. Apologies.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I was thinking more of Macrae, Libba & Hunter. It was a serious post

My bad sorry mate. When you put it like that its a persuasive point. Apologies. But anything to do with Justin Sherman and pissing away that high pick makes me laugh or cry.

[G-Mo77]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

Is this the first clean draft since the plastic teams came in? I'm pretty sure all have been compromised until this year, last years was a little better but still missing some underage recruits. It should be a little deeper this year so some of those players you listed may fall. Could you honestly see GWS taking another KPF with their highest pick? Either way we'll get another high pick and we've just got to nail it. If it's 5, 10 or please god make it happen pick 18 it's got to be spot on.

I don't like the idea of bottoming out personally. There is always someone available who can vastly improve your squad with the first pick you take and it's certainly no guarantee that a player drafted higher will be a star. Making the right choice is the hardest and most important part for us.

[G-Mo77]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

My bad sorry mate. When you put it like that its a persuasive point. Apologies. But anything to do with Justin Sherman and pissing away that high pick makes me laugh or cry.

I miss the Sherminator.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I miss the Sherminator.

Yeah, I'm not sure where he's playing this year either. I'm not sure how his trade to us fits in with Rawlings (Veale) or Street, or Vez for Everitt, etc. What were we thinking, other than a cool nickname teenagers of the 90's knew

[GVGjr]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

Is this the first clean draft since the plastic teams came in?

I think there are still a compensation pick or two to be finalised but now with the compensation for players lost during FA it's a moving target.

I
I don't like the idea of bottoming out personally. There is always someone available who can vastly improve your squad with the first pick you take and it's certainly no guarantee that a player drafted higher will be a star. Making the right choice is the hardest and most important part for us.

Same here. We can't afford it and it just creates a whole tanking speculation scenario which isn't healthy.

We simply need to be prepared to trade for draft picks but given our list at the moment that won't be easy. There are some interesting players coming out of contract at GC and GWS that we might be able to leverage into a positive outcome.

[AndrewP6]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

Yeah, I'm not sure where he's playing this year either.

He was released from his 2014 contract with Williamstown, with a knee injury. So we could make another play for him

[GVGjr]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I guess the bigger question is along the lines of how badly do we want to get and early pick so that we could secure an early pick from another club?

Just a hypothetical question but would you trade someone like Clay Smith and our first round pick this season (maybe pick 7) for pick 3 knowing it's going to secure a key position player?
Lets not worry about potential modifications to an offer like this but essentially a player we have pumped 3 years of development into and a first round pick for superior pick around the number 3 mark

Clearly tanking games isn't the answer so we would need to give up something very good to position ourselves around the mark BT is talking about.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

I guess the bigger question is along the lines of how badly do we want to get and early pick so that we could secure an early pick from another club?

Just a hypothetical question but would you trade someone like Clay Smith and our first round pick this season (maybe pick 7) for pick 3 knowing it's going to secure a key position player?
Lets not worry about potential modifications to an offer like this but essentially a player we have pumped 3 years of development into and a first round pick for superior pick around the number 3 mark

Clearly tanking games isn't the answer so we would need to give up something very good to position ourselves around the mark BT is talking about.

Interesting. Although I may have been unclear, after a bad run of form the draft rules are that you get the pick in accord with your ladder position. Ordinarily, if we had our bad run in one season we would have had 3 wins (2012-2013) and thus got a Patton or Boyd. But history being what is, we didn't follow the normal pattern and instead of getting a pick 1 or 2 we got picks 4 through 6. And thus not a KPF that looks the goods. I guess it's more a thought in 5 years time and we wish our picks through these drafts were higher. No one advocates losing, but take late 2012 and 2013 and our draft pick would be pick 2, not 5. We were bad enough for over 20 straight games to deserve a top 1 or 2 pick, but as we didn't do it in a single year. No one wants to lose.

But to the main argument, if we think we can't get a good KPF this year in the draft and trade weeks are slim, we need to think about all options. This being a very interesting thought.

[boydogs]

Re: If we keep winning, do we have face a problem in 5+ years?

Just a hypothetical question but would you trade someone like Clay Smith and our first round pick this season (maybe pick 7) for pick 3 knowing it's going to secure a key position player?
Lets not worry about potential modifications to an offer like this but essentially a player we have pumped 3 years of development into and a first round pick for superior pick around the number 3 mark

The modifications are important. Clay Smith no, Mitch Wallis yes