2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

[Webby]

Post the St Kilda game I noted that we're on 7 wins with three games to go. We should get over GWS and that'll match last year's tally of 8 wins... I also note that we're on 85 percentage points. That's pretty much as "even Steven" with last year as you can get.. On paper, anyway..

However, I had a look at our top 8 from the 2013 b&f count and it's immediately clear to me that we have very much made progress. Last year's top 8 were: Griffen, Libba, Minson, Murphy, Morris, Dahlhaus, Cooney & Gia. 6 of the 8 were 27+ and the average age 29...

Of course we don't know what our top 8 will be this year, but I'd expect to see Macrae, Wood, Libba, Crameri, Morris, Dahlhaus and Stringer in the mix. Whilst Stevens, Roughie and Hrovat are half a chance to be thereabouts. if there was a b&f for the second half of the year, Bontempelli would surely crack the top ten, whilst Mitch Wallis's game on Joel Sellwood a few weeks back showed he can make a player. He and Clay Smith were stiff with their injuries. If Clay Smith can get over his knee, he'll also be handy. He was beating down the door in the VFL when his knee went again. Fingers and toes crossed on his recovery this time.

We've managed to hold steady despite dropping the average age of our team this season. We'll get pick 5 or 6 as well as a pick for Higgins. We should nab Zaine Cordy as well as a decent early first rounder (hopefully on par with Macrae, Stringer and Bonts) and then trade for a decent, homesick young tall from an upstart team in the north. Meanwhile, Cordy and Campbell's development in the VFL has been stark and both Honeychurch and Darley have shown very good signs. The most important two players for me are Talia and Roberts. Those two really need to push themselves over the pre-season. Big development from those two is crucial. I hope they take the responsibility for both their own careers and the fortunes of the club. They are two players we really need to come on.

The key for us is also obviously a quality tall forward. The question is do we try to land a good young one via a trade or the Draft, or do we continue to develop around that missing piece and the nab a ~27 year old free agent when we're clearly on the cusp around 2017 or so?

As we further develop Hunter, JJ, A Cordy, Campbell, Jones, Z Cordy, perhaps one traded in young KPP and a quality pick 5 or 6 next year, I think we'll begin to see a very young team that's winning 10 or so games in 2015, pushing for finals in 2016, making finals in 2017 and then looking at prelims and GFs from 2018 onwards.

So next year I doubt very much that we'll see finals, but we will see the future staring us in the face. It's going to be fun! Meanwhile, we might just see our young blokes pinching a VFL flag...! Those finals will be a blast. I hope our supporters turn up in droves and that Roberts, Talia, Cordy, Campbell, Redpath, Darley and Honeychurch star!!

The big success of 2014 is our VFL team. If I were a 20 year old looking to choose a VFL club to play for, I'd have to be attracted to Footscray. We've provided the biggest crowds, the best atmosphere and I'd say the club has the best facilities along with Geelong.. This is potentially a huge competitive advantage for the club in the coming years. With any luck, it'll nab us a couple of the Barlow, Boyd, Morris or Podsiadly types over the next 2-3 years..

I'm Looking forward to the future. It's been a pretty good 12 months for the club.

[Remi Moses]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Excellent points made Webby.
Last year we were carried by our senior guys, and had outstanding seasons from Griff and Will.
Some media types lazily look at the win loss tally without looking deeper into it , and it is obvious our younger guys have stepped up.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

We've lost four or five games by less than two goals according to a stat someone put up a few weeks back? We've staying in games longer it seems compared to 2013.

[ledge]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

I don't think Higgins will go and after yesterday it's obvious he still has a lot to give.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Next year will be interesting.

We simply must keep improving, but our defense looks terrible given we still rely heavily on Morris and Murphy. If they hold their form and we can develop Talia/Roberts and a few others, then finals should be on the radar. If they don't develop and Morris/Murphy decline, we could stagnate.

It's a tight competition which makes it difficult. I tend to think the aim should be to play finals, but having said that, we could have 10-11 wins miss finals and still improve.

2016 we absolutely need to make finals, no excuses. I think you're letting us off way too lightly to suggest otherwise.

[Webby]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Next year will be interesting.

We simply must keep improving, but our defense looks terrible given we still rely heavily on Morris and Murphy. If they hold their form and we can develop Talia/Roberts and a few others, then finals should be on the radar. If they don't develop and Morris/Murphy decline, we could stagnate.

It's a tight competition which makes it difficult. I tend to think the aim should be to play finals, but having said that, we could have 10-11 wins miss finals and still improve.

2016 we absolutely need to make finals, no excuses. I think you're letting us off way too lightly to suggest otherwise.

I think you hit the nail on the head re Morris and/or Murphy coming out of the side at end 2015 or 2016 (or during 2016). This is my issue. They'll be very, very hard to replace. Murphy and Morris are club greats. The enormity of their looming retirements mean that I wouldn't be expecting finals in 2016. We're still two more years of introducing 20-21 year olds before we're a finals team. Although I'd be delighted to be proven wrong!

The terrible state of our list in 2010 shouldn't be underestimated. It was very very old by our third prelim year... It really should've had a mini-overhaul (similar to Collingwood's current one) from the end of 2009. However we just didn't have the 2005-2009 draftees to come through.... So we were in a position where we might as well have one last crack at a GF with a very old list... But what would be left at the end of 2010 was always going to be a big, big worry. So it's been a long road back!

We're at a point now where we'll probably have a 19 year old and a 22 year old finishing 1&2 in our b&f. Potentially another 22 year old finishing 4th. We've got three rising star nominees and another who's not far off a nomination. However we have very little in the 26-29 age group and 4 or 5 guns who are 30+. The 30+ retirements will hold us down in 2016, IMO, but we'll be primed by 2017.

As I say, I'd be delighted to see us in finals in 2016, but I certainly wouldn't expect it.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Good post Webby.

I mentioned something similar in another thread recently, that looking at the numbers doesn't explain the change in reliance we've had over the course of this season and the age of the players who have really been driving our performance.

I'm somewhat optimistic about our chances at finals next year, if a couple of close ones had gone our way this year, ie. both Bombers games, the Crows, etc, we'd be right in the mix this year.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Fair response, Webby. Enjoying the input this thread has generated thus far.

What it does solidify is that our drafting over the next two years is still absolutely critical. We have done very well since 2010, and whilst the bulk of the work is done, it'll be all for nothing if we don't add another batch of quality players (both kids and through trading/free agency).

It will require us to be cut throat with our list management decisions too, and it's why I think the likes of Pearce, Young, Prudden, Cordy, Roberts, Talia and co. need to show something in the next 12 months. I hope we don't fall into the trap of holding onto players too long like we have in the past.

If we don't make finals in 2016 then I will put that down to poor drafting/list management. We've had long enough to plan for the decline/retirements of Morris and Murphy.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Had a really strange feeling since the crap happened with Harbrow and Ward, and now with free agency, etc, that no matter how well we draft we are just going to get pilfered of all our best players.

[comrade]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

Had a really strange feeling since the crap happened with Harbrow and Ward, and now with free agency, etc, that no matter how well we draft we are just going to get pilfered of all our best players.

I'm confident that the personnel and structure we have in place now is much better prepared to ward off (pun intended) rival bids. Yes, we may lose a player here and there but I'd be shocked if we lost one of our real guns.

It does suck watching Callan Ward tear it up each week, though.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

I'm confident that the personnel and structure we have in place now is much better prepared to ward off (pun intended) rival bids. Yes, we may lose a player here and there but I'd be shocked if we lost one of our real guns.

It does suck watching Callan Ward tear it up each week, though.

It makes it easier to 'take' losing Ward when you realise we got Macrae out of it.

Ward's very good, but I know who I'd rather, and what type of player is more difficult to find.

[Remi Moses]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

On SEN at the moment is a promo of "crunch time" and Crazy Vossy saying we should "pay overs" for a key forward.
what's fev up to Crazy Vossy?

[Webby]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

I'm somewhat optimistic about our chances at finals next year, if a couple of close ones had gone our way this year, ie. both Bombers games, the Crows, etc, we'd be right in the mix this year.

The only thing about the old "bank our wins and add the close ones" approach is that one also has to consider the fact that we won a few tight ones, too. It's a swings and roundabouts thing. If we're talking about Adelaide and Essendon games, we also have to consider the Richmond and Melbourne games which went our way. Plus, we actually had a relatively soft draw this year. A lot of the teams we played twice were pretty poor.

I think that eleven wins next year would really test us and eleven wins probably wouldn't nab us 8th. What I'm looking for is Talia and Roberts beginning to chop out Morris. Also Wallis, Bonts and Hunter getting more time in midfield. Perhaps even Clay Smith in the second half of the year if his knee heals well. I want to see JJ imposing himself from a back flank and perhaps Darley making a similarly big step. I want to see Campbell and Cordy taking some load off Will and I want to see Zaine Cordy and Jayden Foster developing in the VFL side - along with a couple of draftees and perhaps another KPP from a trade.

Having said that, if we win 8 again, I'll be a bit disappointed. Twelve wins to make finals is a stretch. I think ten to eleven wins and a finish of 10th or so should be about par next year, with finals a good bonus.

Thinking back to 2006, our developing team got those bonus wins, snuck into the eight and, with nothing to lose, knocked off Collingwood. A great day. However we got smashed the following week and 2007 was a let down before we were primed in 2008. We might pinch finals next year, but I think we'd be stretched to do it. Nonetheless, I think we're a genuine finals team in 2017 and a chance to pinch 8th by 2016. Come what may, our window should be front and centre in 2018-21.

Of course, this is just my take on it.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

I see things a little differently, but Webby is probably more realistic than I am.

By next year Macca will be in his fourth year at the club and should be starting to talk about making finals, ie bottom of the top 8. Guys like Libba, Roughead, Wallis, Dahl would have been at the club long enough to takeover leadership roles and be our young core group to take us to the next level. In the middle to upper age bracket, Higgins has had a very good season, Crameri is 26 years old, Grant 25, Stevens, Dickson will all cover the 100 plus games bracket. We will still have Cooney, Murphy, Minson and Morris as the mature players and the younger players such as Macrae, Stringer, Hrovat, Hunter will be in their third year. I am not expecting too much from last years recruits, but they will also be contributing. Campbell/Cordy will be taking over more and more ruck duties. The key will be Roberts and Talia in the backline and Jones needs to step up.

8 wins last year and this, with at least 5 games under 10 points this year, I feel is not unrealistic in 2015 to get 12 wins and make finals, otherwise, Macca is in danger of failure.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2013 vs 2014 and how 2015 and beyond is looking

I think it's easy to say we should be better next year, but our midfield lapses and defensive mistakes seem to be down to inexperience as much as anything else. Knowing where to be and what to do in constantly changing and challenging circumstances comes with experience, and being durable and strong enough to endurance run out and survive the knocks from bigger sides over a whole season also comes with time in the game and building up the body.

And introducing new inexperienced players as the experienced ones fade away will not make it easy for us. I'd give it another 2-3 years before we have a group of talented players approaching their mid twenties that are battle ready to challenge top 4.