How the Bailey Smith trade has proved to be a win-win, Smith’s midfield time at both clubs compared

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  • Axe Man
    Hall of Fame
    • Nov 2008
    • 11007

    How the Bailey Smith trade has proved to be a win-win, Smith’s midfield time at both clubs compared

    How the Bailey Smith trade has proved to be a win-win, Smith’s midfield time at both clubs compared

    It looks like another Geelong steal on paper, but both clubs have come out winners from the Bailey Smith trade. We assess the move and look back at whether Smith was misused at The Kennel.

    When Bailey Smith faces his former side in a hotly anticipated blockbuster on Thursday night, he will be coming up against two stars who kept him out of the Western Bulldogs engine room.

    The former Dog has been let off the leash at the Cattery, shooting into Brownlow Medal contention as he amasses disposals and metres gained at will, a luxury he didn’t receive at the Bulldogs in recent years.

    A comment from Smith after Geelong’s thumping win over Port Adelaide raised eyebrows about his time at Whitten Oval.

    Fox Footy boundary rider Ben Dixon asked about the best thing playing under the Geelong method, to which Smith replied: “They celebrate your strengths as a player. And you work on those and you keep exploring those, they are not so worried about what you can’t do well, they try to pump you up for what you can do well and we sort of all complement each other.”

    BAILEY SMITH'S MIDFIELD TIME - YEAR ON YEAR
    2020 2021 2022 2023 2025
    Wing 5% 38% 3% 2% 11%
    Midfield 79% 37% 63% 42% 75%
    Forward 16% 25% 34% 56% 14%
    AFL Rating #169 #67 #197 #249 #21
    ​​
    BAILEY SMITH FOUR-TEAM TRADE

    WESTERN BULLDOGS

    Out: Bailey Smith and Jack Macrae

    In: Matt Kennedy and pick 17 (Cooper Hynes)

    GEELONG

    Out: Pick 17 (Cooper Hynes), Pick 38 (Harry O'Farrell)

    In: Bailey Smith and pick 45 (James Polkinghorne)

    CARLTON

    Out: Matt Kennedy

    In: Pick 38 (Harry O'Farrell)

    ST KILDA

    Out: Pick 45 (Jay Polkinghorne)

    In: Jack Macrae

    The comments in isolation highlight the Geelong system and their uncanny knack to bring out the best in players – think Tyson Stengle, Lawson Humphries, Shaun Mannagh and countless other late and rookie picks who have thrived.

    But Bulldogs fans would view it as yet another cheeky dig at his former club that adds a little more spice to an already heated battle.

    It is a small sample size, but the dominance of Smith in his first season after a serious knee injury begs the question: was Smith misused at The Kennel?

    The short answer is no.

    The numbers suggest Smith wasn’t afforded the opportunity to maximise his gifts at the Western Bulldogs without a fully-fledged midfield role for the majority of his time at the club.

    However, this was because the Bulldogs boasted one of the best engine rooms in the game at that point with Bontempelli, Liberatore, Jack Macrae and Adam Treloar in their prime.

    And with the Dogs midfield firing on all cylinders in 2025, the trade has proved to be a win-win for both clubs.

    After giving up Smith and Macrae to Geelong and St Kilda during the trade period, the Bulldogs are the highest scoring team from stoppage on record according to Champion Data — averaging 50.1 points per game — and are the best ball movement team since Hawthorn in 2012.

    Highest Stoppage Scoring Teams - Since 1999
    Team/season Average points
    Western Bulldogs 2025 50.1
    Hawthorn 2012 46.5
    Hawthorn 2013 45.9
    Hawthorn 2014 45.5

    Looking back, Smith was one of the top young talents in the game at the Bulldogs, but his performance at that point didn’t warrant sidelining those four quality players.

    Bontempelli was rated in the top 10 in the competition in every season from 2020-2023 according to Champion Data and earned three All-Australian blazers.

    Macrae recorded back-to-back All-Australians in 2021 – where he led the competition for disposals and was the 13th rated player in the competition — and 2022 (33rd rated player).

    Liberatore didn’t receive the same accolades but rated even more highly by Champion Data, viewed as a top 10 player in 2021 (fifth), 2022 (ninth) and 2023 (eighth), and 16th in 2020 under their rating system.
    MIDFIELD TIME OF FOUR BIG DOGS - 2020-2023
    Marcus Bontempelli
    2020 2021 2022 2023
    Midfield 86% 82% 67% 90%
    Forward 14% 18% 33% 10%
    AFL Rating #10 #10 #1 #4
    Tom Liberatore
    2020 2021 2022 2023
    Wing 0% 0% 3% 0%
    Midfield 77% 87% 71% 95%
    Forward 23% 13% 26% 5%
    AFL Rating #16 #5 #9 #8
    Jack Macrae
    2020 2021 2022 2023
    Wing 4% 0% 4% 5%
    Midfield 88% 96% 82% 53%
    Forward 8% 4% 14% 42%
    AFL Rating #131 #13 #33 #51
    Adam Treloar
    2020 2021 2022 2023
    Defence x 0% 21% 0%
    Wing x 15% 6% 0%
    Midfield x 43% 47% 88%
    Forward x 42% 26% 12%
    AFL Rating DNQ DNQ #94 #61

    Smith’s biggest midfield season at the Dogs came in his second campaign in 2020, spending 79 per cent of games as a midfielder, 16 per cent as a forward and five per cent on the wing.

    That is a more significant on-ball stint than this year, where Smith has spent 75 per cent of his time in the midfield, 11 per cent on a wing – where he acts as another inside midfielder at stoppages – and just 14 per cent of his time forward.

    Treloar arrived at the club at the end of 2020 season and Smith’s midfield time dropped to 37 per cent the following year.

    Smith still managed to turn heads that season with a stunning finals series, tallying 27 disposals and three goals against Brisbane in the semi-final and adding another four goals and 23 possessions in the preliminary final to spur the Dogs into the decider in Perth.

    It was the endurance machine’s highest rated season at the Bulldogs according to Champion Data, rated as the 67th best player in the competition. Not bad for a youngster who hadn’t even celebrated his 21st birthday.

    He was given more chances in the guts in 2022 – 63 per cent midfield time – but didn’t have the same impact, rated as the 197th player by Champion Data. Much of that was because of his errant disposal, averaging 29 possessions and 20 uncontested possesions yet going at just 54 per cent kicking efficiency.

    In his final season at the Bulldogs he played 56 per cent of matches as a forward and was the competition’s 249th rated player.

    Smith may well have been causing mayhem to the Cats himself on Thursday night had he not succumbed that ill-timed ACL rupture in December 2023.

    Macrae was demoted to the substitute and the VFL in 2024 and the damaging Ed Richards was thrown in from a back flank with impressive results.

    The red-hot Richards has gone to another level this season and is now the No.1 player in the competition in 2025.

    And since round six, four Dogs midfielders sit in the top eight rated players in the competition – Richards at one, Bontempelli at two, second-year talent Joel Freijah at seven and Liberatore at eight.

    On the surface, the Cats nabbed a top echelon midfielder for a steal, who is now taking the mickey in a similar fashion to his dominant draft year of 2018.

    But six months on from that trade, where the Cats gave up pick 17 and a swap of picks in exchange for blistering ‘Baz’, both teams have come out as winners.

    Geelong’s pick shuffle saw them nab medium forward James Polkinghorne, who is leading Cats VFL’s goalkicking and has some promising attributes.

    The Dogs secured Matt Kennedy in the deal, who is enjoying a career-best season, and with the first-round pick they selected Cooper Hynes, a high-impact forward midfielder who will be an exciting watch in the future.

    Watching Smith renew ties with Bontempelli and Liberatore is going to be a treat. Get the popcorn out.
  • Boots
    Rookie List
    • Nov 2020
    • 434

    #2
    Originally posted by Axe Man
    Fox Footy boundary rider Ben Dixon asked about the best thing playing under the Geelong method, to which Smith replied: "They celebrate your strengths as a player. And you work on those and you keep exploring those, they are not so worried about what you can't do well, they try to pump you up for what you can do well and we sort of all complement each other."
    It's worth pointing out that this is exactly what Liam Picken and Easton Wood said (in interviews in A Wink from the Universe) about Bevo's coaching approach, an approach that led to their transformations into a small forward and intercept defender.

    Comment

    • Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
      Bulldog Team of the Century
      • Jan 2007
      • 8896

      #3
      Thanks for sharing the article. I disagree with the article's premise. It's not a win/win. Geelong made out like absolute gangbusters, and meanwhile we were forced into the situation by a player who forced us into a situation to accept a less than equitable deal. Pick 18 for Bailey Smith... my goodness..Geelong absolutely must've been p1ssing themselves all offseason about this.

      I don't wish Smith any specific ill-will, but I certainly am not feeling like buying into the Bailey Smith lovefest.

      As I type this, I am about ready to puke by the pre-game interviews and coverage by Fox. It's so cringey.... David Zita and the other dude were just fanboying over Smith as he ran some solo drills on the field, and then came off near the them they giggled like schoolkids 'he's right there!"
      Its just so confected too.

      Comment

      • Bornadog
        WOOF Clubhouse Leader
        • Jan 2007
        • 66094

        #4
        Originally posted by Yankee Hotel Foxtrot
        Thanks for sharing the article. I disagree with the article's premise. It's not a win/win. Geelong made out like absolute gangbusters, and meanwhile we were forced into the situation by a player who forced us into a situation to accept a less than equitable deal. Pick 18 for Bailey Smith... my goodness..Geelong absolutely must've been p1ssing themselves all offseason about this.

        I don't wish Smith any specific ill-will, but I certainly am not feeling like buying into the Bailey Smith lovefest.

        As I type this, I am about ready to puke by the pre-game interviews and coverage by Fox. It's so cringey.... David Zita and the other dude were just fanboying over Smith as he ran some solo drills on the field, and then came off near the them they giggled like schoolkids 'he's right there!"
        Its just so confected too.
        We forget the mega trade landed us Pick 18 and Matt Kennedy - for Smith and Macrae. We then picked up Hynes with the pick. If Hynes works out to be a gun - we have a big win, but I would take Matt Kennedy over Smith any day and Macrae was never going to play AFL for us again.
        FFC: Established 1883

        Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

        Comment

        • NAUGHTY100
          Rookie List
          • Dec 2024
          • 407

          #5

          Win / Win yes , but it depends on what eyes are seeing it , if your a Cats fan , your cheering from the roof tops .
          If your a Dogs fan your very happy , that you have gained M Kennedy , who right now is rated as one of the best inside mids in the business .
          Now the question is who's better off ?.
          Geelong have them selves a 24 year old midfielder who is tearing up the completion ,and has at least 8 good years ahead of him , Smith is that link player that is complimenting Holmes , and their run is breaking teams apart .
          Western Bulldogs have M Kennedy who has replaced Macrae , and Cooper Hynes from that deal.
          One big advantage Kennedy has over Macrea , is that Macrea never , during his career with us or now St Kilda kicked more then point 5 of a goal per game .
          Even now while his having a good season at the Saints he has NO GOALS to his credit .
          Kennedy on the other hand is averaging 1.3 goals a game this year for a total of nearly 14.5 goals this year .
          So who is the big winner ? Smith is only 24 while Kennedy has just turned 28 , so in my opinion Geelong win by a nose .
          But its a far cry from the Dunkley deal or the Stringer deal where we were big losers .
          Although we still have Hynes who looks like a really likely type and if he lives up to forecast of most here , the tables are turned and the Western Bulldogs become the winner .
          Time will tell .

          Comment

          • Angak
            Rookie List
            • Jan 2023
            • 97

            #6
            I think it’s too early to judge the Smith trade as a success or failure.
            If I were to analogise it to a relationship, Geelong spent the last 24 months courting him and now that they’ve finally got him, they’re deep in the honeymoon phase. The real question is what happens when that wears off. Because the cold, hard reality of dealing with someone like Baz is that everything he says and does centres around himself. It’s never his fault. Every time something goes wrong, it’s the media, or it’s his former teammates who he claims "resented"him because of the trade talk. He’s too in his own head to take proper ownership or genuinely invest in those around him. I reckon we won’t know the full picture until a couple of years down the track, once the honeymoon’s over.


            Comment

            • hujsh
              Hall of Fame
              • Nov 2007
              • 11825

              #7
              We saw the highs (30 odd touches) but we also saw the lows (multiple goals kicked against him by direct opponents, general unaccountability) and the truth is while he's a good player he's a see ball get ball type whose only real defensive skill is sticking a tackle when the opportunity presents itself. Most would say he's a better player than Kennedy, does he fit our side better than Kennedy?

              I'm sure he can be a part of very successful teams, but there's still a lot to workaround required with him to minimse his deficiencies and maximise his talents. Jai Newcomb tearing him a new asshole still lingers in my mind...
              [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

              Comment

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