Dogs need review of their whole footy department

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

Sam power, can you please use BT as an advisor on drafting points ? Maybe give him a hint or 2 about player list management as well.

Sam is the best judge I’ve seen, especially on future pick trading. He’s scarily accurate about picking good times for us to trade out, and when to trade in (less Dunkley forcing his hand last year).

So here’s my secret tip for y’all. If we are very confident about rocketing back into finals or top 6 next year you will see us trading a few future picks to try to bring in talent. If we are concerned that next year might be another year without finals or falling down the ladder you will see us not do much future trading for fear of overpaying (see Freo & Richmond this year - Lobb a little this year). Thinking on this today, this will be the tell about where we think the performances will be next year. Forget the rhetoric, future pick trading is strongly linked to internal expectation. So keep an eye on this through the trade period and then live trading at the ND to a lesser degree.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

thanks for sharering the secret to unlocking how to do draft point calculations.

I am hopeless at soduko and rubix cube. No wonder this stuff makes no sense to me.

Neither can I! But despite what might be perceived as negativity sometimes, I just want the club to reach its potential and succeed. So whenever I have a spare moment I like to think through how through trading and pick/point trading where we have priority access kids to suggest ideas for us getting back to the promise land. I can’t coach, I’m no good tactically, so list management math has become something I like to look at.

[Grantysghost]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

Nah, just math. I am good at calculation.

As I say I’m pretty confident there’s a path to trade up.

It's your super power.

[Bulldog Revolution]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

I remember a particular person raving to me about Ayce Cordy and to be honest I've never forgiven him.

I've been hrt too many times before.

The cordy experience was a big lesson - don?t get too excited with big men who do the small men stuff unbelievably well unless those big men also can do the big man parts of the game

It also showed me how speculative 6 foot 7 and above kids generally are

[mjp]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

It?s a math based trade. So the normal trade narrative isn?t relevant.

It's only math based if the player WANTED by the club doing the trading is available in either scenario...

It becomes very flesh and blood based if there is any hint of a decision that could compromise access to the player deemed the 'golden child' (whomever that may be). From all reports, Dursma is Hawthorn's golden child, Curtin is certainly West Coast's...

It's math based until it isn't.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

It's only math based if the player WANTED by the club doing the trading is available in either scenario...

It becomes very flesh and blood based if there is any hint of a decision that could compromise access to the player deemed the 'golden child' (whomever that may be). From all reports, Dursma is Hawthorn's golden child, Curtin is certainly West Coast's...

It's math based until it isn't.

True, the comment was in response to a big club getting the draft points trade. I don’t think that’s the case for GCS, I think their trade is math based.

If it’s in the hypothetical:

Reid - Melb
Walter - GCS
McKercher/Duursma- North
Duursma/McKercher - Hawks
Curtin - WCE
Stevens - Dogs

I think everyone walks out of that happy. Unless North get top compo on McKay… but then we just have to outbid Melbourne for the GCS pick if WCE wouldn’t trade the Pick 5 originally tied to Freo by refusing the downgrade on Pick 1.

[EasternWest]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

The cordy experience was a big lesson - don?t get too excited with big men who do the small men stuff unbelievably well unless those big men also can do the big man parts of the game

It also showed me how speculative 6 foot 7 and above kids generally are

That's sensible but makes me no less angry at you.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

That's sensible but makes me no less angry at you.

Does it make you feel any better knowing we could’ve got Barry Hall a year earlier than we did but Sydney demanded the pick we wanted for Ayce? And what the 2009 prelim might have been if we had Hall in that 7 point loss and if we could’ve got over Geelong in the GF. But didn’t want to give Ayce up.

Feel better?

[EasternWest]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

Does it make you feel any better knowing we could’ve got Barry Hall a year earlier than we did but Sydney demanded the pick we wanted for Ayce? And what the 2009 prelim might have been if we had Hall in that 7 point loss and if we could’ve got over Geelong in the GF. But didn’t want to give Ayce up.

Feel better?

No. It do not.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

No. It do not.

Perk up. You still have two Bentleys. So we blew a chance at a flag for ammo’s grade player.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

Does it make you feel any better knowing we could’ve got Barry Hall a year earlier than we did but Sydney demanded the pick we wanted for Ayce? And what the 2009 prelim might have been if we had Hall in that 7 point loss and if we could’ve got over Geelong in the GF. But didn’t want to give Ayce up.

Feel better?

What wondrous comfort that brings to me BT, thanks so much for sharing that.
I might go and watch the 2009 preliminary, and the 97 preliminary oh and stuff it the freaking 94 Billy Brown less garbage.

[macca]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

The cordy experience was a big lesson - don?t get too excited with big men who do the small men stuff unbelievably well unless those big men also can do the big man parts of the game

It also showed me how speculative 6 foot 7 and above kids generally are

Cordy had an extra super power , his knee

Your right though , talls are highly speculative
Tom hickey is a good example
He played well in his last 2 seasons. Was behind a few at west coast

Schache is another example , has all the physical attributes but no angry pills.

Come to think of it , may deserve an anlaysis of highly speculative talls in the eker thread

[EasternWest]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

Perk up. You still have two Bentleys.

Can you stop messaging me I'm trying to sleep on a pillow filled with cash.

[azabob]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

Cordy had an extra super power , his knee

Your right though , talls are highly speculative
Tom hickey is a good example
He played well in his last 2 seasons. Was behind a few at west coast

Schache is another example , has all the physical attributes but no angry pills.

Come to think of it , may deserve an anlaysis of highly speculative talls in the eker thread

Right knee, wrong Cordy.

Played the long game with Ayce Cordy.

[mjp]

Re: Dogs need review of their whole footy department

True, the comment was in response to a big club getting the draft points trade. I don’t think that’s the case for GCS, I think their trade is math based.

Yeah - 100% mate.

I know I quoted you but that was just on the whole 'generalisation' of trading based on 'maths' not on the specifics of the GC deal. I just think 'everyone' gets so caught up in all the discussion of points and rounds and trades right now that the fundamentals of building a list - you actually need to get the players who you need - are lost on a lot of people.

If we trade down from our pick to get another first and a future second, we'll be better off....

Well - MAYBE. But only if the players you pick are the right selections for your club in terms of physical fit, cultural fit and developmental fit...

How do you get that right? Well...you (make an educated) guess. Or just guess. And cross your fingers.