Recruiters Eye: Do you want 'PROVEN' or 'POTENTIAL'

[mjp]

There's a couple of classic test cases in this year's pool.

Example #1: Fred Rodriguez.
AFL Academy, played league footy at South Freo, WA MVP at the nationals...renowned for his professional prep and doing 'everything' in his power to make it.

Example #2: Matt LeRay
I mean - footy stuff. Tick, Tick. Played well at the champs and all...but is footy even his best sport? Spent last summer playing cricket? I mean - is he even scratching the surface of what he might be able to achieve? Is footy even his best chance of becoming a professional sportsman?

To be fair, there's a bit of mustard on the LeRay comments above - he was AA at the nationals as well! - but the overall question remains. Would you prefer the player who is ALREADY preparing like a professional - or is there more growth in those who are either later to the sport (or to mature!).

What are YOU looking for? Are these uber professional kids setting themselves up for success or failure - should they be spending more time being kids and less time in the weights room? Or is the work they are doing just preparing them for success at senior level?

[GVGjr]

Good thread and a great question.
Of the two players mentioned LeRay might have a bit more appeal for clubs and he 'should' be able to become an effective senior player
He just has more athletic gifts than most
Rodrigues is a really good footballer though, knows how to play, good footy IQ, kicks the ball neatly off both feet,
He would be a safe bet to develop into a senior player.

It really depends on list needs but Rodriguez would be my preference.

[jazzadogs]

I see it as very grey...

Super professional, prepares well, but not very well rounded as an individual because it's footy or bust? That's a worry.

Late to the sport with athletic gifts and moments where they've looked good? Risky because lots of guys can have good moments... Picking off a couple of moments rather than consistent results should really only be done for the late picks/rookies.

Fwiw I think results against men, in VFL/SANFL/WAFL games, would carry a lot of weight for me.

[mjp]

Fwiw I think results against men, in VFL/SANFL/WAFL games, would carry a lot of weight for me.

Did Bont ever play footy in senior games before getting drafted? Treloar? Liber? Richards? I know Naughton did (a bit) at Peel...

I get the appeal of it (playing senior footy) but a pretty solid majority don't...hell, Dangerfield went back and played u18's AFTER he was drafted (and he's annoying but he can actually play footy).

[mjp]

Good thread and a great question.
Of the two players mentioned LeRay might have a bit more appeal for clubs and he 'should' be able to become an effective senior player
He just has more athletic gifts than most
Rodrigues is a really good footballer though, knows how to play, good footy IQ, kicks the ball neatly off both feet,
He would be a safe bet to develop into a senior player.

It really depends on list needs but Rodriguez would be my preference.

I didn't want to get into a LeRay vs Rodriguez 'thing' - more a:

Player "A" is renowned for absolutely getting the best out of himself - are these sort of players likely to be limited in their improvement because they already do so much right? Or are they just primed to take a leap??
Player "B" is 'talented' but it's hard to know where the ceiling might be due to 'outside influences' - are these players likely to 'go through the roof' in a full time environment or maybe they'll find it all too much and fall apart??

[Bornadog]

Bailey Smith was a crazy trainer and wanting to prepare himself for AFL. When he arrived at the club, he had to be told to tone it down and follow instructions from the coaches and stop doing his own thing. You can easily burn out and either affect you mentally or end up giving up the game.

[Throughandthrough]

Literally no one gets drafted on proven. In 99% of selections it’s potential. There’s plenty of good players in sanfl, vfl and presumably wafl that are better than some of the afl listed players , but in theory they are as good as they will get.

[GVGjr]

I didn't want to get into a LeRay vs Rodriguez 'thing' - more a:

Player "A" is renowned for absolutely getting the best out of himself - are these sort of players likely to be limited in their improvement because they already do so much right? Or are they just primed to take a leap??
Player "B" is 'talented' but it's hard to know where the ceiling might be due to 'outside influences' - are these players likely to 'go through the roof' in a full time environment or maybe they'll find it all too much and fall apart??

In an early part of a draft, I'm going for the proven player and perhaps later it will be more on potential.
My preference is the proven player but there are some exceptions.

[Uninformed]

Recruiters do their magic by seeing what a player will be. For us it would be a might be, but they can see it. There are no rules - proven or potential, disciplined or laid back. Just gotta be able to see it.

[jazzadogs]

Did Bont ever play footy in senior games before getting drafted? Treloar? Liber? Richards? I know Naughton did (a bit) at Peel...

I get the appeal of it (playing senior footy) but a pretty solid majority don't...hell, Dangerfield went back and played u18's AFTER he was drafted (and he's annoying but he can actually play footy).

It's not the only consideration obviously, but I think if it came down to two guys and one had performed in good quality senior football, it would increase my confidence in their potential to perform. But I'm not a recruiter, coach, or even watcher of junior football, so what do I know.

[NAUGHTY100]

I think a kid who puts all his effort and attention into what ever sport it may be has only 2 outcomes in his own mind.
1 . He becomes that great player that everyone saw the potential in him . His succeeded , his got to the top ,great player in the eyes of most people exactly where he thought he would be .
2 . He becomes a good player in the eyes of most people , but in his own mind he hasn't fulfilled the potential that he himself held .
So i belive kids should be kids , they should concentrate on doing their best at their chosen sport sure , but they should also live life enjoy being a kid , because as we all know once you reach the professional status , you either put all your effort into it or people pass you by , some kids get by on natural ability , but i think that only does you for a time , then you to have to knuckle down and do the hard work or you fall by the wayside , so many naturally gifted footballers fall way after a time because they become a bit laxidasical in their preparation every thing use to be so easy for them , and the really solid hard trainers only get better and the gifted players fall behind because they dont have that dedication .
So i would prefere to pick up a draft bolter , a kid who gets better each year, each game , as opposed to a player who has been a natural , the chosen one from a very young age .
As far as playing senior football at a young age goes , i think its an advantage because they start to know whats going to be asked of them , but it dosn't always translate , we have a perfect example of a kid who played senior football at 15 won a B&F , but is struggling a little in the seconds , namely Luke Kennedy , so playing senior football at a young age isnt an automatic reason for success .

[Dogs 24/7]

Whether we like it or not clubs will be attracted to the athletic players. Pace and athleticism counts a lot in the determination clubs make.

[jeemak]

I think it depends on your younger talent profile, the picks you have at your disposal over a few years and the type of players available around your picks.

If you've been loading up the list with bankable commodities who are progressing/projecting well, then a slightly speculative selection based on potential more so than demonstrated form is easier to justify. But if you've had a couple of misses for whatever reason, it makes it harder.

Drafting and trading is often viewed year by year by the commentariat and supporters (and dare I say some clubs reaching to appease different agendas), but it's a continuum that requires a blend of strategy and then responsiveness to changing conditions - good and bad.

So I guess it depends........!