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Hi all
As most of you know, I try and put together a top 20 each year on how I rate the players. This is based on a bit of U/18 footy I watch, along with a lot of research throughout the year. History shows I get a lot wrong, but over the 10 years or so I've created this post I've managed to get a couple right, like Matt Crouch at 9, Mark Hutchings at 16 and Brodie Grundy at 4 - all ahead of where they were seen by scribes and clubs. We'll ignore Josh Kelly at 12, Pat Cripps at 20 and others who went un-drafted!
Anyway...onto the 2018 draft, shaping up to one of the most intriguing and option-filled drafts for years. Plenty of SA players too!
1. Jack Lukosius - Key forward - 194.5cm, 83kgs
Hard to go past the smooth moving, accurate kicking Lukosius at #1. He's been successful at SANFL level already and should play 200 games of AFL football, being a top 2-3 player at club who selects him. Showcased his athletic ability and endurance with a sub 3 second 20m sprint and solid Yo Yo result for a big man at the Combine.
I have a feeling Adelaide will make an offer too good to refuse and take selections 2/3 off Gold Coast and secured Lukosius. Hard to see him not being selected by Gold Coast if a trade can't be done.
2. Izak Rankine - Small forward, midfielder - 79.5cm, 80kgs
Izak might be the riskiest of the top 4 or 5 players because he's small and there's a perception he can flash in and out of games, but gee, you've got to take the player who can be the best player in the draft early. He's another who has played league footy, had that brilliant game against Metro where he kicked 5 goals at the state champs. He's fast, agile, can jump, can kick goals and hurt a side with few possessions.
If Adelaide do land picks 2/3, they will surely add Rankine, if not, I could see him landing in Port's lap at pick 6.
3. Bailey Smith - Midfielder - 185.2cm, 82.5kgs
Smith is a bit harder to place as he had some injury concerns which meant he hasn't had as much exposure and development as some others this year. He's a good sized midfielder who can run, he's quick and he uses the ball well. He's one of those relatively complete packages and should be able to step into AFL football quickly. Finds plenty of the ball and is capable inside and out.
St Kilda would benefit from his class if they hold pick 4. If he gets through to our pick, hard to see us passing.
4. Sam Walsh - Midfielder - 183.7cm, 77gs
The running machine. He's going to develop into a very hard working, hard running midfielder perhaps in a similar mould to Tom Scully. Comfortable winning the ball in tight, and will rack it up on the outside. Will continue to add strength to his frame meaning he's got some scope to improve contested aspects of his game and become an important two-way runner.
I think he will compliment Carlton's midfield nicely and don't see any reason for them to pass. He's as sure a thing as there is in the draft.
5. Connor Rozee - Midfielder/utility - 184.5cm, 74kgs
It's taken the SANFL finals for me to move Connor up this high on my draft board. After Norwood didn't win the GF, I considered removing him entirely...anyway...He just does things. Little moments at senior level where he'll split or win a crucial contest at a super important moment, he'll move through traffic and execute. He's not a weight of numbers player, he needs to add size, and is a risk because I'm not sure he's ever going to be as efficient with low touches as a Rankine, or accumulate enough like a Walsh, but if he can improve across a few areas just a little, he's a pretty complete player.
Not knowing who ends up with what picks makes this hard, but I wonder if Brisbane would consider him if they hold their pick? He'd also compliment Fremantle's early picks last year. He'll land top 8 for sure.
6. Ben King - Key position player - 202cm, 87kgs
It's hard to split the King twins, but an ACL at their size means I have snuck Ben in first. He can play both ends and will be a hard match up. Very good across the first 5, 10, 20m which means he'll be good at creating separation as a forward, or shutting down space in defence. Future rule changes may assist him, too. If he can learn to kick straight in front of goal, look out.
Could he be part of Gold Coast's plans, if they lose Lynch and May? Would we be tempted at pick 7? Fremantle might not need him if they land Lobb and Hogan. He's one of the hardest players to place.
7. Max King - Key position player - 203.7cm, 90kgs
He's a bigger twin now, but coming off an ACL does cause concern. He's had a year as an under-ager in which he stood out and started the year with a bang before his injury. He'll be near impossible to stop as a key forward one on one, it'd be like Mason Cox if he really knew how to play football.
The Saints are rumoured to be interested, so maybe if they an trade down and add a couple of selections between 6-10 they can take a punt on Max?
8. Nick Blakey - Utility - 195cm, 82kgs (Swans)
Another relatively free-hit for the Swans, he's a great size for AFL football and will be able to play any position on the park. He's got a bad injury history over the past couple of years, but if he can put that behind him, I wonder if he's the potential 'Bont' from this draft and a player they'll wish they had 2 of - one at CHF one in the middle.
Swans will take him and use their stockpile of second and third round picks to do it. Well played, Sydney. Once again you've proven to be more astute than most.
9. Jackson Hately - Midfielder - 189.3cm, 80kgs
This is where it gets interesting...IMO, it's interesting all the way through the first round, but the top 8 seems pretty set (meaning there'll be at least one late flyer who everyone has missed). Jackson won't be the late flyer, but he'll be that well-rounded, effective, Rising Star contender that everyone looks at and wonders why he wasn't rate higher? He's a bit vanilla in that he just consistently gets it done and has proven himself against men. If he had tested it would've been interesting to see his speed/agility.
I have a sneaky suspicion he'll land Essendon or Geelong. Crows a very good chance if they don't move up the draft order.
10. Luke Valente - Midfielder - 186.5cm, 82kgs
A fifth SA player in my top 10...I've finally done it...now I can retire. Luke is a good Norwood boy, led the U/18 side this year and is another of the pesky, vanilla midfielders who does just about all aspects of the game well in a no-fuss, no nonsense manner. He's the type of player the coach will love, he'll work hard both ways and get every bit out of himself. I'd be pretty confident if he lands in the right scenario he can play 150+ games of AFL football.
I bet Richmond take him. Just to prove they know what they're doing again. Ergh.
As most of you know, I try and put together a top 20 each year on how I rate the players. This is based on a bit of U/18 footy I watch, along with a lot of research throughout the year. History shows I get a lot wrong, but over the 10 years or so I've created this post I've managed to get a couple right, like Matt Crouch at 9, Mark Hutchings at 16 and Brodie Grundy at 4 - all ahead of where they were seen by scribes and clubs. We'll ignore Josh Kelly at 12, Pat Cripps at 20 and others who went un-drafted!
Anyway...onto the 2018 draft, shaping up to one of the most intriguing and option-filled drafts for years. Plenty of SA players too!
1. Jack Lukosius - Key forward - 194.5cm, 83kgs
Hard to go past the smooth moving, accurate kicking Lukosius at #1. He's been successful at SANFL level already and should play 200 games of AFL football, being a top 2-3 player at club who selects him. Showcased his athletic ability and endurance with a sub 3 second 20m sprint and solid Yo Yo result for a big man at the Combine.
I have a feeling Adelaide will make an offer too good to refuse and take selections 2/3 off Gold Coast and secured Lukosius. Hard to see him not being selected by Gold Coast if a trade can't be done.
2. Izak Rankine - Small forward, midfielder - 79.5cm, 80kgs
Izak might be the riskiest of the top 4 or 5 players because he's small and there's a perception he can flash in and out of games, but gee, you've got to take the player who can be the best player in the draft early. He's another who has played league footy, had that brilliant game against Metro where he kicked 5 goals at the state champs. He's fast, agile, can jump, can kick goals and hurt a side with few possessions.
If Adelaide do land picks 2/3, they will surely add Rankine, if not, I could see him landing in Port's lap at pick 6.
3. Bailey Smith - Midfielder - 185.2cm, 82.5kgs
Smith is a bit harder to place as he had some injury concerns which meant he hasn't had as much exposure and development as some others this year. He's a good sized midfielder who can run, he's quick and he uses the ball well. He's one of those relatively complete packages and should be able to step into AFL football quickly. Finds plenty of the ball and is capable inside and out.
St Kilda would benefit from his class if they hold pick 4. If he gets through to our pick, hard to see us passing.
4. Sam Walsh - Midfielder - 183.7cm, 77gs
The running machine. He's going to develop into a very hard working, hard running midfielder perhaps in a similar mould to Tom Scully. Comfortable winning the ball in tight, and will rack it up on the outside. Will continue to add strength to his frame meaning he's got some scope to improve contested aspects of his game and become an important two-way runner.
I think he will compliment Carlton's midfield nicely and don't see any reason for them to pass. He's as sure a thing as there is in the draft.
5. Connor Rozee - Midfielder/utility - 184.5cm, 74kgs
It's taken the SANFL finals for me to move Connor up this high on my draft board. After Norwood didn't win the GF, I considered removing him entirely...anyway...He just does things. Little moments at senior level where he'll split or win a crucial contest at a super important moment, he'll move through traffic and execute. He's not a weight of numbers player, he needs to add size, and is a risk because I'm not sure he's ever going to be as efficient with low touches as a Rankine, or accumulate enough like a Walsh, but if he can improve across a few areas just a little, he's a pretty complete player.
Not knowing who ends up with what picks makes this hard, but I wonder if Brisbane would consider him if they hold their pick? He'd also compliment Fremantle's early picks last year. He'll land top 8 for sure.
6. Ben King - Key position player - 202cm, 87kgs
It's hard to split the King twins, but an ACL at their size means I have snuck Ben in first. He can play both ends and will be a hard match up. Very good across the first 5, 10, 20m which means he'll be good at creating separation as a forward, or shutting down space in defence. Future rule changes may assist him, too. If he can learn to kick straight in front of goal, look out.
Could he be part of Gold Coast's plans, if they lose Lynch and May? Would we be tempted at pick 7? Fremantle might not need him if they land Lobb and Hogan. He's one of the hardest players to place.
7. Max King - Key position player - 203.7cm, 90kgs
He's a bigger twin now, but coming off an ACL does cause concern. He's had a year as an under-ager in which he stood out and started the year with a bang before his injury. He'll be near impossible to stop as a key forward one on one, it'd be like Mason Cox if he really knew how to play football.
The Saints are rumoured to be interested, so maybe if they an trade down and add a couple of selections between 6-10 they can take a punt on Max?
8. Nick Blakey - Utility - 195cm, 82kgs (Swans)
Another relatively free-hit for the Swans, he's a great size for AFL football and will be able to play any position on the park. He's got a bad injury history over the past couple of years, but if he can put that behind him, I wonder if he's the potential 'Bont' from this draft and a player they'll wish they had 2 of - one at CHF one in the middle.
Swans will take him and use their stockpile of second and third round picks to do it. Well played, Sydney. Once again you've proven to be more astute than most.
9. Jackson Hately - Midfielder - 189.3cm, 80kgs
This is where it gets interesting...IMO, it's interesting all the way through the first round, but the top 8 seems pretty set (meaning there'll be at least one late flyer who everyone has missed). Jackson won't be the late flyer, but he'll be that well-rounded, effective, Rising Star contender that everyone looks at and wonders why he wasn't rate higher? He's a bit vanilla in that he just consistently gets it done and has proven himself against men. If he had tested it would've been interesting to see his speed/agility.
I have a sneaky suspicion he'll land Essendon or Geelong. Crows a very good chance if they don't move up the draft order.
10. Luke Valente - Midfielder - 186.5cm, 82kgs
A fifth SA player in my top 10...I've finally done it...now I can retire. Luke is a good Norwood boy, led the U/18 side this year and is another of the pesky, vanilla midfielders who does just about all aspects of the game well in a no-fuss, no nonsense manner. He's the type of player the coach will love, he'll work hard both ways and get every bit out of himself. I'd be pretty confident if he lands in the right scenario he can play 150+ games of AFL football.
I bet Richmond take him. Just to prove they know what they're doing again. Ergh.
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