What is a top 10 pick really worth?

[Dry Rot]

The 2018 draft is obviously a bit different to others, with live trading.

But what is a top 10 pick really worth?

Interesting article here:

Draft special: Ranking the top 10s from 2000-09

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-18/draft-special-ranking-the-top-10s-from-2000-2009

Aside from some particularly foul picks from us, so many top 10 picks are ordinary to duds.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but a top 10 pick is hardly a guarantee of a good to great 200+ gamer.

[ledge]

Re: What is a top 10 pick really worth?

Looking back I think you have to see if they are at their peak at 18 or have a lot of improvement in them, injury you can’t forecast unless they have a history of it, so I wouldn’t include injury ruining careers in a ratings.
The under 18 competition doesn’t allow tagging so it can also give false readings once pressure falls on a player.
We all grew up knowing kids who were guns but only when they were left alone.
A lot of things come into it also as in clubs development and position played within the team.
It’s an interesting look back though and it would be nice to see it compared to the 11 to 20 picks.

[mjp]

Re: What is a top 10 pick really worth?

It’s an interesting look back though and it would be nice to see it compared to the 11 to 20 picks.

Yeah...but picks 11-20 generally go to better teams, which makes for an easier transition, which...

So much of being successful is the player getting to the club that is right for THEM. It doesn't mean the club has a flawed development process just because a player doesn't make it...it doesn't mean the recruiters made a massive error...it just means that the match between club and player and point in time wasn't exactly right!

[AshMac]

Re: What is a top 10 pick really worth?

Yeah...but picks 11-20 generally go to better teams, which makes for an easier transition, which...

That’s a damn good point!

[Go_Dogs]

Re: What is a top 10 pick really worth?

The 2018 draft is obviously a bit different to others, with live trading.

But what is a top 10 pick really worth?

Interesting article here:

Draft special: Ranking the top 10s from 2000-09

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-18/draft-special-ranking-the-top-10s-from-2000-2009

Aside from some particularly foul picks from us, so many top 10 picks are ordinary to duds.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but a top 10 pick is hardly a guarantee of a good to great 200+ gamer.

My thoughts on this may be wrong, but the hit rate seems to have improved since 2009, although we are dealing with a smaller sample size and perhaps my view is clouded by recency bias.

If we look at the absolute best players in the competition, most of them have been picked at the top end.