2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

[bulldogtragic]

Obviously Finals Shape The Ultimate Outcome. So this is based on current ladder prediction as of today as an indicative draft pick trade order.

Assumptions:

- Suns extra draft pick, Pick 19 pushing the nominal picks out in the second round onwards by 1.
- 3 Free Agent compo before end of Round 2, 4 before end of Round 3.
- 4 Father/Sons & NGA bids matched before end of Round 2, 6 before end of Round 3.
- 3 losses of Picks Between Round 2 & 3 for matching bids by other clubs.

Thus, the indicative cost for Treloar & Hannan both nominally and after possible shuffling are:

In the order before the draft & the actual pick after the draft has commenced:

Treloar. Pick 37. 7 x picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 44 for Treloar (disregarding the 2020 swaps)
Hannan. Pick 55. 7 x net picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 62 for Hannan

[mjp]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

You are a star BT.

As always, if you trade into the future and bet on improved performance, you HAVE to deliver. Yes, Carlton and Liam Stocker, I'm looking at you!

[Happy Days]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

You are a star BT.

As always, if you trade into the future and bet on improved performance, you HAVE to deliver. Yes, Carlton and Liam Stocker, I'm looking at you!

Didn’t you see that awesome goal Stocker kicked from the boundary on the weekend? Shame it was for the other team.

[Twodogs]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Didn’t you see that awesome goal Stocker kicked from the boundary on the weekend? Shame it was for the other team.

Yep. Imagine how up and about Carlton supporters will be if he ever starts doing stuff like that for them?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

You are a star BT.

As always, if you trade into the future and bet on improved performance, you HAVE to deliver. Yes, Carlton and Liam Stocker, I'm looking at you!

Ironically, Treloar/Collingwood was the big failure with a future decent pick. They grabbed Howe, Aish & Treloar with Treloar being Pick 7 and a future first. I’m assuming they thought it would just happen. They didn’t do as you say, deliver, and it cost them another Pick 7.

As an aside, Treloar in 2015/2016 was Pick 7 x 2. Today he’s as an indication worth Pick 44 after shuffling (he’s still a gun) - That’s 3,288 Draft Points to Collingwood to acquire him to ‘today’ selling him for 362 Draft Points (that’s a 2,924 Draft Point Write down, worth Pick 1). They lost the bet in 2016 and I’d say they’re losing the bet we’d be mid ladder again (plus $1.5M). Someone needs to tell them that ‘if gambling isn’t fun, walk away’.

[Twodogs]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Ironically, Treloar/Collingwood was the big failure with a future decent pick. They grabbed Howe, Aish & Treloar with Treloar being Pick 7 and a future first. I’m assuming they thought it would just happen. They didn’t do as you say, deliver, and it cost them another Pick 7.

As an aside, Treloar in 2015/2016 was Pick 7 x 2. Today he’s as an indication worth Pick 44 after shuffling (he’s still a gun) - That’s 3,288 Draft Points to Collingwood to acquire him to ‘today’ selling him for 362 Draft Points (that’s a 2,924 Draft Point Write down, worth Pick 1). They lost the bet in 2016 and I’d say they’re losing the bet we’d be mid ladder again (plus $1.5M). Someone needs to tell them that ‘if gambling isn’t fun, walk away’.

Heh! They need one of those apps on the door of the drafting room that prevents them açess to the room if they are getting too silly.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Heh! They need one of those apps on the door of the drafting room that prevents them açess to the room if they are getting too silly.

Might need to. Just saw that currently Collingwood are trading Pick 2 this year for Picks 24 & 30 last year and a mid range fourth this year. I haven’t known a team in the futures trades business to consistently overrate their next years performance. Beyond staggering.

[Mofra]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Might need to. Just saw that currently Collingwood are trading Pick 2 this year for Picks 24 & 30 last year and a mid range fourth this year. I haven’t known a team in the futures trades business to consistently overrate their next years performance. Beyond staggering.

Yep. It's heartbreaking...

[Mofra]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Ironically, Treloar/Collingwood was the big failure with a future decent pick. They grabbed Howe, Aish & Treloar with Treloar being Pick 7 and a future first. I’m assuming they thought it would just happen. They didn’t do as you say, deliver, and it cost them another Pick 7.

As an aside, Treloar in 2015/2016 was Pick 7 x 2. Today he’s as an indication worth Pick 44 after shuffling (he’s still a gun) - That’s 3,288 Draft Points to Collingwood to acquire him to ‘today’ selling him for 362 Draft Points (that’s a 2,924 Draft Point Write down, worth Pick 1). They lost the bet in 2016 and I’d say they’re losing the bet we’d be mid ladder again (plus $1.5M). Someone needs to tell them that ‘if gambling isn’t fun, walk away’.

Let's not forget they put up two first for Beams and in between those two trades took Stephenson with a first round pick, then traded him to North for a second rounder.
They stand as an excellent example of how to destroy a Grand Final list.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Update, based on the current ‘Indicative Draft Order’:

Assumptions:

- Suns extra draft pick, Pick 19, pushing the nominal picks out in the second round onwards by 1.
- 3 Free Agent compo before end of Round 2, 4 before end of Round 3.
- 4 Father/Sons & NGA bids matched before end of Round 2, 6 before end of Round 3.
- 3 losses of Picks Between Round 2 & 3 for matching bids by other clubs.

Thus, the indicative cost for Treloar & Hannan both nominally and after possible shuffling are:

In the order before the draft & the actual pick after the draft has commenced:

Treloar. Pick 36. 7 x picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 43 for Treloar (disregarding the 2020 swaps)
Hannan. Pick 54. 7 x net picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 61 for Hannan

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Side Note:

We netted 526 Draft Points last year from Collingwood. So we take the actual picks last year and our second rounder as it stands today:

Pick 36 is 502 Points. Which means as of today we are NET POSITIVE, we got Treloar AND (equivalent points to) Pick 71.

... We are currently getting paid =Pick 71 and $1.5M to employ AT and let him kick goals on the run for us.

Mind blowing.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

This is pretty crazy and I can't help but think it's too good to be true. How could Collingwood possibly let this happen?

AT hasn't just been icing on our midfield cake. He has been a key reason for our success this year. Our midfield wouldn't be as dominant without him, especially considering the injury to Dunks.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

This is pretty crazy and I can't help but think it's too good to be true. How could Collingwood possibly let this happen?

AT hasn't just been icing on our midfield cake. He has been a key reason for our success this year. Our midfield wouldn't be as dominant without him, especially considering the injury to Dunks.

A few reasons salary cap. Plus they wanted the first rounder last year to give up lesser picks and then to get something this year to cover Daicos.

Two big problems they have is the over estimated their list, trading out possibly Pick 2 or 3 this year. They underestimated (I think) where we would finish. If we missed the top 8, they would’ve been pretty happy. They had a horror list management period and other clubs have benefitted, and Ned Guy is out. Even if we slipped a bit down the order it might be break even or marginal their way. It’s in deed excellent and true.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Update, based on the current ‘Indicative Draft Order’:

Assumptions:

- Suns extra draft pick, Pick 19, pushing the nominal picks out in the second round onwards by 1.
- 3 Free Agent compo before end of Round 2, 4 before end of Round 3.
- 4 Father/Sons & NGA bids matched before end of Round 2, 6 before end of Round 3.
- 3 losses of Picks Between Round 2 & 3 for matching bids by other clubs.

Thus, the indicative cost for Treloar & Hannan both nominally and after possible shuffling are:

In the order before the draft & the actual pick after the draft has commenced:

Treloar. Pick 37. 7 x picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 44 for Treloar (disregarding the 2020 swaps)
Hannan. Pick 55. 7 x net picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 62 for Hannan

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2021 Rolling Cost of Treloar & Hannan

Update, based on the current ‘Indicative Draft Order’:

Assumptions:

- Suns extra draft pick, Pick 19, pushing the nominal picks out in the second round onwards by 1.
- 3 Free Agent compo before end of Round 2, 4 before end of Round 3.
- 4 Father/Sons & NGA bids matched before end of Round 2, 6 before end of Round 3.
- 3 losses of Picks Between Round 2 & 3 for matching bids by other clubs.

Thus, the indicative cost for Treloar & Hannan both nominally and after possible shuffling are:

In the order before the draft & the actual pick after the draft has commenced:

Treloar. Pick 37. 7 x picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 44 for Treloar (disregarding the 2020 swaps)
Hannan. Pick 55. 7 x net picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 62 for Hannan

The costs have gone up since my last update:

Based on 5th or Losing a Semi Final

Treloar. Pick 33. 7 x picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 40 for Treloar (disregarding the 2020 swaps)
Hannan. Pick 51. 7 x net picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 58 for Hannan


Based on Losing a Elimination Final

Treloar. Pick 31. 7 x picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 38 for Treloar (disregarding the 2020 swaps)
Hannan. Pick 49. 7 x net picks for FA compo and F/S & NGA = Pick 56 for Hannan


Treloar still a steal. Hannan not so much.

We lose, and Collingwood do well Draft Points wise for Daicos and Melbourne get a bump in the Order too. Double whammy.