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So the nuts and bolts of my very initial thoughts:
Signatures Wanted:
Liberatore, Weightman, Duryea, Garcia, Scott, Butler, Sweet (Upgraded), Khamis (Upgraded), Gardner (Upgraded, apparently signed a two year deal apparently), Cordy (Depth), R. Smith (Depth).
Delistings (4):
(1) Jong (I wish he had a body that matched his attitude)
(2) Martin (35 next year. Missed 1/2 this year already)
(3) Hayes (R)
(4) Cavarra (R)
Trade/Free Agency:
Ed Richards - I really, really like him. That said, multiple clubs have publicly said they are after him notably North, Brisbane and others yet to be named. We have done well without him for the most part of this year. I'm not sure if that means he's surplus?? If he secures us a good player back, KPD or Ruck, I'm open to listening to the pitch.
Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.
Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. I always liked him as a medium forward as he's a great shot for goal, but that's not happening. If we can get an ok trade, again maybe that's best for both clubs. Hopefully an early Third Rounder, for math purposes Pick 42.
Lewis Young - Not going to get us a lot. But he seems on the outer and locking up a list spot doesn't help us and him signing on to play seasons in the VFL doesn't help him. Maybe a slight upgrade at most. Nothing factored into DPs (Draft Points).
Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):
Current Picks: 17 (1,025 DPs) & 72 (19 DPs)
Trade/FA Picks: 42 (395 DPs) & 54 (220 DPs)
Trade Pick 17 to Richmond for Pick 24 (785 DPs) & Pick 40 (429 DPs) - Net Extra 189 Draft Points (as an example)
Taken Into Draft: Picks 24, 40, 42 & 54
Total Draft Points: 1,829 Draft Points
Priority Access Players:
Father/Son:
Sam Darcy has been recently mentioned from Pick 2 to Pick 10. Let's say he goes Pick 5 for argument and math sake.
Pick 5 = 1,878 Draft Points - less - 20% DP Discount of 375 = 1,503 Draft Points Needed
Draft Point Surplus: 326 Draft Points. A pick around Pick 64 comes back to us (holding Picks 54 & 64). This 326 DPs buffer covers Sam Darcy going at nearly Pick 2 (only 184 DPs short) and some live trading covers that. That delivers Ugle-Hagan (Pick 1) and Darcy (as high as Pick 2) without deficit while playing finals in successive years. Cue the outrage!!!
Next Generation Academy:
Note the rule change this year. Bids at Picks 1-20 can't be matched. Bids at Picks 21-40 can be matched with a 197 DP Discount. Bids from Pick 41 can be matched by us with our 'next selection'. If no bids, can be Cat B Rookie Listed.
Cody Raak is the most likely. So lets lay out some options:
In the scenario above where left over DPs give us a pick, say Picks 54 & 64, even with a 197 point discount, we could match a bid at Pick 35 without deficit (if Darcy goes at Pick 5). But I'm guessing he comes into strong contention only passed the Pick 41 mark (unless his back half of the year is outstanding).
This opens up some really interesting live trading options to make sure if we are interested in him its for the cheapest price possible. We wait out to Pick 54 and if he's there and we use it elsewhere then the worst cost is Pick 64. If an offer comes in between Pick 40 & 54, as we have secured another 3rd Rounder this year (two in fact, Lippa & Wally) then we can live trade out this Pick 54 for a Third Rounder next year. Then matching this bid post Pick 40 with Pick 64, banking an extra third or fourth next year. Even at Pick 64 if there's no bids, Sam Power can 'pass' until getting the last draft selection as he did with Khamis. We then get Raak with our last spot if he's bid on, or it gets to the last pick and we use it on someone else and then Cat B Rookie List him and load up on talent. I don't think the financial concerns last year are still around to the same degree and we've seen a lot more of Cody since the 2020 ND.
Draft Spots & List Structure:
With 6 Spots Needed (outside of Trades): Sam Darcy, Picks 54 & 64 (Raak?), Khamis, Sweet & Gardner upgraded.
Out: 7: Jong, Hayes, Cavarra, Lipinski, Wallis, Young, Martin
The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). I'd like us to go back to how we've had it previously 38 Main & 4 Rookie.
That has the Main List: Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, Young, Martin, two spots back open (Seven - 7 vacancies)
That has the Rookie List: Roarke Smith, McNeil, two rookie draft selections, two less spots. Raak perhaps a Cat B.
So the bottom line to here:
Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak, Two live ND picks, Two live Rookie Draft picks. With the upgrades we would have 6 players incoming to the Main List into 7 vacancies. One spot free, at least, for incoming trades...
Trades:
So we have one vacancy for trade based on the above. I'm of the view to throw the kitchen sink at the trade period. We need a ruck, KPD and small forward if the right options are available.
- Ed Richards has interest and value.
- JJ might have some interest and value (and $600,000 owed next year).
- Schache might have some interest, but I doubt the value.
- 2022 First Rounder on the table for the right player.
- We pay some of the Collingwood money owed to AT, if it's a deal breaker on a Moore type. Reducing their ongoing cap pressure.
If one or two of these guys attract interest and in the end leave, then we've got the 2 or 3 spots open to accommodate trading multiple players into the list.
Of them, I least want Richards to go. I really like him as a player. But he hasn't signed yet and clubs are after him so to leave him out of a discussion on those facts would be silly. I'm confused by Bailey Smith this year. He's done more ads than played good games. He's not untouchable, but I'm not ready to use him as fishing bait.
The gun KPD and good ruckman are for me the main two. We can draft a live wire forward pocket and the rookie draft history says some of the very best are there. I fear Martin as a player hasn't worked, but the real golden value of his acquisition is showing Bevo and the MC (and Power by extension) that a good and fit ruckman makes the team overall a far more dangerous team. Hence, we need to get on the front foot this year. We have not traded out our Future First Rounder in our history, but now is the time if we can find the right player.
I get Bevo loves to keep hanging onto to decent people who aren't great footballers. But this is the year to work with Power to open up swath of spots to keep filling up with top end talent, hitting both the National Draft and Rookie Draft and really address the areas of key concern. Let some guys walk and aggressively pursue a KPD and Ruck with players and a Future First Rounder. History shows that Geelong, Sydney, Richmond and Hawthorn all took the next step by bringing in talent to address needs. We are doing admirable things without both a consistently playing Ruck and a second gun KPD like other clubs have. But the time is now and the window is open.
Like all things, a lot can change, and it will, this is very early to talk about a range of things: FS, NGA, Reviewing List Composition, Upgrades, Delistings, Draft Picks, Draft Points, Draft Strategy, Future Picks, Salary Cap, Player Types Needed, Trading In, Trading Out... All in the day of Sam Power.
Signatures Wanted:
Liberatore, Weightman, Duryea, Garcia, Scott, Butler, Sweet (Upgraded), Khamis (Upgraded), Gardner (Upgraded, apparently signed a two year deal apparently), Cordy (Depth), R. Smith (Depth).
Delistings (4):
(1) Jong (I wish he had a body that matched his attitude)
(2) Martin (35 next year. Missed 1/2 this year already)
(3) Hayes (R)
(4) Cavarra (R)
Trade/Free Agency:
Ed Richards - I really, really like him. That said, multiple clubs have publicly said they are after him notably North, Brisbane and others yet to be named. We have done well without him for the most part of this year. I'm not sure if that means he's surplus?? If he secures us a good player back, KPD or Ruck, I'm open to listening to the pitch.
Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.
Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. I always liked him as a medium forward as he's a great shot for goal, but that's not happening. If we can get an ok trade, again maybe that's best for both clubs. Hopefully an early Third Rounder, for math purposes Pick 42.
Lewis Young - Not going to get us a lot. But he seems on the outer and locking up a list spot doesn't help us and him signing on to play seasons in the VFL doesn't help him. Maybe a slight upgrade at most. Nothing factored into DPs (Draft Points).
Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):
Current Picks: 17 (1,025 DPs) & 72 (19 DPs)
Trade/FA Picks: 42 (395 DPs) & 54 (220 DPs)
Trade Pick 17 to Richmond for Pick 24 (785 DPs) & Pick 40 (429 DPs) - Net Extra 189 Draft Points (as an example)
Taken Into Draft: Picks 24, 40, 42 & 54
Total Draft Points: 1,829 Draft Points
Priority Access Players:
Father/Son:
Sam Darcy has been recently mentioned from Pick 2 to Pick 10. Let's say he goes Pick 5 for argument and math sake.
Pick 5 = 1,878 Draft Points - less - 20% DP Discount of 375 = 1,503 Draft Points Needed
Draft Point Surplus: 326 Draft Points. A pick around Pick 64 comes back to us (holding Picks 54 & 64). This 326 DPs buffer covers Sam Darcy going at nearly Pick 2 (only 184 DPs short) and some live trading covers that. That delivers Ugle-Hagan (Pick 1) and Darcy (as high as Pick 2) without deficit while playing finals in successive years. Cue the outrage!!!
Next Generation Academy:
Note the rule change this year. Bids at Picks 1-20 can't be matched. Bids at Picks 21-40 can be matched with a 197 DP Discount. Bids from Pick 41 can be matched by us with our 'next selection'. If no bids, can be Cat B Rookie Listed.
Cody Raak is the most likely. So lets lay out some options:
In the scenario above where left over DPs give us a pick, say Picks 54 & 64, even with a 197 point discount, we could match a bid at Pick 35 without deficit (if Darcy goes at Pick 5). But I'm guessing he comes into strong contention only passed the Pick 41 mark (unless his back half of the year is outstanding).
This opens up some really interesting live trading options to make sure if we are interested in him its for the cheapest price possible. We wait out to Pick 54 and if he's there and we use it elsewhere then the worst cost is Pick 64. If an offer comes in between Pick 40 & 54, as we have secured another 3rd Rounder this year (two in fact, Lippa & Wally) then we can live trade out this Pick 54 for a Third Rounder next year. Then matching this bid post Pick 40 with Pick 64, banking an extra third or fourth next year. Even at Pick 64 if there's no bids, Sam Power can 'pass' until getting the last draft selection as he did with Khamis. We then get Raak with our last spot if he's bid on, or it gets to the last pick and we use it on someone else and then Cat B Rookie List him and load up on talent. I don't think the financial concerns last year are still around to the same degree and we've seen a lot more of Cody since the 2020 ND.
Draft Spots & List Structure:
With 6 Spots Needed (outside of Trades): Sam Darcy, Picks 54 & 64 (Raak?), Khamis, Sweet & Gardner upgraded.
Out: 7: Jong, Hayes, Cavarra, Lipinski, Wallis, Young, Martin
The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). I'd like us to go back to how we've had it previously 38 Main & 4 Rookie.
That has the Main List: Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, Young, Martin, two spots back open (Seven - 7 vacancies)
That has the Rookie List: Roarke Smith, McNeil, two rookie draft selections, two less spots. Raak perhaps a Cat B.
So the bottom line to here:
Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak, Two live ND picks, Two live Rookie Draft picks. With the upgrades we would have 6 players incoming to the Main List into 7 vacancies. One spot free, at least, for incoming trades...
Trades:
So we have one vacancy for trade based on the above. I'm of the view to throw the kitchen sink at the trade period. We need a ruck, KPD and small forward if the right options are available.
- Ed Richards has interest and value.
- JJ might have some interest and value (and $600,000 owed next year).
- Schache might have some interest, but I doubt the value.
- 2022 First Rounder on the table for the right player.
- We pay some of the Collingwood money owed to AT, if it's a deal breaker on a Moore type. Reducing their ongoing cap pressure.
If one or two of these guys attract interest and in the end leave, then we've got the 2 or 3 spots open to accommodate trading multiple players into the list.
Of them, I least want Richards to go. I really like him as a player. But he hasn't signed yet and clubs are after him so to leave him out of a discussion on those facts would be silly. I'm confused by Bailey Smith this year. He's done more ads than played good games. He's not untouchable, but I'm not ready to use him as fishing bait.
The gun KPD and good ruckman are for me the main two. We can draft a live wire forward pocket and the rookie draft history says some of the very best are there. I fear Martin as a player hasn't worked, but the real golden value of his acquisition is showing Bevo and the MC (and Power by extension) that a good and fit ruckman makes the team overall a far more dangerous team. Hence, we need to get on the front foot this year. We have not traded out our Future First Rounder in our history, but now is the time if we can find the right player.
I get Bevo loves to keep hanging onto to decent people who aren't great footballers. But this is the year to work with Power to open up swath of spots to keep filling up with top end talent, hitting both the National Draft and Rookie Draft and really address the areas of key concern. Let some guys walk and aggressively pursue a KPD and Ruck with players and a Future First Rounder. History shows that Geelong, Sydney, Richmond and Hawthorn all took the next step by bringing in talent to address needs. We are doing admirable things without both a consistently playing Ruck and a second gun KPD like other clubs have. But the time is now and the window is open.
Like all things, a lot can change, and it will, this is very early to talk about a range of things: FS, NGA, Reviewing List Composition, Upgrades, Delistings, Draft Picks, Draft Points, Draft Strategy, Future Picks, Salary Cap, Player Types Needed, Trading In, Trading Out... All in the day of Sam Power.
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