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So the first draft thread generated some good discussion and different ideas/strategies about how to deal with things over the next couple of months. Many things have changed which significantly change my first draft. Including:
- Sam Darcy kicking 6.3 in three quarters in Vic Metro trial match. Some are now suggesting he's around the Pick 1 mark. Bevo on 3AW didn't hose it down and essentially tried to warn others not to bid because we ARE taking him.
- Bevo has laid out that 3 KPD's is the model going ahead. It makes sense as no doubt the trend of all clubs if they can to take in 3 KPF's. This impacts list decisions about personnel.
- Schache might have only played one quarter in defence on the weekend in the VFL, but he looked good and I think it's something we need to look at as he has a contract for next year and bugger all trade value.
- We are appreciating more than ever the impact a good mature ruckman in our team does to take everything a little better.
Signatures Wanted:
Liberatore, Weightman, Duryea, Garcia, Young, Scott, Butler, Sweet (Upgraded), Khamis (Upgraded), Cordy, R. Smith.
Delistings (4):
(1) Jong (I wish he had a body that matched his attitude. Captain of Footscray please)
(2) Martin (35 next year. Missed over 1/2 this year already. Would be an excellent P/T ruck coach in 2022)
(3) Hayes (R)
(4) Cavarra (R)
Trade/Free Agency:
Ed Richards - I really, really like him. Multiple clubs are after him, but I'm hoping he stays.
I need 3 of these 4 (per analysis below):
Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.
Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. We will need to trade some out. Hopefully an early Third Rounder.
Hayden Crozier - With the new long term defensive structure with three KPD's, he's competing against Williams, Dale, Daniel, Richards, Duryea and Wood. Plus Butler and Khamis. I don't think he's best 22 right now and under this new structure I don't see him breaking into the team. So we can afford to lose him and he has some currency, not huge, but maybe enough as I will get to. If it demonstrates to Richards we think he's a best 22 defender to keep him, two birds one stone. gain, hopefully a Third Rounder.
Jason Johanissen - A little hit and miss this year as a forward. His good looks great, his average looks poor. He's on $600,000 next year. He's competing with Weightman, VDM, McNeil, Scott, Garcia and co. I think he's in the situation Josh Bruce was in at St Kilda. He should ask about whether we are going to offer a good contract next year, and if answer is 'no JJ, please feel free to look around' that's what he should do. The money he's on is not commensurate to his output. If he was prepared to restructure his salary and take a significant pay cut, that is worth talking through, but I think other clubs desperate for 'winning trade week' might be prepared to offer something a bit of OK to get a deal done.
Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):
Current Picks: 18 (985 DP's) & 73 (9 DP's)
Draft Points Needed for Sam Darcy at Pick 1 (Which we need to plan on. Plan for the worst, hope for the best
3,000 Draft Points, less 600 Discount = 2,400 Draft Points
Strategy:
I'm now thinking of trading out this year's First Rounder. For a mature Ruckman. I don't know what Pick 18 buys, but to make the discussion flow easier I will pick a name out of the blue: Nankervis.
We address the obvious need with someone who will be with us for the window and shoulder the burden as English and Darcy continue learn and develop and then dominate.
As above, I'm addressing the KPD area with seeing if Josh Schache if he can turn into the third KPD on the Third String forward. So that's how I'm looking to address the Ruck & KPD with mature AFL players.
Consequence
We need 2,400 Draft Points, and Pick 73 is 9 DP's. So that 2,391 DP's short.
The maximum allowable Draft Point Deficit is 1,723 DP's.
So we need to find 686 Draft Points (or more) this year for the AFL to allow us to carry the Maximum Deficit. That's equivalent to just Picks 44 and 45 from Lipinski, Wallis, JJ and/or Crozier. Which is very achievable obviously, so much so we could get away with just two trades from this list of 4 players.
The good news: Nankervis (or similar), Schache as a KPD (having impressed) and Sam Darcy are all secured.
The bad news: Our 2022 Draft is stuffed and if we wanted Cody Raak, he'd need to get passed Pick 41, and Pick 56 for MacPherson. If we want Raak and he did get bid on after Pick 41, we could get him for Pick 91 owing to the new NGA bidding rules. Or Cat B Rookie if there's no bids which is unlikely. If we wanted MacPherson, him getting to Pick 56 would also use next pick. So if we like them and they slide to these targets we can grab them for nothing irrespective of later bids. They could also slip to the rookie draft perhaps.
Mitigation: We don't look at trades as much, we look to Free Agency with the salary cap space we have spare to bring in mature talent (2022: Darcy Moore, Tom Barass, Dan McStay headline it). We would look at trading back into the draft next year. With a potential Father/Son in Croft next year somewhere around, that would be required just for that which is allowed. The deficit is applied to our held picks based on our ladder finish in 2022, before traded picks, so that allows us to get back in if that's what we want to do or if a player requests a trade out.
What Happens To The Deficit If Sam Darcy Slides:
Indicative:
Pick 2: 2,014 Draft Points (+386 DP’s Better Off) - Deficit of 1st & 2nd Rounders, but get back 3rd, 4th & extra 4th Rounders
Pick 3: 1,787 Draft Points (+613 DP’s Better Of) - Deficit of 1st & 2nd Rounders, but get back high 3rd, 3rd & 4th Rounders
Pick 4: 1,627 Draft Points (+773 DP’s Better Off) - Deficit of 1st Rounder, but get back 2nd, 3rd, 4th & extra Fourth Rounders
Big difference from no picks from Rounds 1-4. Plan for the worst, hope for the best is my motto. If we show the other clubs that we can match a bid at Pick 1 or later, hopefully they allow Darcy to slide just a little bit. That dramatically reduces the Draft Points Deficit. But we've got the worst case scenario covered (Pick 1) and hoping for a small slide to happen to get back multiple mid range picks in 2022 with a reduced deficit.
Draft Spots & List Structure:
With 7 Spots Needed:
(3) Sam Darcy, Picks 91 & 109 (Raak &/or MacPherson or rookie listed)
(3) Khamis, Sweet & Gardner upgraded
(1) Nankervis (or other ruck)
Out: 7: Jong, Hayes, Cavarra, Lipinski, Wallis, Crozier, Martin
The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). I'd like us to go back to how we've had it previously 38 Main & 4 Rookie.
That has the Main List: Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, Crozier, Martin, two spots back open (Seven - 7 vacancies)
That has the Rookie List: Roarke Smith, McNeil (ext. but still here I believe), two rookie draft selections, two less spots. Raak perhaps a Cat B Rookie would be dream stuff, although highly unlikely.
So the bottom line to here:
Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak & MacPherson only if they go late, Two late live National Draft picks (one may or may not be Raak or MacPherson), Two live Rookie Draft picks (MacPherson is Cat A & Raak is Cat B if no National Draft bids)
Rationale For My Change:
Sam Darcy going Pick 1 and getting him is the best case scenario. But from paying for him, it's the worst case scenario. But I think we can make an aggressive move into our window (Nankervis or similar) while taking Sam Darcy and possibly getting Raak and looking for a small forward late in the draft of rookie draft.
I've tried t look at moving players that have question marks. Jong & Martin's bodies at least this year aren't reliable and we can't keep holding good people. As they get older, the injuries are more likely, not less likely. Also, Hayes & Cavarra don't look like it this year and we've been good to them but we need prune to allow new growth. Then there's three of Lipinski, JJ, Crozier or Wallis. No one willingly wants them gone, but we can cover their loss. So i don't feel we are giving up too much while being able to hopefully address the ruck, KPD and small forward via the draft. It's also not a radical turnover of the list as three incoming to the Main List are coming from the Rookie List, plus Darcy has trained at the club and Raak & MacPherson are around the VFL team and trained last summer. Depending on the trade values, we could get it down to only two of JJ, Crozier, Wallis & Lippa - keeping more of the list together and bringing it down to two live ND picks plus upgrades.
I don't like the idea of having potentially no picks inside the first Four Rounds of the 2022 National Draft. But if we look to trade back in, or look to cancel out late picks by using rookie upgrade/s if McNeil is deemed worthy then and looking to Free Agency to bring in talent. But that uncomfortability is born of JUH as Pick 1, Darcy at Pick 1, Treloar, Hannan, Nankervis (or similar). The rules are designed to make teams pay a heavy cost in the situation we've found ourselves in. It's a matter of where we have to pay that heavy cost. Short of trading a gun player to recruit a gun player at Pick 1, my preference or at least current thinking is to roll that heavy cost into next year and look to balance things out somewhat with trading in picks and matching a potential matched bid on Croft if he gets to the grade. If we can trade for a player in need this year, and look to Free Agency beyond that and with our elite late drafting, and grab Sam Darcy it's probably the least hurt. Last year the AFEL let rules slide and we didn't feel the hurt with Jamarra. But with the rules to be enforced again, it's a bad time to have a Pick 1 kid, currently just Pick 18 and no Second or Third Rounders.
I think this is all going to go in a million directions this year for all of us, let alone Sam Power and his team. Week to week it's going to be really dynamic about which option/s to pursue to get the hurt down to as little as possible. The good news is, after that's all done and the band aids ripped off, we've got our hands on another elite player and first club consecutive dynasty (David, Luke & Sam).
Is this the best way to manage the hurt of the rules?
Like all things, a lot can change, and it will, this is very early to talk about a range of things: FS, NGA, Reviewing List Composition, Upgrades, Delistings, Draft Picks, Draft Points, Draft Strategy, Future Picks, Salary Cap, Player Types Needed, Trading In, Trading Out.
- Sam Darcy kicking 6.3 in three quarters in Vic Metro trial match. Some are now suggesting he's around the Pick 1 mark. Bevo on 3AW didn't hose it down and essentially tried to warn others not to bid because we ARE taking him.
- Bevo has laid out that 3 KPD's is the model going ahead. It makes sense as no doubt the trend of all clubs if they can to take in 3 KPF's. This impacts list decisions about personnel.
- Schache might have only played one quarter in defence on the weekend in the VFL, but he looked good and I think it's something we need to look at as he has a contract for next year and bugger all trade value.
- We are appreciating more than ever the impact a good mature ruckman in our team does to take everything a little better.
Signatures Wanted:
Liberatore, Weightman, Duryea, Garcia, Young, Scott, Butler, Sweet (Upgraded), Khamis (Upgraded), Cordy, R. Smith.
Delistings (4):
(1) Jong (I wish he had a body that matched his attitude. Captain of Footscray please)
(2) Martin (35 next year. Missed over 1/2 this year already. Would be an excellent P/T ruck coach in 2022)
(3) Hayes (R)
(4) Cavarra (R)
Trade/Free Agency:
Ed Richards - I really, really like him. Multiple clubs are after him, but I'm hoping he stays.
I need 3 of these 4 (per analysis below):
Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.
Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. We will need to trade some out. Hopefully an early Third Rounder.
Hayden Crozier - With the new long term defensive structure with three KPD's, he's competing against Williams, Dale, Daniel, Richards, Duryea and Wood. Plus Butler and Khamis. I don't think he's best 22 right now and under this new structure I don't see him breaking into the team. So we can afford to lose him and he has some currency, not huge, but maybe enough as I will get to. If it demonstrates to Richards we think he's a best 22 defender to keep him, two birds one stone. gain, hopefully a Third Rounder.
Jason Johanissen - A little hit and miss this year as a forward. His good looks great, his average looks poor. He's on $600,000 next year. He's competing with Weightman, VDM, McNeil, Scott, Garcia and co. I think he's in the situation Josh Bruce was in at St Kilda. He should ask about whether we are going to offer a good contract next year, and if answer is 'no JJ, please feel free to look around' that's what he should do. The money he's on is not commensurate to his output. If he was prepared to restructure his salary and take a significant pay cut, that is worth talking through, but I think other clubs desperate for 'winning trade week' might be prepared to offer something a bit of OK to get a deal done.
Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):
Current Picks: 18 (985 DP's) & 73 (9 DP's)
Draft Points Needed for Sam Darcy at Pick 1 (Which we need to plan on. Plan for the worst, hope for the best
3,000 Draft Points, less 600 Discount = 2,400 Draft Points
Strategy:
I'm now thinking of trading out this year's First Rounder. For a mature Ruckman. I don't know what Pick 18 buys, but to make the discussion flow easier I will pick a name out of the blue: Nankervis.
We address the obvious need with someone who will be with us for the window and shoulder the burden as English and Darcy continue learn and develop and then dominate.
As above, I'm addressing the KPD area with seeing if Josh Schache if he can turn into the third KPD on the Third String forward. So that's how I'm looking to address the Ruck & KPD with mature AFL players.
Consequence
We need 2,400 Draft Points, and Pick 73 is 9 DP's. So that 2,391 DP's short.
The maximum allowable Draft Point Deficit is 1,723 DP's.
So we need to find 686 Draft Points (or more) this year for the AFL to allow us to carry the Maximum Deficit. That's equivalent to just Picks 44 and 45 from Lipinski, Wallis, JJ and/or Crozier. Which is very achievable obviously, so much so we could get away with just two trades from this list of 4 players.
The good news: Nankervis (or similar), Schache as a KPD (having impressed) and Sam Darcy are all secured.
The bad news: Our 2022 Draft is stuffed and if we wanted Cody Raak, he'd need to get passed Pick 41, and Pick 56 for MacPherson. If we want Raak and he did get bid on after Pick 41, we could get him for Pick 91 owing to the new NGA bidding rules. Or Cat B Rookie if there's no bids which is unlikely. If we wanted MacPherson, him getting to Pick 56 would also use next pick. So if we like them and they slide to these targets we can grab them for nothing irrespective of later bids. They could also slip to the rookie draft perhaps.
Mitigation: We don't look at trades as much, we look to Free Agency with the salary cap space we have spare to bring in mature talent (2022: Darcy Moore, Tom Barass, Dan McStay headline it). We would look at trading back into the draft next year. With a potential Father/Son in Croft next year somewhere around, that would be required just for that which is allowed. The deficit is applied to our held picks based on our ladder finish in 2022, before traded picks, so that allows us to get back in if that's what we want to do or if a player requests a trade out.
What Happens To The Deficit If Sam Darcy Slides:
Indicative:
Pick 2: 2,014 Draft Points (+386 DP’s Better Off) - Deficit of 1st & 2nd Rounders, but get back 3rd, 4th & extra 4th Rounders
Pick 3: 1,787 Draft Points (+613 DP’s Better Of) - Deficit of 1st & 2nd Rounders, but get back high 3rd, 3rd & 4th Rounders
Pick 4: 1,627 Draft Points (+773 DP’s Better Off) - Deficit of 1st Rounder, but get back 2nd, 3rd, 4th & extra Fourth Rounders
Big difference from no picks from Rounds 1-4. Plan for the worst, hope for the best is my motto. If we show the other clubs that we can match a bid at Pick 1 or later, hopefully they allow Darcy to slide just a little bit. That dramatically reduces the Draft Points Deficit. But we've got the worst case scenario covered (Pick 1) and hoping for a small slide to happen to get back multiple mid range picks in 2022 with a reduced deficit.
Draft Spots & List Structure:
With 7 Spots Needed:
(3) Sam Darcy, Picks 91 & 109 (Raak &/or MacPherson or rookie listed)
(3) Khamis, Sweet & Gardner upgraded
(1) Nankervis (or other ruck)
Out: 7: Jong, Hayes, Cavarra, Lipinski, Wallis, Crozier, Martin
The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). I'd like us to go back to how we've had it previously 38 Main & 4 Rookie.
That has the Main List: Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, Crozier, Martin, two spots back open (Seven - 7 vacancies)
That has the Rookie List: Roarke Smith, McNeil (ext. but still here I believe), two rookie draft selections, two less spots. Raak perhaps a Cat B Rookie would be dream stuff, although highly unlikely.
So the bottom line to here:
Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak & MacPherson only if they go late, Two late live National Draft picks (one may or may not be Raak or MacPherson), Two live Rookie Draft picks (MacPherson is Cat A & Raak is Cat B if no National Draft bids)
Rationale For My Change:
Sam Darcy going Pick 1 and getting him is the best case scenario. But from paying for him, it's the worst case scenario. But I think we can make an aggressive move into our window (Nankervis or similar) while taking Sam Darcy and possibly getting Raak and looking for a small forward late in the draft of rookie draft.
I've tried t look at moving players that have question marks. Jong & Martin's bodies at least this year aren't reliable and we can't keep holding good people. As they get older, the injuries are more likely, not less likely. Also, Hayes & Cavarra don't look like it this year and we've been good to them but we need prune to allow new growth. Then there's three of Lipinski, JJ, Crozier or Wallis. No one willingly wants them gone, but we can cover their loss. So i don't feel we are giving up too much while being able to hopefully address the ruck, KPD and small forward via the draft. It's also not a radical turnover of the list as three incoming to the Main List are coming from the Rookie List, plus Darcy has trained at the club and Raak & MacPherson are around the VFL team and trained last summer. Depending on the trade values, we could get it down to only two of JJ, Crozier, Wallis & Lippa - keeping more of the list together and bringing it down to two live ND picks plus upgrades.
I don't like the idea of having potentially no picks inside the first Four Rounds of the 2022 National Draft. But if we look to trade back in, or look to cancel out late picks by using rookie upgrade/s if McNeil is deemed worthy then and looking to Free Agency to bring in talent. But that uncomfortability is born of JUH as Pick 1, Darcy at Pick 1, Treloar, Hannan, Nankervis (or similar). The rules are designed to make teams pay a heavy cost in the situation we've found ourselves in. It's a matter of where we have to pay that heavy cost. Short of trading a gun player to recruit a gun player at Pick 1, my preference or at least current thinking is to roll that heavy cost into next year and look to balance things out somewhat with trading in picks and matching a potential matched bid on Croft if he gets to the grade. If we can trade for a player in need this year, and look to Free Agency beyond that and with our elite late drafting, and grab Sam Darcy it's probably the least hurt. Last year the AFEL let rules slide and we didn't feel the hurt with Jamarra. But with the rules to be enforced again, it's a bad time to have a Pick 1 kid, currently just Pick 18 and no Second or Third Rounders.
I think this is all going to go in a million directions this year for all of us, let alone Sam Power and his team. Week to week it's going to be really dynamic about which option/s to pursue to get the hurt down to as little as possible. The good news is, after that's all done and the band aids ripped off, we've got our hands on another elite player and first club consecutive dynasty (David, Luke & Sam).
Is this the best way to manage the hurt of the rules?
Like all things, a lot can change, and it will, this is very early to talk about a range of things: FS, NGA, Reviewing List Composition, Upgrades, Delistings, Draft Picks, Draft Points, Draft Strategy, Future Picks, Salary Cap, Player Types Needed, Trading In, Trading Out.
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