BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

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  • bulldogtragic
    The List Manager
    • Jan 2007
    • 34316

    BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

    So the first few draft threads generated some good discussion and different ideas/strategies about how to deal with things over the next couple of months. Many things have changed which significantly change my first draft. Including:

    - Sam Darcy kicking 6.3 in three quarters in Vic Metro trial match. Most are now suggesting he's around the Pick 3 mark.

    - Bevo has laid out that 3 KPD's is the model going ahead. It makes sense as no doubt the trend of all clubs if they can to take in 3 KPF's. This impacts list decisions about personnel.

    - Schache has played 3 games as a KPD. He's gone from a tradable depth forward to a genuine 2022 #3 KPD option.

    - Martin is as good as officially done. Lin Jong has retired. Many have re-signed.

    - Josh Bruce is out for most or all of next year.

    - New rules for List Management.



    Signatures Wanted:

    Duryea, Sweet (New 4th Year Rookie), Khamis (New 4th Year Rookie), Cordy (to Rookie List), R. Smith (staying on Rookie List).


    Retirements & Delistings (4):

    (1) Jong (Retired)
    (2) Martin (35 next year. Just 6.5 games for the H&A Season)
    (3) Hayes (R)
    (4) Cavarra (R)


    Trade/Free Agency:

    Ed Richards - I really, really like him. I hope he stays, but as he's unsigned he needs to be considered until he does sign.

    I need 3 of these 4 (per analysis below):

    Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.

    Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. We will need to trade some out. Hopefully an early Third Rounder.

    Lewis Young - I like him, but the MC doesn't to the same degree. He doesn't have much value, so whatever we can get.

    Jason Johanissen - Very much hit and miss this year as a forward. His good looks great, his average looks very poor. He's on $600,000 next year. He's competing with Weightman, VDM, McNeil, Scott, Garcia and co. I think he's in the situation Josh Bruce was in at St Kilda. He should ask about whether we are going to offer a good contract next year, and if answer is 'no JJ, please feel free to look around' that's what he should do. The money he's on is not commensurate to his output. I think we need to get an insurance policy for Bruce next season, and we need some salary cap.


    Salary Cap Savings: Circa $1.5M - Plus savings from Martin & Jong


    Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):

    Current Picks: 17 (1,025 DP's) & 72 (19 DP's)


    Draft Points Needed for Sam Darcy at Pick 3:

    2,234 Draft Points, less 447 Discount = 1,787 Draft Points


    Strategy:

    I'm now thinking of ALL OUT AGGRESSION with trading out this year. Trading out 2021 First Rounder, 2022 First Rounder & Richards if he wants to leave.

    Target 1: Mature Ruckman. I don't know what Pick 18 buys, but to make the discussion flow easier I will pick a name, Peter Ladhams. That might see some points flow back too.

    Target 2: Gun Defender. Future First Rounder & Richards (or Pick secured from Richards).

    Target 3: Insurance Policy for Josh Bruce in 2022. Delisted Free Agent Tom Lynch. 193cm, 88Kg, 161 Games, Kicked 30+ in a season on four occasions. One year deal, minimal money.

    As above, the KPD area in bulked up with the defender above and Josh Schache (after a full preseason) as our #3 KPD on the Third String forward. Schache to also be the Second Ruck. So that's how I'm looking to address the Ruck, KPFs & KPD with mature AFL players. The salary cap savings from the outgoing players cover the incoming players.


    Consequence:

    We need 1,787 Draft Points. Assume zero Draft Points until we factor in the Player Trades.

    The maximum allowable Draft Point Deficit after trading out a First Rounder is 741 DP's.

    So we need to find 1,046 Draft Points (or more) this year for the AFL to allow us to carry the Maximum Deficit. That is more than met with the conservative trades for Lipinski, Wallis (compo) & JJ. Points trades & Young gets in enough to match at Pick 2. I now don’t see him going at Pick 1.


    List Here:

    Out: Jong, Martin, JJ, Wallis, Young, Lipinski, Cordy** (7) -- Cavarra, Hayes (2)
    In: Ruck, KPD, Lynch, Darcy, two-three live picks (poss. SSP) (7) -- Cordy, Live Pick (2)

    ** The new draft rules allow us to move player/s from the Main List to the Rookie List between The National Draft & Rookie Draft. I'd move Cordy down here and he's mature insurance for injuries.

    ** The new Fourth Year Rookie rule allows us to hold back elevations for Gardner, Khamis &/or Sweet for another year. With limited selections in 2022, we can make our minimum selections with these guys being elevated.


    The good news: Ladhams (or similar), Lynch (insurance), Traded Key Defender, Schache as a KPD (having impressed) and Sam Darcy are all secured.

    The bad news: Our 2021 & 2022 Draft is limited. If we wanted Cody Raak, he'd need to get passed Pick 41, and Pick 56 for MacPherson if we wanted him. If we wanted Raak and if he did get bid on after Pick 41, we could get him for Pick 91 owing to the new NGA bidding rules. Or Cat B Rookie if there's no bids which is unlikely. If we wanted MacPherson, him getting to Pick 56 would also use next pick. So if we like them and they slide to these targets we can grab them for nothing irrespective of later bids. They could also slip to the rookie draft perhaps.

    Mitigation: In 2022 we have the ability to look at Croft Jr, we also have the ability to elevate rookies as our minimum picks. There's probably just the Fourth Rounder at this point. But it's reasonable to assume some players around the fringe might seek more opportunities elsewhere, and that gets us back in the 2022 National Draft.


    What Happens To The Deficit If Sam Darcy Slides:

    Pick 4: 1,627 Draft Points (+ 160 DP’s Better Off) - That gives us an extra better Fourth Rounder.

    Pick 5: 1,502 Draft Points (+ 285 DP's Better Off) - That gets us a Third Rounder with the likely Fourth we still have.

    The more Darcy slips, the better our Draft Hand is for 2022.


    List Structure:

    The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). Before last year we have been traditionally structured to 38 Main & 4 Rookie. There's not much need to change it, unless we really wanted to elevate say Gardner. In that case we eliminate his Rookie List Spot, and Open up a Main List Spot for him. Base Rookie List payments aren't included in the TPP/Salary Cap. So there's loyalty type side to a player, but also the TPP.

    That has the Main List (7): Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, JJ, Martin, Young, Cordy.

    The Trades/Free Agents (3): Ruck, KPD, Insurance KPF
    The Draft Hand (4): Sam Darcy, Two or Three Live Selections (Or One vacancy held over)

    That has the Rookie List Cat A (7): Roarke Smith, McNeil (ext. but still here I believe), Gardner, Sweet, Cordy. Live Pick.
    The has the Rookie List Cat B (1): Khamis. Raak here is not bid on and we want him.

    Total Player Payments: Saved $1.8-$2M all outs. New players and draftees, circa $1.8-$2M all ins. The room we still have above and beyond is left to re-sign players.


    So the bottom line to here:

    2021: Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak & MacPherson only if they go late, Two or Three late live National Draft picks (one may or may not be Raak or MacPherson), Two live Rookie Draft picks (MacPherson is Cat A & Raak is Cat B if no National Draft bids)

    2022: Late picks only right now. Likely fringe trades out. Croft Jr on the potential horizon. Upgrades to make up minimum selection rules.


    Rationale For My Thinking:

    I'm now firmly in aggressive trade mindset. More kids right now does little for our window. Neither does our main FF going out of the game for 12 months. We can secure Darcy in the top 5, AND, trade 2021 and 2022 First Rounders. The deficit rules permit an aggressive strategy like this. As do the bid match matching rules. We are using under this scenario a 5 to 6 mid range picks across 2021 & 2022 to pay for Sam Darcy. Clubs 'trade down' to get more Draft Points and use a cache of mid range picks to secure top end talent every year. This is doing it in back to back years. While holding onto two First Rounders to trade (&/or Richards if he requests out).

    Another way of looking at it is this: Trading the two First Rounds and Future Second & Third Rounder on Draft Points is akin to the Tim Kelly trade of a First Rounder, Future First Rounder, Second Rounder & Third Rounder. For this West Coast got one player, Tim Kelly. In the nearly exact same scenario above, we secure a Ruck worth a First Rounder, a KPD with a First Rounder and enough Draft Points from a Future Second & Third to secure the best KPP in the draft, Sam Darcy. It’s a ballsy strategy, but it could pay significantly better dividends then the Tim Kelly trade. So this kind of strategy is not beyond the realms of recent AFL Trading history.

    The obvious benefit is bringing in talent to make the most of our window. The draw back is having (outside of Darcy) only late selections. However, there are priority access players who've played at Footscray this year (Raak & MacPherson) and next year with Croft Jr. So there is some mitigation to grab player a bit ahead of 'market value'.

    I think being conservative this year is the wrong time for it. It's also not about 'winning trade week', but if the players i've suggested should be traded go, we have a LOT of salary cap to go with two First Rounders. If we can't find the right players, then that's that. But if we can, great!

    I think this is still all going to go in a million directions this year for all of us, let alone Power and his team. Week to week it's going to be really dynamic about which option/s to pursue to get the hurt down to as little as possible. The good news is, after that's all done and the band aids ripped off, we've got our hands on another elite player and first club consecutive dynasty (David, Luke & Sam).

    Edit: Notes

    1. Bidding/Matching Rules - all complied with
    2. Future Trading of Picks Rules - all complied with
    3. Rolling 2 in 4 First Round Usage/Trade Rules complied with (Matched Bids on Marra & Darcy count as First Rounders used)
    4. Deficit Rules & Limits - all complied with
    5. New Draft & List Management Rules - all complied with


    Edit: 2019 Deficits From Other Clubs:

    In 2019 three clubs went into deficit to draft high and trade too:

    Port did it on Jackson Mead (F/S) just after taking Georgiades
    Freo did it to get Serong, Young & Henry (NGA) all Top 10
    GWS did it to get Ash & Green (Academy) in the Top 10

    It’s aggressive with just late picks. But get it right and it works really well.
    Last edited by bulldogtragic; 11-08-2021, 01:59 PM.
    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023
  • Mofra
    Hall of Fame
    • Dec 2006
    • 14889

    #2
    Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

    Leinert from Port. Basically a 195cm Cordy who can defend, not quite the same aggression.
    Max Lynch is my ideal ruck target. More than Ladhams. His runnign capacity sets him apart so he's the type I think we'd like in our system.
    I really want to keep Ed Richards. Given he's played every game he's fit for I suspect the club see him that way too.
    I don't think JJ walks, group dynamic.

    Lippi and Young are out, I don't think anyone else attracts any picks worth points.
    Tom Lynch as a DFA for one year seems a no brainer. Marra will get nursed through the next year and Naughton can play closer to goal.
    Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

    Comment

    • Scraggers
      Premiership Moderator
      • Jun 2008
      • 3564

      #3
      Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

      Jeremy McGovern is on $1M a year at West Coast. Some people I talk to over here have intimated he might be available for the right offer where WCE would continue to pay part of his salary. What do you think? Two Year deal at $550K? Would that entice you? As long as we don't have to pay the devil and sell our soul??

      Comment

      • EasternWest
        Bulldog Team of the Century
        • Aug 2009
        • 9999

        #4
        Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

        Originally posted by Scraggers
        Jeremy McGovern is on $1M a year at West Coast. Some people I talk to over here have intimated he might be available for the right offer where WCE would continue to pay part of his salary. What do you think? Two Year deal at $550K? Would that entice you? As long as we don't have to pay the devil and sell our soul??
        On reputation definitely but I have to admit I haven't watched him close enough to know if that's a good idea.

        Do we know anyone in Perth who might have a finger on the pulse?
        "It's over. It's all over."

        Comment

        • bulldogtragic
          The List Manager
          • Jan 2007
          • 34316

          #5
          Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

          Originally posted by Scraggers
          Jeremy McGovern is on $1M a year at West Coast. Some people I talk to over here have intimated he might be available for the right offer where WCE would continue to pay part of his salary. What do you think? Two Year deal at $550K? Would that entice you? As long as we don't have to pay the devil and sell our soul??
          The Herald Sun reported he’s on $1.2-$1.25M for the next two years. So that’s the first thing I think of.

          Barass is a Free Agent next year, and being younger, would be a bigger priority. If they want to rebuild quicker, McGovern might help them.

          Feels like the Brian Lake Trade. I think McGovern night have three years in him, whilst in our window. If they covered about half his salary, then it’s interesting if we tell JJ he’s playing VFL next year with any commitment beyond that. If JJ took a better deal elsewhere, then his $600,000 salary moves to McGovern. That’s a big win on paper.

          Now the harder part, trade value. They probably want more than a first rounder with that level of salary covered. They might ask for more gettable WA players like Garcia. I’m not that interested. JJ was originally from Perth, but would they want him?

          Perhaps this year’s First Rounder plus upgrade of another pick (this year or next) if a suitable player wasn’t found.

          I’m interested in it as concept. The question I have is why McGovern is happy to go and West Coast would let him go and fork out $1M? Any idea what those motivations are?
          Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

          Comment

          • Scraggers
            Premiership Moderator
            • Jun 2008
            • 3564

            #6
            Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

            Originally posted by bulldogtragic
            The Herald Sun reported he’s on $1.2-$1.25M for the next two years. So that’s the first thing I think of.

            Barass is a Free Agent next year, and being younger, would be a bigger priority. If they want to rebuild quicker, McGovern might help them.

            Feels like the Brian Lake Trade. I think McGovern night have three years in him, whilst in our window. If they covered about half his salary, then it’s interesting if we tell JJ he’s playing VFL next year with any commitment beyond that. If JJ took a better deal elsewhere, then his $600,000 salary moves to McGovern. That’s a big win on paper.

            Now the harder part, trade value. They probably want more than a first rounder with that level of salary covered. They might ask for more gettable WA players like Garcia. I’m not that interested. JJ was originally from Perth, but would they want him?

            Perhaps this year’s First Rounder plus upgrade of another pick (this year or next) if a suitable player wasn’t found.

            I’m interested in it as concept. The question I have is why McGovern is happy to go and West Coast would let him go and fork out $1M? Any idea what those motivations are?
            I don't think McGovern would be happy to leave. He has tasted Premiership glory with the Eagles once and might have the romantic notion of a one club player (dunno ... speculation), but the Eagles getting back to those haydays is a fair way off; he may never play finals again at the Eagles. They will most likely miss the finals this year even though they sit in the eight right now. The only reason he might want to move is the chance to play in the GF again. Dunno really?? Eagles on the hand know they need a mini rebuild and the likes of McGovern, Hurn, JK (and you could possibly throw Nic Nat into that conversation) are not the three big money earners you want to build a club around. Of the three, McGovern is probably the one that has biggest upside with Hurn's hammys/leg issues and JK's age.

            Comment

            • bulldogtragic
              The List Manager
              • Jan 2007
              • 34316

              #7
              Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

              Originally posted by Scraggers
              I don't think McGovern would be happy to leave. He has tasted Premiership glory with the Eagles once and might have the romantic notion of a one club player (dunno ... speculation), but the Eagles getting back to those haydays is a fair way off; he may never play finals again at the Eagles. They will most likely miss the finals this year even though they sit in the eight right now. The only reason he might want to move is the chance to play in the GF again. Dunno really?? Eagles on the hand know they need a mini rebuild and the likes of McGovern, Hurn, JK (and you could possibly throw Nic Nat into that conversation) are not the three big money earners you want to build a club around. Of the three, McGovern is probably the one that has biggest upside with Hurn's hammys/leg issues and JK's age.
              The problem is that if the money and trade was too high, it might better for clubs to try to target Barass as a Pre Agent this year or Free Agent next year. I think they’re going to be in pain for a while. After winning the Judd trade easily, doing the opposite with Kelly seemed like a big risk to take (Picks 14, 18, 24 & 37). But if they’re serious about rebuilding, someone worth a decent trade return should be offered up.
              Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

              Comment

              • bulldogtragic
                The List Manager
                • Jan 2007
                • 34316

                #8
                Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                Originally posted by Mofra
                Leinert from Port. Basically a 195cm Cordy who can defend, not quite the same aggression.
                Max Lynch is my ideal ruck target. More than Ladhams. His runnign capacity sets him apart so he's the type I think we'd like in our system.
                I really want to keep Ed Richards. Given he's played every game he's fit for I suspect the club see him that way too.
                I don't think JJ walks, group dynamic.

                Lippi and Young are out, I don't think anyone else attracts any picks worth points.
                Tom Lynch as a DFA for one year seems a no brainer. Marra will get nursed through the next year and Naughton can play closer to goal.
                I will keep an eye on Leinert.

                I like Ladhams for his ability to be a genuine threat forward. Alternating that with Tim would give us an genuine extra tall threat which would be handy next year. Both are the same age, similar height and weight, nearly identical stats this year too. Both have improvement to come and could be our main pairing for 8-9 years.

                I want Ed to sign, quite sincerely. But at Round 22 with no signature he has to be discussed as a ‘potential’ trade. It’s a possible outcome until he signs.

                I wouldn’t trade JJ is forced into a trade. But the conversation Saints had with Bruce:

                Jason you’re not going back to the half back line. Next year we want to put games into young small forwards Cody, Riley, Laitham & Lachie to build their experience and synergy together. We expect you will play VFL for most or maybe all of 2022. We can’t guarantee you a contract passed then either. If you find a club in need of your talent that can offer you career certainty we would be prepared to enter into a trade, if that’s what you want to happen.

                $600,000 next year for the very little rerun this year on $600,000 seems crazy to me. It could be the best thing for the club and JJ if it happened in a respectful way. I get he’s well liked, but there’s a limit when 5% of the TPP is involved and we need Draft Points.
                Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

                Comment

                • GVGjr
                  Moderator
                  • Nov 2006
                  • 44451

                  #9
                  Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                  I don't say this anywhere near enough but thanks BT for your input. I literally jump on these threads to read yours any many others insights. Mofra also brings up many names to consider.
                  Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

                  Comment

                  • bulldogtragic
                    The List Manager
                    • Jan 2007
                    • 34316

                    #10
                    Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                    Originally posted by GVGjr
                    I don't say this anywhere near enough but thanks BT for your input. I literally jump on these threads to read yours any many others insights. Mofra also brings up many names to consider.
                    Happy to help, hopefully they’re worth the read. I updated the OP after the discussion with Scraggers. Essentially of the strategy above and it’s show that it’s ballsy but been done in a sense recently, so not completely radical as it could seem:

                    Eagles: Tim Kelly: First Rounder, Future First Rounder, Second & Third Rounder
                    Dogs: Good Ruck, Good KPD, Secure Darcy: First Rounder, Future First Rounder, Future Second & Third Rounder

                    Loosely the same Draft Picks. But West Coast got Kelly. In the scenario we get three very good talls. Two to impact in our window and a gun to develop. Possible vs Probable is a matter for others to judge.
                    Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

                    Comment

                    • azabob
                      Hall of Fame
                      • Sep 2008
                      • 15248

                      #11
                      Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                      Extremely tough sell considering we have Jamara Ugle-hagan and this suggestion goes against everything I stand for and believe in but what about Taylor Walker? Stop gap for Bruce.
                      More of an In Bruges guy?

                      Comment

                      • GVGjr
                        Moderator
                        • Nov 2006
                        • 44451

                        #12
                        Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                        Originally posted by azabob
                        Extremely tough sell considering we have Jamara Ugle-hagan and this suggestion goes against everything I stand for and believe in but what about Taylor Walker? Stop gap for Bruce.
                        Worth considering. He can learn a lot from this experience and if he was to leave the Crows some team might get a better version of Tex.
                        Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

                        Comment

                        • Mofra
                          Hall of Fame
                          • Dec 2006
                          • 14889

                          #13
                          Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                          Originally posted by azabob
                          Extremely tough sell considering we have Jamara Ugle-hagan and this suggestion goes against everything I stand for and believe in but what about Taylor Walker? Stop gap for Bruce.
                          No. Not at all.
                          I'd rather Lynch as a one year DFA cheapy.
                          Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

                          Comment

                          • azabob
                            Hall of Fame
                            • Sep 2008
                            • 15248

                            #14
                            Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                            Neither Tom Lynch or Walker fix our second ruck issues.

                            I think our forward target needs to be able pinch hit in the ruck, unless of course we land a genuine first ruck.
                            More of an In Bruges guy?

                            Comment

                            • bulldogtragic
                              The List Manager
                              • Jan 2007
                              • 34316

                              #15
                              Re: BT's Third Draft (August): 2021 List Management Essay

                              Originally posted by Mofra
                              No. Not at all.
                              I'd rather Lynch as a one year DFA cheapy.
                              Unity ticket. Practically he also has a three game ban to start next year. How’s he going to react being called a racist over the fence? Plus he’s under contract. Not sure if he will play again. But bringing that mess into the club, dominating press conference after press conference and possibly alienating some supporters. I’d say maybe if he hadn’t done what he did. But he did.

                              I think Lynch is the best cheapest one year insurance policy out there right now.
                              Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

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