So the first few draft threads generated some good discussion and different ideas/strategies about how to deal with things over the next couple of months. Many things have changed which significantly change my first draft. Including:
- Sam Darcy kicking 6.3 in three quarters in Vic Metro trial match. Most are now suggesting he's around the Pick 3 mark.
- Bevo has laid out that 3 KPD's is the model going ahead. It makes sense as no doubt the trend of all clubs if they can to take in 3 KPF's. This impacts list decisions about personnel.
- Schache has played 3 games as a KPD. He's gone from a tradable depth forward to a genuine 2022 #3 KPD option.
- Martin is as good as officially done. Lin Jong has retired. Many have re-signed.
- Josh Bruce is out for most or all of next year.
- New rules for List Management.
Signatures Wanted:
Duryea, Sweet (New 4th Year Rookie), Khamis (New 4th Year Rookie), Cordy (to Rookie List), R. Smith (staying on Rookie List).
Retirements & Delistings (4):
(1) Jong (Retired)
(2) Martin (35 next year. Just 6.5 games for the H&A Season)
(3) Hayes (R)
(4) Cavarra (R)
Trade/Free Agency:
Ed Richards - I really, really like him. I hope he stays, but as he's unsigned he needs to be considered until he does sign.
I need 3 of these 4 (per analysis below):
Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.
Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. We will need to trade some out. Hopefully an early Third Rounder.
Lewis Young - I like him, but the MC doesn't to the same degree. He doesn't have much value, so whatever we can get.
Jason Johanissen - Very much hit and miss this year as a forward. His good looks great, his average looks very poor. He's on $600,000 next year. He's competing with Weightman, VDM, McNeil, Scott, Garcia and co. I think he's in the situation Josh Bruce was in at St Kilda. He should ask about whether we are going to offer a good contract next year, and if answer is 'no JJ, please feel free to look around' that's what he should do. The money he's on is not commensurate to his output. I think we need to get an insurance policy for Bruce next season, and we need some salary cap.
Salary Cap Savings: Circa $1.5M - Plus savings from Martin & Jong
Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):
Current Picks: 17 (1,025 DP's) & 72 (19 DP's)
Draft Points Needed for Sam Darcy at Pick 3:
2,234 Draft Points, less 447 Discount = 1,787 Draft Points
Strategy:
I'm now thinking of ALL OUT AGGRESSION with trading out this year. Trading out 2021 First Rounder, 2022 First Rounder & Richards if he wants to leave.
Target 1: Mature Ruckman. I don't know what Pick 18 buys, but to make the discussion flow easier I will pick a name, Peter Ladhams. That might see some points flow back too.
Target 2: Gun Defender. Future First Rounder & Richards (or Pick secured from Richards).
Target 3: Insurance Policy for Josh Bruce in 2022. Delisted Free Agent Tom Lynch. 193cm, 88Kg, 161 Games, Kicked 30+ in a season on four occasions. One year deal, minimal money.
As above, the KPD area in bulked up with the defender above and Josh Schache (after a full preseason) as our #3 KPD on the Third String forward. Schache to also be the Second Ruck. So that's how I'm looking to address the Ruck, KPFs & KPD with mature AFL players. The salary cap savings from the outgoing players cover the incoming players.
Consequence:
We need 1,787 Draft Points. Assume zero Draft Points until we factor in the Player Trades.
The maximum allowable Draft Point Deficit after trading out a First Rounder is 741 DP's.
So we need to find 1,046 Draft Points (or more) this year for the AFL to allow us to carry the Maximum Deficit. That is more than met with the conservative trades for Lipinski, Wallis (compo) & JJ. Points trades & Young gets in enough to match at Pick 2. I now don’t see him going at Pick 1.
List Here:
Out: Jong, Martin, JJ, Wallis, Young, Lipinski, Cordy** (7) -- Cavarra, Hayes (2)
In: Ruck, KPD, Lynch, Darcy, two-three live picks (poss. SSP) (7) -- Cordy, Live Pick (2)
** The new draft rules allow us to move player/s from the Main List to the Rookie List between The National Draft & Rookie Draft. I'd move Cordy down here and he's mature insurance for injuries.
** The new Fourth Year Rookie rule allows us to hold back elevations for Gardner, Khamis &/or Sweet for another year. With limited selections in 2022, we can make our minimum selections with these guys being elevated.
The good news: Ladhams (or similar), Lynch (insurance), Traded Key Defender, Schache as a KPD (having impressed) and Sam Darcy are all secured.
The bad news: Our 2021 & 2022 Draft is limited. If we wanted Cody Raak, he'd need to get passed Pick 41, and Pick 56 for MacPherson if we wanted him. If we wanted Raak and if he did get bid on after Pick 41, we could get him for Pick 91 owing to the new NGA bidding rules. Or Cat B Rookie if there's no bids which is unlikely. If we wanted MacPherson, him getting to Pick 56 would also use next pick. So if we like them and they slide to these targets we can grab them for nothing irrespective of later bids. They could also slip to the rookie draft perhaps.
Mitigation: In 2022 we have the ability to look at Croft Jr, we also have the ability to elevate rookies as our minimum picks. There's probably just the Fourth Rounder at this point. But it's reasonable to assume some players around the fringe might seek more opportunities elsewhere, and that gets us back in the 2022 National Draft.
What Happens To The Deficit If Sam Darcy Slides:
Pick 4: 1,627 Draft Points (+ 160 DP’s Better Off) - That gives us an extra better Fourth Rounder.
Pick 5: 1,502 Draft Points (+ 285 DP's Better Off) - That gets us a Third Rounder with the likely Fourth we still have.
The more Darcy slips, the better our Draft Hand is for 2022.
List Structure:
The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). Before last year we have been traditionally structured to 38 Main & 4 Rookie. There's not much need to change it, unless we really wanted to elevate say Gardner. In that case we eliminate his Rookie List Spot, and Open up a Main List Spot for him. Base Rookie List payments aren't included in the TPP/Salary Cap. So there's loyalty type side to a player, but also the TPP.
That has the Main List (7): Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, JJ, Martin, Young, Cordy.
The Trades/Free Agents (3): Ruck, KPD, Insurance KPF
The Draft Hand (4): Sam Darcy, Two or Three Live Selections (Or One vacancy held over)
That has the Rookie List Cat A (7): Roarke Smith, McNeil (ext. but still here I believe), Gardner, Sweet, Cordy. Live Pick.
The has the Rookie List Cat B (1): Khamis. Raak here is not bid on and we want him.
Total Player Payments: Saved $1.8-$2M all outs. New players and draftees, circa $1.8-$2M all ins. The room we still have above and beyond is left to re-sign players.
So the bottom line to here:
2021: Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak & MacPherson only if they go late, Two or Three late live National Draft picks (one may or may not be Raak or MacPherson), Two live Rookie Draft picks (MacPherson is Cat A & Raak is Cat B if no National Draft bids)
2022: Late picks only right now. Likely fringe trades out. Croft Jr on the potential horizon. Upgrades to make up minimum selection rules.
Rationale For My Thinking:
I'm now firmly in aggressive trade mindset. More kids right now does little for our window. Neither does our main FF going out of the game for 12 months. We can secure Darcy in the top 5, AND, trade 2021 and 2022 First Rounders. The deficit rules permit an aggressive strategy like this. As do the bid match matching rules. We are using under this scenario a 5 to 6 mid range picks across 2021 & 2022 to pay for Sam Darcy. Clubs 'trade down' to get more Draft Points and use a cache of mid range picks to secure top end talent every year. This is doing it in back to back years. While holding onto two First Rounders to trade (&/or Richards if he requests out).
Another way of looking at it is this: Trading the two First Rounds and Future Second & Third Rounder on Draft Points is akin to the Tim Kelly trade of a First Rounder, Future First Rounder, Second Rounder & Third Rounder. For this West Coast got one player, Tim Kelly. In the nearly exact same scenario above, we secure a Ruck worth a First Rounder, a KPD with a First Rounder and enough Draft Points from a Future Second & Third to secure the best KPP in the draft, Sam Darcy. It’s a ballsy strategy, but it could pay significantly better dividends then the Tim Kelly trade. So this kind of strategy is not beyond the realms of recent AFL Trading history.
The obvious benefit is bringing in talent to make the most of our window. The draw back is having (outside of Darcy) only late selections. However, there are priority access players who've played at Footscray this year (Raak & MacPherson) and next year with Croft Jr. So there is some mitigation to grab player a bit ahead of 'market value'.
I think being conservative this year is the wrong time for it. It's also not about 'winning trade week', but if the players i've suggested should be traded go, we have a LOT of salary cap to go with two First Rounders. If we can't find the right players, then that's that. But if we can, great!
I think this is still all going to go in a million directions this year for all of us, let alone Power and his team. Week to week it's going to be really dynamic about which option/s to pursue to get the hurt down to as little as possible. The good news is, after that's all done and the band aids ripped off, we've got our hands on another elite player and first club consecutive dynasty (David, Luke & Sam).
Edit: Notes
1. Bidding/Matching Rules - all complied with
2. Future Trading of Picks Rules - all complied with
3. Rolling 2 in 4 First Round Usage/Trade Rules complied with (Matched Bids on Marra & Darcy count as First Rounders used)
4. Deficit Rules & Limits - all complied with
5. New Draft & List Management Rules - all complied with
Edit: 2019 Deficits From Other Clubs:
In 2019 three clubs went into deficit to draft high and trade too:
Port did it on Jackson Mead (F/S) just after taking Georgiades
Freo did it to get Serong, Young & Henry (NGA) all Top 10
GWS did it to get Ash & Green (Academy) in the Top 10
It’s aggressive with just late picks. But get it right and it works really well.
- Sam Darcy kicking 6.3 in three quarters in Vic Metro trial match. Most are now suggesting he's around the Pick 3 mark.
- Bevo has laid out that 3 KPD's is the model going ahead. It makes sense as no doubt the trend of all clubs if they can to take in 3 KPF's. This impacts list decisions about personnel.
- Schache has played 3 games as a KPD. He's gone from a tradable depth forward to a genuine 2022 #3 KPD option.
- Martin is as good as officially done. Lin Jong has retired. Many have re-signed.
- Josh Bruce is out for most or all of next year.
- New rules for List Management.
Signatures Wanted:
Duryea, Sweet (New 4th Year Rookie), Khamis (New 4th Year Rookie), Cordy (to Rookie List), R. Smith (staying on Rookie List).
Retirements & Delistings (4):
(1) Jong (Retired)
(2) Martin (35 next year. Just 6.5 games for the H&A Season)
(3) Hayes (R)
(4) Cavarra (R)
Trade/Free Agency:
Ed Richards - I really, really like him. I hope he stays, but as he's unsigned he needs to be considered until he does sign.
I need 3 of these 4 (per analysis below):
Mitch Wallis - North are after him, at least. Several other clubs came after him last time, GCS and Essendon the hardest. It might be best for both clubs to embrace each other one last time and then move on in October. Third Round compo would be my expectation. Pick 54.
Pat Lipinski - Every time he gets dropped to the VFL he dominates. When he gets promoted, he's found wanting in the roles given to him. We will need to trade some out. Hopefully an early Third Rounder.
Lewis Young - I like him, but the MC doesn't to the same degree. He doesn't have much value, so whatever we can get.
Jason Johanissen - Very much hit and miss this year as a forward. His good looks great, his average looks very poor. He's on $600,000 next year. He's competing with Weightman, VDM, McNeil, Scott, Garcia and co. I think he's in the situation Josh Bruce was in at St Kilda. He should ask about whether we are going to offer a good contract next year, and if answer is 'no JJ, please feel free to look around' that's what he should do. The money he's on is not commensurate to his output. I think we need to get an insurance policy for Bruce next season, and we need some salary cap.
Salary Cap Savings: Circa $1.5M - Plus savings from Martin & Jong
Indicative Draft Order (As of Today):
Current Picks: 17 (1,025 DP's) & 72 (19 DP's)
Draft Points Needed for Sam Darcy at Pick 3:
2,234 Draft Points, less 447 Discount = 1,787 Draft Points
Strategy:
I'm now thinking of ALL OUT AGGRESSION with trading out this year. Trading out 2021 First Rounder, 2022 First Rounder & Richards if he wants to leave.
Target 1: Mature Ruckman. I don't know what Pick 18 buys, but to make the discussion flow easier I will pick a name, Peter Ladhams. That might see some points flow back too.
Target 2: Gun Defender. Future First Rounder & Richards (or Pick secured from Richards).
Target 3: Insurance Policy for Josh Bruce in 2022. Delisted Free Agent Tom Lynch. 193cm, 88Kg, 161 Games, Kicked 30+ in a season on four occasions. One year deal, minimal money.
As above, the KPD area in bulked up with the defender above and Josh Schache (after a full preseason) as our #3 KPD on the Third String forward. Schache to also be the Second Ruck. So that's how I'm looking to address the Ruck, KPFs & KPD with mature AFL players. The salary cap savings from the outgoing players cover the incoming players.
Consequence:
We need 1,787 Draft Points. Assume zero Draft Points until we factor in the Player Trades.
The maximum allowable Draft Point Deficit after trading out a First Rounder is 741 DP's.
So we need to find 1,046 Draft Points (or more) this year for the AFL to allow us to carry the Maximum Deficit. That is more than met with the conservative trades for Lipinski, Wallis (compo) & JJ. Points trades & Young gets in enough to match at Pick 2. I now don’t see him going at Pick 1.
List Here:
Out: Jong, Martin, JJ, Wallis, Young, Lipinski, Cordy** (7) -- Cavarra, Hayes (2)
In: Ruck, KPD, Lynch, Darcy, two-three live picks (poss. SSP) (7) -- Cordy, Live Pick (2)
** The new draft rules allow us to move player/s from the Main List to the Rookie List between The National Draft & Rookie Draft. I'd move Cordy down here and he's mature insurance for injuries.
** The new Fourth Year Rookie rule allows us to hold back elevations for Gardner, Khamis &/or Sweet for another year. With limited selections in 2022, we can make our minimum selections with these guys being elevated.
The good news: Ladhams (or similar), Lynch (insurance), Traded Key Defender, Schache as a KPD (having impressed) and Sam Darcy are all secured.
The bad news: Our 2021 & 2022 Draft is limited. If we wanted Cody Raak, he'd need to get passed Pick 41, and Pick 56 for MacPherson if we wanted him. If we wanted Raak and if he did get bid on after Pick 41, we could get him for Pick 91 owing to the new NGA bidding rules. Or Cat B Rookie if there's no bids which is unlikely. If we wanted MacPherson, him getting to Pick 56 would also use next pick. So if we like them and they slide to these targets we can grab them for nothing irrespective of later bids. They could also slip to the rookie draft perhaps.
Mitigation: In 2022 we have the ability to look at Croft Jr, we also have the ability to elevate rookies as our minimum picks. There's probably just the Fourth Rounder at this point. But it's reasonable to assume some players around the fringe might seek more opportunities elsewhere, and that gets us back in the 2022 National Draft.
What Happens To The Deficit If Sam Darcy Slides:
Pick 4: 1,627 Draft Points (+ 160 DP’s Better Off) - That gives us an extra better Fourth Rounder.
Pick 5: 1,502 Draft Points (+ 285 DP's Better Off) - That gets us a Third Rounder with the likely Fourth we still have.
The more Darcy slips, the better our Draft Hand is for 2022.
List Structure:
The list is currently 36 Main, 6 Rookie (1 Cat B extra). Before last year we have been traditionally structured to 38 Main & 4 Rookie. There's not much need to change it, unless we really wanted to elevate say Gardner. In that case we eliminate his Rookie List Spot, and Open up a Main List Spot for him. Base Rookie List payments aren't included in the TPP/Salary Cap. So there's loyalty type side to a player, but also the TPP.
That has the Main List (7): Out: Jong, Lipinski, Wallis, JJ, Martin, Young, Cordy.
The Trades/Free Agents (3): Ruck, KPD, Insurance KPF
The Draft Hand (4): Sam Darcy, Two or Three Live Selections (Or One vacancy held over)
That has the Rookie List Cat A (7): Roarke Smith, McNeil (ext. but still here I believe), Gardner, Sweet, Cordy. Live Pick.
The has the Rookie List Cat B (1): Khamis. Raak here is not bid on and we want him.
Total Player Payments: Saved $1.8-$2M all outs. New players and draftees, circa $1.8-$2M all ins. The room we still have above and beyond is left to re-sign players.
So the bottom line to here:
2021: Sam Darcy, a Priority Access line on Raak & MacPherson only if they go late, Two or Three late live National Draft picks (one may or may not be Raak or MacPherson), Two live Rookie Draft picks (MacPherson is Cat A & Raak is Cat B if no National Draft bids)
2022: Late picks only right now. Likely fringe trades out. Croft Jr on the potential horizon. Upgrades to make up minimum selection rules.
Rationale For My Thinking:
I'm now firmly in aggressive trade mindset. More kids right now does little for our window. Neither does our main FF going out of the game for 12 months. We can secure Darcy in the top 5, AND, trade 2021 and 2022 First Rounders. The deficit rules permit an aggressive strategy like this. As do the bid match matching rules. We are using under this scenario a 5 to 6 mid range picks across 2021 & 2022 to pay for Sam Darcy. Clubs 'trade down' to get more Draft Points and use a cache of mid range picks to secure top end talent every year. This is doing it in back to back years. While holding onto two First Rounders to trade (&/or Richards if he requests out).
Another way of looking at it is this: Trading the two First Rounds and Future Second & Third Rounder on Draft Points is akin to the Tim Kelly trade of a First Rounder, Future First Rounder, Second Rounder & Third Rounder. For this West Coast got one player, Tim Kelly. In the nearly exact same scenario above, we secure a Ruck worth a First Rounder, a KPD with a First Rounder and enough Draft Points from a Future Second & Third to secure the best KPP in the draft, Sam Darcy. It’s a ballsy strategy, but it could pay significantly better dividends then the Tim Kelly trade. So this kind of strategy is not beyond the realms of recent AFL Trading history.
The obvious benefit is bringing in talent to make the most of our window. The draw back is having (outside of Darcy) only late selections. However, there are priority access players who've played at Footscray this year (Raak & MacPherson) and next year with Croft Jr. So there is some mitigation to grab player a bit ahead of 'market value'.
I think being conservative this year is the wrong time for it. It's also not about 'winning trade week', but if the players i've suggested should be traded go, we have a LOT of salary cap to go with two First Rounders. If we can't find the right players, then that's that. But if we can, great!
I think this is still all going to go in a million directions this year for all of us, let alone Power and his team. Week to week it's going to be really dynamic about which option/s to pursue to get the hurt down to as little as possible. The good news is, after that's all done and the band aids ripped off, we've got our hands on another elite player and first club consecutive dynasty (David, Luke & Sam).
Edit: Notes
1. Bidding/Matching Rules - all complied with
2. Future Trading of Picks Rules - all complied with
3. Rolling 2 in 4 First Round Usage/Trade Rules complied with (Matched Bids on Marra & Darcy count as First Rounders used)
4. Deficit Rules & Limits - all complied with
5. New Draft & List Management Rules - all complied with
Edit: 2019 Deficits From Other Clubs:
In 2019 three clubs went into deficit to draft high and trade too:
Port did it on Jackson Mead (F/S) just after taking Georgiades
Freo did it to get Serong, Young & Henry (NGA) all Top 10
GWS did it to get Ash & Green (Academy) in the Top 10
It’s aggressive with just late picks. But get it right and it works really well.
Comment