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WESTERN BULLDOGS:
Current Indicative Draft Order: 10, 17, 36, 63, 66 & 71
Picks 10 & 17 (will be 15-18) - for - Pick 4 - Likely 5 after Mackay compo
Picks 36, 63, 66 & 71 = 723 Draft Points
1,063 DP needed for Jordan Croft after discount at Pick 11 (Twomey suggests 11)
340 Draft Points short. But easily made up by splitting Pick 36 (you?d expect c. 150 from such a trade based on precedent) and likely points for Khamis (101 points if Essendon) & Sweet (say swap WCE 71 for 57, netting 153 extra points).
Lual if he gets passed Pick 40 is about 200 points or free at Pick 55+. So easily live tradable or if we got a few extra points elsewhere. Maybe an unneeded late GCS pick minor upgrade.
So looks like if we get GCS Pick 4. It is Watson/McKercher, Croft and perhaps maybe Lual, a late pick, then rookie upgrade/s
Draft Rules: Note we need to have open list spots open equal to the picks we take in. So say we want to use 5 later picks to cover Croft and possibly Lual. With Watson we need to have 6 spots open. We do the rookie elevations after the ND. So right now we have three vacancies. Bring Bruce, Hannan & TOB. So we need to find three more. Say Croz, Sweet & Khamis. But players we trade in for, need to have spots opened. Say it?s three players traded, two of need and a ruck to cover Sweet. Now we need to clear all our uncontracted players from the main list. If that doesn?t happen, with four vacancies soon on the rookie list we can move one or two spots from our rookie list to main list to cover it. I?m not sure we?d take four rookies, so maybe this is on the cards to keep say a Duryea &/or Bedendo in lieu of late rookie draft picks. Or we could not trade for ruck depth and look for a DFA after the draft or a state league run the draft to save a spot.
I suspect, but for say compo for McLean, trading is heavily centred on future picks. Which works with Lohmann/Brisbane as an example.
No Free Agents have been linked to us, at least recently or seriously.
Trading: As you can see above, even with splitting our second rounder and trading Sweet & Khamis we will only just cover our points needs. Thus, we don?t have the trade capital as it stands right now. Maybe a player requests a trade out, maybe GCS swap a later pick if they don?t need the points. But the smart money says future picks will be needed to look at trades like Lohmann and the reported interest in Coffield. Brisbane will want points for Ashcroft II next year, so that makes sense there.
Is Power telling the truth?: Yes. As you can see from the math, it looks like Watson/McKercher, Croft, maybe Lual if he slides passed Pick 40 and maybe a late pick. So somewhere between 2-4 picks at the ND. With Scott to be upgraded and possibly McNeil or Roarke not that I?d personally do either elevation. But the club seems to like gifting McNeil games especially?
Then say we trimmed the rookie list by one, that would leave three spots. Based on last year, maybe one pick (we like re-rooking a kid with injuries so maybe Bedendo - even though it’s not worked out really well as a long term strategy), one SSP/DFA and leaving one spot open for the MSD.
Any bigger name players asking for a trade out will need to involved picks higher than 10.
It looks like a somewhat normal kind of turnover, maybe 7-8 off the main list tops. But with rookie upgrade/s it?s not really that high. It doesn?t look like a big change is coming, unless the players run for the doors. Evolution not revolution. It looks like we are focussed on young high end talent. Say younger former/first rounders in Watson/McKercher (5), Croft (11), Coffield (8), Lohmann (20) and hoping for Lual and then maybe a late ND pick, early RD pick and perhaps using SSP/DFA to fill a need. I suggested Ethan Phillips last year for KPD depth, so I?d have a look at him or other state leaguers unless there?s an unlucky delisting (highly doubt it).
I suppose the club a part from looking at natural talent is hoping that Croft learns his trade without time pressure with Lobb around for a while. It must be banking on Darcy, JOD & Buss stepping up next year. If it was say Watson - then he can come almost right in as a small forward and with Lohmann & Clarke we have three quick/natural small forward and can release Weightman to any role he can execute (mid time, HHF, deep forward etc). The forward half looks great, and pushes West, Garcia & McNeil back into the mid group, but the mids can not continue to be predictable and relying on second year KPD?s and an injured Coffield isn?t a solution down back.
But that?s basically the state of play as I can see it today.
Current Indicative Draft Order: 10, 17, 36, 63, 66 & 71
Picks 10 & 17 (will be 15-18) - for - Pick 4 - Likely 5 after Mackay compo
Picks 36, 63, 66 & 71 = 723 Draft Points
1,063 DP needed for Jordan Croft after discount at Pick 11 (Twomey suggests 11)
340 Draft Points short. But easily made up by splitting Pick 36 (you?d expect c. 150 from such a trade based on precedent) and likely points for Khamis (101 points if Essendon) & Sweet (say swap WCE 71 for 57, netting 153 extra points).
Lual if he gets passed Pick 40 is about 200 points or free at Pick 55+. So easily live tradable or if we got a few extra points elsewhere. Maybe an unneeded late GCS pick minor upgrade.
So looks like if we get GCS Pick 4. It is Watson/McKercher, Croft and perhaps maybe Lual, a late pick, then rookie upgrade/s
Draft Rules: Note we need to have open list spots open equal to the picks we take in. So say we want to use 5 later picks to cover Croft and possibly Lual. With Watson we need to have 6 spots open. We do the rookie elevations after the ND. So right now we have three vacancies. Bring Bruce, Hannan & TOB. So we need to find three more. Say Croz, Sweet & Khamis. But players we trade in for, need to have spots opened. Say it?s three players traded, two of need and a ruck to cover Sweet. Now we need to clear all our uncontracted players from the main list. If that doesn?t happen, with four vacancies soon on the rookie list we can move one or two spots from our rookie list to main list to cover it. I?m not sure we?d take four rookies, so maybe this is on the cards to keep say a Duryea &/or Bedendo in lieu of late rookie draft picks. Or we could not trade for ruck depth and look for a DFA after the draft or a state league run the draft to save a spot.
I suspect, but for say compo for McLean, trading is heavily centred on future picks. Which works with Lohmann/Brisbane as an example.
No Free Agents have been linked to us, at least recently or seriously.
Trading: As you can see above, even with splitting our second rounder and trading Sweet & Khamis we will only just cover our points needs. Thus, we don?t have the trade capital as it stands right now. Maybe a player requests a trade out, maybe GCS swap a later pick if they don?t need the points. But the smart money says future picks will be needed to look at trades like Lohmann and the reported interest in Coffield. Brisbane will want points for Ashcroft II next year, so that makes sense there.
Is Power telling the truth?: Yes. As you can see from the math, it looks like Watson/McKercher, Croft, maybe Lual if he slides passed Pick 40 and maybe a late pick. So somewhere between 2-4 picks at the ND. With Scott to be upgraded and possibly McNeil or Roarke not that I?d personally do either elevation. But the club seems to like gifting McNeil games especially?
Then say we trimmed the rookie list by one, that would leave three spots. Based on last year, maybe one pick (we like re-rooking a kid with injuries so maybe Bedendo - even though it’s not worked out really well as a long term strategy), one SSP/DFA and leaving one spot open for the MSD.
Any bigger name players asking for a trade out will need to involved picks higher than 10.
It looks like a somewhat normal kind of turnover, maybe 7-8 off the main list tops. But with rookie upgrade/s it?s not really that high. It doesn?t look like a big change is coming, unless the players run for the doors. Evolution not revolution. It looks like we are focussed on young high end talent. Say younger former/first rounders in Watson/McKercher (5), Croft (11), Coffield (8), Lohmann (20) and hoping for Lual and then maybe a late ND pick, early RD pick and perhaps using SSP/DFA to fill a need. I suggested Ethan Phillips last year for KPD depth, so I?d have a look at him or other state leaguers unless there?s an unlucky delisting (highly doubt it).
I suppose the club a part from looking at natural talent is hoping that Croft learns his trade without time pressure with Lobb around for a while. It must be banking on Darcy, JOD & Buss stepping up next year. If it was say Watson - then he can come almost right in as a small forward and with Lohmann & Clarke we have three quick/natural small forward and can release Weightman to any role he can execute (mid time, HHF, deep forward etc). The forward half looks great, and pushes West, Garcia & McNeil back into the mid group, but the mids can not continue to be predictable and relying on second year KPD?s and an injured Coffield isn?t a solution down back.
But that?s basically the state of play as I can see it today.
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