BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

[bulldogtragic]

Picks: (5) 48, 50, 52, 53 & 56

Draft Points:

302
273 - 575
246 - 821
233 - 1,054
194 - 1,248

Now as bids are matched, this should shuffle up/rise by maybe around 209 draft points (say all rise by three places in net terms)


Croft Bid/Pick (less discount) / surplus draft points:

9. 1,173 / 75 plus shuffle up 209 = 284 points
10. 1,115 / 133 plus shuffle up 209 = 342 points
11. 1,063 / 185 plus shuffle up 209 = 394 points
12. 1,014 / 234 plus shuffle up 209 = 443 points
13. 970 / 278 plus shuffle up 209 = 487 points


Lual:

Sliding scale of points needed:

Pick 41 - Need 219 points after discount
To
Pick 56 - Free

Take away: If Lual gets to us, Croft can go Pick 9 and we can get Lual without deficit if he slides



Our 3 x Fourths this year: By my reckoning we need to bring in a F4 to comply with future trading rules. I suspect since we do not need them this year they willbe used to get a F4 somewhere.


Worst Case: Pick 6, Croft, NO Lual, maybe a 50’s pick
In between: Pick 6, Croft, Lual and a near end of draft selection which maybe not used
Best Case: Pick 6, Croft, Lual & 50’s pick

2-4 Draftees

[mjp]

Re: BT?s National Draft Cheat Sheet

Any word on whether we would take Lual if the opportunity is there?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT?s National Draft Cheat Sheet

Any word on whether we would take Lual if the opportunity is there?

Power in an interview about the GCS trade referenced our points strategy included academy bids. So without naming him, I think that suggests he is definitely on our wish list.

[hujsh]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

If we enter the draft with 5 list spots does that mean we can only use 5 picks for points all up or can we use 5 for the first bid and then the next 2-4 picks on the next bid

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

If we enter the draft with 5 list spots does that mean we can only use 5 picks for points all up or can we use 5 for the first bid and then the next 2-4 picks on the next bid

We need to take in 6 vacancies. Pick 6 being one, then the next five picks with points being the balance.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Picks 69, 72 & 75 must be up for sale. We won’t need or use them.

(They might end up 61, 64 & 67 with GCS, Haw & us to use maybe 16 picks matching 5 players plus wherever the Sydney Academy kid comes in)

Perhaps a F4 for 69 (61) is a chance. Perhaps Port with only 73 might be interested, now holding a couple of F4’s so I’d think they won’t use both next year, so maybe Port are a chance to trade for it.

But 72 & 75 are probably worthless, save for good will trades. But if the draft ends at around 65 they’re pretty much the last pick anyway.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Western Bulldogs: 5, 48, 50, 52, 53, 56, 69 (72 & 75 for trading or throwing away)

Say Walter goes at Pick 2, Read before Croft, Rogers after Croft. Net shuffle up three spots.

Now: 6, 45, 47, 49, 50, 53 & 66.

Say Croft at Pick 13: 1,212 points less 20% = 970 Points to match bid

Pick 45: 347
Pick 47: 316 (663)
Pick 49: 287 (950)
Pick 50: 273 (1,223 - Pick 52 coming back)

Now:

Pick 6
Croft
Pick 52, 53 & 66

Croft takes up a net three picks, say at least one each on four FS/Academy before our third rounders. Picks shuffle up 7 spots.


Now:

Pick 6
Croft
Pick 45, 46 & 59 (45 & 46 unlikely shuffled back by NGA 40+ bids)


From here:

- Lual is gone. We take back to back picks at 45 & 46 to round out our four draftees. Have Pick 59 to trade along with fourth rounders we won’t be using.

- Lual is not gone. If he is one of our four, use pick 45, trade pick 46 out (as there’s a 197 point discount to use here) for a late F2/early F3, and keep Pick 59 for points to match a bid on Lual. Pick 59 is enough points even if a club trades for our Pick 46 and uses it to bid on Lual.

I wouldn’t bet on a bid between 41-44. If he slides.


Could be:

1. Pick 6, Croft, Pick 45, Pick 46 and hopefully a future trade in of pick/s

2. Pick 6, Croft, Pick 45, Lual, late F2/early F3.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Side Note on above:

When Croft is bid above, the trade with GCS is Pick 45 and the 53 comes into 46.

So the full trade is 11, 18, F1 - Pick 6, 778 Draft points and a F3. If their F3 is around 45, or 347 points…

Then we get Pick 6 and picks to the value of 1,125 Draft Points (= Pick 15)

Or assuming we finish 9th (Pick 11 after Ashcroft bid next year)

Picks 11, 18 & 11 - for - Pick 6 & =15

Dogs give up around 700 points or a mid second rounder as the premium.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Great work BT appreciated.

Will McCabe will probably go just after Croft and that could shuffle some picks around. Hawks have picks 44, 47 and 49.
It's speculated that the Crows might even have a crack at him at pick 14 so if that's before Croft it could be a bonus.
The Suns have 4 academy picks they will want to bring in and 3 of them should go before Croft. I wonder if this might open up a pick trade scenario for us with the Suns to get something extra for 2024 especially if we don't need points if Lual goes earlier than 40.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Great work BT appreciated.

Will McCabe will probably go just after Croft and that could shuffle some picks around. Hawks have picks 44, 47 and 49.
It's speculated that the Crows might even have a crack at him at pick 14 so if that's before Croft it could be a bonus.
The Suns have 4 academy picks they will want to bring in and 3 of them should go before Croft. I wonder if this might open up a pick trade scenario for us with the Suns to get something extra for 2024 especially if we don't need points if Lual goes earlier than 40.

I think we will be amongst the most active live traders this year. If Croft can go mid teens and we wind up with two mid 40’s picks, and Lusl is out, hopefully there’s a premiership aspirant offering their F2 which would be around the same point next year. If we could recruit a 40’s kid and get a F2 that’s be great. (Lual slipping to 45+ dream stuff). Having two F2’s and hopefully a good F3 tied to GCS can put us in a position to trade up into a F1 next year.

It will be epic 3D chess is live trading, but we have a bunch of picks to trade to offset the cost to GCS. If we can bolster ip next year while taking Watson/Sanders, Croft a mid 40’s kid and either another or Lual and get back some presence then it looks a lot more balanced if those on the list management team running scenarios can execute a few good pick trades. It will be really interesting. The media will focus off our blue chip picks, but my focus will be on the live trading.

[The Doctor]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Great work BT appreciated.

Will McCabe will probably go just after Croft and that could shuffle some picks around. Hawks have picks 44, 47 and 49.
It's speculated that the Crows might even have a crack at him at pick 14 so if that's before Croft it could be a bonus.
The Suns have 4 academy picks they will want to bring in and 3 of them should go before Croft. I wonder if this might open up a pick trade scenario for us with the Suns to get something extra for 2024 especially if we don't need points if Lual goes earlier than 40.

Caiden Cleary is another who could go high which could help shuffle our picks up higher again.

I think BT has sniffed out a bone in the draft field. I can see the possibility of us trading in some way a late pick/s. I wouldnt be surprised if we were to target GC current pick 38 especially if Croft was to drift a bit in the order.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Caiden Cleary is another who could go high which could help shuffle our picks up higher again.

I think BT has sniffed out a bone in the draft field. I can see the possibility of us trading in some way a late pick/s. I wouldnt be surprised if we were to target GC current pick 38 especially if Croft was to drift a bit in the order.

For every pick Croft slides, our options really open. For those less familiar with the draft points scale (deduct a 20% discount):

10. 1395
11. 1329
12. 1268
13. 1212
14. 1161
15. 1112
16. 1067
17. 1025
18. 985


It looks like if Croft gets to 14, or further out, our fourth pick is untouched and could come into us holding Picks 43 & 46 once the main bids are in. That is the equivalent points to Pick 27 if trading up this year.

On the idea of not trading for future picks, but trading up to GCS Pick 38, it will be a tight run thing. If Rogers bid comes before Croft then I think 38 will be sucked up by matching a Rogers bid. But if Croft comes first then our third round picks will come in by say 3 and hold more points for GCS making it more appealing for them.

So if we could offer them our thirds =Pick 30 (later matched bids won’t come in yet making it 27) for their Pick then into 35. If they wanted the extra points if the cards fall that way and did that with us (although it seems a little low at 107 extra points, they might want to swap back thirds maybe):

Pick 6, Croft, Pick 35, Pick 59 (points to cover Lual if he slides - or live pick)

Doesn’t do much to help next year, but if there?s a really good kid at Pick 35, there?s at least a phone call on the night to GCS to see if there?s something they want to do.

There?s so many different scenarios for our guts to argue about and then juggle in real time.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Dunkley, Pick 23: 815 points

GCS, Picks 44 & 45 (after bids): 709 points

So the two GCS picks this year nearly equal the Dunkley pick. So cancel out 23 and the thirds this year.

So now it?s, Pick 13 & F1 for Pick 6 & F3

Looks a lot better now!

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Now:

Hunter & F4 - for - Pick 47 & Coffield (& huge salary cap relief)

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's National Draft Cheat Sheet

Dunkley, Pick 23: 815 points

GCS, Picks 44 & 45 (after bids): 709 points

So the two GCS picks this year nearly equal the Dunkley pick. So cancel out 23 and the thirds this year.

So now it?s, Pick 13 & F1 for Pick 6 & F3

Looks a lot better now!

If we finish 9th again and them 13th next year, for example after expected bid on Ashcroft/compo:

Picks 11 & 13 - for - Picks 6 & 45

A cost of just points equal to about Pick 30. Not that large a premium at all.

You do that deal every time. Finish top 8 and it just gets better.