Matched Bids In The Modern Era

[bulldogtragic]

WARNING: VERY LONG THREAD


So this is after the Third Round matching rule was scrapped, what for ease I?m calling the modern era, where previously Geelong were taking GAJ & Hawkins for third rounders.

This turned out to be more research than I anticipated, as the volume surprised me. So the list I think is exhaustive, but I may have missed some. These are just ND picks and not rookie or Cat B. But the conclusions you draw or the points illusions be the same.

I am making up a number to indicate the price paid per club on average. This is the cumulative draft selections added up divided by the number of players taken. It?s not just the price, but it?s an indication on the expected talented of the matched bid players. The lower score, the higher the kid cost and in most cases the kid is a higher quality one. So the lower score the better the club has been doing.


To start with us:

Western Bulldogs: Average Price 25.7

14 A. Cordy
22 Wallis
41 Libba
49 Hunter
62 Z. Cordy
26 West
1 Marra
2 Darcy
15 Croft (I.e 232 total / 9 players = 25.7)


You?ll see after the Northern Academies and knowing our relative success versus other Vic clubs, this has greatly helped us compete against clubs with huge talent catchments and priority access. And the FS need to keep flowing with West & Cooney just to try to keep up with the Northern Academies. We?ve been very luck that outside Ayce, we?ve got some rolled gold guns.


NORTHERN STATES:

The shear volume is staggering, especially factoring in that they don?t take all their kids. It?s hard to compete against st these machines and more do when clubs won?t make these clubs pay fair value almost all of the time.

GWS: Score: 27.1

24 Steele
85 Finlayson
7 Hopper
13 Matt Kennedy
16 Himmelberg
41 Flynn
5 Setterfield
14 Perryman
20 Cumming
64 Shipley
34 Briggs
10 Tom Greene
42 Fahey
16 Rowston


Sydney: Score 18.9

21 Mitchell
18 Heeney
38 Hiscox
3 Mills
10 Blakey
5 Campbell
32 Gulden
24 Cleary


Brisbane: 22.2

44 Dawson
62 H. Andrews
14 Hipwood
24 Keays
54 Payne
42 McFadyen
37 K. Coleman
24 B. Coleman
2 Ashcroft
5 Ashcroft
13 Fletcher
25 Marshall
42 Gallop


GCS: Score: 22.2

10 Bowes
52 Crossley
55 Nutting
3 Walter
9 Read
14 Rogers
26 Graham
9 Lombard


SA & WA:

These guys just aren?t getting much of a look in.

Freo: Score 49.6

62 Brennan
9 Henry 71
50 Walker
54 Western
54 Benning
63 Carr


WCE: Score: 64

76 Waterman
77 Jake Waterman
39 Cameron


Port: Score 33.6

25 Mead
16 Jones
60 Burgoyne


Crows: Score 38

17 Michalanney
59 Welsh


VICTORIA:

Not really seeing Victorian clubs rack up the types of players like we are with the exception of Collingwood.


Carlton: Score: 56.1

62 Buckley
53 Silvagni
70 Silvagni
43 Camporeale
54 Camporeale


Geelong: Score: 80

86 Bews
74 Brownless


Saints: Score: 43

49 Rice
33 Owens
47 Windhager


Essendon: Score: 35.6

10 Daniher
39 Eyre
53 Brand
45 A. Davey Jr
54 J. Davey
13 Kako


North: Score: 45.2

8 McDonald
8 Thomas
49 Scott
69 Crocker
59 Archer
56 Harvey
67 Stevens


Collingwood: Score: 30.1

35 C. Brown
57 J. Daicos
50 T. Brown
13 Quaynor
29 Kelly
(77 Bosenavulagi - taking out as skews this)
23 McInness
4 Umpires Love Child


Richmond: Score: 42.5

34 Naish
51 Rioli Jr


Hawks: Score: 34.7

29 Maginness
35 Downie
19 McCabe
56 Dear


Dees: Score: 60.6

42 Stretch
75 Bedford
65 Woewodin




Leaderboard:

Rest: 62 Players Priory Access & Taken, Average 4.2 per club (Dogs 9)

Dogs 25.7
Woods 30.1
Port 33.6
Hawks 34.7
Dons 35.6
Crows 38
Tigers 42.5
Saints 43
North 45.2
Freo 49.6
Blues 56.1
Dees 60.6
Eagles 64
Geelong 80


Looking at these numbers it confirms the eye test that the Dogs & Pies are clearly doing the best of the rest. So for talent clearly the bigger clubs are pulling the bigger trades and free agents and our ability to shoe horn talent in is good luck and good genes. Look at similar size clubs to ours or even some of the big clubs. Without big trades and priority access kids of a good quality their form over this period against ours is lesser to say the least.


Northern: 44 players priority across AND taken (average 11 per club):

Sydney 18.9
GWS 20.1 (ex. Finlayson & Shipley, otherwise 27.1)
Brisbane 22.2
GCS 22.2

Sydney play a lot of finals and GFs. Same with Brisbane. GWS a lot of finals. Once GCS cease being a basket case, they will too. What a coincidence.

Next best Dogs 25.7 and Woods 30.1. The rest is 50% higher. Our 25.7 shows just how lucky we have been. With GCS & Sydney apparently with top 5-10 academy kids next year the rich will keep getting richer and we keep having to rely on good genes and good luck with Levi West a lock and hoping Jaxon Cooney comes on too.

Big clubs make up for this is better trades/free agents. Geelong screw clubs over and do well at the back end of the draft. If the Northern Academies will continue indefinitely like this, if we can?t stick good trades or buy free agents, we need to rely on our recruiters nailing most mid to late picks (hard task), good priority access kids coming through (can?t keep happening forever) and/or retaining our good players (which is a bit of an issue).

That said, but the topic at hand. Our former players have helped insulate us to some degree (better than any other club) over the excessive northern academies, but most Vic Clubs haven?t nor have the SA & WA clubs. I?m not sure how long this can continue and then act surprised when the four northern teams dominate the top 8 most years. It?s good for engagement in NSW & QLD. But one wonders if the traditional supporting states will start to reject more and more the contempt the AFEL has for the rest of us.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Matched Bids In The Modern Era

Great thread mate. I think your conclusions make more sense, but the conspiracy theorist in me throws up the possibility if clubs just bid on our picks sooner because they are not scared of us or we are not doing enough backroom deals.

Marra and Darcy going at #1 or #2 is a sour taste when you see literally *everyone* eligible slide to a Black Friday discounted price this year

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Matched Bids In The Modern Era

Great thread mate. I think your conclusions make more sense, but the conspiracy theorist in me throws up the possibility if clubs just bid on our picks sooner because they are not scared of us or we are not doing enough backroom deals.

Marra and Darcy going at #1 or #2 is a sour taste when you see literally *everyone* eligible slide to a Black Friday discounted price this year

Even if Marra & Darcy slid a little further, that wouldn’t drastically alter us being the best comfortably outside of the northern academies. If both boys hit their potential, the price doesn’t bother me at all, but hope West slides like others are doing in recent times. That we got our hands on picks #1 & #2 is such a huge advantage for us compared to most clubs who haven’t seen anything like this result. Just very lucky.

[jazzadogs]

Re: Matched Bids In The Modern Era

I think there's a big difference between lucky father sons and rorting academies. Having guys listed in the Brisbane academy when they have played TAC cup for Sandringham is ridiculous.

Marra and Darcy were bid on at value, and it significantly affected our draft hands for two years. We were very lucky to get them, and I would have understood if we weren't eligible for Jamarra given he no longer lived in our academy zone (was going to private school in Melbourne wasn't he?)

The academies are important for the game but it is highly inequitable at the moment. Not that the AFL cares.

[GVGjr]

Re: Matched Bids In The Modern Era

A lot of data and analysis but well worth the read. Thanks BT

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Matched Bids In The Modern Era

I think there's a big difference between lucky father sons and rorting academies. Having guys listed in the Brisbane academy when they have played TAC cup for Sandringham is ridiculous.

Marra and Darcy were bid on at value, and it significantly affected our draft hands for two years. We were very lucky to get them, and I would have understood if we weren't eligible for Jamarra given he no longer lived in our academy zone (was going to private school in Melbourne wasn't he?)

The academies are important for the game but it is highly inequitable at the moment. Not that the AFL cares.

Couldn’t agree more. When I thought of this thread, I didn’t actually realise the huge number of NA kids as I went draft to draft and had to write them all down. It was one thing to generally know of this rort, but to see the extent to which it’s happening was another. Also worth noting, the increase in these kids going to these four clubs is increasing year after year. It’s not a statistical blip, but there’s a sharp trend indicating the inequity here is getting worse. Twomey today alone has Brisbane, GCS & Sydney plundering the top 10 again next year which highlights this pipeline of elite kids making these clubs unfairly stronger ain’t getting turned off. The NGA rules reverting to original settings is not enough to balance things out. How depleted does the rest of the comp need to get before something gets done?