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Dissecting the draft
Emma Quayle | October 11, 2009
With the trade period over, next on the AFL agenda is the national draft. Emma Quayle looks at the key questions surrounding this year's talent pool.
So, is this year's draft really as bad as everyone has been saying?
''Yes'', was how one recruiting manager answered that question. ''It's mediocre,'' said another, and that seems a popular line of thinking. Each draft has ''layers'' of talent, and the very top layer this year is a small one. Where last year there were, say, 15 players any recruiter would have happily picked, this year some are nominating as few as four. Others say it's more like six, eight or 10. What happens? The consensus is, it evens out quickly, that you don't really want to be picking after 50 and that there are fewer certain prospects. ''It flatlines after 10,'' said a recruiter. ''That doesn't mean there aren't any reasonable players there, but there aren't any absolute guarantees, and everyone's list will be different. Someone's No. 11 will be someone else's 30.'' Said another: ''After 10, you could throw a blanket over 30 of them.'' Because the group is considered so even, this may be a draft where ''needs'' come into play with picks as early as the teens. Adding to that is that Melbourne and the Power will share so many early picks [they share seven of the first 18]. They might pick someone ahead of time with the last of their picks. It's a weird situation: the Port team's day will be done before Geelong starts at pick 17.
Why is there no depth? The 17-year-olds have been removed - and they generally comprise about a third of any draft. One recruiter suspects 20 would have been drafted this year. Plus, many of those 17-year-olds - the best of whom have been signed by the Gold Coast - are very, very good players. At least three - Josh Toy, Maverick Weller and Luke Russell, plus possibly Trent McKenzie and one or two more - would have been first-round picks if they were in this year's draft. Toy would have pushed for top three. ''We'd be talking about what an amazingly good first round we had if those players were in it,'' said one recruiter. This draft could see a really low number of players chosen, and it's hard to see anyone taking more than their mandatory three picks [aside from perhaps Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle and Richmond, the first two having loaded up with top 30 picks] and possibly Geelong, which needs to bring in kids. For the first time this season, clubs can use one of those three picks to upgrade a rookie, and I suspect quite a few will take this option. We could only have 50-something fresh players drafted.
Read the article in full
Dissecting the draft
Emma Quayle | October 11, 2009
With the trade period over, next on the AFL agenda is the national draft. Emma Quayle looks at the key questions surrounding this year's talent pool.
So, is this year's draft really as bad as everyone has been saying?
''Yes'', was how one recruiting manager answered that question. ''It's mediocre,'' said another, and that seems a popular line of thinking. Each draft has ''layers'' of talent, and the very top layer this year is a small one. Where last year there were, say, 15 players any recruiter would have happily picked, this year some are nominating as few as four. Others say it's more like six, eight or 10. What happens? The consensus is, it evens out quickly, that you don't really want to be picking after 50 and that there are fewer certain prospects. ''It flatlines after 10,'' said a recruiter. ''That doesn't mean there aren't any reasonable players there, but there aren't any absolute guarantees, and everyone's list will be different. Someone's No. 11 will be someone else's 30.'' Said another: ''After 10, you could throw a blanket over 30 of them.'' Because the group is considered so even, this may be a draft where ''needs'' come into play with picks as early as the teens. Adding to that is that Melbourne and the Power will share so many early picks [they share seven of the first 18]. They might pick someone ahead of time with the last of their picks. It's a weird situation: the Port team's day will be done before Geelong starts at pick 17.
Why is there no depth? The 17-year-olds have been removed - and they generally comprise about a third of any draft. One recruiter suspects 20 would have been drafted this year. Plus, many of those 17-year-olds - the best of whom have been signed by the Gold Coast - are very, very good players. At least three - Josh Toy, Maverick Weller and Luke Russell, plus possibly Trent McKenzie and one or two more - would have been first-round picks if they were in this year's draft. Toy would have pushed for top three. ''We'd be talking about what an amazingly good first round we had if those players were in it,'' said one recruiter. This draft could see a really low number of players chosen, and it's hard to see anyone taking more than their mandatory three picks [aside from perhaps Melbourne, Essendon, Fremantle and Richmond, the first two having loaded up with top 30 picks] and possibly Geelong, which needs to bring in kids. For the first time this season, clubs can use one of those three picks to upgrade a rookie, and I suspect quite a few will take this option. We could only have 50-something fresh players drafted.
Read the article in full
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