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Let me preface this by saying that these are my opinions, and I am probably going to be proved wrong about a lot of things. I have seen as much as I can of these kids, and read a lot of information from many sources. Basically, I'm just hoping to encourage a bit more draft discussion, and showcase perhaps a differing point of view to some of the more mainstream thoughts that become gospel at this time of the year.
Please remember, these aren't where I think they will go, but more an overall best available approach. I have tried to narrow down where they would go in the second paragraph under each players name.
1. Jack Trengove - 185cm, 82kgs
Everything that can be said about Jack, has been said. Terrific versatile player, great endurance, great skills, leadership potential and senior football (with finals) experience to boot. Fairly young with a September birthday too, so plenty of development left in him. Just a smooth mover, great decision making, spots up the right options and executes well, has time and composure when other around him don't, and basically just looks the complete package. More a Hird type than say a Voss type, but a very quality kid whose going to play a lot of AFL footy.
Will end up at Melbourne.
2. Tom Scully - 182cm, 75kgs
Just his explosive running ability and work ethic make him a standout. Good inside player with the ability to burst through congestion to release himself or others outside. Good disposal (without being outstanding) by foot, and works hard to create the 2nd option after dishing the ball off.
Will end up at Melbourne.
3. Dustin Martin - 186cm, 86kgs.
Another clear standout with excellent skills, good ability inside and out. Can go forward and kick goals which is an added bonus. Can turn on the speed, and actually reminds me a bit of our #3 selection a few years ago in Ryan Griffen (they look completely different doing what they do, but have similar attributes if that makes sense?!).
Richmond will surely take him at #3.
4. Anthony Morabito - 190cm, 90kgs
Consensus as the #4 selection, and imo the 4th best prospect in the draft. Could end up being the best player, but is also perhaps more risk than the previous 3 selections. Great runner, good mark, strong body and good skills, with a keen eye for goal (do I need to reference mjp here?
). Another with senior football experience who can probably go right into the deep end.
Barring another Fremantle disaster, he will go at #4.
5. John Butcher - 197cm, 86kgs
This is where my rankings get interesting. There are a few others who probably have a greater certainty to become AFL quality players, but Butcher is still the stand out tall forward, and if sides want a quality one they will have to go early. Not the perfect player as his kicking needs some work, but he ticks a lot of boxes which I like for a big man. Agility, hands, defensive work rate and speed. Given a few full pre-seasons to improve his endurance and get his kicking sorted out, he's a very exciting prospect. With his height will be a difficult match up for opposition sides. Will take a year or 2 to develop, but should be worth wait. To me, he's the 5th best player at this stage, and potentially a match winning KF.
I think he'll be selected by either Sydney at 6 (I know they have a couple options on the go, but will Jesse White go on with it, and will Lewis Johnstone develop? Plus at #14 should be a midfield prospect still available), or if not Port will snaffle him up at either 8 or 9. North are not without a chance at #6 also, but think they'll look to sure up the midfield stocks with the early selection.
6. Kane Lucas - 188cm, 79kgs
A very versatile prospect, whose a good size, great runner and can play inside and out. He has a few potential areas to work on and tidy up including his disposal, but he is potentially one of the better, well rounded players in the draft. He's good inside and swooping on a loose ball, or standing up in a tackle, and given some space outside can run and carry the ball. Another who has senior experience, and will be prepared to work on his deficiencies.
I think Port will seriously consider him at #8 or #9 if available, as he could provide a good combination of inside/outside and fill a hole on the hbf before adding to their midfield mix. West Coast may look at him at #7, and Essendon could also be in the mix at #10 despite many reports to the contrary.
7. Jasper McMillian-Pittard - 185cm, 72kgs
My first real surprise. I have liked Jasper quite a lot for a while now, but in the last few weeks he has really shot up mine (and most others) ratings. He is just a skillful player, with solid athletic ability, great hands and great decision making. He looks a natural half back flanker or winger at AFL level. His kicking is not elite, but is still very good and with his decision making, even a non-perfect ball can go to advantage. His leadership is very good and is a real student of the game which increases his standing.
I think the Crows will seriously consider him at #13 (they love Geelong boys to and have recent success with Dangerfield). I think if available, we'll seriously consider him at #15, and the Swans and Port are both not without a chance at #14 and #16 respectively.
8. Ben Cunnington - 186cm, 85kgs
Another of the inside variety of which there is an abundance this year. A real professional who can win his own ball and snag a mark overhead. I have a few question marks about his decision making, awareness and effectiveness under pressure, so he has dropped down a little in my rankings. Sometimes he can look sensational in all areas, but at other times can let himself down and seem a bit panicked. He has a lot to work with though, and with his work ethic, should become a good to very good AFL player. He's ready to go also, which will appeal to a few clubs.
North at #5 seems to be the go, however he could just as easily go anywhere from #5 - #14, but probably somewhere before #9. Port and Sydney are others, and I think Essendon would be very keen at #10 if he were available.
9. Aaron Black - 193cm, 78kgs
I must preface this by saying I have not been able to access much of Black, so am basing a substantial amount of my info on what I've read and heard, mainly from one source in particular who seems to know a bit about Aaron. He seems the next most likely to succeed KPF in the draft, with great hands, speed and senior experience. He can play a variety of positions, and could play a flanker role early on whilst his body develops for the rigors of a key position role. Another who could end up the best player in the draft, and with the success of recent basketball converts like Tippett, is likely to go early.
Port are certainly in the mix at #8 or #9, especially if they miss out on Butcher, but could easily grab both talls and a mid at #16. Melbourne at #11, and Carlton at #12 also seem likely options. The Crows probably wouldn't, but Sydney at #14 could if they go small at #6. I don't think we will get a look in.
10. Gary Rohan - 186cm, 79kgs
Will probably go much higher and end up being the best player, showing me up for the idiot I am, but I just think he doesn't quite get enough of the ball at this stage. His pace is electrifying, his skills aren't bad and he can jump over small buildings. His consistency and ability to continually influence a game are the weaknesses. Not sure where his best position will end up being either, as a mid-sized forward role will probably see him gather 15-20 touches and a few chase downs, but perhaps not impact a game as much as someone with his potential should. I'd really like to see him in a backline role like Harbrow did this season.
Sydney are a big chance at #6, and the Crows would certainly be interested if he was available at #13. Not sure if Port would take him, and don't think Carlton would want to go with another potentially low possession small-mid sized forward after taking Yarren last year. Sydney would also be a chance at #14.
11. Luke Tapscott - 180cm, 86kgs
Quite a few people have him slipping a bit at this stage for various reasons, but he's a fairly skillful kid with a punishing boot and a strong work ethic. He played mainly as a forward, but I'd really like to see him developed like Shannon Hurn, off the back half. His booming kick and serious body size means he could play senior football in 2010, although probably needs to have a solid pre-season to increase his running power. He's a little short, and perhaps a little top heavy, but it's a short draft on the whole. If he can improve his core and leg strength, he may end up being a 70m kick! I'm slightly biased towards the SA kids, but this kid is a good a chance of making it as any of the others remaining, and I like him alot.
I think he's a good chance to go to Sydney at #14, but don't discount the Crows at #13 either. Port at #16 could certainly be in the mix, and I think he'll certainly go to WC at #22 or #23 at the latest, but most likely earlier.
12. Lewis Jetta - 178cm, 73kgs
A skinny, hard/fast running player with good skills and decision making. He still needs some further development with his body, but he's never going to be built in the Pickett mould. He could play a variety of positions at AFL, with the wing and half back probably being his best suited areas. Played senior footy all year and was one of the better players against the SANFL State side, kicking a few goals in that game. He could become a very polished, dashing wing or half back at AFL level, and is again a very good chance of succeeding at AFL level.
West Coast at #7 are definitely in the mix, but I think Adelaide at #13, Sydney at #14, Bulldogs at #15 and even Port at #16 are all chances of grabbing him. Would provide an immediate impact, and add some zip and run and carry to any side that snares him. If WC or the Crows got him and developed his body like they are known to do...then he could be anything.
13. Daniel Talia - 194cm, 89kgs
The most highly rated KP defender in the draft, although may end up a little more in the Everitt/Rance type mould of being more a tall defender, who can play tall or small and who can run off his opponent too. Others say he's more a 'genuine tall', but I'm not convinced (yet probably wrong). He can make some poo decisions, but can also get a ball in some congestion and weigh up the right option by hand or foot, so I think generally he's not too bad.
I think Melbourne at #11 are not without a shot if the other talls are gone. Carlton at #12 is a strong possibility too, and I think if he slipped to either Sydney or us, either would take him at #14 or #15.
14. Callum Bartlett - 182cm, 82kgs
Another who is rapidly rising up the ranks in recent times. A very good kick of the ball, very strong and very quick when he puts the foot down. If he hadn't had the leg injury and had another full year of development he probably would be rated a bit higher, but certainly has a lot of room for development. His work ethic has been demonstrated by his rigorous rehab program. More of an outside/inside mix, but can still win his own ball and is certainly a good enough size to become a very good inside player who can use his acceleration to burst from congestion before kicking a long, left footed ball.
I'm not sure where he sits in the rankings, but Geelong are apparently very keen at #17. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go late first round, with possibly the Crows and Dogs other chances. Could also be a good chance between #18-#21, and West Coast have also shown a willingness to grab a player whose ratings are injury effected (Tom Swift) so if he makes it to #22/#23 could go there too.
Please remember, these aren't where I think they will go, but more an overall best available approach. I have tried to narrow down where they would go in the second paragraph under each players name.
1. Jack Trengove - 185cm, 82kgs
Everything that can be said about Jack, has been said. Terrific versatile player, great endurance, great skills, leadership potential and senior football (with finals) experience to boot. Fairly young with a September birthday too, so plenty of development left in him. Just a smooth mover, great decision making, spots up the right options and executes well, has time and composure when other around him don't, and basically just looks the complete package. More a Hird type than say a Voss type, but a very quality kid whose going to play a lot of AFL footy.
Will end up at Melbourne.
2. Tom Scully - 182cm, 75kgs
Just his explosive running ability and work ethic make him a standout. Good inside player with the ability to burst through congestion to release himself or others outside. Good disposal (without being outstanding) by foot, and works hard to create the 2nd option after dishing the ball off.
Will end up at Melbourne.
3. Dustin Martin - 186cm, 86kgs.
Another clear standout with excellent skills, good ability inside and out. Can go forward and kick goals which is an added bonus. Can turn on the speed, and actually reminds me a bit of our #3 selection a few years ago in Ryan Griffen (they look completely different doing what they do, but have similar attributes if that makes sense?!).
Richmond will surely take him at #3.
4. Anthony Morabito - 190cm, 90kgs
Consensus as the #4 selection, and imo the 4th best prospect in the draft. Could end up being the best player, but is also perhaps more risk than the previous 3 selections. Great runner, good mark, strong body and good skills, with a keen eye for goal (do I need to reference mjp here?
). Another with senior football experience who can probably go right into the deep end.Barring another Fremantle disaster, he will go at #4.
5. John Butcher - 197cm, 86kgs
This is where my rankings get interesting. There are a few others who probably have a greater certainty to become AFL quality players, but Butcher is still the stand out tall forward, and if sides want a quality one they will have to go early. Not the perfect player as his kicking needs some work, but he ticks a lot of boxes which I like for a big man. Agility, hands, defensive work rate and speed. Given a few full pre-seasons to improve his endurance and get his kicking sorted out, he's a very exciting prospect. With his height will be a difficult match up for opposition sides. Will take a year or 2 to develop, but should be worth wait. To me, he's the 5th best player at this stage, and potentially a match winning KF.
I think he'll be selected by either Sydney at 6 (I know they have a couple options on the go, but will Jesse White go on with it, and will Lewis Johnstone develop? Plus at #14 should be a midfield prospect still available), or if not Port will snaffle him up at either 8 or 9. North are not without a chance at #6 also, but think they'll look to sure up the midfield stocks with the early selection.
6. Kane Lucas - 188cm, 79kgs
A very versatile prospect, whose a good size, great runner and can play inside and out. He has a few potential areas to work on and tidy up including his disposal, but he is potentially one of the better, well rounded players in the draft. He's good inside and swooping on a loose ball, or standing up in a tackle, and given some space outside can run and carry the ball. Another who has senior experience, and will be prepared to work on his deficiencies.
I think Port will seriously consider him at #8 or #9 if available, as he could provide a good combination of inside/outside and fill a hole on the hbf before adding to their midfield mix. West Coast may look at him at #7, and Essendon could also be in the mix at #10 despite many reports to the contrary.
7. Jasper McMillian-Pittard - 185cm, 72kgs
My first real surprise. I have liked Jasper quite a lot for a while now, but in the last few weeks he has really shot up mine (and most others) ratings. He is just a skillful player, with solid athletic ability, great hands and great decision making. He looks a natural half back flanker or winger at AFL level. His kicking is not elite, but is still very good and with his decision making, even a non-perfect ball can go to advantage. His leadership is very good and is a real student of the game which increases his standing.
I think the Crows will seriously consider him at #13 (they love Geelong boys to and have recent success with Dangerfield). I think if available, we'll seriously consider him at #15, and the Swans and Port are both not without a chance at #14 and #16 respectively.
8. Ben Cunnington - 186cm, 85kgs
Another of the inside variety of which there is an abundance this year. A real professional who can win his own ball and snag a mark overhead. I have a few question marks about his decision making, awareness and effectiveness under pressure, so he has dropped down a little in my rankings. Sometimes he can look sensational in all areas, but at other times can let himself down and seem a bit panicked. He has a lot to work with though, and with his work ethic, should become a good to very good AFL player. He's ready to go also, which will appeal to a few clubs.
North at #5 seems to be the go, however he could just as easily go anywhere from #5 - #14, but probably somewhere before #9. Port and Sydney are others, and I think Essendon would be very keen at #10 if he were available.
9. Aaron Black - 193cm, 78kgs
I must preface this by saying I have not been able to access much of Black, so am basing a substantial amount of my info on what I've read and heard, mainly from one source in particular who seems to know a bit about Aaron. He seems the next most likely to succeed KPF in the draft, with great hands, speed and senior experience. He can play a variety of positions, and could play a flanker role early on whilst his body develops for the rigors of a key position role. Another who could end up the best player in the draft, and with the success of recent basketball converts like Tippett, is likely to go early.
Port are certainly in the mix at #8 or #9, especially if they miss out on Butcher, but could easily grab both talls and a mid at #16. Melbourne at #11, and Carlton at #12 also seem likely options. The Crows probably wouldn't, but Sydney at #14 could if they go small at #6. I don't think we will get a look in.
10. Gary Rohan - 186cm, 79kgs
Will probably go much higher and end up being the best player, showing me up for the idiot I am, but I just think he doesn't quite get enough of the ball at this stage. His pace is electrifying, his skills aren't bad and he can jump over small buildings. His consistency and ability to continually influence a game are the weaknesses. Not sure where his best position will end up being either, as a mid-sized forward role will probably see him gather 15-20 touches and a few chase downs, but perhaps not impact a game as much as someone with his potential should. I'd really like to see him in a backline role like Harbrow did this season.
Sydney are a big chance at #6, and the Crows would certainly be interested if he was available at #13. Not sure if Port would take him, and don't think Carlton would want to go with another potentially low possession small-mid sized forward after taking Yarren last year. Sydney would also be a chance at #14.
11. Luke Tapscott - 180cm, 86kgs
Quite a few people have him slipping a bit at this stage for various reasons, but he's a fairly skillful kid with a punishing boot and a strong work ethic. He played mainly as a forward, but I'd really like to see him developed like Shannon Hurn, off the back half. His booming kick and serious body size means he could play senior football in 2010, although probably needs to have a solid pre-season to increase his running power. He's a little short, and perhaps a little top heavy, but it's a short draft on the whole. If he can improve his core and leg strength, he may end up being a 70m kick! I'm slightly biased towards the SA kids, but this kid is a good a chance of making it as any of the others remaining, and I like him alot.
I think he's a good chance to go to Sydney at #14, but don't discount the Crows at #13 either. Port at #16 could certainly be in the mix, and I think he'll certainly go to WC at #22 or #23 at the latest, but most likely earlier.
12. Lewis Jetta - 178cm, 73kgs
A skinny, hard/fast running player with good skills and decision making. He still needs some further development with his body, but he's never going to be built in the Pickett mould. He could play a variety of positions at AFL, with the wing and half back probably being his best suited areas. Played senior footy all year and was one of the better players against the SANFL State side, kicking a few goals in that game. He could become a very polished, dashing wing or half back at AFL level, and is again a very good chance of succeeding at AFL level.
West Coast at #7 are definitely in the mix, but I think Adelaide at #13, Sydney at #14, Bulldogs at #15 and even Port at #16 are all chances of grabbing him. Would provide an immediate impact, and add some zip and run and carry to any side that snares him. If WC or the Crows got him and developed his body like they are known to do...then he could be anything.
13. Daniel Talia - 194cm, 89kgs
The most highly rated KP defender in the draft, although may end up a little more in the Everitt/Rance type mould of being more a tall defender, who can play tall or small and who can run off his opponent too. Others say he's more a 'genuine tall', but I'm not convinced (yet probably wrong). He can make some poo decisions, but can also get a ball in some congestion and weigh up the right option by hand or foot, so I think generally he's not too bad.
I think Melbourne at #11 are not without a shot if the other talls are gone. Carlton at #12 is a strong possibility too, and I think if he slipped to either Sydney or us, either would take him at #14 or #15.
14. Callum Bartlett - 182cm, 82kgs
Another who is rapidly rising up the ranks in recent times. A very good kick of the ball, very strong and very quick when he puts the foot down. If he hadn't had the leg injury and had another full year of development he probably would be rated a bit higher, but certainly has a lot of room for development. His work ethic has been demonstrated by his rigorous rehab program. More of an outside/inside mix, but can still win his own ball and is certainly a good enough size to become a very good inside player who can use his acceleration to burst from congestion before kicking a long, left footed ball.
I'm not sure where he sits in the rankings, but Geelong are apparently very keen at #17. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go late first round, with possibly the Crows and Dogs other chances. Could also be a good chance between #18-#21, and West Coast have also shown a willingness to grab a player whose ratings are injury effected (Tom Swift) so if he makes it to #22/#23 could go there too.
Some pretty far off the mark/completely wrong calls by me in this thread alone....
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