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TBBs First Round
I will preface this by saying I don't see a lot of junior football, particularly this year. I only saw bits and pieces of the Championships, so most of this is based around what I've read. Descriptions will be brief because I ran out of time and I changed this around a couple of times. It still seems quite open which is unusual, but in any case, this is my effort.
#1 GWS Lachie Whitfield
Why: Straight forward this one. Whitfield is arguably not the best in the draft pool, but he's the safest pick there is and because of that, a pretty clear number one pick.
#2 GWS Jonathan ORourke
Why: Reports are suggesting that GWS are firming on O'Rourke with pick #2 or pick #3. It's not difficult to see why; O'Rourke is effective on the inside and the outside, he moves well, he's quick and he's got good skills.
#3 GWS Lachlan Plowman
Why: GWS need to fix their back half. Their midfield looks pretty solid, and they have a few options up forward, so with that in mind Plowman makes sense. He won't be the KPD they need, but he should be a very dangerous attacking third tall.
#4 Melbourne Jimmy Toumpas
Why: They take the slider. Dogs fans will be bitter, myself included, but it is what it is. Whilst they really like Wines, the reports again suggest they'd take Toumpas if available. From their point of view it makes sense; Toumpas is quick and highly skilled.
#5 Western Bulldogs Troy Menzel
Why: Bit of a risky pick given his knees, but on talent alone Menzel is right up there and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him emerge as the best from the draft. Of course his injury concerns could see that go the other way. Don't be surprised if we take the safe bet option in Wines.
#6 Western Bulldogs Sam Mayes
Why: The urge to pick Wines must be strong and it's a great possibility, but Brett Anderson also suggest we may overlook him. Mayes is the guy that would surely attract us. He's somebody I see who can 'do it all', even if he isn't yet an established mid. Super quick with great skills.
#7 Port Adelaide Brodie Grundy
Why: Not long ago Grundy was a media lock for pick #3, but it seems likely he will slide to Port Adelaide. Whilst they have quite a few pressing needs, I think they take Grundy who can play ruck and probably KPF as he develops.
#8 Brisbane Jackson Macrae
Why: Must be tempted to go tall, but the options available would be a bit of a reach. For that reason, I have them taking Macrae who would be a great foil to their current set-up. Very agile/slippery, with skills and goal sense.
#9 Richmond Oliver Wines
Why: Might be surprised that Wines reaches them, but unlikely to let him slip an further. Their midfield is looking unstoppable with the perfect mix of grunt and run. Wines is a big guy with a great ability to win the ball. Hits targets and can impact on the outside, but it's not a strength.
#10 Essendon Joe Daniher
Why: F/S and likely top two pick if it wasn't for that. Steal.
#11 Carlton Nick Vlastuin
Why: The Blues have a few needs and might be tempted to take somebody like Jaksch, but Vlastuin would be hard to pass. A born leader who is versatile; he can play midfield and he can play off a HBF. It wouldn't surprise to see Vlastuin taken earlier than here.
#12 GWS Aidan Corr
Why: Difficult to know what GWS will do if they take Plowman, but I have them going for another KPD, given Plowman is mroe of a third tall. Taking Corr sets up their back half nicely and whilst he might take some time to develop, he's a solid option. Perhaps a bit of a bolter; Clurey could go here.
#13 Gold Coast Josh Simpson
Why: Apparently Clayton is very keen on Simpson. Not sure he's exactly what they need, but he's a super talent. Blistering pace, takes the game on and has great skills. He could be anything, but is a little bit of a risk, with a couple of questions hanging over his head in regards to attitude.
#14 GWS Taylor Garner
Why: Back to taking a versatile mid/forward and there's none better at this point than Garner who could be a serious player. He's a good size and has a good leap/set of hands. Looks like a natural forward, but can push into the midfield and win his own ball too.
#15 North Melbourne Jake Stringer
Why: North's list is quite well balanced. Maybe they take another key forward, but probably unlikely. Where Stringer will fall has created much debate and it's still an unknown, but he would suit NM with an ability to play forward and push into the midfield. He would be a great alternative to the Petrie/Hansen/Tarrant/Thomas set-up.
#16 Geelong Kristian Jaksch
Why: Another club hard to take a read on. Maybe an inside mid, maybe a key defender. I have them taking Jaksch who can play at both ends which should appeal to them if he lasts until here. Pods is almost finished and they have little else up forward.
#17 Fremantle Mason Shaw
Why: They need to find a replacement for Pavlich very quickly given they have nobody on their list capable of currently doing so. Shaw is no Pavlich, but he's a genuine FF who can kick goals. Huge kid too, so may develop quickly, before Pav retires.
#18 Collingwood Tim OBrien
Why: They need a key forward with Dawes gone, Lynch nearing the end and Paine an unknown/not a true KPP. O'Brien is an exciting talent who jumps at the ball and can take a strong mark. He's quick and agile for his size too. Wouldn't be surprised to see him taken earlier, but he will need time to develop.
#19 Collingwood Tom Clurey
Why: Tarrant's gone whilst Brown is constantly battling injury and form. Another key defender is needed, and Clurey is best available at this point. Defends pretty well and could go higher than this.
#20 Adelaide Ben Kennedy
Why: They almost took him last year, so I suspect their interest would still be strong. They might go for a KPF, but outside of that, Kennedy makes sense. Homegrown talent who is quick and skilled, despite his lack of size being a problem.
#21 Collingwood Jesse Lonergan
Why: Probably time for the Pies to find another hard inside mid with Ball possibly nearing the end. Lonergan is a massive kid and could impact after a strong pre-season, IMO. One of the guys I like most in this draft. Decent enough skills and wins plenty of his own ball.
#22 Western Bulldogs Tim Membrey
Why: With O'Brien and Jaksch gone, ditto Corr and Clurey, I expect we will go after a medium sized forward given our woes in that area of the ground. Membrey has opinio divided; plays like a KPF, but isn't one, and may struggle with this at the top level. He is aggressive though, and should appeal to us.
#23 Sydney Nathan Hrovat
Why: Best available. Hrovat slips a bit because of his size but he does most things well. With a couple of Sydney's inside mids older than they are younger, now's a good time to find another gem. Lonergan would be of great interest but Hrovat is a solid choice.
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