Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Mitchell's deadly knee made contact with Fyfe's thigh which caused him some ongoing issues, but I wouldn't have thought that would be related to his back.

This is a little off topic, but heard an amazing stat regarding Fyfe the other day. Only 2 players (100 game minimum) in VFL/AFL history average over 1 Brownlow Vote per game, Fyfe and 1930s champ Haydn Bunton - talk about an exclusive club!

[Twodogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

This is a little off topic, but heard an amazing stat regarding Fyfe the other day. Only 2 players (100 game minimum) in VFL/AFL history average over 1 Brownlow Vote per game, Fyfe and 1930s champ Haydn Bunton - talk about an exclusive club!

Wow. I think Bunton won 3 of his first 4 seasons.so Fyfe must have been scoring high and not winning.

[Axe Man]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

There's a list of all time Brownlow votes that you can re-order by average here if you are interested: http://afltables.com/afl/brownlow/totals0.html

It's no surprise that a high average usually results in 1 or more Brownlow medals. The exceptions to that trend are interesting - Harold Bray (whoever he was) has the 4th highest average of all time (0.88 - 106 votes from 121 games) but didn't win a Brownlow. Of the current players Joel Selwood and Sam Mitchell both have exceptional averages but have not quite managed to win a Charlie.

[Bornadog]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Of the current players Joel Selwood and Sam Mitchell both have exceptional averages but have not quite managed to win a Charlie.

That's because they are pricks.

[Greystache]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Of the current players Joel Selwood and Sam Mitchell both have exceptional averages but have not quite managed to win a Charlie.

If Jobe Watson is found guilty by CAS Mitchell might still win one (along with Cotchin)

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

If Jobe Watson is found guilty by CAS Mitchell might still win one (along with Cotchin)

Boy is that a can of worms. If Watson is ultimately found to have taken illegal enhancing substances (he has virtually admitted as much) systematically throughout his Brownlow year, how can he possibly be allowed to retain it?

The Bummer fans will be apoplectic

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

If not the competition he will probably grab a woman by the throat, or a child, or a puppy...

Mate, you stole my thunder.

[1eyedog]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

If not the competition he will probably grab a woman by the throat, or a child, or a puppy...

Was thinking the same thing as I was writing it.

[Twodogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Mitchell's deadly knee made contact with Fyfe's thigh which caused him some ongoing issues, but I wouldn't have thought that would be related to his back.

I didn't know to take it literally when they said he had a deadly left leg

[LostDoggy]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/01/20/numbers-game-afl-teams-rise-fall-2016/

Betjam are one of the leading AFL analysts. Last year, pre season, they tipped WCE as a top 4 team and Bulldogs as a top 8 team.

They base their predictions on algorithms which take in the draw, player movements, results over recent years and an historical analysis of list profile and performance.

Their preliminary 2016 ladder is:

Freo 76
Hawth 72
WCE 72
Bulldogs 64
Port 60
Adel 52
Geel 52
Rich 52

Syd 48
GCS 44
North 44
Coll 36
GWS 36
StK 24
Ess 24
Melb 16
Carl 12
Bris 8

Just came across another prediction for the year ahead by an economist applying mathematical principles. He comes up with not-dissimilar results to TipBetPro, with Freo on top with 17 wins and Dogs 6th with 14.

Like any analysis, it has it's limitations, but an interesting take on the year ahead.

[Twodogs]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Bookies tend to get it right.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

With the opening rounds of the NAB challenge, the thing that seems apparent to me, is that the interchange cap is going to have an impact on how teams play out games.

So far we have seen some teams really trying to meet the new limits while others have ignored them.

What I see happening is that those sides with limited depth are really going to struggle late in games.

This might be a detriment to us as a young side,but our ability to refresh players by using the entire list as we did in 2015, should compensate for that.

When we look at teams such as Hawthorn, Freo and Sydney with an elite midfield group, we also see larger numbers of unproven/untried talent.

This is particularly true at Sydney and I believe they will be the big sliders.

[Ghost Dog]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Good observation Bulldog Joe. I'm hoping we can learn to control the pace of the game this season a bit more. Our frenetic mayhem style may have to be tweaked.

[Greystache]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

Sliders

Sydney- Looked to be out of legs by the end of last season and have done little to improve their stocks other than bringing in draftees who are unlikely to improve them this season. Key defenders are a big concern, the fact they picked up Talia speaks volumes.

Norf- Have been an average home and away team whose final ladder position has flattered them after some good finals wins. Still rely heavily on aging veterans and their midfield is very one paced. Think they'll just miss the 8 which will mean no easy finals kill against a Richmond type to improve their final position.

Fremantle- Midfield still looks powerful but their defence will be tested further without McPharlin, and their ability to kick goals looks likely to be their Achilles heal again. Might still make the top 4 but the creaks are getting louder.

Stallers

Collingwood- Every year they're Feb champions who fail to deliver and this year is no exception. They have some young talent but it's mostly unproven and the sprint to the finishing line will be a crawl yet again. Expect them to finish about 12th but Buckley to survive based on some unseen improvement he's supposedly produced, and the media will have them penciled in for the top four again in 2017

Richmond- Mentally weak team who will ride a few waves of momentum during the season and crash on the sand again week one of the finals. Don't have players with the character to lift for the big occasion. 5-8th again

Bulldogs- Will improve in some areas but probably will win a game or two less in absolute terms. A year of consolidation and development with a very young team. A finals win would be a big tick.

Hawthorn- They're old and they're losing players to retirement but they know how to win when it matters. Will be top 4 again and the team to beat sadly.

West Coast- Won't do it as easy as last season but will win enough games to make top 4. Hard to beat at home and will have the umpires on site to get them over the line if the game should get tight. Just need to sneak enough wins on the road.

Port- Expected to make the climb back up this year but I suspect it will only be an extra position or two. Will probably finish 7-10 but won't be the challenger many think.

Melbourne- Are shit, have been shit, and look to still be shit in the future. Roos is just trying to minimise the hurt while protecting his legacy and cashing his cheques.

Carlton- If it was possible to fall lower they would. Would struggle to beat Box Hill or Williamstown

Gold Coast- A rabble on the field and off. Have some talent but don't work as a team consistently and need a total clean out of coaches and support staff and start again. Lost some quality player and replaced them with mature duds. Lots of pain ahead.

Essendon- Finished the season rock bottom and and that's where they'll stay. It will take years to un-Hird them, even longer with Worsfold coaching. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the ride, especially if they can snatch another preseason win.

GWS- Expected to climb but I don't see happening. Have lots of potential but don't deliver on it often enough. Lots of strut without much substance. Another year of suposedly being a young team about to explode. Spot light will start to shine on Leon Cameron.

Brisbane- If there wasn't Carlton, Gold Coast, and Essendon kicking around you'd suggest the humane thing to do would be to put them down. They'll actually fly under the radar finishing bottom 4.

Climbers-

Geelong- Being tipped as a premiership threat after selling the farm for immediate success. I don't see it happening and suggest a good run will see them in the bottom of the 8 and making up the numbers.

St Kilda- They'll leap frog a couple of bad teams but it's a dead cat bounce. They'll bottom out in the next year or two as the senior players currently carrying them drop off and can't be replaced.

Adelaide- Have lost Dangerfield but I don't think it will affect them as much as many think. Expect them to take a step forward and finish top 4.

[GVGjr]

Re: Ladder sliders, risers, stalling 2016?

I agree with Grey's comments on Adelaide. I think they will have a very good season