Your Final 8 Prediction

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

I like looking at www.liveladders.com for their statistical ranking.

They have us 4th playing Hawthorn in the 1st QF. Win means prelim at MCG vs Adelaide/Geelong.

Loss means SF vs GWS at MCG which we should win. Then facing Adelaide/Geelong in a prelim.

I think Hawthorn get into the GF in any event. So the predicted run is 1. Hawthorn 2. GWS (if req) 3. Adelaide/Geelong 4. Hawthorn

If we are fit and play to our best, then it's not insurmountable on the prediction supplied on this site.

[comrade]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Prelim vs either Adelaide or Geelong. Yippee.

[Remi Moses]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Thankfully the players haven't lived through our pain of finals heartache .
Interesting this year that finish top 4 and win first final you'll have played one game in 3 weeks .
Not sure if that's beneficial

[Twodogs]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Thankfully the players haven't lived through our pain of finals heartache .
Interesting this year that finish top 4 and win first final you'll have played one game in 3 weeks .
Not sure if that's beneficial

It's not ideal. Silly idea by the AFL having a week off before the finals start.

[Eastdog]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Thankfully the players haven't lived through our pain of finals heartache .
Interesting this year that finish top 4 and win first final you'll have played one game in 3 weeks .
Not sure if that's beneficial

Yes my initial thinking is that it is good in that you aren't playing very week and you can rest up players who may be sore/injuried etc but if you think about it more you definitely want to keep playing and not stop especially if we have the momentum.

If they are going to have the week break before the finals then really the Round 23 fixture should have been already locked in as it wouldn't make a difference now for final teams whatever days they played.

[Murphy'sLore]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Maybe I'm missing something but it seems illogical to prevent one team from resting players by forcing every team to rest players.

[Bornadog]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

AFL never think when they change things.

Round 23
Rest
Final - Win
Rest
Prelim
GF

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

The website above has updated. They have Hawthorn & Adelaide fighting for top spot, but they give it to Hawthorn. Then all on equal points but on percentage (2) Geelong (2% difference) (3) Adelaide (4) Bulldogs.

So I think T&T may want to root for Hawthorn for the rest of the year. Them at the MCG is a better option than Adelaide at AO.

[comrade]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Getting Hawks first week means we avoid them in a prelim.

Winning week 1 and getting an interstate team in a prelim would be ideal.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

Getting Hawks first week means we avoid them in a prelim.

Winning week 1 and getting an interstate team in a prelim would be ideal.

As long as it's not Adelaide. Im not sure if I have the courage to front up to another cut throat final at the MCG against Adelaide...

[comrade]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

As long as it's not Adelaide. Im not sure if I have the courage to front up to another cut throat final at the MCG against Adelaide...

What better way to slay the dragon? Would be a suitable stepping stone to the ultimate fairy tale finishing.

Imagine the build up!

[LostDoggy]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

This article gives a fairly thorough statistical analysis of the current state of play. Has us as a 15% chance of top 4 (38% chance before last game) and most probable finishing position of 6th.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jul/25/matter-of-stats-simulating-the-likely-afl-finalists-and-their-september-fate

[Bornadog]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

My new prediction

Hawks
Cats
Crows
GWS
Swans
Dogs
Wcoast
North

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

My new prediction

Hawks
Cats
Crows
GWS
Swans
Dogs
Wcoast
North

My thinking is similar. The trouble is it looks like all of Cats, Crows, GWS and swans will be separated by % only!

Dogs v Eagles looking likely so it's vital for us to win 4 out of our 5 to ensure we play them in Melbourne. It's also possible with 3 wins but then we rely on the eagles losing their last 3 to GWS, Hawks and Crows.

8th will be taken by the winner of the saints and north this saturday night. Massive game

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Your Final 8 Prediction

R20:

Hawks def Melb (Hawks 64 pts)
Sydney def Port (Sydney 56 pts)
GWS def Suns (GWS 56 pts)
Dogs def North (Dogs 52 pts, North 48 pts)
Adelaide def Brisbane (Adelaide 56 pts)
Geelong def Essendon (Geelong 56 pts)
WCE def Freo (WCE 52 pts)

R21:

Dogs def Collingwood (Dogs 56 pts)
Hawks def North (Hawks 68 pts, North 48 pts)
Adelaide def Freo (Adelaide 60 pts)
Geelong def Richmond (Geelong 60 pts)
Sydney def St Kilda (Sydney 60 pts)
GWS def WCE (GWS 60 pts, WCE 52 pts)

R22:

WCE def Hawks (WCE 56 pts, Hawks 68 pts)
North lose to Sydney (North 48 pts, Sydney 64 pts)
GWS def Freo (GWS 64 points)
Power def Adelaide (Adelaide 60 pts)
Geelong def Brisbane (Geelong 64 pts)
Dogs def Essendon (Dogs 60 pts)

R23:

Geelong def Melbourne (Geelong 68 pts)
Freo def Dogs (Dogs 60 pts) (Pavlich factor)
Adelaide def WCE (Adelaide 64 points, WCE 56 pts)
North def GWS (North 52 pts, GWS 64 pts)
Sydney def Richmond (Sydney 68 points)
Hawks def Collingwood (Hawks 72 points)

For:

1. Hawks 72
2. Geelong 68
3. Sydney 68
4. GWS 64
5. Adelaide 64
6. Dogs 60
7. WCE 56
8. North 52

For Dogs vs West Coast Eagles at the MCG (not our home ground Etihad). WCE poor recent record at the MCG would be a good factor in our favour. With percentage not a factor if we level with a team (assuming North aren't equal with us) we just need to get one win ahead and stay one win ahead of WCE = win at least 3 of the 4 and WCE to go 2 & 2.