2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

& everytime I have played with the ladder predictor for the last 4 months It finishes with Collingwood playing Geelong in the GF.

[Sedat]

Re: 2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

The likelihood of that happening is what... 100/1?

We'll start about $2.30 this week v Essendon, $1.20 v Port, $4.00 v Hawthorn and about $1.60 v Freo. I don't know how to calculate rolling odds but you'll also need to factor in the likes of Essendon winning no more than 1 out of 3, Freo winning no more than 1 out of 4, North winning no more than 2 out of 3, and Melbourne winning no more than 3 out of 4. All of this is on top of us winning 4 out of 4. Perversely, because we play both Essendon and Freo, we will be big players in shaping the 8. But in terms of actually making the 8, where it all falls down is against the Hawks, who will have Carlton and West Coke breathing down their necks for the double chance. Hawks will have to have an absolute shocker for us to get over them. Also the personnel we have on the park will have a huge bearing - if Morris and Cooney don't get up this week I can't see us beating Essendon at Etihad.

Sad thing is if Goodes kicked what he should have and Razor Ray decided to let the players be the centre of attention instead of himself, we'd be a game out of the 8 behind Freo (and 2 points behind Essendon with a game in hand) with a better percentage than Freo and with our destiny completely in our hands.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: 2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

We'll start about $2.30 this week v Essendon, $1.20 v Port, $4.00 v Hawthorn and about $1.60 v Freo.

I'm going to try to be a maths wiz nerd, I believe you just keep multipying. For example tossing a coin, heads would be priced at $2 (agency cut aside of course!). The chances of tossing heads twice is $4 (2 x 2) as it is a 1 in 4 chance of occuring (heads/heads, tails/tails. t/h and h/t).

Using your odds, we are would be paying $17.67 to win all four. Using non agency cut odds though, I would have us at about $8 to beat the Hawks. That would take our price of winning 4 in a row to $35.33.

[1eyedog]

Re: 2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

We'll start about $2.30 this week v Essendon, $1.20 v Port, $4.00 v Hawthorn and about $1.60 v Freo. I don't know how to calculate rolling odds but you'll also need to factor in the likes of Essendon winning no more than 1 out of 3, Freo winning no more than 1 out of 4, North winning no more than 2 out of 3, and Melbourne winning no more than 3 out of 4. All of this is on top of us winning 4 out of 4. Perversely, because we play both Essendon and Freo, we will be big players in shaping the 8. But in terms of actually making the 8, where it all falls down is against the Hawks, who will have Carlton and West Coke breathing down their necks for the double chance. Hawks will have to have an absolute shocker for us to get over them. Also the personnel we have on the park will have a huge bearing - if Morris and Cooney don't get up this week I can't see us beating Essendon at Etihad.

Sad thing is if Goodes kicked what he should have and Razor Ray decided to let the players be the centre of attention instead of himself, we'd be a game out of the 8 behind Freo (and 2 points behind Essendon with a game in hand) with a better percentage than Freo and with our destiny completely in our hands.

Please refer to the The Tragic Comedy Thread

[Sedat]

Re: 2011 AFL Ladder Predictor

I'm going to try to be a maths wiz nerd, I believe you just keep multipying. For example tossing a coin, heads would be priced at $2 (agency cut aside of course!). The chances of tossing heads twice is $4 (2 x 2) as it is a 1 in 4 chance of occuring (heads/heads, tails/tails. t/h and h/t).

Using your odds, we are would be paying $17.67 to win all four. Using non agency cut odds though, I would have us at about $8 to beat the Hawks. That would take our price of winning 4 in a row to $35.33.

Add in the odds of all the other results falling our way and they would surely blow out to over 50/1. If we lose this week we might end up being double-figure odds against the Hawks, as you can bet your bottom dollar we'll book in most of our key players for post-season surgery.