2025 Profile

[Danjul]

We must just view football differently. Because to me, if you are within a couple goals, that means tha the margin of victory (or loss) is incredibly small. In a 360 degree game with an egg-shaped ball and all sorts of weather conditions, are you telling me that that 2 accurate shots at goal or the ball bouncing a little more in our favour couldn't h swung …….

……. then you need a lot more to go in your favour. But a 1 goal loss to the Pies? A 2 goal loss to the Suns? Even a 3 goal loss to the Cats and Freo? In those games, it wouldn't have taken much for those losses to be wins.

And that's without adding the Bont + Darcy combo to the mix which I think would increase our chances of turning things in our favour even more!

Saying “a one goal loss to the pies” distorts the reality of the night. We had a good early lead and and after the half way mark of the first quarter Collingwood had two scoring shots for each bulldog score. We were consistently outplayed by a well drilled running team (with helpful umpires).

After that we got into a habit of surrendering leads where we regressed to over handballing. Against Geelong we chose handball until turnover as our battle cry. Fortunately a better brand of footy emerged after halftime . Every time that attacking mind set has been observed we’ve looked like genuine contenders.

But the top teams know that our first reaction is to handball so they play close to capitalise on the inevitable turnovers. They pressure the players near the one with the ball. If we set up for diagonal forward release kicks we should get a top four finish.

[FrediKanoute]

Not really, no.

Our percentage is big because we massacre the bottom sides and it skews our stats.

Surely at some point we have to actually prove it on the grass...read my post about the last couple of minutes from Friday night...I have zero faith right now. If we cant win a home and away game, how in goodness name are we going to win a final.

As for the "If we play the game 10 times" quote - we've played SIX games against sides in the 8 and won ZERO. So I'm really unsure what you would consider a 'good share'...zero from six is where we are right now.

The silver lining is that we have been in all of those games and not blown away.

[jeemak]

Not really, no.

Our percentage is big because we massacre the bottom sides and it skews our stats.

Surely at some point we have to actually prove it on the grass...read my post about the last couple of minutes from Friday night...I have zero faith right now. If we cant win a home and away game, how in goodness name are we going to win a final.

As for the "If we play the game 10 times" quote - we've played SIX games against sides in the 8 and won ZERO. So I'm really unsure what you would consider a 'good share'...zero from six is where we are right now.

It's not like all the other teams don't have the same opportunities against the weaker teams we do. We don't play them in isolation.

There're layers to statistics and this is a great starting point for discussion. The ultimate will always be wins vs. losses, but you know it's more nuanced than that, or at least you should.

[Rusty12]

And leading into last years finals, our profile was as good or better, before getting embarrassed by the hawks.
Some might point to excuses for that game, however the W/L is the same, when it mattered.
Lots to be positive about, but my feet are definitely on the ground, until we are better in the big moments.

[mjp]

Alright then.

Might as well just pack up our bags. Nice knowing you, 2025!

No one is saying that.

What I AM saying is that all of these positive stats are doing my head in because they are not reflective of reality - our record is 0-6 against the other 'top' sides.

You could actually mount a pretty good argument that because we seemingly manage to lose in different ways each time that we are the 'TOP' side - just that 'ONE' part of our game let's us down each time we fall short...and there's the kicker. 'SOMETHING' is holding us back - and it's hard to get a true picture of that in the numbers because the numbers themselves are resoundingly positive.

We saw this last year - great numbers - simple finals exit. Our record in close games is (don't quote me) something like 3-17 over the past 20 (decided by less than 3-goals). That is an important stat. 'Something' is missing - it isn't points for or against, it isn't stoppage or transition, it isn't ground ball or kicking efficiency...we can all see the numbers and say what it isn't. What we desperately need is for someone to work out what it IS and fix it.

[Happy Days]

No one is saying that.

What I AM saying is that all of these positive stats are doing my head in because they are not reflective of reality - our record is 0-6 against the other 'top' sides.

You could actually mount a pretty good argument that because we seemingly manage to lose in different ways each time that we are the 'TOP' side - just that 'ONE' part of our game let's us down each time we fall short...and there's the kicker. 'SOMETHING' is holding us back - and it's hard to get a true picture of that in the numbers because the numbers themselves are resoundingly positive.

We saw this last year - great numbers - simple finals exit. Our record in close games is (don't quote me) something like 3-17 over the past 20 (decided by less than 3-goals). That is an important stat. 'Something' is missing - it isn't points for or against, it isn't stoppage or transition, it isn't ground ball or kicking efficiency...we can all see the numbers and say what it isn't. What we desperately need is for someone to work out what it IS and fix it.

You could really feel this in the Geelong game. We went through points 30-2 of their margin like a hot knife but actually getting in front felt impossible. Can’t help but look at moments like McNeil refusing to take a shot after missing two from the same spot, or Ed missing Buku on his own on a simple 20m chip kick (or even just not taking the shot himself) and think that there’s some sort of mental block impacting us when the heat is on.

[Sedat]

You could really feel this in the Geelong game. We went through points 30-2 of their margin like a hot knife but actually getting in front felt impossible. Can’t help but look at moments like McNeil refusing to take a shot after missing two from the same spot, or Ed missing Buku on his own on a simple 20m chip kick (or even just not taking the shot himself) and think that there’s some sort of mental block impacting us when the heat is on.

Geelong loss was overrated by us. It was really poor in 2 parts - our appalling, uncompetitive 2nd qtr (probably the worst we've played all year, alongside the 1st qtr against Hawthorn) and our terrible last 8 minutes where we didn't fire a shot after having all the momentum the previous 30 minutes. Even the Collingwood loss was ultimately decided by a lapse in D50 stoppage for the Sidebottom winner in an otherwise highly laudable performance where we didn't do a hell of a lot wrong and were severely undermanned.

It's over to the players and coaches to determine if we are a genuine contender in 2025. Sydney win is a tick - it wasn't perfect but we got it done in a tight game against a really difficult opponent on enemy territory, and we did it without relying solely on our top-end stars, or shooting the lights out in territory, clearance and stoppage to win.

[comrade]

The next 8 weeks is going to be very fun on here, one way or another.

[Bornadog]

15 Games in, key injuries to start, loads of travel and a tough draw, regardless, you are what you are.
There is a lot of talk that the dogs are a clearance team, and are very reliant on this. What does the data say?
Using standard deviations to filter the contenders from the pretenders.

Total offensive rating + total defensive rating:
4 Teams can win it
1 - Pies
2 - Dogs
3 - Crows
4 - Cats

Kicking quality:
1 - Pies
2 - Dogs

F50 Ground Balls Differential:
1 - Dogs
2 - Cats

Expected Score Differential:
1 - Pies
2 Crows
3 - Cats
4 - Suns
5 - Dogs

Scores from Turnover Differential:
1 - Pies
2 - Crows
3 - Cats
4- Giants
5 - Dogs
6 - Lions

Scores from Stoppage Differential:
1 - Dogs
2 - Cats

Scores from CBA Differential:
1 - Dogs
2 - Hawks
3 - Suns

Dogs are a lot more than a 1 trick pony.

Here is another Stat Rusty
image.png

Sam Darcy is BREAKING ChampionDataAFL's 'Relative Rating' stat. It's the second best Relative Rating of anybody in the past 15 years.

(* based on age at 31 Dec. at the end of the season)

[Uninformed]

We are still a chance to enter the finals undefeated when both Bont. and Darcy play

[whythelongface]

Good thread and discussion. Whilst slightly concerning that we have gone 0-6 against top 8 sides our game plan stacks up against the top teams. It needs adjustment, finessing and better execution but ultimately we just need to keep winning to get a double chance. The games against Adelaide, Freo, Brisbane and the Giants will really set the scene for our season (ideally we want to win 3 of those games).

Reflecting back on last year Brisbane where in a similar position where, at this stage of the season, they had only beaten one team in the top 8. Thus there is hope for us to tinker our game plan and challenge for the flag. Let’s hope we can.

[Uninformed]

We seem to have fallen down against the strong frontal pressure of top teams. Adelaide currently have the highest pressure rating for this season, so that game should give an indication whether we have managed to adjust.

[ledge]

I look at it this way . You’re only going to beat the top teams once so let’s not waste it during the year and do it in finals !
The other point is if we beat them during the year it gives them some sort of incentive for revenge , them beating us during the year they don’t see us as such a threat in finals and BANG we get them.
I think that was a part of our run in 2016.