The run home: hit or miss?

[SonofScray]

Scenario and narrative from the club after last night all feels pretty aligned. We have 4 games and need 4 wins to make it.

Do we:

HIT - string together a run of form and charge into finals

or

MISS - cough one, or more up and season goes down the drain.



3rd option: fall in like we did a few seasons back on other results.


Side note: early in the year there was discussion around breaking the season up into blocks of 4 games and measuring things like that. Interesting to be in this position. Will revisit some of that chat.

[Bornadog]

I think we can win all four games.
No reason why we can't beat GWS again, and we have had Freos measure at home. Melbourne are pretty cooked.

[Uninformed]

Reckon we win four, tighten up our defence, and then do some damage!

[HOSE B ROMERO]

We'll win all four but miss finals. 60 points
The suns play 4 of their last 5 against teams outside the 8. Their other match is against the Giants at home which i think they'll lose. 64 points
Geelong's 5 are against teams outside 8. 68 points
Giants lose to us but defeat North, Suns and the saints. 64 points

[1eyedog]

We'll win all four but miss finals. 60 points
The suns play 4 of their last 5 against teams outside the 8. Their other match is against the Giants at home which i think they'll lose. 64 points
Geelong's 5 are against teams outside 8. 68 points
Giants lose to us but defeat North, Suns and the saints. 64 points

Yep regardless of our % for the first time this season I feel we'll miss the finals. We can legitimately miss even if we win all four.

Freo beating the Pies and the Swans shitting the bed last night hurt alot. 8 points out from GWS and Freo will make it tough now.

Maybe we can take Hawthorn's place but man they're playing well.

[Sedat]

We'll win all four but miss finals. 60 points
The suns play 4 of their last 5 against teams outside the 8. Their other match is against the Giants at home which i think they'll lose. 64 points
Geelong's 5 are against teams outside 8. 68 points
Giants lose to us but defeat North, Suns and the saints. 64 points

GC v GWS is at Carrara, which as reinforced today is a real fortress for GC.

There's also Hawthorn who have 3 very tough fixtures, 2 on the road.

We can obviously miss but it will be with 14 or less wins I reckon - if we run the table, there should be at least one team on 15 wins who we overtake on percentage.

[JackCJohnston2000]

Maybe this is "cope"...

But if we end up on 14 wins and miss out on finals, I don't think we can view that as much of a failure as we have other years we've missed out under Bevo (18,19,23). 14 wins gets you a finals spot and if we go 4-0 then 15 wins gets you top 4 (Bevo's missing link), it's just that this year the top 8 teams have been far more successful than usual and the bar for entry is just so much higher. I remember when 12 wins would get you finals!

I think we can absolutely win these next 4 games. But if we beat Melbourne and West Coast but split between GWS and Freo and miss finals going 14-9, I won't be viewing this year as a failure or something to be upset with. We took huge strides forward as a team (it wasn't long ago that we were losing to teams we should beat, we haven't done that all year) with a ton of inexperienced youth being exposed in the starting 23.

Maybe this is for the wrong thread but I don't know, I'll be mostly focused on how well we play and how many games we win in this final month and less about where we finish on the ladder. If we play great and go 3-1 or 4-0 but miss finals, that's just a bit unlucky I reckon.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

You know what. I read thi aa few hours ago. After thinking about it I recon that this year is actually up for grabs. We will make the finals with the hawks missing out. IMO we are play ok and I actually think we are one of the most consistent and inform sides in the top 8

[Flamethrower]

Brisbane are vulnerable too after today's loss - they have Collingwood at the MCG, Sydney at the GABBA, Fremantle in Perth and Hawthorn at the GABBA.
Hawthorn too with Adelaide in Adelaide, Collingwood at the G, Melbourne at the G and Brisbane at the GABBA.

We MUST beat GWS, and if we do, the round 24 games at the GABBA between Brisbane and Hawthorn and our game against Fremantle could be 2 early elimination finals.

I lot will depend on Collingwood's form in the run home - they control many teams' destiny.

[Sedat]

Brisbane are vulnerable too after today's loss - they have Collingwood at the MCG, Sydney at the GABBA, Fremantle in Perth and Hawthorn at the GABBA.
Hawthorn too with Adelaide in Adelaide, Collingwood at the G, Melbourne at the G and Brisbane at the GABBA.

We MUST beat GWS, and if we do, the round 24 games at the GABBA between Brisbane and Hawthorn and our game against Fremantle could be 2 early elimination finals.

I lot will depend on Collingwood's form in the run home - they control many teams' destiny.

Brisbane are safe because of their dirty draw with North. Sydney is an easy kill now as they are cooked for the year - 1st half last night was their final fling.

if we do what we need in our matches, Hawthorn and GWS are the vulnerable ones. GWS have also lost Buckley and Kelly so their depth will get tested the next few weeks.

[Bornadog]

You know what. I read thi aa few hours ago. After thinking about it I recon that this year is actually up for grabs. We will make the finals with the hawks missing out. IMO we are play ok and I actually think we are one of the most consistent and inform sides in the top 8

I have the Hawks missing as well

[1eyedog]

Yeah I dunno the Hawks are up and about. Lewis and Day back in at the perfect time.

It would be a totally Hawthorn thing to do to arse a few games and keep us out.

[Bumper Bulldogs]

I have the Hawks missing as well

This is old be just like Christmas, I’ve come to dislike the “Hollywood” Hawks and Mitchell immensely over the last few years.

[DOG GOD]

Dogs to finish 9th

[Mantis]

Yeah I dunno the Hawks are up and about. Lewis and Day back in at the perfect time.

It would be a totally Hawthorn thing to do to arse a few games and keep us out.

Up and about you say?

They were ordinary against Carlton after 1/4 time and their midfield is battling.