The run home: hit or miss?

[Stevo]

Maybe this is "cope"...

But if we end up on 14 wins and miss out on finals, I don't think we can view that as much of a failure as we have other years we've missed out under Bevo (18,19,23). 14 wins gets you a finals spot and if we go 4-0 then 15 wins gets you top 4 (Bevo's missing link), it's just that this year the top 8 teams have been far more successful than usual and the bar for entry is just so much higher. I remember when 12 wins would get you finals!

I think we can absolutely win these next 4 games. But if we beat Melbourne and West Coast but split between GWS and Freo and miss finals going 14-9, I won't be viewing this year as a failure or something to be upset with. We took huge strides forward as a team (it wasn't long ago that we were losing to teams we should beat, we haven't done that all year) with a ton of inexperienced youth being exposed in the starting 23.

Maybe this is for the wrong thread but I don't know, I'll be mostly focused on how well we play and how many games we win in this final month and less about where we finish on the ladder. If we play great and go 3-1 or 4-0 but miss finals, that's just a bit unlucky I reckon.

Yes and no. 14 wins in any other season is sufficient but with 3 weak teams this year and playing two of them twice it should mean we have also had a decent draw.
For the sake of one win against a higher placed team we could have controlled our own destiny.

It's been a roller coaster of a season. Thrashing so many sides, frustrating close loses, injuries to key players so a lot of emotions and potential excuses.
No doubt there is more to come.

[Mat Lyons]

Dogs finish 6th. Then win the flag. I have done the ladder predictor 54 times this morning and each time the same result. I keep calling out to my wife - "You're not gonna believe it again!..."

[NAUGHTY100]

Scenario and narrative from the club after last night all feels pretty aligned. We have 4 games and need 4 wins to make it.

Do we:

HIT - string together a run of form and charge into finals

or

MISS - cough one, or more up and season goes down the drain.



3rd option: fall in like we did a few seasons back on other results.


Side note: early in the year there was discussion around breaking the season up into blocks of 4 games and measuring things like that. Interesting to be in this position. Will revisit some of that chat.

I think its the 3rd option personally , i can see us winning 3 of the games , and belive me i hope with all my heart im wrong , but does the old tune come back to haunt us and that is when the pressure is really on and we really really need a win , we lack that certain something that most of the top sides have , maybe its determination maybe its just plain old luck , but we seem to fold when the pressure is really hot in the kitchen .
Guys like McNeil , Vandermeer , Cleary , Harmes , Poulter , fringe players that in finals need to lift , need to be playing out of their skin , but time and time again when the chips are down and theres real heat in the kitchen these type of players go missing , and to win pressure games these types of guys need to be at their best and as i said i hope im wrong but i cant see us doing anything until we tighten up our bottom end of the list , and i think with a few of the young guys we have brought in , that might be happening , but not this year .
So 3rd option we sneak in on other results , only to tumble right back out 1st week .

[The Adelaide Connection]

It would be nice to see Hawthorn and Brisbane both limp into that last fixture knowing whoever wins is in, whoever loses is out. This is a real possibility given each of their draws- but we still need to do our part by winning 4 out of 4.

[Happy Days]

I have come to accept this team as a beautiful glass cannon and think that missing the finals on 14 wins seems perfect. We are in the entertainment business.

[jeemak]

I have come to accept this team as a beautiful glass cannon and think that missing the finals on 14 wins seems perfect. We are in the entertainment business.

What about missing on fifteen wins? Tear the place to shreds? Burn it down?

[Mantis]

What about missing on fifteen wins? Tear the place to shreds? Burn it down?

There is a way that this could happen, well not the burning the joint down bit, but if we get to 15wins and miss it would be the the result of pretty much every key game to be played going against us.

But given our history of 15 wins being an important marker why not not that mark and miss out?

[FrediKanoute]

Has a team ever won 15 games in a season and had a percentage over 130% and still missed finals?

[Bornadog]

Has a team ever won 15 games in a season and had a percentage over 130% and still missed finals?

I very much doubt it

[angelopetraglia]

So if the Hawks beat the Crows & Pies but lose to Brisbane. Freo beats Brisbane. GWS beat Gold Coast.

All the other favourites win.

We would be the only team stuck on 15 wins. We would miss the finals. But one extra win would have us finishing top four.

These results would result in only six points separating first to eighth on the ladder.

[angelopetraglia]

Also. For context. Last season the Blues made the finals with 13 wins. 15 wins got you 3rd position with a healthy %.

[jeemak]

So if the Hawks beat the Crows & Pies but lose to Brisbane. Freo beats Brisbane. GWS beat Gold Coast.

All the other favourites win.

We would be the only team stuck on 15 wins. We would miss the finals. But one extra win would have us finishing top four.

These results would result in only six points separating first to eighth on the ladder.

Why do you insist on producing Kane Cornes wank fodder?

[jeemak]

In 2019 we made finals on 12 wins.......fifteen on today's percentage would have landed us fourth.

2022/2023 same same gets us fifth. 2024 gets us third!

[Bornadog]

In 2019 we made finals on 12 wins.......fifteen on today's percentage would have landed us fourth.

2022/2023 same same gets us fifth. 2024 gets us third!

Don't forget there has been an extra game in each of the past three years

[angelopetraglia]

Why do you insist on producing Kane Cornes wank fodder?

Ha ...