The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

[always right]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I think we'll see the most pronounced divide between the top eight and bottom eight this year. The fight for the top four is going to be a ripper.
In order;

Top Eight:
Bulldogs
Geelong
Saints
Adelaide
Collingwood
Hawks
Essendon
Brisbane

Bottom Eight:
Westcoast
Carlton
Sydney
North Melbourne
Fremantle
Port Power
Melbourne
Richmond

[Dry Rot]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Agree that WCE (will make use of their home ground advantage next year) and Hawks are the obvious bolters but the Swans IMO will do better than many predictions above.

Yes, they've lost Jolly but their replacements will do OK and the two hawks midfielders they recruited will add a little bit extra.

Their backline while shortish is competent but a forwardline of Goodes at CHF and Bradshaw and White adds a fair bit of tall power up forward.

IMO the Swans were the best non-finalist team this year (and probably better than the Dons) and I reckon they'll make the finals in the 6-8 range next year.

Sliders will be interesting. Two youngish teams - Pies and Crows - did surprisingly well this year - can they back that up next year? Will the Lions mesh together well or will Voss's grand plans unravel?

The two GF sides are getting on - Saints rucks could bow out anytime with injuries and Riewoldt's knee won't be any better. Likewise, Cats have ageing key players in Ottens, Mooney and Scarlett.

On paper, the Blue cheats don't look flash aside from their midfield and would a surprise to make the finals.

And what about the Dogs? If ageing bodies hold up, no surprise key injuries and Hall doesn't belt anyone we should at least make the GF. But add in any of these negative possibilities and we could slide, although our depth is looking the best I recall.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I actually don't think there will be that much change:

St Kilda 1 > 3
Geelong 2 > 4
WB 3 > 1
Collingwood 4 > 5
Adelaide 5 > 2
BL 6 > 9
Carlton 7 > 10
Essendon 8 > 7

Hawthorn 9 > 6
Port 10 > 12
WCE 11 > 8
Sydney 12 > 14
North 13 > 11
Freo 14 > 13
Richmond 15 > 15
Melbourne 16 > 16

I have no side moving more than 3 places. Hawthorn & West Coast into the 8, Brisbane and Carlton out. Mainly due to the age of their best players & quality of young talent.

The same top 5 as last year, but different Grand Finalists and premier

It always looks that way pre-season but it never happens.

You (and all the rest of us too) will be wrong by miles and next year we will all be saying, "well, I never expected them to do so well".

[Twodogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Melbourne have some really good kids i see them improving, maybe not finals but moving up to 9th.

Yeah I like Melbourne's chances this year too. I rate Bailey as a coach and they have some very good kids.

[Twodogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Yes, they've lost Jolly but their replacements will do OK and the two hawks midfielders they recruited will add a little bit extra.

Their backline while shortish is competent but a forwardline of Goodes at CHF and Bradshaw and White adds a fair bit of tall power up forward.

IMO the Swans were the best non-finalist team this year (and probably better than the Dons) and I reckon they'll make the finals in the 6-8 range next year.

Keannelly is a huge gain for them but Mumford is only just a player and the Swans overpaid drastically for him, as a first ruck I I dont reckon he adds much value. Kennedy and McGlynn give them two more 'Swan type' midfielders, McGlynn especially should play the SCG well and Bradshaw will add a bit to them.

I still have them out of the eight though because they just dont have enough quality players and a fairly ordinary onball division. The coach is just marking time as well. Annointing a successor and giving yourself another year and a half is BS-if you have lost the passion then it's time to move on.

[Dry Rot]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Keannelly is a huge gain for them but Mumford is only just a player and the Swans overpaid drastically for him, as a first ruck I I dont reckon he adds much value. Kennedy and McGlynn give them two more 'Swan type' midfielders, McGlynn especially should play the SCG well and Bradshaw will add a bit to them.

I still have them out of the eight though because they just dont have enough quality players and a fairly ordinary onball division. The coach is just marking time as well. Annointing a successor and giving yourself another year and a half is BS-if you have lost the passion then it's time to move on.

Will be interesting to revisit this in 10 months time. Don't necessarily disagree with much of your post but perhaps my starting ie this season rates them higher.

I watched them play the Saints live. Admittedly it was the SCG but I reckon they played them as well as we did in the PF (and like us they should have won).

Re Mumford agree but Seaby will go OK. Agree that they still lack zip in the midfield but have a couple of interesting young 'uns coming eg Hannebury (sp?).

After the shocking drop in AFL ratings in Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/l...1220-l7i3.html we poor clubs need the Swans to do well.

..While rugby league's Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne figures are up and regionals constant, the AFL has suffered a worrying fall in Sydney and a dip in Brisbane, the metropolitan areas where they are seeking to build support with new teams. Sydney's numbers have dropped a massive 19.5 per cent, Brisbane's 1.5 per cent, and regionals are down 13.4 per cent.

With the Swans in a transition period during which their stars have retired and they are unable to access top draft choices, Sydney's audience is expected to decline further...

[Twodogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Re Mumford agree but Seaby will go OK. Agree that they still lack zip in the midfield but have a couple of interesting young 'uns coming eg Hannebury (sp?).

I forgot about Seaby. He's the sort of guy who could do quite well with more time in the ruck.

[Dry Rot]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

I forgot about Seaby. He's the sort of guy who could do quite well with more time in the ruck.

Could surprise.

And sides like us and North need a strong Swans.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Seaby is crap compared to Jolly.

[boydogs]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

It always looks that way pre-season but it never happens.

You (and all the rest of us too) will be wrong by miles and next year we will all be saying, "well, I never expected them to do so well".

I know what you are saying, there is a stat that goes something like every year since the final 8 was introduced one the sides who missed finals one year makes the top 4 the next year.

There was such a gap this year though between the top 5 and the rest I can't see it at this stage. The best chances would appear to be Hawthorn, who I have coming up to 6th, and West Coast who were 4-13 at one stage last year but looked better in the last few rounds

[LostDoggy]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Sorry to ask but why do 'we the Bulldogs' need Sydney to do well?

[Dry Rot]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Sorry to ask but why do 'we the Bulldogs' need Sydney to do well?

Next TV deal -> $$$s

[LostDoggy]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Next TV deal -> $$$s

Why is it just the Bulldogs that need to worries about it? To me the TV deal is a league wide issue.

This prop up Sydney mentality is BS. Why the hell have a competition if same clubs 'need to be sucessful'.

[Dry Rot]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

After the shocking drop in AFL ratings in Sydney http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/l...1220-l7i3.html we poor clubS need the Swans to do well.

Why is it just the Bulldogs that need to worries about it? To me the TV deal is a league wide issue.

Attention to detail is useful.

[LostDoggy]

Re: The bolter and the slider of the 2010 Season

Attention to detail is useful.

I still don't understand. We are a poor club because clubs like Sydney get propped up. We need keep them healthy so we can still be poor.