The Lottery - Pick 17

[The Coon Dog]

I was a bit bored & decided to have a look at many of the Phantom Drafts posted & was staggered with just how many different players were slotted in at pick 17. I was going to do a poll, but there were just too many.

Here's who various posters had us taking at pick 17 (in alphabetical order):

Hayden Crozier x 7
Sam Docherty x 3
Brandon Ellis x 3
Todd Elton x 2
Alex Forster x 4
Sam Frost x 2
Elliott Kavanagh x 3
Daniel Markworth x 1
Fraser McInnes x 1
Brad McKenzie x 2
Tom Sheridan x 1
Clay Smith x 1
Devon Smith x 1
Michael Talia x 1

I bet that just makes it clearer now who we'll pick!

If I wasn't already confused beforehand, I am completely confused now.

Anyhow, for a stab in the dark, I'll go with Brandon Ellis.

Go on, have a guess, you have to have more of a clue than me!

[GVGjr]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

I want Michael Talia or Sam Frost good backs badly needed. I don't want Clay Smith not a first rounder late 2nd or third rounder .Dogs don't buy another Christian Howard to early and miss a gun.

[ledge]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

From what Macca is indicating it will be a player with a great atitude, hunger, team orientated and of decent morals to go with the football talent.
Does that help at all??

[Desipura]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

I will take a guess and say Docherty assuming Adams is not available.
If we go with a Clay Smith it would not surprise me, it will disappoint me though.
Michael Talia is another we may consider.

[The Doctor]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

From what Macca is indicating it will be a player with a great atitude, hunger, team orientated and of decent morals to go with the football talent.
Does that help at all??

what about skill?

[Maddog37]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

Judging from our history it will be a smoky that another team wanted with their next pick so we had to snap him up earlier than expected.

[Missing Dog]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

I think we will go for Ellis. I'm guessing Docherty and Crozier will be gone.

[ledge]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

what about skill?

I did say talent to cover all the football side of things.

[Greystache]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

A smokey no one's heard of, who didn't play rep footy- possibly with a story of an unusual background.

[Cyberdoggie]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

I think Markworth, although he may go earlier.

[Remi Moses]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

It will be " we rated insert player here " higher and are delighted he got through to pick 17!
Mind you cue the other 17 clubs for the same answer.

[Dancin' Douggy]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

Weight of numbers says Crozier. Happy with that.

[stefoid]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

Here are Quigleys draft profiles of the players who are a chance to fall to our pick (for that reason I havent included Adams )- I chose his because they are very comprehensive, and he isnt afraid to point out flaws.


Elliot Kavanagh
DOB 19/5/93 Ht 185 Wt 75

This is a kid who was on a lot of people’s radars coming into the year after averaging 25 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 9 tackles a game in his 4 TAC games for the Western Jets last year. Unfortunately persistent hamstring and knee tendonitis injuries have cruelled his year. He missed all of the Champs and only managed a few games toward the end of the year. He did attend the Combine but I doubt he was at his physical peak and the performances were perhaps a little below what they might otherwise have been. Notwithstanding that he did win the clean hands award with 28/30 equaling the mark set last year by Caddy and Heppell.

Despite the TAC numbers from last year I would not generally consider Kavanagh to be a big possession winner during his junior career nor a big contested ball winner. He plays mostly as a winger where he has shown great dash, skills and decision making. He reminds me a bit of Daisy Thomas and he has that kind of hurt factor about his game. He is capable of winning his own ball when it’s his turn but he is probably an outside/in player at the moment rather than the other way around. With that said I could easily see him starting onball as he develops as he does have superb hands being both clean and quick.

He is described by many as being the complete package as a midfielder and when you break it down you can understand why. Physically he has nice height and a build which will fill out. In game situations he seems to have good endurance and a really nice burst of pace which he uses regularly during games. With the ball in hand as already mentioned he has high hurt factor. He can break the lines and his option taking is elite. His kicking is good and he puts the ball where he aims it. He has a strong competitive instinct and will get in and mix it up working hard both offensively and defensively. He might be the best tackler of the top group of prospects. He hunts the player, uses his pace well to close them down and then sticks the tackles when he gets his hands on them.

From what little I have seen his work up forward is solid and he seems to have good penetration on his kicking. I am not sure how this has been affected by his injury issues. He is good overhead and shows nice soft hands and good body control in the air. He is not the most dangerous around goal but he is not bad either.

This is a guy with major X factor and provided his body is right he could easily be up there with the best players to come out of this draft. GWS with all their picks may be best placed to take a punt on him but there is major talent there and the pay off could be huge with him. The player he reminds me of most from the last few years is Hamish Hartlett in both his skill set and his injury concerns. I am hoping he has a bit better run with injuries but that worry is why he is being talked about around pick 10 rather than pick 4 where Hartlett was taken.

Sam Docherty
DOB 17/10/93 Ht 185 Wt 83

Initially I was surprised when EQ was talking about Docherty being one of the top 15 guys in this draft but as I went back and looked at him some more I came to appreciate that she might well be correct. Docherty’s game seems ideal for modern AFL systems and he would be very valuable piece at half back for a new young team. He was only selected for the last two games at the Champs for Vic Country and he made people sit up and take notice with a BOG performance against WA. After a pretty ordinary start to the year Docherty was a very strong performer all the way home until a hip injury tailed him off. The hip injury prevented him testing at the Combine which is a shame as I would have liked to have seen what numbers he would put up.

Docherty is an offensive HBFer. He has excellent run and carry skills and can either run through zones or kick over them. Going forward he is very heads up and will usually look to go long down the field sometimes to the exclusion of better intermediate options. Still he has the skill to exercise these long kicks well and he hits his targets. He is a right footer but has nice penetration and accuracy off either foot. He might be the best kick off his non-preferred of anyone in this draft. His kicking holds together under pressure and he has great ability to find the target with players closing him down quickly. He is a regularly taker of kick-ins because of his ability to find the target.

Defensively his strength is not in a close checking role and in fact I would say he is not very good in that role and would certainly be taken advantage of at AFL level were he to be asked to play such. He is much better in a loose read and react role which allows him to lay off and attack any ball coming into his area. He reads the ball coming in well and makes good, quick decisions about how to influence the play. He knows when to attack the ball himself, when to clear the way for his own man or when to find a player. He is a team player at the back and works well with those around him.

If the ball finds its way to an opposition player Docherty has good closing speed and works hard to shut down the threat. He is not a big tackler and some work will need to be done on his technique. Another thing he will need to work on is his engine and I am sure the AFL small forwards will work him up and back a lot to take the sting out of his attack. He has the body shape of an endurance athlete but he does not have the engine atm and there will be plenty of hard work ahead for him. He is also not particularly strong overhead but he does get up reasonably well and although he doesn’t often clunk them he does control the ball to ground well and follows quickly.

He has nice clean hands with the ball on the ground and is an exponent of the long hand ball which you don’t often see at junior level. With the ball in hand he shows really good dash and he will back himself to beat players coming out of defense. He moves through contested situations nicely often seemingly to just slide through.

Overall I would rate Docherty as the best HBF option available this year ahead of Buntine. He has superior pace and long kicking ability and is his equal in most other respects. He is probably giving a bit away to Buntine defensively but I think he will make that up with some more experience. I think he is a nice prospect who should become a good AFL player.

Brad McKenzie
DOB 29/5/93 Ht 188 Wt 76

MacKenzie really established himself as a prospect in the carnival after being a late inclusion in the SA team. He was a very important player for SA across the Champs and he should see himself get drafted off the back of the good work. He is not a big possession winner averaging only 16.4 per game at the Champs but he has definite hurt factor and he gets few cheap possessions. In fact one of the areas he really needs to work on is getting more uncontested ball. When you are as good as he is with the ball the team is best served getting the ball to you and you need to get yourself open. At the moment he tends to float around with other players too much and does not bust he gut to get into space. He tested very poorly for endurance at the champs and his lack of easy possessions might be a function of his poor engine rather than anything else.

He played a lot through the middle at the Champs but I quite like the idea of him being behind the ball at the next level. He has really nice height for a small medium and he plays taller than he is with excellent marking ability. He is courageous and floats into contests really nicely to cut out opposition ball. Once he gets it he uses it well and can cut apart a zone. I could easily see him playing the same kind of role as Heppell did for Essendon this year.

He has a reputation as an elite kick but I think that is overstating it a little. He is a good kick but most of his kicks tend to be chips rather than bullets or long raking kicks. He picks out good targets and the chips get where they are supposed to go but I don’t think at the moment I would say his kicking is elite. He can kick goals from outside 50 so he has range on his kicking but he rarely uses this length in his field kicking. He maybe needs to incorporate more long kicks into his game. He plays with his head up and is very aware of where everyone is around him so I think there should be scope for him to improve in this area.

He plays a lot onball and is pretty good in tight and can certainly win the ball when it is his turn. He is not an elite clearance player but he does okay and has quick hands when the ball comes to him. He is composes in tight situations and seems to have a good football brain on him. He has pretty good strength in the contest and can be fairly elusive despite lacking break away speed. He finished 7th in the agility test at the Combine with a score of 8.12.

Athletically he is only average having middle of the pack speed and jumping ability and as mentioned above poor endurance. He has a long and lanky physique with long arms but a build likely to fill out reasonably well in time. Overall he looks like a good footballer who is not going to wow supporters with physical or possession stats but he could make a significant impact with the hurt factor on the possessions many of which come from contests. I think as he improves his endurance he will be able to make significant more impact on games and collect more uncontested ball. There is a lot of potential upside with McKenzie but whoever takes him is going to need to be patient.

[stefoid]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

Devon Smith
DOB 20/5/93 Ht 175 Wt 73

It will be interesting to see where Smith goes on draft day. He could go top 10 but equally he could easily fall down toward the bottom end of the first round. He is a high possession winner who tested fantastically well at the Combine but on the other side of the coin he is shorter than teams usually like and did not really show much improvement in his game this year. Further I am not sure that he stepped up to Champs level particularly well and so you wonder how he will go against the bigger and quicker guys of the AFL.

At the Combine, Smith managed a 15.1 in the beep test which was good for 10th, was third in the repeat sprint, was low 2.9s in the 20m sprint and was 9th in the clean hands test. He was also in the top 25% in the agility and jumps. So it’s fair to say that he did all he could to keep his name at the forefront of recruiters minds. Its fair to say that he does not just time well he also plays to his athletic capabilities. He works hard getting to contests and space and shows a really nice burst of pace regularly.

Smith has predominantly been an inside mid at junior level but he has spent some time up forward and it would not surprise me if he started his AFL career as a small forward before moving into the midfield. I think he could develop like Christensen of the Cats or Blair of Collingwood. Smith has excellent closing speed and is a good hitter for a small guy. He could be a real force in a forward press where his endurance and speed will allow him to influence the play very nicely. In the forward line he will work hard up and back and he can make life difficult for a match up with his engine and pace. He also finds space well up forward and is pretty good overhead for a short guy. His set shot style is not pretty and I would not say he is a particularly good shot for goal. He has reasonable goal sense but again I would not put him in the top bracket and he would not stack up well in the trick shot department.

In the middle I think he struggled at times at the Champs with the increase in intensity at the contest. He always seemed to be rushed and was not one of those guys who seemed to have time. I also do not think he has particularly good awareness of where people are around him. In contested situations he tends to concentrate on just getting the ball out rather than to anybody and even when he does get it to his man it is not always the best option with the receiver often under pressure. When he gets out in the open he can also often run himself into trouble seemingly because he doesn’t realise what is around him.

Skills wise he needs to work on his handballs quite a bit. He tends to plop the handball out quite often causing the receiver to have to wait and reach to receive it. He definitely needs to add some zip. With his kicking he is pretty good when he has time and space. He will usually weight his passes well and hit his targets. In ruck contests or when under pressure he usually just throws it on the boot and hopes to get it forward. He is not very constructive with his kicks under pressure.

Smith is very confident in his own abilities and carries that attitude into games. This kind of arrogance is not a bad thing if it is well founded and is often the sign of a very good player. At junior level he has a very similar style of game to Brent Harvey and it’s not out of the question that he could develop into a similar player at AFL level. There are also plenty of short, quick, high possession mids who don’t amount to anything at AFL level when they can’t play the same way they did at junior level. Smith could go either way but you would think he is a fair bet to end up a reasonable player.

Hayden Crozier
DOB 24/12/93 Ht 185 Wt 68

Crozier is a hard one to place. He has all the potential in the world and can do the spectacular but he often doesn’t do the little things as well as he should nor get involved in the game enough. He had a pretty quiet Champs really except for one nice game against WA that netted him 4 goals and his TAC form in the second half of the year was pretty poor. So poor in fact that his coach had to move him into the backline to try and reinvigorate his form by getting the ball to him more.

This is the same tactic that Carlton have used with Yarren and I think the comparison between Yarren and Crozier is pretty good. Both had high expectations coming into their second year of U18 and both disappointed a bit as small forwards despite giving us some highlight film moments. Whilst Crozier might start his career up forward I could easily see him following Yarren into the back half as he develops physically.

At the moment Crozier is very thin and has stick-like arms but it is worth noting that he is close to the youngest in this draft only just scraping into this draft class. He has pretty reasonable height but needs some serious time in the gym. His other physical attributes though are very good and he tested that way at Combine. He was second in the running jump just behind Wingard (91cm) and was 6th in both the agility test (8.08) and in the 20m sprint (2.89). His endurance was also better than I expected at 14.54. I had thought endurance would have been more of a problem for him but that score was solid. Overall Crozier has excellent athletic skills.

Up forward he is more of a flyer and crumber than a leader which needs to be corrected. With his pace and agility he should be getting out on the lead more than he is as you would think separation is there for the taking if he is prepared to work for it. Crozier does love the spectacular mark and often lines up to try and take these all the time rather than getting out on the lead or letting the bigger guys fly and staying down where he can use his good crumbing skills to full effect. At the Champs I saw several times where he flew and the big guys were forced to try and crumb. That’s not the way it should go.

Overhead he is a very nice mark though and for someone so slight he has great control of his body in the air. He reads the flight of the ball very well and times his jumps usually very well when he lets the game come to him rather than trying to force it by flying for everything. With the ball on the ground he is very clean and positions himself to get a shot at goal very well. He has excellent goal sense and he is a good finisher. He has really nice awareness of how much time he has in the forward 50 to use the ball. He judges very well when to get the ball quickly onto the boot and when to take the extra second to balance. He definitely has a goal scorer’s mentality and he wants to be the one on the scoreboard.

When he is up the ground either on a flank or at half back he shows his pace more and is a dangerous run and carry player. He is also an excellent field kick off either foot. On his preferred he has a nice flat, long kick that he uses to pinpoint his targets. His delivery into the forward 50 is also first class. With the ball in hand he loves a bounce and to take the game on although sometimes he does need to throttle back the number of bounces he has as he often seems to be bouncing it every second step.

Like Yarren he uses his body very smartly and can ease bigger guys out with subtle nudges. Overall I think he is a very smart player with excellent skills. What he needs to do though is work on getting into the game more. He too often seems to float through games and not even attempt to get into the play. He needs to work harder and giving him a job and putting him behind the ball might be the answer. Apparently he is a very bubbly personality and is fun to have around the club. He is a guy who wants to be the centre of attention whether on or off the field but he needs to made to understand what he needs to contribute in ways other than taking the big mark or going on the long run. There is a lot of potential with Crozier but he is a high risk high reward type of proposition.

Brandon Ellis
DOB 3/8/93 Ht 181 Wt 83

Ellis is a powerfully built HBFer who should be able to step in and play AFL right away. He has all the physical tools to let him start from round 1 next year. He is physically mature and has an excellent engine as evidenced by his 15.4 in the beep test (4th overall) at Combine. He understands his position well and was a bit of an unsung hero for Metro at the Champs I think.

Time and again at the Champs he was the one at the back tidying up the mess. He covered an enormous amount of ground and was able to sniff out when there was a problem and got to the right place to clean it up. This was particularly evident at the end of games when everyone else seemed to be tiring. Defensively I think he reads the play very well and positions himself to influence the play. Going forward I am not so sure about his play reading ability.

In attack I think Ellis does not read how play is going to develop particularly well. He makes plays to guys who whilst open have few options open to them or who were open to make a play a short time before but by the time they receive the ball the chance has been shut down. That is not to say he takes bad options at junior level but I do have some concerns that these poor reads will be exploited more at AFL level. His option taking is usually fairly conservative and he works it out of the back half most often with short chip passes.

His kicking style is a little awkward particularly on the left but he is pretty good at hitting his targets off either foot most particularly with his short to medium range kicks. He has reasonable penetration with his long kicks and gets surprising distance with his non-preferred. He can sometimes overestimate his length and underestimate the time it will take to get there but I really don’t see much wrong with his kicking at all. He has pretty quick hands for a HBF in the contest and he can get a bit of zip on his handballs. Again he can go a little bit beyond his range with the handball on occasions forcing the receiver to wait but overall he is one of the better long handballers in this draft.

Athletically he is excellent except for one thing and that is his pace off the mark. From a standing start he is very slow but once he gets things moving he actually has a pretty good top end speed. In the sprints at Combine he was in the bottom 10% over the first 5 metres but he picked up speed on most others over the remaining 15 metres and ended up with a reasonable time of 3.05. This good top end speed was also borne out in the 30m repeat sprint where he managed a very good time to place him in the top 13% of those tested. That’s pretty good for a guy with significant pace concerns. In addition to the very good endurance tests he also was just outside the top 10 in the agility and both the standing and running jumps. The agility and jumping were great for a guy with his build and are important when assessing his ability to hold his own as a defender at AFL level.

Defensively he is not often a tight marker but that is a function of the way junior football is played. With his skill set I think he could play as either a HBFer at AFL level or could move into the midfield as a tagger who can win his own ball. Down the track I could easily see him being one of the better taggers in the game. At the moment he is a hard at it style of player but is not probably as physical as his physique would suggest. He can throw his weight around but he is not a big hitter in the tackles nor does he overplay the physical contests. He will try to break tackles but he does not get through them all that much but credit to him he is not caught holding the ball much even when he is caught. I like his tenacious style and the dependable nature of his work in the defensive half and I think whoever picks him could get a reasonable player who goes about his job quietly and does the little things which will help teams win.

[stefoid]

Re: The Lottery - Pick 17

Daniel Markworth
DOB 3/4/92 Ht 190.5 Wt 78

Markworth is getting a lot of attention and people seem to be buying him on perceived upside. Personally I am a bit more skeptical. People talk about him like he is new to football but that is not the case. He has played his entire life and has been in the TAC system the last couple of years. He played other sports like Tennis very well but he still played football but with the development he has shown over the last year or so people are assuming that he has come from nowhere. That is not the case it is simply that he is a late developer and he was able to do well this year playing against kids a year younger than himself.

With that said Markworth has shown excellent development this year and has a few really good aspects to his game. First and foremost is his pace. He ran a very slippery 2.89 in the 20m at Combine (and a 24.31 in the repeat sprint which was 5th overall) and he uses this pace well in games. He is a quick lead up forward who can create separation with his pace. He has played a fair bit as a tall forward at TAC level as well as on a flank but at AFL level he is definitely a flanker. His crumbing skills are good and he has nice clean hands below his knees. He is a bit of a swooper on crumbs and this is one of the best aspects of his game.

In the contest he is agile and elusive and can be difficult to tackle especially once he has a bit of space to work in. He likes to take players on and he does it very well. He supposedly had a sore knee at Combine and did not test for endurance (although he did do the jumps and sprint work) which I am a little skeptical about but using the eyeball test he seems to have adequate endurance for a tallish forward but he will definitely need to step it to get the best out of himself at AFL level.

Markworth measured in the top 25% in the jumps demonstrating that he can get up there. Combine this with his height which is good for a flanker and you would usually expect him to be a good mark, especially given the hype that he is getting, but this is not the case. Overall I would suggest he only has average overhead skills and his contested marking leaves a bit to be desired.

His kicking is also something which could be better. He can do some really nice things with his kicks one minute and leave you scratching your head the next. He has been compared a bit with Steve Johnson and he shares the inconsistency of his kicking with Johnson. He is a flank / outside player who averaged only 68% efficiency in the TAC which is poor for the position he played. He does have pretty good penetration on his kicking and is a reasonable shot for goal although he does seem to me to have a bit of a low connection with the ball when he takes a set shot. He has good goal sense and is capable of slotting goals from angle.

He gets credit for working hard in the forward press but he averages only 1.9 tackles per game and his work is a bit inconsistent. There are certainly others who are a fair bit ahead of him in this regard.

Markworth is an intelligent guy who is currently studying Bio-Medicine at Uni and he has demonstrated that he is willing to work on his game. I see no reason why he will not continue to improve but I don’t automatically see the increased upside over other small forwards who are going to be taken around or after him. He is a flashy player and that gets attention but there are definitely some holes and polish that needs to be applied.

Talia – makes Merrett look like an elite kick.

Clay Smith – good endurance but doesn’t do anything else much that I rate. Poor awareness of what is around him and a very ordinary kick for someone who will make his living kicking the ball. I accept he will be taken probably from about pick 20 on but that doesn’t mean I need to include him.