No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

[Dry Rot]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I'm back - I went away and thought about what was asked by the originator. So, I tried to apply a bit of Bayesian Probability Theory to our 2012 fixture. My result: 9th. I've attached my crude msExcel 97-2003 model if you want to try your own version. Basic idea for those not familiar with it is to assign probabilities for winning each game (decimal fraction of 1), add them up and multiply total by 4 (4 points for a win) to get a raw seasons points outcome. I then constructed a table showing average points per ladder position for the past 5 years and matched my modelled points outcome against that.

If anyone has a better modelling idea, lay it on us if you want or if you find my attempt's crudity laughable, that's ok too.

But maybe you might like to input your own probabilities and see what you get.

cheers

Thanks for that. Good fun.

Got 7.5 wins = 13th place

[F'scary]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Like your methodology, just disagree with your results.

You have us as only a 90% chance against GWS and Port Adelaide. You also have us as an 80% chance against Brisbane at Etihad. I would consider us 100% to win all 3.

I also see us as better chances in a few other games and only against Geelong (Rd 9) and Freo (Rd 15) do I rate our chances less than you do.

Putting in my winning probabilities I come up with 14 wins.

cool - that would be 5th spot after the home and away season

[F'scary]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Thanks for that. Good fun.

Got 7.5 wins = 13th place

more pessimistic than me but fair enough - would be interested in the differences if you want to post back.

[GVGjr]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

C'mon folks, read the title of the thread. NO SITTING ON THE FENCE !!

I've already stated what position I think we finish with but I do agree with others that it's potentially a wider season for us than the last few seasons. Point taken though.

[Dry Rot]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

more pessimistic than me but fair enough - would be interested in the differences if you want to post back.

Some key differences and opinions:

We won't get near the Swans at either venue

IMO Saints should start firm favourites

Brisbane will improve and beat us at least at the GABBA

If Freo are injury free, we won't get near them at their home

[Dry Rot]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Not in this thread we don't. There are other threads where that would be an appropriate discussion such as the "Will 2012 see a resurgence like 2008" thread. What is the point of having separate threads if posters just disregard the thread title. "No sitting on the Fence" the title of the thread states. Doesn't this answer your question?

OK, I'll go with MS Excel and say 13th.

[Greystache]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Good stuff F'scary.

I had us on 10.5 wins and in 8th place. I think this season 10.5 will probably finish 8-10, which is about where I have us. I see our percentage being pretty poor so 10th seems about right. Obviously variables such as Lake, Cooney, young forwards, and a new game plan could alter the results.

[LostDoggy]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Morals to play finals

[SlimPickens]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I have us finish 10th. Reasonably confident we can get off to a strong start, thinking around 9-10 wins for the year.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Some key differences and opinions:

We won't get near the Swans at either venue
IMO Saints should start firm favourites

Brisbane will improve and beat us at least at the GABBA

If Freo are injury free, we won't get near them at their home

The Swans have never beaten Western Bulldogs in Melbourne

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

Some key differences and opinions:

We won't get near the Swans at either venue

IMO Saints should start firm favourites

Brisbane will improve and beat us at least at the GABBA

If Freo are injury free, we won't get near them at their home

Why?

Sydney rarely blow sides away and are no world beaters in Melbourne. They are a solid side, but by no means are we incapable of getting near them.

St. Kilda? They're finished. Why wouldn't we fancy ourselves? I'd be surprised if they started firm favourites. Hayes is coming back from a knee and who knows if Riewoldt and Goddard will get back to their best form. Their defence looks a little shakey too.

Not sure how you can say with any confidence that Brisbane can beat us, let alone any other side outside of GWS. They're not exactly overflowing with talent.

Freo I agree with.

[LostDoggy]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I think we will finish 7th.

No spreadsheets or formulas used. I dont think we are as bad as alot of people on here are thinking.

[Ghost Dog]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

After seeing us at the NAB, def think we can go higher than my original prediction!

[LostDoggy]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

I think we will finish 7th.

No spreadsheets or formulas used. I dont think we are as bad as alot of people on here are thinking.

I will stick my neck out and go for 7th place.

[Bulldog4life]

Re: No Sitting On The Fence - Where Will We Finish?

After seeing us at the NAB, def think we can go higher than my original prediction!

Too late.