Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

[Mofra]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Whilst I agree Selwood isn't explosive, I think he has very damaging foot skills. I thought he almost dragged the Cats over the line against the Pies last week. Whether tagging him will actually limit his effectiveness much I'm really not sure, although I would love to see Picken smash him at every opportunity.

Don't think smashing Selwood will make a lick of difference, he's almost as tough as Picken

Should we look at more of an outside runner for Picken to nullify and have Selwood just matched up by our normal midfield rotations?

[Cyberdoggie]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Great review RJ


I see this one being one of Geelong kicking easy goals from our silly mistakes, and us getting lots of forward entries and not capitilzing once again.

If Dickson, Higgins, Gia and Grant in particular can contribute to the scoreboard like they have recently then we may be in with a shot.

Jones, Cordy and Roughead aren't going to trouble the Geelong defenders but if they can just provide a contest and open enough space for the smalls then it might open up for us.

Just on Grant again, he's been very slowly improving the last few weeks and after last saturday nights game i think he showed a few signs that his confidence has turned around.
Macca has got him focussing on the defensive things and he's been improving there but now i've seen him take a couple of leaps for marks and show some desperation at ground balls. I think he's not far away from showing us what he can really do once again.
If only someone can teach him to hold the footy correctly when he kicks it.

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Should we look at more of an outside runner for Picken to nullify and have Selwood just matched up by our normal midfield rotations?

Yep, that's my thinking. You don't just tag the most dangerous opponent, you tag the guy who end up with the biggest drop in value for their team.

Tough nuts like Selwood aren't greatly effected by tags, I would go with Enright and Mackie.

A fit and firing Scarlett would be licking his lips at playing us. No quality KP forward to really worry about and our poor kicking skills means we end up randomly bombing it inside 50 most of the time.

I really hope Grant uses the chance to display his new born workrate as we would love his explosive pass and ability to lay a tackle against Enright. Mackie and Scarlett. He also has good hands overhead meaning he can be a target if they drop off him.

[JohnGentStand]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

I would love to see Picken go to James Kelly. Also hoping we bring in Roughy, Coons, & Vez for Addison, Smith and ????......not sure who, I have a sneaky suspicion Skinner could be a factor if in the side.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Geelong had 55 clangers against the Pies , we had 45 against GCS in the humid damp conditions which is not too bad considering against North we had 40 so I would say that at the moment we are cleaner with the ball

Geelong had 148 contested possessions against the Pies , we had 159 against GCS and most of those really in a stronger second half , at the moment I,d say we are stronger on the ball

Geelong had 37 clearances / Pies 36 so an even contest there , we had 37 against GCS in the humid damp conditions again which is not too bad , consistent , we had 42 against North , so if we stay strong on the ball we should have the edge with clearances

Geelong made 68 tackles against the Pies , a lower figure than normal for them but an indication of the Pies ability to break away and find space , also an indication of not putting enough pressure on , we had 87 against GCS in the humid damp conditions a great effort to put repeat pressure on , again consistent we made 81 against North

Geelong will have to be patient at times with the ball and will have to hit targets by foot if they try to open us up with close quarter handballs our zone defenses should put them under pressure

Geelong do have some weaknesses at the moment but it has to be a 4 quarter effort to knock them over , I,d have to say they are one of the fittest sides who have an innate ability to push hard at the end of every quarter

I,m looking forward to seeing how this unfolds considering our current form and the fact that week by week we take another step forward and upward

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[azabob]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Geelong had 55 clangers against the Pies , we had 45 against GCS in the humid damp conditions which is not too bad considering against North we had 40 so I would say that at the moment we are cleaner with the ball

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West Dog where do you get your stats? Out of interest what were our stats V collingwood?

[LostDoggy]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

West Dog where do you get your stats? Out of interest what were our stats V collingwood?

If I remember it correctly the Pies had a stronger second half so the stats are slightly in their favour , we had only 35 clangers they had 51 an indication of our pressure , we had 156 contested possessions they had 164 just got ahead in the second half , we had 38 clearances they had 44 again just got ahead in the second half , we made 69 tackles they made 79 again an example of them being able to break and find space , now keep in mind that our rotations were affected when Wood went off , with a better second half with Wood injury free there is every chance we could have taken them

All the stats are from the AFL page under the individual game listed in Advanced Stats

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[Bornadog]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

West Dog where do you get your stats? Out of interest what were our stats V collingwood?

Stas can be found here

[Raw Toast]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Thanks for the write-up Rocco.

I agree that Picken is not the most value against Selwood and would be best served trying to limit their run, but I do think Selwood warrants attention and he can be quietly damaging as a link player.

We had good success playing Ward against Selwood, and I'd be tempted to give Wallis the job - it's both about using it as a learning opportunity, and also matching up strengths and I think Wallis could go okay against him head-to-head (or head-to-head ducked as it were).

Scarlett is a huge in for them imo (IF he gets up). The beauty of Lake returning to form (and possibly career-equaling best form at that the last three weeks), is that the opposition now needs to game-plan for him, and we can try and take some advantage of that. Scarlett of course forces the same.

Geelong have also been struggling on the spread, which is another really annoying factor in light of our consecutive six-day breaks. If we can play the attacking style that we showed against the Pies for much of the first half of that game - and IF we can sustain that style - then I think we'll really challenge them. Not overly confident of those two 'ifs' though.

Geelong are superb front-runners, so I'm really hoping that we can at least keep it close for the first half and then build on that.

I think we're a decent chance but it's going to take a huge effort to triumph despite the fixture debacle and Geelong are deserved favourites.

[Ghost Dog]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Thanks for the write-up Rocco.

Thanks also for the write-up

Getting a good start is going to be key. Geelong are under the pump and will be keen to run over us from the word go.

[westdog54]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Great write up RJ, a good read.

Geelong had 55 clangers against the Pies , we had 45 against GCS in the humid damp conditions which is not too bad considering against North we had 40 so I would say that at the moment we are cleaner with the ball

Geelong had 148 contested possessions against the Pies , we had 159 against GCS and most of those really in a stronger second half , at the moment I,d say we are stronger on the ball

Geelong had 37 clearances / Pies 36 so an even contest there , we had 37 against GCS in the humid damp conditions again which is not too bad , consistent , we had 42 against North , so if we stay strong on the ball we should have the edge with clearances

Geelong made 68 tackles against the Pies , a lower figure than normal for them but an indication of the Pies ability to break away and find space , also an indication of not putting enough pressure on , we had 87 against GCS in the humid damp conditions a great effort to put repeat pressure on , again consistent we made 81 against North

Geelong will have to be patient at times with the ball and will have to hit targets by foot if they try to open us up with close quarter handballs our zone defenses should put them under pressure

Geelong do have some weaknesses at the moment but it has to be a 4 quarter effort to knock them over , I,d have to say they are one of the fittest sides who have an innate ability to push hard at the end of every quarter

I,m looking forward to seeing how this unfolds considering our current form and the fact that week by week we take another step forward and upward

.

Some interesting stats but I think they only tell part of the story.

Clangers are an interesting stat. I'd have to look up exactly how the statisticians define them but I'm pretty sure that its a disposal that directly results in a turnover i.e out on the full, straight to an opposition player etc. I think that disposal efficiency is probably a more reliable stat and for most of the year we've been terrible at it.

The contested possessions, clearances and tackles, when looked at from the humid Darwin conditions, can be a misleading stat at times. Clearances need to be looked at on a head to head basis, I wouldn't mind seeing how many clearances the Suns had. An increased tackle count stands to reason in difficult conditions as the ball is fumbled more often, players have to slow down/take that extra step and they increase the chance of being tackled. It becomes a similar story for contested possessions.

Having said that, I won't say I'm confident about tomorrow night but I am cautiously optimistic.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Really interesting to see the degree of optimism in the posts.

Pre-season I had this game as our MOST UNWINNABLE.

I guess the optimism shows both a degree of satisfaction in how we are travelling, but also a view that Geelong are not what they were.

I never tip against us but with the reduced break and travel, I just can't see us winning and think we will do well to get within about 35 points.

[Sockeye Salmon]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Clangers are an interesting stat. I'd have to look up exactly how the statisticians define them but I'm pretty sure that its a disposal that directly results in a turnover i.e out on the full, straight to an opposition player etc. I think that disposal efficiency is probably a more reliable stat and for most of the year we've been terrible at it.

Disposal efficency is the least relevant stat in football.

If you get the ball in a pack and kick it forward to a contest, the disposal is ineffective.


DE% is mostly about how often you kick it sideways

[Mantis]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Really interesting to see the degree of optimism in the posts.

Pre-season I had this game as our MOST UNWINNABLE.

I guess the optimism shows both a degree of satisfaction in how we are travelling, but also a view that Geelong are not what they were.

I never tip against us but with the reduced break and travel, I just can't see us winning and think we will do well to get within about 35 points.

But didn't you also have us being 8-2 after 10 rounds??

If that's the case should we be really listening to you?

[stefoid]

Re: Round 9 Match Preview: Western Bulldogs vs Geelong

Disposal efficency is the least relevant stat in football.

If you get the ball in a pack and kick it forward to a contest, the disposal is ineffective.


DE% is mostly about how often you kick it sideways

I always thought it was short kicks to a contest that were counted as ineffective and long kicks were counted as OK, unless they went directly to the opposition.