When you are no good...you are no good!

[mjp]

I have been reading a lot of press lately about Carlton’s upward trend and how it is long overdue. The thing is, when you are no good, you are no good.

Bringing talent into a struggling side - young talent in particular - doesn’t help. Kids are talented but they haven’t developed their game...and beating up on other kids or less talented senior player s in match sim drills doesn’t prepare them for actual games against actual AFL players. So you can train and train and train but the level of ‘practice’ will never be high enough to match the development rate of other players who are part of more experienced and talented sides.

Teams down the bottom are often destined to stay there unless they:
1. Have a cultural breakthrough - president, ceo or coach led. (Dogs at end of 14, Lions end of 16, Cats 06 review etc).
2. Get a critical mass of talent within 12-months (before bad habits set in). (Maybe saints now).
3. Catch lightning in a bottle...then immediately return to the doldrums (Melbourne 2018).

Slow builds in the main simply DO NOT HAPPEN. Clubs (and coaches) are successful or they are doomed. And being doomed doesn’t mean someone can’t coach...it just means that they can’t coach AND lead cultural change...and the list of those who can is very short.

[1eyedog]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

So the many calls to sack Bevo a few weeks ago are short-sighted because he has proven he can combine the two and the list of candidates who could take over and do the same is very short?

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

That probably explain why the contending clubs can appear to seamlessly bring in new players, that contribute.

It also explains why so many top draft picks fail to develop as they are sacrificed to the underperformers.

[comrade]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

So what has prevented our cultural breakthrough from producing consistent success like the Cats (and I would argue the Hawks are in this bucket too)?

Since end of 2014, we had a meteoric rise and have plummeted back to Earth just as quickly. In a sense, we're just a more successful version of Melbourne.

[mjp]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

So the many calls to sack Bevo a few weeks ago are short-sighted because he has proven he can combine the two and the list of candidates who could take over and do the same is very short?

Well...we don't know if he did or he didn't. What we do know is he was part of it...as was Murphy, Gordon, Grant, Dale Morris, Matty Boyd...the core group of players in that team who had "had success" with back-to-back-to-back prelim finals is still massively under-rated in the 2014-2-2015 turnaround...we had players who KNEW what success looked like, what it FELT like, what it TRAINED like...how successful teams worked in the gym and on the track, how they did their rehab etc.

I don't really want to make this thread about Bevo. I guess what I am trying to say is if you are no good then you need to find a catalyst for MASSIVE change. For us in 2014 it was trading our captain...tell me one other club that would be prepared to do that and suffer the membership/supporter backlash to try and spark change?? (Don't say GC who are another case altogether).

[mjp]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

So what has prevented our cultural breakthrough from producing consistent success like the Cats (and I would argue the Hawks are in this bucket too)?

Since end of 2014, we had a meteoric rise and have plummeted back to Earth just as quickly. In a sense, we're just a more successful version of Melbourne.

What happened is we lost our leadership core. Boyd got badly concussed, Morris got injured, Murphy was returning from injury and battling his own body/brain whether to play again or not...then played and had responsibility heaped on him. Suckling tried desperately but had missed the GF and as a consequence lacked some credibility in the group. Hamling was a leader who had rode the rookie list/trade wave and then left...and the best players on the day (Morris aside) were young players (Boyd, JJ, Bont) with quite literally no idea how to handle it and no real senior players there to show the way...because Murphy, Boyd and Morris were all battling other issues...

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

Im confused is this good or bad for us given our current situation?

[GVGjr]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

I don't think recoveries are necessarily a slow thing if the people making the decisions make the right call on players.
I really think clubs are way too reluctant to make the hard calls and prefer the devil they know. That is what limits their recovery

[comrade]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

What happened is we lost our leadership core. Boyd got badly concussed, Morris got injured, Murphy was returning from injury and battling his own body/brain whether to play again or not...then played and had responsibility heaped on him. Suckling tried desperately but had missed the GF and as a consequence lacked some credibility in the group. Hamling was a leader who had rode the rookie list/trade wave and then left...and the best players on the day (Morris aside) were young players (Boyd, JJ, Bont) with quite literally no idea how to handle it and no real senior players there to show the way...because Murphy, Boyd and Morris were all battling other issues...

You can also add Picken to the lost leadership core.

So what happens now? Do we bring in players who have tasted success and have experience in a proven system (Burgoyne for example) or do we trade Bont ?

[GVGjr]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

What happened is we lost our leadership core. Boyd got badly concussed, Morris got injured, Murphy was returning from injury and battling his own body/brain whether to play again or not...then played and had responsibility heaped on him. Suckling tried desperately but had missed the GF and as a consequence lacked some credibility in the group. Hamling was a leader who had rode the rookie list/trade wave and then left...and the best players on the day (Morris aside) were young players (Boyd, JJ, Bont) with quite literally no idea how to handle it and no real senior players there to show the way...because Murphy, Boyd and Morris were all battling other issues...

To me, we misdiagnosed Tom Boyd's injury and had a gap year in 2017 allowing shitty and half arsed attitudes to prevail
Boyd and Cloke also both endured a level of bullying and we moved on it way too slowly.

That is what set us back and Bevo and his coaches were very slow to react. Momentum is a bitch to regain and we are still recovering.

A lot of players were never the same after 2016 and we drank out of the premiership cup for way too long

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

So.....does our young core that one the flag count as having the successful experience required to continue/regain success? Or were they too inexperienced to know what was actually required?

[Grantysghost]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

The Hawks went to the draft and rebuilt for a sustained period of success it can certainly be done. But they got Franklin, Hodge, Roughead, Lewis, Mitchell and built around that. They were pretty putrid in the Hay, Rawlings years.
Geelong were perennial second best until they got Bartel, Ling, Ablett, Corey, Enright, Chapman, Johnson, Scarlett around the same time and they came through together.
So it certainly can be done and when it is done well in conjunction with proper development it sets the stage for a period of success. Think the difference for us was it was a blend of old warriors and new stars so it’s a different path.

It’s rare to do what Cats and Hawks did for sure.

[mjp]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

I don't think recoveries are necessarily a slow thing if the people making the decisions make the right call on players.
I really think clubs are way too reluctant to make the hard calls and prefer the devil they know. That is what limits their recovery

I don't really disagree...the problem is that making the hard calls are "HARD" because often when you are no good the players holding you back are your BEST PLAYERS!

This thread really wasn't about the Bulldogs. It was triggered by me reading the Carlton stuff about it being 'a long time'...my point is that of course it is - because when you are no good, you are competing against yourself at training and further reinforcing bad habits and behaviours.

It is why so often you see a 'glut' of good players in one position on a list...because they are regularly competing against each other/observing one another at training...and equally why some teams can never get a good 'small forward' or whatever...

Last year West Coast had Rioli and Ryan...then suddenly Cameron comes in and is immediately kicking goals. No kidding - he is learning from these other guys EVERY DAY. Who is Weightman learning from at the dogs? I think in match sim he would be learning that the opposition defenders are pretty good and run away...and he is probably cheating to try and get a kick.

To me, Carlton should have been rid of Murphy and Gibbs 5+ years ago and loaded up to try and bring a 'core group' through...but you have to be careful doing this because 'someone' has to lead the way. I guess they had Simpson - but is he one to lead? (I genuinely have no idea). What I can say is Cripps is the best young leader I have ever come across and that has made me believe for a couple of years now that they would get it sorted out...

[GVGjr]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

I don't really disagree...the problem is that making the hard calls are "HARD" because often when you are no good the players holding you back are your BEST PLAYERS!

This thread really wasn't about the Bulldogs. It was triggered by me reading the Carlton stuff about it being 'a long time'...my point is that of course it is - because when you are no good, you are competing against yourself at training and further reinforcing bad habits and behaviours.

It is why so often you see a 'glut' of good players in one position on a list...because they are regularly competing against each other/observing one another at training...and equally why some teams can never get a good 'small forward' or whatever...

Last year West Coast had Rioli and Ryan...then suddenly Cameron comes in and is immediately kicking goals. No kidding - he is learning from these other guys EVERY DAY. Who is Weightman learning from at the dogs? I think in match sim he would be learning that the opposition defenders are pretty good and run away...and he is probably cheating to try and get a kick.

To me, Carlton should have been rid of Murphy and Gibbs 5+ years ago and loaded up to try and bring a 'core group' through...but you have to be careful doing this because 'someone' has to lead the way. I guess they had Simpson - but is he one to lead? (I genuinely have no idea). What I can say is Cripps is the best young leader I have ever come across and that has made me believe for a couple of years now that they would get it sorted out...

It was just 12 months or so on here that people were wanting the Suns to be disbanded because they were no good and yet now I think they've turned the corner based on some good decisions albeit with some AFL assistance with some draft concessions

This is why I don't think turnarounds are necessarily a mid to long term proposition. Clubs need to make an honest assessment of where they are now and map out a 3 year plan to get them where they need to be. It's going to hurt as you let some marginal players go and when you trade an ageing star or two for some unknown draft picks but nearly all clubs are guilty of not dealing with the challenges they face in a professional manner

I agree that Murphy and Gibbs should have been moved on a few years back making way for the next generation and building around Cripps.

Back to the Bulldogs for just a minute, we just can't fluff around for another season or two because having the likes of Bont, Macrae, Dunkley, Johannisen, Naughton, Smith and a number of others is what we need to be building around. We just can't squander the opportunity we have in front of us by being happy enough with 2016. This is why I get frustrated with our list retention and an almost weekly selection bingo. We owe it to this group to go further.

Clubs need to make the hard call on players if they want to be successful and as is evident by some of the stronger teams over the last few years there are a number of approaches that work.
Geelong have a top up approach that has been great but it's going to bite them, Adelaide have recruited poorly on top of some stupid coaching decisions and have crashed.
Richmond have made good decisions for 3 or 4 years now and have been super competitive and I'm jealous of the success they've enjoyed because it should or could have been us if we didn't take the foot off the accelerator in 2017. Richmond have let the marginal players go but went out and grabbed a big name player in Tom Lynch. West Coast have been West Coast and just keep being around the mark each year by making good decisions and being aggressive in attracting players to go home
Essendon are stuck in no mans land, they attract some players from other clubs but they aren't drafting that well. On top of that they maintain marginal players for too long

I think clubs can turn it around if they make the right calls

[mjp]

Re: When you are no good...you are no good!

It was just 12 months or so on here that people were wanting the Suns to be disbanded because they were no good and yet now I think they've turned the corner based on some good decisions albeit with some AFL assistance with some draft concessions

Things are never as good as you think or as bad as you fear. I have been insisting that GC have talent aplenty on their list for a long time now ('cos they do)...but beware the false dawn. Are they REALLY that different to the 2019 version of the Suns?

Essendon are stuck in no mans land, they attract some players from other clubs but they aren't drafting that well. On top of that they maintain marginal players for too long

Well - Essendon are a great example. It is like saying GC weren't drafting well because their kids weren't coming through...but is it a draft decision or development issue...and if it is development how much is coaching vs the environment the players are 'in' and the lessons they are learning from those around them. Again, if you are no good you are no good and they need to shed the likes of Zaharakis, Hooker, Hurley et al as well as get rid of a couple of so-called 'big fish' (yes, Zac Merrett, I am looking at you) because the problem with Essendon is their best players are not and never will be good enough...but we will never ever know about the next group down because they play subservient roles on game day.

Turnarounds can be achieved quickly...but you have to trigger change for there to be a turnaround. Tell me what change Essendon have ever really triggered? Moving Hird on allowed the 'club' (meaning staff) to move on from the cloak of the steroid program but it didn't change anything else...the same players are there - just older and less in love with the idea of playing footy...