BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

If we can trade back in to the first round this year after matching the bid, even if it means going in to deficit next year, why wouldn't we?

AFL Draft Rules.

I’d have to read the rules after Sydney trades out and in. But I recall the AFL tightened up. But leave that aside, the bigger issue is the Draft Point deficit rules. Unless there’s been a huge change. On the scenario the BF poster said these are my thoughts.

- The maximum deficit allowed by the AFL Draft Rules is 1,723 Draft Points (Rounds 1-4 on the Premiers Pick)
- If you trade out your first that number gets reduced by 985 Points, the Round 1 Pick
- So now our deficit ability is 738 Draft Points
- Let’s say Darcy goes at Pick 1. That means we need to stump up 2,400 points.
- Having traded out this year’s first rounder, per the scenario, we only have Pick 73, or 19 Draft Points

- So the deficit is 2,381 Draft Points
- Our allowable limit is 738 Draft Points
- The scenario is 1,643 Draft Points short (= Pick 7)
- The AFL will not allow it.


As far as I understand Draft Point deficits is if you trade out any future pick the maximum deficit of 1,723 is reduced by the Round Pick worth of points. Even if you could in theory swap things around, Darcy’s Draft Points are far, far, far too large. The BF poster suggests a future second and third will cover drafting a kid with Pick 1-3. Unless there’s more I’m not seeing, or rule changes I’m not aware of, I don’t see anything to it whatsoever.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

There’s a lot to unpack. I’m skeptical on a fair bit of it.

From memory Sydney and West Coast did something something similar the first year of live trading when a bid for Nick Blakey hadn't come by pick 4. I think Sydney traded their pick with West Coast and then traded back a bit later so they could match pick 10.
I thought the AFL closed that loophole.

I'll have a look a bit later but don't they value future picks at the end of the round?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

From memory Sydney and West Coast did something something similar the first year of live trading when a bid for Nick Blakey hadn't come by pick 4. I think Sydney traded their pick with West Coast and then traded back a bit later so they could match pick 10.
I thought the AFL closed that loophole.

I'll have a look a bit later but don't they value future picks at the end of the round?

They did ban it after Sydney. Not sure if the BF poster knows of another loophole currently. The picks for deficit maximum purpose are 18, 36, 54 & 72. Unless things have changed, if you trade out picks they are subtracted from the maximum deficit allowed. The BF poster was essentially saying (from the cut and paste) that we would draft Darcy with a top 3 pick and use a late second and third rounder next year. That’s only works if Darcy slides to about Pick 50…

[Bornadog]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

I don't want to give up next years pick 1, so we need to find another way to get points.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

I don't want to give up next years pick 1, so we need to find another way to get points.

Probably three players of value need to be traded is the only other way. I’m with you on the 2022 pick. Last year the rules were almost thrown out. This year not so. We might have to go into deficit if the choice was say keeping Richards and running a deficit or allowing a trade to keep the 2022 first. Richards makes us better now. As I’m writing this, it might need to be four players. It’s exciting having dibs on Darcy, but the reality of making it happen is not as exciting. But this is what the rules are for, if you want high end priority access you have to give up players to rest of the competition.

How we attract a good ruckman or KPD in a trade becomes very hard without the future first. I think Sam Power is going to have his hardest LM period yet. Easily.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

My latest thoughts with Darcy going to smash us in Draft Points. He’s said he’s a forward/ruck. Assuming the club agrees.

If we distill our main needs into just two trades: Ruck & KPD.

But depending on things, say we have out future first to acquire a ruckman. That leaves this good ruckman, Tim playing ruck/fwd, Sweet the next pure ruck, and Darcy the forward/ruck who wouldn’t be impacting a lot next year anyway. That’s a solid strengthening of the ruck and also forward.

Of the forward, there’s Timmy, Bruce, Naughton & Jamarra with Darcy as 5 KPF’s. So where I’m going to is Josh Schache. He’s surplus to need, but the problem is his trade value wouldn’t be much if the trade period was right now. So if he’s not going to materially change the Draft Point equation, then despite the questions on intensity he might be the best chance at dealing with our other key need, KPD. I’m not going to say it works perfectly, not at all. But Darcy’s rise will probably ensure 3-4 players move on to assist with points. Our only possible chip (should we have it in tact) is trading the Future First for a good Ruck (which makes us better next season). But now the cupboard is bare on a new KPD as Free Agents are uninspiring. Everything relies on Keath not being injured, Gardner has suffered injuries, Cordy is limited and Young looks destined to go. All that said, desperate times call for desperate measures. Unless an extra decent player is traded to facilitate a KPD trade, we need to get creative. Schache to defence is looking our best shot. But if a coach can make a big move, Bevo has shown for the most part he can (Naughton, Daniel, Dale, JJ etc, etc). Even if the club wanted to have Darcy be a defender (although he’s only played a couple of handful of games as a defender), at 75kg or so he’s not going to be making a big impact for some time.

If we can only address one need, I say ruck. Schache with a lot of elite attributes, and yes questions, for either a nothing draft pick or move to defence next year? I say keep him and see what happens in defence next year.

Sam Darcy going top three, has wider ramifications. Unless a good player is poached (The Age reports Richards has multiple clubs interested) and hopefully they aren’t, we may have to address one need with the future first and do our best with the other. My first draft in the OP was based on Pick 5. If the bid goes higher to 3 or higher, then it’s more complex.


Math:

With Lippa (Pick 42) and Wally (Pick 54), not much of anything for Young, and Draft Points trades, Darcy at Pick 3 takes ALL those Draft Points. That leaves the Future First for a player trade. It also means if we wanted Raak, he’d need to be there at Pick 41+ to get for free with out next selection. But Pick 1 or 2 with 300-800 more Draft Points needed is harder.

[FrediKanoute]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

If Schache is worth nothing and has never played as a defender, why would we trade/delist Young who is worh nothin? Surely we are better off keeping young as insurance. We know he can play as a defender.

I agree Lippa is probably gone and where Wally ends up will depend on what happens over the next few weeks. Is Crozier/JJ the trade bait we need from some additional 3rd/4h round picks?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

If Schache is worth nothing and has never played as a defender, why would we trade/delist Young who is worh nothin? Surely we are better off keeping young as insurance. We know he can play as a defender.

I agree Lippa is probably gone and where Wally ends up will depend on what happens over the next few weeks. Is Crozier/JJ the trade bait we need from some additional 3rd/4h round picks?

Good points.

If we won’t select Young, I think it’s near pointless to tie up a list spot. From his perspective, why would he want to stay? Especially if another club says they’ll pick him if he’s doing what he’s been doing. That’s my concern. Schache has a contract for next year. We can trade him for not much, leave him as a forward where he plays at VFL or try something else. I’d happily trade him as I don’t think it’s best for him to be the 5th best KPF option next year, but I really don’t see a pick that makes it worthwhile.

I think you’re right on Croz & JJ. I’m reticent to mention names as Jeemak won’t let it go if he likes them . If the club keeps Richards and thinks Khamis & Butler are long term propositions, with Wood & Doc next year, then Crozier is a potentially good trade option. With JJ if we can cover him from Weightman, VDM, McNeil & Scott plus drafting a small forward (Naughton & Jamarra very quick and high pressure players).

Both players have sexy highlight reels for clubs to sell to their members. The other side is both players combined would be worth about $900,000-$1,000,000 based on averages. That would be a significant opening in our TPP on top of what we have open.

Our parameters for who we could trade would be interesting. Any why some extensions haven’t been done yet.


Edit:

All 17 clubs know where Sam Darcy will likely land and also know we only have one late first rounder of any decent Draft Points. So all 17 clubs know we NEED to trade multiple players in a matter of months. That makes us a target. I think a lot of our players managers will soon get, or have already gotten, feelers about trades to their respective clubs. So we should expect a fair bit of media attention about potential trades

[mjp]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

Why would ANY other club want:

Young
Crozier
Schache
Wallis

They are all playing reserves right now and whilst Schache is going 'WELL' it isn't like his performances in the seniors over the past two seasons scream anything more than 'rookie selection'.

Any smart recruiter would realise that players who are in the reserves at one club will probably end up in the reserves at their NEXT club...good players make their way onto the field (there are now 23 spots available every week). To get good players you need to give up good players...I am curious who everyone would be prepared to give up out of our top 12-15?

Bont
Naughton
Macrae
Liber
Smith
Treloar
English
Daniel
Williams
Keith
Bruce
Hunter
Dunks
Weightman
Richards
...
Jamarra

Anyone else who might have 'REAL' currency?

[comrade]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

Why would ANY other club want:

Young
Crozier
Schache
Wallis

They are all playing reserves right now and whilst Schache is going 'WELL' it isn't like his performances in the seniors over the past two seasons scream anything more than 'rookie selection'.

Any smart recruiter would realise that players who are in the reserves at one club will probably end up in the reserves at their NEXT club...good players make their way onto the field (there are now 23 spots available every week). To get good players you need to give up good players...I am curious who everyone would be prepared to give up out of our top 12-15?

Bont
Naughton
Macrae
Liber
Smith
Treloar
English
Daniel
Williams
Keith
Bruce
Hunter
Dunks
Weightman
Richards
...
Jamarra

Anyone else who might have 'REAL' currency?

Of those listed, I'd listen to offers on Bruce (of course), Bazlenka (would have to be massive), Williams (would have to be bloody good) and Richards (would have to be pretty good).

[Mofra]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

Of those listed, I'd listen to offers on Bruce (of course), Bazlenka (would have to be massive), Williams (would have to be bloody good) and Richards (would have to be pretty good).

I wouldn't.
Trading out a 'certainly' for 'maybe' is fraught with danger. I'd rather we keep our group together and add steak knives where we can find them (or FAs where possible). We're in the position where last year, this year and potentially next year (Croft) we can add elite kids to a finals standard team. That's outstanding.

Back to points - Gold Coast have a truckload of picks and a young team so they'd be unlikely to look at bringing in a bunch of late pick kids. They currently hold 3,19, 22, 43, 55, 58 & 63 for a total of 4,894 points (the most in the competition).

20 year old KPD Caleb Graham has just been dropped and is OOC. Young, raw, can mark. Has pinch hit in the ruck (so Bevo would love him). I'd be in his ear and have our first rounder on the table for Graham + late picks. Has played 2nd/3rd KPD and been thrown into the ruck when the Suns had nobody.

Second point - there are a lot of scenarios flying around about trading a future first for picks this year, as it may be diluted anyway.

Well, here's a counter point - trading out our future 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for points this year. We can gain enough points to match a Sam Darcy bid + pocket change for Raak/McPherson, and protect our first round pick next year.
I know we all want a ruck but there just aren't many around. If we really want a 'break glass' ruck - look at the state leagues or FA Archie Smith for depth. If we want mature KPD cover - Sam Day has played 4 games (forward) and is a FA too.

[Happy Days]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

I wouldn't.
Trading out a 'certainly' for 'maybe' is fraught with danger. I'd rather we keep our group together and add steak knives where we can find them (or FAs where possible). We're in the position where last year, this year and potentially next year (Croft) we can add elite kids to a finals standard team. That's outstanding.

Back to points - Gold Coast have a truckload of picks and a young team so they'd be unlikely to look at bringing in a bunch of late pick kids. They currently hold 3,19, 22, 43, 55, 58 & 63 for a total of 4,894 points (the most in the competition).

20 year old KPD Sam Burgess has just been dropped and is OOC. Young, raw, can mark. Has pinch hit in the ruck (so Bevo would love him). I'd be in his ear and have our first rounder on the table for Burgess + late picks. Has played 2nd/3rd KPD and been thrown into the ruck when the Suns had nobody.

Second point - there are a lot of scenarios flying around about trading a future first for picks this year, as it may be diluted anyway.

Well, here's a counter point - trading out our future 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks for points this year. We can gain enough points to match a Sam Darcy bid + pocket change for Raak/McPherson, and protect our first round pick next year.
I know we all want a ruck but there just aren't many around. If we really want a 'break glass' ruck - look at the state leagues or FA Archie Smith for depth. If we want mature KPD cover - Sam Day has played 4 games (forward) and is a FA too.

Sam Burgess? Do you mean Chris Burgess, who is 25 and terrible? No thanks.

I vote that we keep every single player MJP listed. Why would we want to trade anyone, its a cohesive group rich in both talent and upside that appears to have only just harnessed their chemistry and should be very good for at least 5-6 more seasons?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

Why would ANY other club want:

Young
Crozier
Schache
Wallis

They are all playing reserves right now and whilst Schache is going 'WELL' it isn't like his performances in the seniors over the past two seasons scream anything more than 'rookie selection'.

Any smart recruiter would realise that players who are in the reserves at one club will probably end up in the reserves at their NEXT club...good players make their way onto the field (there are now 23 spots available every week). To get good players you need to give up good players...I am curious who everyone would be prepared to give up out of our top 12-15?

Bont
Naughton
Macrae
Liber
Smith
Treloar
English
Daniel
Williams
Keith
Bruce
Hunter
Dunks
Weightman
Richards
...
Jamarra

Anyone else who might have 'REAL' currency?

I agree on Young & Schache per my ports. Wallis may have interest as a Free Agent. Crozier may have some interest. I think the question is a little narrow.

I think there’s a scenario where’s there’s deficit in 2022. Then the question is who of currency could we trade? Then it’s so we want a future first whose an unknown quantity, or do we keep a Smith or Richards who make us better now. In that case I wouldn’t trade them with the hope that the lost first is Pick 18.

The other similar question is if that happens and we go into deficit and with no trades to address the ruck or KPD. But we have a line on a very good player filling a need. Then in that case the question is more interesting. If we needed to trade a good player to get a good player addressing a need, then realistically Richards & Smith would have the currency to make it happen. But the incoming player needs to be a good one.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

Sam Burgess? Do you mean Chris Burgess, who is 25 and terrible? No thanks.

I vote that we keep every single player MJP listed. Why would we want to trade anyone, its a cohesive group rich in both talent and upside that appears to have only just harnessed their chemistry and should be very good for at least 5-6 more seasons?

I actually meant Caleb Graham who has been dropped this week (I got that name badly wrong).
Suns have Lukosius, Collins and Ballard ahead of him so he may well be 'gettable'

[Happy Days]

Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

I actually meant Caleb Graham who has been dropped this week (I got that name badly wrong).
Suns have Lukosius, Collins and Ballard ahead of him so he may well be 'gettable'

Ah. I haven’t really seen much out of Graham that has me enthused either to be honest, but he also hasn’t exactly been put in a position to thrive either.