BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

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  • The Doctor
    Coaching Staff
    • Jan 2007
    • 3709

    #46
    Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

    If we felt Sam Darcy would make it through to pick 3 or later I think we could still find a way to keep our first rounder out of the Darcy trade scenario in some way.


    The deals to make it happen

    1. Bulldogs trade future 2nd round to Richmond for picks 42 & 48.

    This brings in 697 points

    Selling point to Richmond is they already have 4 juicy picks in the top 30 of the draft this year with possibly more coming if they were to lose some of their uncontracted players. A future 2nd will give them 3 picks in the first 2 rounds in 2022. It helps them replace their ageing stars.

    2. Trade Lipinski to Sydney Swans for pick 32

    This brings in 584 points

    Sydney are reportedly chasing Lipinski and they don't have much else to trade that would appeal to us. Lipinski would be playing regularly at most other clubs.

    3. Trade Rhylee West to Gold Coast for pick 43

    This brings in 378 points

    Gold Coast have recently been linked with West. I wouldn't like to lose him but if he wants more opportunity then we shouldn't stand in his way. Gold Coast have a lot of draft picks. Do they want to get more skinny kids in? They might be willing to stump up a mid range pick.

    Total points secured from these 3 trades = 1659

    a bid at pick 3 would require us to hand over 1788 points. so we would still have to make up 129 points which we can either go into deficit for or simply try and on trade say pick 32 to make up the difference.



    Then

    we trade our 1st round pick this year for a similar future 1st next year

    With 2 first rounders in 2022 that gives us the currency we need to acquire a decent player of need either through trading or in the draft next year. Or trade back into the first round or early 2nd round this year.


    Net Result if a bid comes in at pick 3 or later is

    In: Sam Darcy & future 1st round pick

    Out: Lipinski, West, 2021 1st round pick, & future 2nd round pick

    swap of 1st rounders 2021 for 2022.


    If Darcy was to go in the first 2 picks then that's a different ball game.
    Listening to Brahm's 3rd Racket

    Comment

    • Bornadog
      WOOF Clubhouse Leader
      • Jan 2007
      • 67687

      #47
      Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

      I like that Doc
      FFC: Established 1883

      Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

      Comment

      • bulldogtragic
        The List Manager
        • Jan 2007
        • 34289

        #48
        Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

        I like the theory Doc, great post. But I’m a little hesitant on why Richmond would do it, unless it was a part of a larger trade (like Treloar last year: ie. Nankervis and Pick 42 & 48 - for - 2021 First, 2022 Second). What he hope is Pick 36 next year for Picks 42 & 48 this year seems overs for us. I’ll take it, just seems too far our way. Lippa could be a higher than expected price, hopefully he does. I’m unsure why GCS would offer us a decent pick for a bloke who can barely get a game.

        That aside, even if it’s many hundreds of points short, we should trade someone else out and bite the bullet. The theory of having available for trade 2 x First Rounders and Sam Darcy is enticing. It leaves us a little short in the middle of three successive drafts though. Those nearly 1,800 points without holding a First Rounder at the time of the bid at Pick 3 I think will need us having to part with a fair bit more. It’s aggressive, but that’s not a bad thing.
        Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

        Comment

        • Bulldog Joe
          Premiership Moderator
          • Jul 2009
          • 5627

          #49
          Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

          Originally posted by Happy Days
          Sam Burgess? Do you mean Chris Burgess, who is 25 and terrible? No thanks.

          I vote that we keep every single player MJP listed. Why would we want to trade anyone, its a cohesive group rich in both talent and upside that appears to have only just harnessed their chemistry and should be very good for at least 5-6 more seasons?
          The difficulty is that we are required to make changes and list renewal is constant.

          Clearly we need to manufacture points for Darcy and I am pretty certain nobody is in favour of letting him go to another club.

          Mofra suggests pick swaps around our future picks, but then we might need the points again for our next father-son.

          The list is looking good, with some deficiencies in KPD and Ruck. However trying to keep everyone leads to stagnation.

          The challenge is to trade out someone that will provide the currency we need, but be covered by players we keep.

          We are strong with half backs due to the emergence of Bailey Dale.

          Can we play all of Daniel/Dale/Richards/Williams together.

          Perhaps one of those can go for trade currency and not really weaken the team.
          Life is to be Enjoyed not Endured

          Comment

          • bulldogtragic
            The List Manager
            • Jan 2007
            • 34289

            #50
            Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

            Originally posted by bulldogtragic
            Worst case scenario on Sam Darcy being Pick 1. A quick look:

            3,000 Draft Points, less 20% = 2,400 Draft Points

            Indicative Draft Order:

            Pick 17 (1,025 DPs) & 72 (19 DPs)

            Trade/FA Picks: Lipinski Pick 42 (395 DPs) & Mitch Wallis 54 (220 DPs)

            Trade Pick 17 to Richmond for Pick 24 (785 DPs) & Pick 40 (429 DPs) - Net Extra 189 Draft Points (as an example)

            Taken Into Draft: Picks 24, 40, 42 & 54 - 1,829 Draft Points - Still 571 (= Pick 32) Draft Points Short

            Option: Trade 2022 First Rounder to GCS for their later Second Rounder Pick 22 this year. Brings in 845 Draft Points this year. Gives us 274 Draft Points surplus. Pick 50 for use or traded depending if there’s interest on Raak after Pick 41.

            Result:

            In: Darcy, Raak if wanted, one live pick if wanted, three upgrades
            Out: 2021 First, 2022 First, Lipinski, Wallis

            (Alternate: Is to run a deficit, which would reduce our First Rounder to about Pick 40. Much a muchness)

            However, if a decent player requests a trade out of the club worthy of at least Pick 32. That could mean we could leave the 2022 First Rounder out of it.

            Also, means getting a mature ruck of KPD is unlikely, unless there’s a free agent or unless a trade happens like above and the 2022 First Rounder can then be used the secure a target.


            It’s a good problem to have. But we need to move on multiple players and multiple picks. There’s no way around it if he goes that high. We just don’t have the points with no Second or Third Rounders.
            .........

            Today/last night:

            Beveridge told 3AW Darcy might get bid on with the No.1 overall pick.

            “He might and it was interesting last year with “Marra”, ultimately he gets the NAB portfolio, he gets the cash reward, he gets the recognition, with the club in Adelaide which nominated him and Riley Thilthorpe misses out on that,” he said.

            “Personally if you know the Dogs are going to take him and you have the No 1 pick, wouldn’t you want your lad who is coming in to get that and let your lad have that even though you want to make us pay. There are not that many vindictive list managers and recruiters in the comp.”

            .........

            I think it’s safest to do the math on needing 2,400 Draft Points, if he slides a Pick or two we’ve got points for Raak (if wanted) or a later pick to use or trade. But unless those comments from Bevo are taken out of context, Pick 1 isn’t out of the question. If you stick with this possibility, with pick limitations taken into the draft (relative to vacancies), the solution seems to be trading the 2022 First for hopefully Pick 19 off GCS (their compo pick). Or, if we can’t convince Richards to stay with us, the silver lining is that’s enough points to avoid trading the 2022 First just for current points.

            As Bevo said, we are taking him. How we afford it, is getting harder and harder. But I guess that’s what the rules are intended to do. You’re not meant to play finals two years running and get Pick 1 both years too.
            Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

            Comment

            • bulldogtragic
              The List Manager
              • Jan 2007
              • 34289

              #51
              Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

              As an aside. Not one mentioning of Dunkley as a way of getting serious points, despite Bains saying he expects clubs to come for him. We are clearly comfortable Josh is staying put.
              Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

              Comment

              • Hotdog60
                Bulldog Team of the Century
                • Aug 2009
                • 6011

                #52
                Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                I was reading an article by Dunks and in one of his snippets he said:"Last year happened the way that it did, and while you can't really change any of that, for me, I know I've now had some really healthy conversations with everyone involved at the footy club about my future. I'm happy and I feel really settled at the Bulldogs." direct quote so I think unless he is just dribbling looks like he will be around.
                Don't piss off old people
                The older we get the less "LIFE IN PRISON" is a deterrent...

                Comment

                • jeemak
                  Bulldog Legend
                  • Oct 2010
                  • 22147

                  #53
                  Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                  Originally posted by bulldogtragic
                  As an aside. Not one mentioning of Dunkley as a way of getting serious points, despite Bains saying he expects clubs to come for him. We are clearly comfortable Josh is staying put.
                  I haven't decided if I want the forum to meltdown again, yet...........
                  TF is this?.........Obviously you're not a golfer.

                  Comment

                  • Bulldog4life
                    WOOF Member
                    • Oct 2007
                    • 9607

                    #54
                    Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                    Originally posted by bulldogtragic
                    .........

                    Today/last night:

                    Beveridge told 3AW Darcy might get bid on with the No.1 overall pick.

                    “He might and it was interesting last year with “Marra”, ultimately he gets the NAB portfolio, he gets the cash reward, he gets the recognition, with the club in Adelaide which nominated him and Riley Thilthorpe misses out on that,” he said.

                    “Personally if you know the Dogs are going to take him and you have the No 1 pick, wouldn’t you want your lad who is coming in to get that and let your lad have that even though you want to make us pay. There are not that many vindictive list managers and recruiters in the comp.”

                    .........

                    I think it’s safest to do the math on needing 2,400 Draft Points, if he slides a Pick or two we’ve got points for Raak (if wanted) or a later pick to use or trade. But unless those comments from Bevo are taken out of context, Pick 1 isn’t out of the question. If you stick with this possibility, with pick limitations taken into the draft (relative to vacancies), the solution seems to be trading the 2022 First for hopefully Pick 19 off GCS (their compo pick). Or, if we can’t convince Richards to stay with us, the silver lining is that’s enough points to avoid trading the 2022 First just for current points.

                    As Bevo said, we are taking him. How we afford it, is getting harder and harder. But I guess that’s what the rules are intended to do. You’re not meant to play finals two years running and get Pick 1 both years too.
                    Well we know now that Adelaide's List Manager is a vindictive soul. Well said Bevo.

                    Comment

                    • GVGjr
                      Moderator
                      • Nov 2006
                      • 45520

                      #55
                      Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                      Originally posted by mjp
                      Why would ANY other club want:

                      Young
                      Crozier
                      Schache
                      Wallis

                      They are all playing reserves right now and whilst Schache is going 'WELL' it isn't like his performances in the seniors over the past two seasons scream anything more than 'rookie selection'.

                      Any smart recruiter would realise that players who are in the reserves at one club will probably end up in the reserves at their NEXT club...good players make their way onto the field (there are now 23 spots available every week). To get good players you need to give up good players...I am curious who everyone would be prepared to give up out of our top 12-15?

                      Bont
                      Naughton
                      Macrae
                      Liber
                      Smith
                      Treloar
                      English
                      Daniel
                      Williams
                      Keith
                      Bruce
                      Hunter
                      Dunks
                      Weightman
                      Richards
                      ...
                      Jamarra

                      Anyone else who might have 'REAL' currency?
                      I think most players could be made available for an overs offer.
                      To gain some real currency I would consider exceptionally good offers for Daniel, Williams, Hunter, Weightman and McLean (not listed above) I doubt it's likely to happen though.
                      Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

                      Comment

                      • Mofra
                        Hall of Fame
                        • Dec 2006
                        • 15112

                        #56
                        Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                        I feel like there is an intangible quality in keeping the list together rather than just trading like a maniac to find 1% advantage. Espirit de corps and morale are more important than talent.
                        Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

                        Comment

                        • boydogs
                          WOOF Member
                          • Apr 2009
                          • 5845

                          #57
                          Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                          Originally posted by Mofra
                          I feel like there is an intangible quality in keeping the list together rather than just trading like a maniac to find 1% advantage. Espirit de corps and morale are more important than talent.
                          Take your point but do we really let the number 1 pick walk?
                          If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.

                          Formerly gogriff

                          Comment

                          • Mofra
                            Hall of Fame
                            • Dec 2006
                            • 15112

                            #58
                            Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                            Originally posted by boydogs
                            Take your point but do we really let the number 1 pick walk?
                            No. How on earth did you get that out of my post?
                            Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

                            Comment

                            • Ghost Dog
                              WOOF Member
                              • May 2010
                              • 9404

                              #59
                              Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                              Originally posted by Mofra
                              Nice work, plenty of food for discussion.
                              Should note that McNeill is set to be upgraded to the main list on the back of his recent two year deal, which reduces our list spot by one.
                              Ed I suspect Bevo will go into bat for to keep.

                              I think we hunt for a mature ruck again, as we have most years of Bevo's tenure. Not a lot out there so we may look at FAs.
                              I suspect we want a late pick to find a hidden small forward gem too.
                              Any suggestions for the ruck position?

                              With respect, I disagree with the overall theme on Wallis. Bevo came out publicly to praise him.
                              He's a good player, can kick goals and I think Bevo will keep him.
                              You don't develop courage by being happy in your relationships every day. You develop it by surviving difficult times and challenging adversity. ― Epicurus

                              Comment

                              • boydogs
                                WOOF Member
                                • Apr 2009
                                • 5845

                                #60
                                Re: BT's First Draft: 2021 List Management Essay

                                Originally posted by Mofra
                                No. How on earth did you get that out of my post?
                                We need to trade like maniacs to get the draft points we need for Sam Darcy

                                If we need to trade Lipinski, Schache and Wallis to get him, would you do it or is too damaging?
                                If you kicked five goals and Tom Boyd kicked five goals, Tom Boyd kicked more goals than you.

                                Formerly gogriff

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